Celtics Off-season

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Celtics Off-season

I know that a lot has been discussed about the Boston Celtics and this off-season, but I want to take a really good look at their assets and some possible directions they could go.

Star

Rajon Rondo - 12.9 million for 1 year

Veterans on decent contracts

Jeff Green - 9.4 million for 2 years (second year is a player option, meaning 2014-2015 could be a contract year for him)

Brandon Bass - 6.9 million for 1 year

Vitor Faverani - 2.1 for 2 years

Sizeable contracts to faciliate a trade

Gerald Wallace - 10.1 million for each of the next 2 years

Keith Bogans - 5.2 and 5.4 million over next two years NON-GUARENTEED (can be released immediately and team takes no salary hit)

Joel Anthony - 3.8 million for one year (assuming he opts in on his player option)

Sign and Trade players (based on Elhassan's projected value)

Jeryd Bayless - 2-3 million a year for 2 years

Avery Bradley - 4.5 million for 3 years

Kris Humprhies - 1-3 million for 2 years

Young Prospects on rookie contracts

Jared Sullinger - 1.4 and 2.2 million over the next two years

Kelly Olynyk - 2.1, 2.1, and 3.1 over the next three years

Phil Pressey - .8 and .9 over the next two years

First Round Picks

2014 - 6th and 17th

2015 - Celtics', Clippers', and Philly's (top 14 protected that becomes second round pick)

2016 - Celtics', Nets'

2017 - Celtics', Rights to swap with Nets' pick

2018 - Celtics', Nets'

2019 - Celtics'

Trade Exemptions

10.3 million from Paul Pierce

2.1 million from Courtney Lee

Some Thoughts

Of all the teams in the league, I think the Celtics have the most assets for a trade. Some teams have solid starters on the trading block, but often they don't have good (or many) draft picks. Some teams have expiring contracts, but few have non-guarenteed contracts. It is just really cool to see that the Celtics could go a lot of different directions.

Blow It Up and Start Over

If they cannot get another star for Rondo, rather than waiting for him to leave, they should blow things up. I know that many teams will want Rondo, but few have as much as the Celtics will be looking for. I think the team with the best chance is the Kings. The Rockets, Lakers, and Mavs (and my darkhorse for Rondo, the Pacers) will all throw their hats into the rinks, but these teams can only offer decent role players and future first round picks, all of which will be mid to late first rounders, other than the Lakers' pick this year. However, the Kings have the young prospects, future draft picks, and salaries so that the Celtics could also ship out Wallace in the trade.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=o3wwsfc

Since ESPN has not figured out how to add a sign and trade feature to their trade machine, this trade cannot go through right now. I imagine that Isaiah Thomas will be signed for between 8-10 million over 3-4 years (maybe a deal similar to Brandon Jennings?), which makes the salaries match up.

The Celtics will dump Wallace's contract in any trade involving Rondo. They get back a starting point guard to replace Rondo, a prospect who needs a lot of development in McLemore, and two big men who have underperformed in the NBA but still have potential. The Kings also include their the number 8 pick in this year's draft. It is a lot to give up for Rondo, but the Kings need a winner and competitor to place them in playoff contention again. A Cousins-Gay-Rondo could compete for the playoffs, depending on how Cousins continues to develop.

Making a New Big 3

Everyone knows that the Celtics want Kevin Love, and it seems from his recent visit that Love is at least interested in Boston. One thing that I will mention is that Brad Stevens, both in college and last season in the NBA, really likes his power forwards to be willing to shoot outside, which makes Love a good fit in his system.

The real question is: what's next? Rondo and Love are a good start, but they need at least one more borderline all-star to make this a true contender. More on that in a minute.

First, the Celtics have to find a way to get Kevin Love, which may not be easy. I think there is a lot of postering going on right now, with the Wolves releasing to the press that they were not impressed with the Celtics' offer. In the end, it seems like the Celtics can offer the most and the best draft picks, which may tip the scales in their favor.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=myow83z

Here, the Wolves get a solid role player that plays Love's position. They also get Bogans' immediately waivable contract and Jared Sullinger, who plays a very similar game to Kevin Love, albeit to a much lesser extent. The Wolves also get the Celtics' 2014 6th pick, the Celtics' 2015 pick, and the Nets' 2016 and Celtics' 2018 picks.

Option One

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=mthlou3

Obviously if the Celtics have the ability to pull off that trade, they will suddenly be an interesting destination for Melo. The Celtics will not have much to offer, but they could try a combo package of Olynyk, Green, Anthony, and Bayless (in a sign-and-trade, which would be hard to do). The Celtics would also have to include their 2014 14th pick, their 2017 pick, the right to swap picks with the Nets in 2017, and the Nets 2018 pick.

I know that both the Knicks and the Wolves want a star back for their stars, but that is not typical for these kind of trades. (see Harden trade, Old Garnett trade, Melo Trade, etc.) Most trades for stars include a solid role player or two, a prospect or two, and draft picks. These trades would give both the Wolves and the Knicks the best combination of solid players today, prospects for the future, future draft picks, and probable future lottery picks.

The Celtics would be pretty bare after those trades. They would have Rondo, Bradley, Melo, Love, Humprhies, Faverani, Pressey, and Wallace. That's not a championship bench, but suddenly players like Paul Pierce, Pau Gasol, Channing Frye, Patty Mills, and Luol Deng, and Emeka Okafor might be willing to take a pay cut to try for a championship.

Option Two

I do believe that option one is a real possiblity, but if they cannot land Melo, there are a few players that would fit their team nicely.

My favorite option is the Celtics going after Josh Smith, who they might be able to get for cheap. Jeff Green, Jeryd Bayless, and/or Joel Anthony might be enough for the Pistons to take the opportunity to get out of Smith's contract. Green is an underrated outside shooter who could play both forward spots. The Celtics could even grease the wheels with the Nets' 2018 first round pick and/or another pick.

Another option might be to swing a three-way trade with Minny that sends Caldwell-Pope to Minny and Martin to the Pistons or the Celtics. This gets Minny out of the remaining three years of Martin's contract and gives the Pistons or the Celtics another shooter. The Celtics could also swallow one year of another bad contract (Berea, Brewer, or Budinger) from Minnesota with Pierce's exemption. This threeway trade would sweeten the deal for Minny considerably.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=o7qrgqk

This also means the Celtics would not have to give up quite so much. Smith and Love would actually compliment each other pretty well. They would have Rondo, Martin, Bradley, Wallace, Smith, Love, Pressy, Olynyk, Humphries, Faverani, Bayless (depending on the trade), and their 14th overall pick this year. Again, not a championship roster, but moving the right direction. They would also still have six first round picks in the next five years, one of which is the Nets' pick and another could be. And don't forget about Gerald Wallace's contract, which is basically a trade placeholder (plus first round picks) for another solid player wanting a change of scenery. Asik? Chandler? Horford? McGee? Eric Gordon?

Don't get me wrong; alot of things have to go right for any of this to happen. The point I am trying to make is that no other team in the league has as many assets as the Celtics. No other team has the ability to pull off these trades.


UnbiasedObserver
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I posted something similar to

I posted something similar to this a while ago.

This is a very well thought out Celtics blueprint that makes a lot of sense. Option 1 and making a new Big 3 is definitely the most likely scenario. I have my reservations about Melo tho, unless he stops with his iso game and trying to play hero ball. They did say the same thing about Paul Pierce though and we all know how that worked out, so you never know.

But I must point out that the Celtics would need at least a competent rim protector alongside Love and Melo. (Think Omer Asik) Avery Bradley and Asik are two very solid defenders to go along with two offensive weapons and an elite passer.

The Celtics assets are ridiculous, they can throw a godfather type offer at any team for almost any player on the trade market. Kinda just rich with assets. All thanks to Mikhail Prohkorov

Ntsap
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I think this Ivan happen

I doubt Morey's ego will let Boston form a super team with Asik. They will be paying 15 million for a backup center .

Minnesota should just take 6,17, a young player and a Brooklyn 1st and the Clippers 1st. Play they have enough assets for bench depth.

capecodder
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josh smith

As a Celtics fan....no thanks on Josh Smith

Meditated States
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I agree they can keep Josh

We do not want him.

treytalkssports.com
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I'm a Celtics fan too. I

I'm a Celtics fan too. I realize his weaknesses. But given the choice between Green and Smith, I think I would take Smith. I think he is a better fit next to Kevin Love. He is one of only a few players in the NBA who could average 15 8 4 1.5 and 1.5. Ideally, he is your fourth scoring option and he reverts back to attack-the-basket Josh Smith.

I'd rather have other players too, but Josh Smith stock is really low right now. The potential fit next to Kevin Love as a defensive stopper is interesting (if his athleticism holds up for a few more years).Also, Love and Rondo are more likely to sign extensions with another star in the fold.

FutureNBAGM
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To be honest, I dont see how

To be honest, I dont see how Josh Smith would FIT with Boston. Sullinger isnt going anywhere, and I dont think Olynyk is either. If anything, Boston needs to make a decision on Rondo first. I would hate to see him leave but it may be wise to move him while you can get great value for him as opposed to losing him next summer for nothing. Just my opinion.

treytalkssports.com
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I appreciate the thoughts,

I appreciate the thoughts, but I don't think you really followed the post. The Celtics only go after Smith if they can land Love first. The only way they get Love is if they trade away Sullinger. If they can't land Love, then they trade away Rondo and blow it up.

SwatLakeCity
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So basically your new

So basically your new starting lineup with Love, Smith and Asik would be: Rondo, Bradley, Smith, Love, Asik.

Didnt the Pistons already prove this year that Josh Smith was not a 3. He is a four. So I'm sorry but I'm not feeling this is going to work. Maybe Lance Stephenson would be a better option than Smith. You could move Bradley to the bench as your sixth man. Then go find some cheap that can start, provide balance one that wants to win. I just don't see Smith and Love when they both play the same position.

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You are right about Smith. He

You are right about Smith. He is more of a four. However, playing next to Kevin Love is a little different than playing next to Greg Monroe. Love has range on his shot and has the ability to put the ball on the floor, get in the lane, and make a little floater. The Pistons trio didint' work because all of them were best from within 15 feet.

With some creative lineups, you could stagger Asik, Love, and Smith so that they only play with each other for the first six minutes of each half, but for the other 20-25 minutes that each player plays a game, they would play their more natural positions.

Anyway, my point wasn't that Smith is suddenly a three. My point is that Love's offensive abilities could make up for Smith's offensive definciencies.

I think Lance Stephenson would explode under Brad Stevens, and I have monkeyed on the trade machine trying to get him there, but unless the Celtics trade away Bradley or Rondo, I don't think it can work. The Pacers are stacked at power forward. Players like Sullinger and Olynyk won't work in a trade. Jeff Green could be an interesting piece on the Pacers' roster, but they really need another guard who can create shots. Keith Bogans' contract, Joel Anthony, and the sixth pick would probably do it for the Pacers (Marcus Smart would be a perfect fit for their grind-it-out team), but I'm not sure that Stephenson is worth the sixth pick to the Celtics.

ExumInferno
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Josh Smith doesn't really

Josh Smith doesn't really have positive trade value, his contract is too high and long and his shooting eprcentages are too low.

The Pistons might even take Gerald Wallace, which would get them out of the bad contract a year earlier and even save some money every season.

Bass and J Anthony, Detroit would happily take those two players with one more year left, for J Smith.

Also, the sign and trade projected value for Humphries seems very low. In some ways, he was one of the very best players the Celtics had, for his stats and efficiency. The low point for Humphries is the MLE, and he could get a lot more than that if a team needs height and few other free agents with size are around.

treytalkssports.com
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The Celtics might even offer

The Celtics might even offer two future first round picks if the Pistons are willing to take Gerald Wallace's contract. I'm just imagining how that conversation would go between Ainge and SVG.

"Hey Stan. We will trade you one bad-shooting tweener forward whose game relies heavily on athleticism for another, but we want to give you the older one who might rack up 30 DNPs next year."

"Stan?"

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