Why It's Likely John Wall WON"T Be 2010's #1 Pick
There is a strong feeling that some guy named John Wall is gonna be the #1 pick in the NBA draft. I disagree for a few reasons. First, team need. With virually every freaking team in the league taking a PG in the 2009 draft, the chances of the same teams investing yet MORE millions of dollars on the exact same position the following year is slimmer by a lot. Then take a look at the teams with an absolute need at the PG and you see that ironically those are some of the better teams in the league with little shot at drafting in the top 5.
Now some may say "Whoever gets the #1 pick, just draft Wall as the best available talent". Not so fast. That strategy generally applies to average or weak drafts, not strong ones. I'm not saying next year is strong or weak, but most experts are saying it will be stronger than 2009. That means you can draft for need AND talent, not just talent. There are 15 or so prospects that are coming out next year that would have been top 10 prospects this past year! I can say more, but I want to read what yall have to say about this, if anything.
There is a slight Chance he wont go 1st. I think it depends on who get's the 1st pick like you said
2 things can happen...
He can dissapoint and really suck...
Or someone turns into superman, and absolutely "wows" scouts..
Like Ed Davis for example, averaged 19 minutes last season..
and impressed enough to be considered a lottery pick..
imagine what he gonna do with 35+ minutes?
But in terms of team needs, no matter how many PGs you have, if you sucked enough to earn a #1 pick, you probably need a better floor general anyway...
But I cant even see Minnesota passing on Wall, despite them having Flynn, Telfair, Maybe Rubio..
I think it comes down to who has the top pick but as History has shown us if that player is good enough a team will trade it's players for a better prospect. LAC is probably still not done trading players. Jordan is looking good and he and Griffin should get more minutes.
There are still some teams that need a top Point guard with many guys getting old and some guys just not working out like they should. Think about this what if Sacramento wins the top pick. They would move Evans to the 2 or 3 and take Wall for the 1. They would probably trade thier back ups for depth.
I see what you are saying about teams "earning the #1 pick" (LOL) MagikKnick but don't ya think a big part of earning a #1 pick is making dumb personnel decisions like Minny drafting Wall a year after drafting 3 PGs (keeping two of them) and then not letting them even develop? Is Wall better than all of the PGs taken this year? I think so. But isn't it the point to have the best team, not the best player? If the top 10 prospects not as dynamic as Wall but are still stars could help your team win more games, I think you take them over Wall. Am I crazy for thinking this?
Sheltwon it's interesting you brought up LAC because I think they are one of three or four teams in last year's lottery (Charlotte, Indiana, and maybe Memphis) that would take Wall without hesitation. All other teams expected in the lottery would have to think long and hard, and probably would decide to restructure their whole team if they take Wall.
If... IF John Wall lives up to his Derrick Rose part Rajon Rondo comparisons, he will be the #1 pick PERIOD. Unless your team already has a young franchise point guard, you draft Wall. Other than New Orleans, Utah and Chicago, what team has a young franchise point guard? You could argue that Boston (Rondo), New Jersey (Harris) and Oklahoma City (Westbrook) might pass on him. San Antonio has Tony Parker and George Hill, so MAYBE they'd pass on him. Washington has Gilbert Arenas, but he's been injured for like two seasons. They'd draft Wall and play him and Arenas together. Other than those teams, who'd be stupid enough to pass on him IF he lives up to the hype? I mean, even Atlanta, Minnesota, Golden State, Milwaukee and Sacramento would have to take Wall if they got the number one pick because he'd be better than every point guard they have.
He does his best derrick rose impression and makes it 2 tha NCAA championship he WILL b tha number 1 pick
I dunno. It depends. We say " Oh he should be #1 regardless. Well, if a team has a PG who they like and they get the 1st pick...why not trade it?
I agree, but if you think someone like Ed Davis who hasn't proved shi is going number one that qould be stupid. I think Paul George & Derrick Favors are gonna be good. Then again, Favors hasn't even played in college yet...
IF John Wall proves to be a Derrick Rose/Rajon Rondo hybrid... It would be VERY hard to trade that pick unless you're the GM of New Orleans, Utah or Chicago.
Guys let's not act like this is a forgone conclusion. Like MagikKnick suggested, it's not like Wall will be the only star available next year, and like I said lots of teams already have millions on the line by drafting a point this year. Look at the greatest historical example of something that happens regularly. Do you think Houston has ever lost sleep over "passing" on M. Jordan and taking Hakeem Olajuwon? Of course not, even though Jordan clearly is the better player. Houston picked the right player for their team.
well...What if alot of players stay in college and you get the 1st pick? If I could get 2 1st round pick for the 1st pick...i would take it.
His draft position only depends on what kind of season he has. If he plays anything close to Rose, he would go first to any team, except maybe your teams with elite PG's. Otherwise, you CAN NOT pass on him. If he has a mediocre year, then its possible he could slide a little, but I doubt their is any scenario dropping him out of the top 7-8, barring injury of course.
anything can happen it can be sum unknown person 2 pop up alla derick rose and be taken #1
i dont think anyone thought he be taken at number1 in 2007 4 2008 draft class im not sayin im just sayin
blazers all day
John Wall will go #1 only Rubio , Flynn , Curry ( and GSW might be playof bound ) and Jennings are starting Point Guards taken in this draft so IMO that shouldnt effect Wall 1 bit
Evans is a shooting guard