[high floorParticipant]

Just how good of a player are we talking about here?? I mean this guy can lull you with a yo-yo handle & pull up, blow by his man 1 on 1 and hit you with the scoop shot, rebound his own miss and CRAM on an entire front line, shoot threes from all over the arc, get to the FT stripe…….. etc. This list goes on and on.

Are we talking about a potential repeat 1st team all nba phenom? If yes, how soon? Perhaps within just a few years? I just can’t believe how versatile his game has become…. and this doesn’t even include his already decent / good defensive abilities. Which he admitedly enjoys playing. 

So just how good can this guy be?

 

 

[ChrispyParticipant]

His attitude + skills = Superstar. I’m calling it now. 5+ all-star games, multiple 25 pt seasons. Career arc…hmmm. Maybe a more effecient Dame Dolla? With better post-season success, too? 

I’m sold.

 

[2quick4uParticipant]

5 all-star games¿? 

next year he’ll be 22 and will already be an all-star so do the math…

 

[ChrispyParticipant]

 Re-read my post, please. 5 + . So, a minimum of 5. I also called him a future Superstar, so yeah, I expect him to make more, but caution is the better part of valor…

[2quick4uParticipant]

 even with that "+" it sounds short to me; if he stays healthy it should be more like 10+

[cargathusParticipant]

I don’t want to jinx him but I think his ceiling could be a shorter prime DWade with a better jumper but not as good at getting to the FT line and worse at rebounding. He’s already a better shooter than Dwade ever was but DWade had a little bit more size. They are both a little undersized for SG with an extremely long wingspan which they both use to their advantage both offensively and defensively. I know its a bit of a stretch comparing a rookie to a top 5 SG of all time but the way they took the reins of a playoff team in their rookie seasons to bring them to the second round to face the best teams record wise in the NBA (after 2 year stints in college) is quite similar. I remember watching Dwade as a rookie blowing my mind in the playoffs and now Dmitch is envoking those same reactions. 

[r377Participant]

 

I was actually going to write a topic on this.  As good as he has been, im not sure goes to elite nba HOF status.

 

 

 

Averaging 21-4-4 as a rookie with pretty average or less than average shooting.  I can’t see him scoring anymore than 25 per game.

 

 

 

I think maybe he ups his assists and rebs a bit.  Maybe a peak of 25-5-7 but I think he will prob be around 18 to 22ppg, 4 reb and 6 to 7 assists for the short term.

 

 

 

I don’t think he will have a massive peak from his rookie season, it will prob stay around those figures for a few seasons, with maybe a decline.

 

 

 

Remember the Jazz don’t have a true go to offensive scorer.  If they scored a Jabari Parker / Paul George / Tobias Harris type of scorer, Mitchell will prob be 16-20ppg. He currently has Rudy, Favors, Ingles and Rubio. Ingles can score but is more well rounded with assists, the other 3 have never been known for being big time scorers.

 

 

 

Heaps of players don’t continue to their elite path.  Tyreke Evans (20-5-6), Laettner (18ppg), MCW (17-6-6) come to mind.  I know a lot of captain hindsights will laugh at MCW but remember he would put up triple doubles and heaps of users were on his cock at one point – they prob just won’t own up to it…

 

[2quick4uParticipant]

 you’re funny but lets be serious here..

1st you say that he has "pretty average or less than average shooting", when this young man is scoring almost 21pts as a rookie, with a 43.7% (50,2% 2P%) but shooting 7 triples a game, while being already the franchise player and the 1st scoring option, taking total charge of the team’s offense and even being double teamed half of the plays..and all that while turning the ball over only 2,7 times a game..did i say he’s a rookie? Mitchell actually screams efficiency all over him..

2nd you say that Utah doesn’t have a "true go to offensive scorer"..well it seems that 21pts/g in regular season and 26 in playoffs for a rookie while winning 48 regular season games and sending home the last season’s MVP and his big 3 doesn’t seem enough..

finally you compare him with players like Tyreke Evans or MCW, when Mitchell has already won more games than those other 2 combined in their rookie year.

funny but not serious.

 

[r377Participant]

 

Nice trolling. Shooting 43% and 34% is hardly great shooting. If you watched him in college you would see he is not a “great or elite shooter”.

 

 

 

Utah won 51 games last season and 48 games this season so it’s hardly a great achievement to “win games” playing for a 51 win team.

 

 

 

It’s also very easy to knock other peoples comments when you don’t actually put up any predictions yourself

 

[whiteflashParticipant]

 Dude, do you even watch basketball? What does his college shooting have to do with how well he’s played this year?

That was a 51 win team that lost its best player and was predicted to be out of the playoffs. 

You’re either trolling or actually don’t watch basketball. 

 

 

[r377Participant]

 

He wasn’t a very good 3 point shooter in college. I’m sorry but if this kid has been shooting hoops his entire life, he is not going to turn into Ray Allen in just 8-9 months by having an “NBA trainer”.

 

 

 

Hayward was their leading scorer. Joe Ingles and Rodney Hood were expected to step up and take his minutes.  Ingles is quite good and a lot of us thought Hood would average 15-18ppg.  They are not going to lose more than 10 games by not having Hayward.  They were predicted to win around 41-45 games and compete for a playoff spot.

 

[2quick4uParticipant]

"It’s also very easy to knock other peoples comments when you don’t actually put up any predictions yourself".

actually i’ve been one of the very few people in this site that has been preaching since last summer already, that Utah would make the playoffs even without Hayward and also preaching for the last 4 months that Mitchell deserves the ROY not because Simmons is not a real rookie, but because his season has been absolutely historical and has been breaking record after record.

.Right after Hayward’s trade last summer, i even made a post saying he was making a mistake going to Boston, because Utah had everything he needed to contend for title in 3 years: http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/haywards-mistake

.Last summer and way before season started, i also made a post of "my playoff picture" and i had Utah finishing 6th in the west (even without Hayward); i also had a little comment on Mitchell already..: http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/west-conf-playoff-picture

back then right after the draft, i also made a post about my "all time freaks" list based on official measurements from draft combined; i had several lists like all time 7feet freaks, 6’&under or "in between" freaks (that is from 6’1 to 6’11), and guess whom was on top of my all time "in between freaks" list…i already stated that his numbers were absurd and that he was longer, faster and more athletic than any other super freak guards like D.rose, Wall or Westbrook…:http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/all-time-freaks

.Talking about prediction, back in september someone made a post about "hot takes"; i made 5, but look at the nº2: http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/hot-takes#comment-821180

.Talking about Mitchell, back in january i made a post about my "NBA mid-season report" and i already had Mitchell as my ROY: http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/nba-mid-season-report2-players

and since then, i’ve been defending Mitchell as the ROY through thick and thin, as this site has Simmons as a demi-god, although it seems now people are jumping to Mitchell’s wagon…here some of my post defending Mitchell and showing not just with subjetive opinion but with proofs, the unique historical season he’s having: 

. http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/markelle-fultz-vs-donovan-mitchell#comment-830311

. http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/will-we-see-co-roy-first-time-2000#comment-830088

. http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/who-do-you-think-should-be-rookie-year#comment-828945

. And finally, talking about predicting Mitchell’s career, here i talk again about his historical season and what i think about him and the type of player he is, that is, a once in a generation player…: http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/markelle-fultz-vs-donovan-mitchell#comment-830358

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[whiteflashParticipant]

 I agree with most of what you wrote, just want to point out that Mitchell completely sandbagged his standing reach to inflate his vert numbers. It is physically impossible to be 6’3", have a 6’10" wingspan but only an 8’1" standing reach. You can go ahead and add about 5" to his reach and subtract 5" from his vert.

[r377Participant]

 

“Once in a generation player”    LOL are you serious ?

 

 

 

A generation is approx 30 years, so our generation of the past 30 years you are talking Lebron and Jordan.  Before that it was Dr J, Magic, Bird, Kareem and Wilt.

 

 

 

Are you really comparing him to these guys ?

 

[jjj10manParticipant]

Shorter Kawhi

[kobyzParticipant]

 6’3" MJ…

[Ahkasi ClayParticipant]

 A smaller, better shooting Kobe.

[MachettiParticipant]

 I feel this hype is reminiscent of Tyreke Evans rook year, when he averages 20, 5 and 5. He’s getting overhyped because he’s the new flavor of the year. I see a more polished Eric Bledsoe tbh. Dons a good story but I don’t think his stats are going to drastically go up. A 20 point per game scorer is impressive already and it might get bumped up a couple more points in the coming years. What I do like is his intagibles and IQ! He seems like he has a good head on his shoulders. He’s got a winners mentality and makes his team better. That’s evident in just his first year. 

[Dazzling Dunks and Basketball BloopersParticipant]

Evans put up big numbers on a bad team. Mitchell is carrying a playoff team offensively. Not even close to the same situation.

[whiteflashParticipant]

 The comparisons to Tyreke Evans and MCW are insane. This is a kid who wasn’t sure he’d be drafted, blew the doors off of every workout and interview, was selected with the last pick in the lottery by a team that was expected to finish WAY outside of the playoffs, stepped in and IMMEDIATELY became the face of the franchise and the team’s best player, while also being the focal point of EVERY opposing team’s defense and leading them to the 2nd round where it looks like they have a legitimate shot of upsetting the Rockets. What he’s done this season is truly unparalleled, and you have a bunch of goobers who obviously know nothing about basketball comparing him to guy’s who padded their stats on awful teams. It’s actually kind of insulting. With his build, athleticism, skill, IQ and passion for the game the sky is truly the limit for this kid. People should stop blindly hating and try to appreciate what he’s done/doing, ’cause we’re not likely to see it again.

[cohenbc1Participant]

Seriously? We’re never going to see a player like Donovan Mitchell again?

Look, he’s great. His "ceiling" is a perennial allstar, perennial all-nba guy, first-ballot hall-of-famer. 

But everyone wants to talk about offense. How great are the Jazz defensively, and how great is Rudy Gobert? Is he the best defensive big man since a)Tim Duncan; b) Ben Wallace; c) Dikembe Mutombo; d) Bill Russell?

 

 

 

  

[whiteflashParticipant]

 Where did I write that? I wrote we’re not likely to see what he’s done this year again. And, we won’t. Holler at me the next time you find an unheralded kid stepping into a departed All-Stars shoes, lead the team in scoring, take them to the playoffs, upset a team with 3 HOF’ers and do it while maintaining composure.

[cohenbc1Participant]

 Well, "this year" makes it different. But I’m sure someone will do something similar again. In terms of both regular-season dominance and playoff success, Mitchell’s rookie year was pretty much garbage compared to Tim Duncan’s, Larry Bird’s or Magic Johnson’s … which is going back awhile but hopefully not so far that we won’t live long enough to see something equivalent!

[whiteflashParticipant]

 Either your reading comprehension is awful or you’re being intentionally obtuse.

[r377Participant]

 

I never actually compared him to MCW as I used Laettner a 6-11 PF/C in the same sentence.  There are loads of guys who score about 20ppg in their rookie season and don’t improve heaps on that stat – Jamal Mashburn and Glenn Robinson just off the top of my head. Not ever player is Kevin Durant or Michael Jordan that can go from 20ppg to 30ppg.

 

 

 

I said he will prob be a 18-22ppg or a 16-20ppg guy if they get another offensive weapon in future years.

 

[whiteflashParticipant]

 And not one of those guys took a team predicted to finish outside the top 10 to the playoffs. 

[OhCanada-Participant]

 Idk what else he can do to prove it. So far in 8 playoff games they won a series and split road games against the best team in the league. Hes averaging 26 points 6 rebounds and 4 assists. Hes a superstar right now, college ball and 2 or 3 years down the road doesnt matter when he is actually doing it. Hes the rookie of the year if we can count Playoff basketball.

[The GoatParticipant]

 I predict a career between John Starks and Mitch Richmond. Thats pretty damn good. He has the potential to be even better than that, but I’m not calling him better than Richmond’s level off one rookie year. 

[whiteflashParticipant]

 He’s rookie year is already statistically better than any year Starks ever had (including his one All-Star year) and is in line with Richmond’s career averages, and neither of those guys were EVER the first option on a playoff team. If he just maintains his current production he’ll blow those two out of the water, and I really liked both of their games.

[Andrew1984Participant]

 I had previously said Baron Davis, but in the playoffs, he’s reminded me more of peak Gilbert Arenas.

[Dog_ShammdogParticipant]

 A less selfish Steve Francis with a good head on his shoulders. Both are undersized 2’s/combo guards with elite leaping ability and explosive athleticism. I’m really hoping Donovan stays healthy, hungry and out of trouble, bc the decline of Steve Francis was sad to watch. I don’t have any concerns about Mitchell’s character though and believe he will have a far better career than Francis. Donovan Mitchell is one of the easiest players to root for in the entire league and he’s just now tapping into his potential as baseball was his first love and he didnt start focusing on basketball until his junior year of high school.

[whiteflashParticipant]

 Francis was exclusively a pg, and he and Mitchell play absolutely nothing alike. He’s Gilbert Arenas’ game in Shannon Brown’s body.

[Dog_ShammdogParticipant]

 A less selfish Steve Francis with a good head on his shoulders. Both are undersized 2’s/combo guards with elite leaping ability and explosive athleticism. I’m really hoping Donovan stays healthy, hungry and out of trouble, bc the decline of Steve Francis was sad to watch. I don’t have any concerns about Mitchell’s character though and believe he will have a far better career than Francis. Donovan Mitchell is one of the easiest players to root for in the entire league and he’s just now tapping into his potential as baseball was his first love and he didnt start focusing on basketball until his junior year of high school.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

To me, he’s like part Eric Gordon / part Derrick Rose. Obviously the pre injury / younger versions. 

Similar to both Rose & Gordon, he’s 6’3”. Like Gordon, he’s a combo guard that has that strong thick build w/ long arms so he can play bigger than what he is. Also his open court speed & just how physically he plays going downhill reminds me of Gordon. Maybe not the shooter Gordon is, but he’s an electric scorer like Gordon. & even defensively, he has good feet / slides like Gordon & can defend both 1’s, 2’s & *some* 3’s.

While he’s not exclusively the point guard like Rose was, he has similar ability to use ball screens (especially split it) like Rose. He has that explosive two foot bounce (maybe not as freakish) like Rose. He can change gears / speeds similar to Rose in my opinion too. His ball handling is right on par with Rose’s too.

The kid is special. If he can stay healthy, I see no reason why he can’t become one of the best guards to ever do it. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[r377Participant]

 

How efficient is Donovan Mitchell ?

 

 

 

Definitely not shy about shooting it. He was nearly 10^th in the league in shots attempted and 25^th in league in scoring, hardly efficient….

 

 

 

Please keep in mind he flew under the radar for the first half of the season, not too many teams would have targeted him defensively.  After the All star break, when teams worked him out, he then declined and shot 43% and only 31% from 3

 

[jazzmailmanParticipant]

I think Mitchell compares favorably with Dwade and Lillard. Both of these 2 all-stars were 22 already entering the league. Dwade is 6-4, Lillard is 6-3, and Mitchell is 6-3. He has Dwade athleticism and Lillard’s range. If he can get anywhere to Dwade’s level, that’s HOF level already.

Dwade”s first 2 years, see that surge in scoring? Mainly due to shooting a lot more FTs as he attacks the basket.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wadedw01.html

 

 

Lillard’s first 2 years, note that Mitchell shoots just about the same amount of 3s as Lillard. Keep in mind Lillard is putting up these numbers in 38.6 mpg rookie year.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01.html

 

Mitchell this year:

 http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mitchdo01.html 

 

 So what can we conclude?

– Mitchell is already on perennial all-star projectory, his rookie year is actually better than Dwade and Lillard’s rookie year.

– Stats wise, Mitchell actually compares more similarly to Lillard. The discrepancy in assists is due to Lillard being a PG (and more minutes), while Mitchell is secondary ball handler next to Rubio. Playing style wise, he’s more similar to Dwade in that they both attack the basket relentlessly.

– Defense wise, Mitchell is already beyond what Lillard will ever be, and much closer to Dwade.

– In order to be at HOF level (Wade), Mitchell needs to get to the FT more. Wade’s FTA jumped from 5.1->9.9 from rookie to sophomore. Mitchell has the capability to avg around 8 FTA as he constantly looks to attack the basket like Dwade does.

– Mitchell is a #1 option which means he will have to launch a lot of bad shots which results in lower FG% (just like all #1 options). I don’t think he’ll ever shoot 40% from 3s, but to raise his 3 point % from 34%->38% is not out of reach. He already has a higher eFG% than both Dwade and Lillard, and if he can shoot 38% from 3s, his eFG% will be ridiculous.

– I’d say Lillard’s floor is a bouncier and better defense Lillard; his ceiling is Dwade with 3 point range. Keep in mind that Lillard will end his career with 5+ All Star nods and Dwade is a HOF.

– Mitchell actually plays better in the 2nd half of games, even better in the 4th quarter. He also already proved in this playoff that he’s a big time performer. You can criticize his efficiency against the Rockets, but keep in mind Rockets is throwing elite defenders like Ariza on him, and Jazz has no other capable ball handlers since Rubio is injured.

 – Those of you who mention Tyreke Evans and MCW, keep in mind both of these players were playing on bad teams and that results in a lot of popcorn stats. Mitchell is already the #1 option on a 2nd round playoff team. Keep in mind Tyreke never developed a jump shot so other teams just crowd him and make him shoot. Tyreke also suffered a lot of injuries, but if this season is any indication, he’s still capable of getting popcorn stats (on a bad Memphis team).

As for MCW… his advance stats was absolutely horrendous andthat’s why 76ers dumped him midway through his 2nd season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/cartemi01.html

eFG% of 0.431% with 3.5 TOs? that screams inefficiency. And that’s actually a good season in terms of eFG% for him.

 

[kobyzParticipant]

 but can someone explain how he was so hold back in college? rick pitino should be so ashamed!!

[r377Participant]

 

Where is 2quick4u and Whiteflash ?

" Once in a generation player – 5+ all-star –  25+ppg superstar – elite outside shooting – future superstar "

What about the other comments "Dwayne Wade" or a "more efficient Dame Lillard"

Hall of Famer !!!

Donovan Mitchell is shooting 42% and only 30% from downtown.  Hardly elite or once in a generation type player or future superstar.

 

[Author]

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