"Situational Analysis" is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Josh Jackson is a 20-year-old wing from Southfield, Michigan, who averaged 16.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3 assists during his freshman season for the Kansas Jayhawks. He has spent the season at or near the top of every mock draft, and is widely expected to be the first non-point guard selected. NBADraft.net currently has him going No. 3 overall.
NBA-Specific Skills
Some prospects require a certain level of nuance and creativity in terms of scouting. Every NBA team employs countless individuals whose sole purpose is to predict what these players could become — essentially, to see into the future.
"If Prospect X does Y and Z to improve his game, then Prospect X could potentially contribute this and this to an NBA franchise."
Scouting Josh Jackson, on the other hand, requires next to no nuance or creativity.
An NBA front office could send a person who has never watched basketball to a random Jayhawks game and ask that person to simply point to the player who stands out.
After 20 minutes, that basketball novice would have pointed to No. 11.
Sometimes, it’s just that simple. Jackson stands out on a basketball court the way Rihanna would stand out if she took part in The Voice — just an overwhelming level of star power and charisma when compared to the competition.
Jackson possesses that rare, un-teachable combination of athleticism and effort. We’ve all seen players with every athletic gift in the world content to coast on natural ability — Stromile Swift, Joe Alexander, and Tyrus Thomas come to mind. Conversely, we’ve seen a number of players who don’t necessarily possess top-shelf NBA-level athleticism carve out lengthy careers based on effort, tenacity, coachability, and basketball IQ — remember Eduardo Najera? I loved Eduardo Najera.
Jackson is perhaps the best pure athlete in this draft class, and one can make the argument that he plays harder than any comparable prospect, too.
Throw in his frame (6-8, 210) and his positional versatility (can conceivably defend four positions, switch across any screen, and play in any offensive philosophy) and it’s impossible to imagine a scenario in which Jackson isn’t a high-level starter on a team with championship aspirations.
On a scale from 1 (James Harden during Game 6 of the San Antonio series) to 10 (LeBron James in June), Jackson’s athleticism/effort combination rates at an 8.5.
Fatal Flaws
It seems we’re constantly having this conversation about these extraordinary wing athletes. Can he shoot it?
It’s what separates All-NBA wings from the serviceable-yet-limited starters who become liabilities in a playoff series. The ability to consistently knock down jumpers from 24 feet will determine Jackson’s future.
He did make nearly 38 percent of his attempts from the shorter college line, but hidden beneath that number were some extended cold spells, offset by occasional hot streaks. For a 7-game stretch during Big 12 play, Jackson hit 15 of 28 from deep. If NBA teams wanted to cherry pick that three-week stretch to show that Jackson could develop into a No. 1 offensive option, they certainly could. Of course, teams could also look at how Jackson made only 9 of 38 3-pointers in Kansas’s first 18 games of the season.
The most troubling number is Jackson’s free-throw percentage: 56.6. A slasher such as Jackson can get to the stripe seemingly at will, but if he can’t confidently knock down his foul shots, it will make him a liability at the end of games. Not only will he be susceptible to hack-a strategies, but free-throw struggles could also temper Jackson’s valuable tenacity when attacking the rim.
Kawhi Leonard willed himself into an elite-level shooter. Jimmy Butler became an above-average one. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Justise Winslow are still working on it. See what I’m getting at? Jackson’s ability to hit shots will determine where he falls on this spectrum. His need to hook up with a top-flight shooting coach rates at an 8.
Pre-NBA Setting
How do we put this? Jackson’s time in Lawrence was a bit, um, up and down.
When he was on the court, Jackson played like a star. Even on a team with the eventual Wooden Award winner in Frank Mason and another dynamic guard in Devonte’ Graham, it was Jackson who stole the show with a variety of "wow!" plays on both ends of the court.
That aggression, however, often boiled over — both on and off the court.
In the first three games of his college career, he was whistled for 13 fouls. He fouled out of three games and battled foul trouble in countless others. Quick whistles limited his effectiveness in Kansas’s NCAA Tournament loss to Oregon.
An article in the Kansas City Star dated Jan. 6 discussed Jackson’s penchant for picking up technical fouls — frustration manifesting itself in ill-advised ways. That’s also a euphemistic way of describing an incident outside a bar where Jackson repeatedly kicked a car belonging to a member of Kansas’s women’s basketball team. One could also describe that as a crime.
Jackson also hit a parked car and fled the scene without telling anybody about it for weeks.
Each individual incident is not enough to consider dropping Jackson’s stock. Taken as a whole, however, and it paints a picture of a young man who has trouble with impulse control and can let his anger get the best of him.
The interpretation is in the eye of the beholder: Is Jackson a good kid with a temper, who just needs to grow up a little bit? Or is Jackson going to be the kind of player who allows a couple bad calls to get in his head, much like DeMarcus Cousins? Why would he get involved in these off-court incidents when he knows millions of dollars await him?
The team drafting Jackson has a lot of homework to do.
It’s difficult to rate Jackson’s time in Lawrence on a scale from 1 to 10. On the court, it’s a 9. Off the court, a 3. Let’s split the difference and call it a 6.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Jackson needs two things to reach his full potential: 1) a very good shooting coach, and 2) a team/coach/infrastructure that doesn’t put up with foolishness.
Make no mistake: Jackson is an incredible prospect. It’s entirely possible that we look back on this draft and kick ourselves for not having Jackson listed as the No. 1 player. Given the number of dominant wings currently in the NBA (you know a position is stacked when Gordon Hayward and Paul George can’t make an All-NBA team), a team needs one of its own to compete at an elite level.
Even if Jackson somehow regresses as a shooter, he’ll find a role as a Tony Allen-level defensive stopper who runs the floor in transition, rebounds his butt off, back-cuts his way into 4-5 easy layups, and knocks down the occasional jumper. He’s too gifted not to have a 12-year career.
Jackson’s ceiling, however, is multiple All-NBA teams. Most mock drafts have him going to Philadelphia, where he’d slot at the 3 alongside Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. He’d bring a dimension the 76ers currently lack on the perimeter, but he wouldn’t solve their spacing woes.
Others have speculated that the Boston Celtics could trade out of the No. 1 spot to take Jackson at 3, where he’d team up with Jaylen Brown for one of the most athletic young forward tandems in the league. Jackson would thrive under Brad Stevens and could develop at his own pace on a 50-win team.
There is also a scenario in which Jackson drops to Phoenix at 4, should the 76ers opt for a point guard such as De’Aaron Fox. Jackson and Devin Booker is a fascinating wing combination — each complements the other perfectly. I’m not certain Earl Watson is the ideal coach for him, but a team should never let a coach’s limitations dictate its drafting philosophy. Coaches come and go, while prospects like Jackson are far more difficult to find.
Ultimately, Jackson’s ability to thrive on the NBA rests primarily on his shoulders. He has the talent. Can the right franchise maximize it? I’d bet on yes.
On a scale from 1 to 10, I’ve got Jackson’s likelihood to reach his ceiling at an 8.
Sixers Fan
Sixers fan here. Assuming the Sixers keep the #3 pick, I would like for Josh Jackson to be their guy. I understand the thought of finding a true go-to scorer on the perimeter, but I have doubts as to whether guys like Malik Monk or Jayson Tatum can be that guy. Monk shot sub-40% from the field the last two months of the college basketball season, including 35% from the field and below 30% from 3 in the month of March. Tatum shot 29% from 3 for the season outside the month of February.
Meanwhile, Jackson shot 42% from 3 the final three months of the season, and his free throw shooting% improved each month (from 54% in the month of November to 67% in the month of March.) Most importantly, he was not a team distraction, displayed more maturity, and saw his minutes increase in the second half of the season as a result. He will have to cut down on turnovers and personal fouls, and this will have to certainly be addressed by coaching, but these are categories that you typically expect players to improve upon over time. I look at Jackson as a bigger version of De’Aaron Fox, thus why I favor the former vs the latter.
Jackson will be the first
Jackson will be the first pick in the draft, I just dont see Danny Ainge passing on this kid.. Hes everything an old school Celtic would want in a player..