Top 5 Overrated Prospects
In a draft that we actually really like a number of the top prospects, there will obviously be a few players that fail to live up to expectations. On Thursday we took a look at 5 underrated prospects. Here are 5 prospects who we feel are overrated. This list is not five players who we think will be busts, as a few of these guys are good bets to be solid pros. But for where they are being projected to be drafted, we feel they are overrated.
Aaron Gordon, PF Arizona
The Aaron Gordon mythical hype train continues to gather momentum. The athletic testing environment was Gordon’ sanctuary and he tested brilliantly: 39’ max vertical, 10.81 lane agility and 2.76 shuttle run. he also played in the perfect system, Arizona's, to showcase his strengths and mask his weaknesses. He’s an elite level leaper and covers ground quickly. But comparisons to a Blake Griffin/Shawn Marion hybrid are out of control. He’s 6’9 220 (6’11 wingspan) with a narrow frame, it's questionable just how much bulk he can add without decreasing his mobility, not to mention his limited overall skill level. Playing fast is Gordon’s calling card, but his inability to “slow down” on his jumpshot and his subsequent lack of touch are crippling. He’s an undersized 4-man with extraordinary defensive potential behind a filled out frame. He also showed surprising passing ability. Gordon is still only 18 and the youngest player in the draft, which has added to the media intrigue. He's extremely focused and will probably end up being a solid role player, but is that worthy of a top 8-10 pick in such a strong draft?
Dante Exum, SG/PG Australia
The East Melbourne product is a legitimate top-5 talent and extremely difficult to pass on due to his potential; however, garnering consideration at #2 to Milwaukee is a pipedream. Exum stood up to the challenge at the U19 World Championships, but all in all he’s a relatively untested commodity against projectable competition. Scouts are split on his ultimate on-court role. While he undoubtedly displays PG traits, there’s a monumental difference between playing an unselfish brand of ball and running an NBA team. At 6’6 he produced the 2nd best time in the lane agility drill (10.75) and a posted a top-10 ¾ court sprint (3.19). He’s a devastating penetrator with both speed and quickness to spare. But can he keep defenses honest by developing a reliable jumpshot? Does he possess the toughness to penetrate and finish against contact, and consistently utilize his first step?
Nik Stauskas, SG Michigan
I suppose it’s a matter of organizational preference: does a shooting specialist – a role player – warrant lottery consideration? He’s expanded his off-the-dribble variety (and overall mentality) while showing flashes of playmaking aptitude off the pick and roll. With that said, it remains highly questionable whether those skills will translate. Stauskas lacks foot speed and he’ll need to be protected guarding on the perimeter in the league. His shot is a thing of beauty, but speeding up the release on catch and shoot is an area for improvement.
Tyler Ennis, PG Syracuse
Intangibles CHECK, intelligence CHECK, pacing CHECK, team orchestration CHECK. No one evaluating Ennis will deny his old school, winning style is captivating. They also won’t deny that he’s athletically limited and his upside is tapered. Ennis recorded a 36’ max vertical at the combine, but this type of finishing explosion was not present on his collegiate game tape. He’s excellent at changing paces off the P&R, but comes up short in terms of extended quickness and speed. Ennis doesn’t possess that “push me over the top” weapon. The eye test isn’t his ally. Winning basketball games is.
Adreian Payne, PF Michigan State
Filling NCAA Tournament box scores often results in a player being over-projected, and that appears to be the case with Payne in 2014. Payne missed the draft combine with mono, and it’s unfortunate because his vertical leap and lane to lane agility would have further entranced his suitors. At 6’10, he lacks refinement or assertiveness in the post. And while he’s an excellent run/jump athlete, his explosiveness is blunted in the half court setting. Payne’ standout attribute is his shooting ability, as he was arguably the nation’s most effective floor stretcher last season. Landing with a contender in the late first round would be optimal for role allocation and appropriate usage.
Noah Vonleh is the biggest one for me.
Is Payne really overrated? I haven't seen anyone serious say that he'll be drafted before the late 1st. Seems like his draft stock has been evaluated just fine...
Stauskas might speed up his release??? He has one of the quickest release even compared to Nba guys, you must be kidding me.
Also, how can Payne be overrated, he's projected to go late in the first round being a legitimate 6'9" with terrific wingspan, great athleticism, a jump shot and some low post skills. To me it sounds like lottery pick material.
Has anyone else noticed that every single prospect on this site (or any site for that matter) are terribly pigeonheld to extremely clichèd strengths and weaknesses? All the white guys "lack athleticism" and have good range for their position. Big time athletes lack nba skills, IE; shooting, ball handling, decision making, etc. vise versa, guys with high skill levels like Ennis or Randle have questions about how athletic they are. Even though a lot of these guys have answered those questions. Ennis is quick and showed he can jump. Randle is an obvious above average athlete. Besides, in most cases those negatives are irrelevant. How is it a knock against Ennis that he doesn't play above the rim??! He is a great team leader and decision maker. Truth is all prospects, ever, including Lebron, when heading to the draft have things they aren't great at and need to work on. If it's obvious a prospect should be in discussions to be a lottery pick, than the only things that would concern me would be injuries, mental toughness, how well they've progressed over the last couple years and my team needs. Outside of obvious top 2 or 3 can't miss prospects.
We have reached the over analyzation zone. We desperately need Thursday to be here.
I also do not understand how Adreian Payne can be considered overrated. I agree he lacks assertiveness at times but he is tall, athletic, and has a very impressive skillset.
I see him as a Taj Gibson type of stretch 4 with a stronger body and slightly more athleticism. I think he would be talked about as a top 8 pick if he was a few years younger.
Take Steve Nash for example...could barely grab net and he had a horrible career. Moral of the story: Stay away from Ennis.
think everyone is sleepying on aquille carr he is a good point guard didnt paly at a big school but hey he can play i really like him and he is putting in the work to here his name on draft day or just get a call from anyteam for a work out wen the draft is over all team need to take a look at him can run the floor and get to the rim with work and do time can be a good nba player he i think its alot of overrated players in the nba draft this yr but we will see wen it come to play in there first nba game but to me if you go to a big school no one will here about you and that is crazy for alot of players at small schools
Gordon does seem a little overated in general with as many skilled and athletic players available this yr.
He's really still along ways from being a impact player besides defending the 3.
Agree with Exum and Gordon. The other 3 are mid first rounders so i don't know about the "over-rated" label where they will be drafted.
I don't agree with Ganeles, I do see how he says the things he says about Exum because so little video is available but I think he goes the negative way where others go the positive way. I like the fact Gordon does so many things well and I think he can fix the shooting, there are alot of players that came into the league and weren't good shooters, Karl Malone, Paul Milsap, Blake Griffin, just to name a few, Stauskas , I think is probably better than he says and should be a solid starter. I don't see where Payne is being overrated, Enis seems to be dropping some and to me that is justified.
How do you consider a guy overrated at 6'10 with the skill set that Payne has? He has great hands and a great touch around the rim.. He will be in the league for a very long time.
The guy put up his best numbers against tough competition and in the clutch. His stats are almost hurt because he didn't pad his stats against bad competition at all. He scored when his team needed scoring and didn't when his team didn't need him to. That is a sign of serious maturity.