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NBADRAFT.net: Avoiding Bias; the Winningest players by Position

Slim
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NBADRAFT.net: Avoiding Bias; the Winningest players by Position

Sometimes on this site somebody will say this guy is a top 5 this or a top 5 that.

Like one person said OJ mayo is a top 5 shooting guard or ellis is better than iguodala.
Well OJ mayo probably is a top 5 shooting guard when it comes to buzzer beaters or ellis is better than iguodala at PPG.

But overall Iguodala could probably avg 24ppg if he were more selfish, but he's not.

So to avoid bias:
The most important stat to me is wins, without further ado here are the winningest shooting guards

Basically EWA is a mathematical estimate that shows how many wins on average a player will give you

Whether it be a defense to offense player like Rondo/Iguodala or a player that can drop 30 points per game.

This way we see the raw overall value of if you trade 1 player for another player!

---
*Shouldv'e re-signed 'Dre!!
----
Estimated Wins Added - Qualified Shooting Guards

RK EWA
1 Dwyane Wade, MIA 21.8
2 Kobe Bryant, LAL 15.7
3 Brandon Roy, POR 12.5
4 Joe Johnson, 11.6
5 Manu Ginobili, 10.9
6 Andre Iguodala,10.0
7 Monta Ellis, 8.1
8 Jamal Crawford, ATL 8.1
9 Stephen Jackson, CHA 7.8
10 Jason Terry, DAL 6.9
-------
RK EWA - Qualified Point Guards
1 Steve Nash, 12.4
2 Deron Williams, 12.1
3 Chris Paul, 11.0
4 Rajon Rondo, 10.8
5 Chauncey Billups,10.7
6 Russell Westbrook, 8.8 ***WOW!
7 Derrick Rose, 8.8***WOW!
8 Tyreke Evans, 8.7***WOW!
9 Andre Miller*, 8.0
10 Jason Kidd, 7.8
-------
RK EWA - Qualified Small Forwards
RK EWA
1 LeBron James, 29.2
2 Kevin Durant, 21.0
3 Carmelo Anthony, 14.5
4 Gerald Wallace, 11.7
5 Corey Maggette, 9.6
6 Danny Granger, 9.5
7 Rudy Gay, 8.9
8 Paul Pierce, 8.0
9 Luol Deng, 7.3
10 Andrei Kirilenko, 6.6
-------
RK EWA
1 Chris Bosh, 15.4
2 Dirk Nowitzki, 14.8
3 Amare Stoudemire, 13.6
4 Zach Randolph, 13.4
5 Josh Smith, 12.6
6 Carlos Boozer, 11.9
7 Pau Gasol, 10.6
8 David West, 9.8
9 Carl Landry, 8.8 (*!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*)
10 LaMarcus Aldridge, 8.3
-------
RK EWA
1 Dwight Howard, 17.4
2 David Lee, 15.7
3 Tim Duncan, 15.5
4 Brook Lopez, 13.5
5 Al Horford, 11.1
6 Marc Gasol, 11.0
7 Andrew Bogut, 10.4
8 Nene, 10.4
9 Al Jefferson, 9.9
10 Andrew Bynum, 9.5

Glossary
Players on pace to play 500 or more minutes
*To qualify: a player must have played 6.09 MPG.

EWA: Estimated Wins Added -
the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' would produce.
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) League average: 15.0


Slim
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...

Overall this confirms some of my suspicions:

You need GREAT teammates to win BIG!

Once you get pass the bias the Lakers* have 3 Top 10 players!

*=reigning champs, Coincidence?

the lake show
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thats not news.. everyone

thats not news.. everyone knows you need a good team/teammates to win big

Slim
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IN TERMS OF WINS; Top

IN TERMS OF WINS; Top 10
-----
1 LeBron James, 29.2
2 Kevin Durant, 21.0
3 Dwyane Wade, MIA 21.8
4 Dwight Howard, 17.4
5 Kobe Bryant, LAL 15.7
6 David Lee, 15.7
7 Chris Bosh, 15.4
8 Tim Duncan, 15.5
9 Dirk Nowitzki, 14.8
10 Carmelo Anthony, 14.5
----

Either Way some of my favorite players made the list including the Andre Igodala and Josh Smith.

Considering that Josh Smith is playing power forward I think if he played SF his production and hopefully his win contributions would go up.

Slim
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@ QUINCEY

Either way this post can now be used as a reference to avoid bias.

Like just bcuz "said player" scores 20ppg it does not mean they are better than "said" player.

Those are empty points and the player is not helping his team to wins.

Also we can compare Rudy Gay's 8.9 WINS production (people were saying trade him last year)

to Andre Iguodala's 10.0 WINS production (people are saying trade him on draft night etcetera)
---

Rudy Gay is in the playoffs and Iguodala isn't. But Iguodala helps the team win more than Rudy Gay. See where thats a problem. You need good teammates to win. I'm glad you agree with me.

midwestbbscout
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lol

David Lee gets just about every win for the Knicks lmao.....

Slim
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*

I initially made this post bcuz there was a list that said that 1 player was better than another.

This list shows that 1 player may average 25ppg but that doesnt mean that they help there team win. Maybe bcuz saud player shoots a bad percentage or

doesnt get stops on defense who knows. But overall now we can say that if we went thru an 82 game season and replaced this player with that player.

The team would be better or worse, without somebody going on about this player cant shoot or this player doesnt play any defense.

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David Lee surprised me top

David Lee surprised me top 10 players in wins?!

Hustles his butt off thats why... cant teach that

Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and Tyreke Evans are neck in neck. So no more saying "anybody" is better than all of them.

There almost equal! Upside may be a different story though...who knows

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midwestbbscout
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Congratulations Knicks....

by the rest of the team.....they are each responsible for exactly one win.....well I guess you can say Duhon is worth 0.6 lol....

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Also one should take into account injuries, an injured player cant help their team as much as a healthy player.

midwestbbscout
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right...

or Carmelo would be waaaaayyyyy higher

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That sucks

1.I said OJ Mayo is a top 5 pg in the league. 2.Igoudala is more of a 3 in my eyes thats why he wasn't in my top 10 SG's 3. that makes no sense your rankings suck mine are great.....................

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EDIT:
Chris Paul last season: 28.4 Wins contributed Overall
LeBron James was at 32.3

If you didnt know b4 Lebron is 6'8 260+ and Chris Paul is 6'1 190 at best.

That is remarkable, as a 6'1 PG Chris Paul's

IQ and skill level, the way it translates onto the court is just remarkable and RARE

Nash had 10.8 wins overall last year, Shaq had 13.1 last year

Chris Paul had good teammates but he was doing a lot of heavy lifting to say the least

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What team would be better

The thunder with Russell Westbrook ot the Thunder with Derrick Rose

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"Basically EWA is a

"Basically EWA is a mathematical estimate that shows how many wins on average a player will give you" so Brook Lopez is good for 13.5 wins. The Nets are 9-64. The Golden State Warriors have two guys by this goofy measure as being top seven at their position, 20-52. Basketball is not baseball. The value of a statistic cannot be taken out of the context of a game or system to be given greater meaning. It is a team game with great levels of subjective value. David Lee has better numbers than Tim Duncan this year, but there isn't a person alive with a working NBA brain would say Lee is anywhere close to the player that Duncan still is.

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"Basically EWA is a

"Basically EWA is a mathematical estimate that shows how many wins on average a player will give you" so Brook Lopez is good for 13.5 wins. The Nets are 9-64. The Golden State Warriors have two guys by this goofy measure as being top seven at their position, 20-52. Basketball is not baseball. The value of a statistic cannot be taken out of the context of a game or system to be given greater meaning. It is a team game with great levels of subjective value. David Lee has better numbers than Tim Duncan this year, but there isn't a person alive with a working NBA brain would say Lee is anywhere close to the player that Duncan still is.

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GSW: Monta Ellis is listed

GSW:

Monta Ellis is listed as a point guard, but he defends shooting guards bcuz of GSWs newest defensive liability Stephen Curry.

There is a reason for everything.

Corey Maggette is listed as a SF, but commonly defends 6'10, 7 foot power forwards, thats why the GSW loses cant defend

There is a reason for everything. Trade Monta Ellis for another PG and he contributes too WINS significantly. (See when Baron Davis was defending shooting guards)

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so Brook Lopez is good for 13.5 wins. The Nets are 9-64

so the Nets are losing bcuz of Brook Lopez? or in spite of him?

"David Lee has better numbers than Tim Duncan this year, but there isn't a person alive with a working NBA brain would say Lee is anywhere close to the player that Duncan still is."

Tim Duncan is averaging a career low in minutes and is being saved for the end of the season; Spurs have dropped a few games.

His production should increase as long as he's playing more minutes and healthy.

I dont know the numbers but I would guess that David Lee is playing more minutes then Timmy and he is helping his team win.

When Tim Duncan is healthy/in his prime I'm sure the numbers arent even close. This stat does not take into account situational lineups.

Its a generalization. Like if David Lee were playing Power Forward would his blocks and securing the ball of course go up, would he get beat off the dribble more?

who knows but the teams are winning and losing accordingly

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And on Brook Lopez, his

And on Brook Lopez,

his teammates probably have below average EWA, in comparison to his counterparts teammates. He isn't Dwight Howard but lets not get it twisted. He is the main one helping the team be competitive (at times).

Everybody needs good teammates, not to throw anybody under the bus but Brook Lopez is the best player on that team this season.

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Question

where does steph curry and maggette rank?

Slim
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@nateoak10 Stephen Curry is

@nateoak10

Stephen Curry is the 14th most productive point guard in term of Estimated Wins Contributed, right behind Lou Williams.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?position=pg&sort=VOR...

his shooting percentages is very good but I assume his defense is bad.

Maggette is at 9.6,

Lebron for comparisons sake is at 29.2!

so in theory if you trade Lebron for Maggette and GSW wins 20 more games

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Gee22Money, according to

Gee22Money, according to this it wouldn't really matter which OKC had. But i think westbrook is a better fit, never seen rose off the ball so don't know how effective he would be.

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iggy can't average 24ppg,

iggy can't average 24ppg, that's why people don't call him a franchise player.. cmon man! everyone knows this

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Ok, I'm looking at this

Ok, I'm looking at this list, you're telling me you would rather have this line-up as apposed to mine.

This is YOUR line-up according to this.

PG: Russell Westbrook
SG: Jamal Crawford
SF: Corey Maggette
PF: Carlos Boozer
C: Marc Gasol

Now MY LIST:

PG: Derrick Rose OR Jason Kidd
SG: Stephen Jackson
SF: Paul Pierce
PF: Pau Gasol
C: Al Jefferson

You're telling me that you're list would beat mine just because all of your players have a higher RK EWA.

My roster would beat yours inside out, upside down, side to side, 24/7 game after game.

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PG: Russell Westbrook

PG: Russell Westbrook 8.8
SG: Jamal Crawford 8.1
SF: Corey Maggette 9.6
PF: Carlos Boozer 11.9
C: Marc Gasol 11.0

Now MY LIST:

PG: Derrick Rose 8.8 OR Jason Kidd 7.8
SG: Stephen Jackson 7.8
SF: Paul Pierce 8.0
PF: Pau Gasol 10.6
C: Al Jefferson 9.9
----
Depends on who takes care of the ball more, your team is bigger though. And the roles on teams fluctuate.

Gasol could put up better numbers points-wise playing for the Jazz, but Boozer is a stronger fit and height wise
Pau Gasol would be guarding the center, his brother, and vice versa. So Gasol would be the center.
----

The Matchups
Westbrook versus Rose
(fans will debate this till the end of time, no matter what stats come up)

Crawford versus Jackson
(this is close, everyone knows Crawford doesnt play defense and Stephen Jackson likes to post up smaller guys so that is charlatanism on your part, why not give me Joe Johnson or someone with a higher Wins Contribution)

Paul Pierce versus Maggette
(Paul Pierce has been hurt this year that's why Celtics have dropped a few games, thats why hes lower than Maggette, last year Pierce's EWA was 10.9, you are assuming that Pierce is healthy this game, which this season he hasnt been, I'll take Maggette if Pierce is playing hurt)

PF & Center
Al Jefferson versus Carlos Boozer
Boozer is 2 quick for him, Jefferson wont get too many touches playing next to Pau and Pierce, will he?

M. Gasol versus P. Gasol
(hard to choose never remember them guarding each other? either way Pau Gasol's height advantage is nullified by Marc)
----

Due to Paul Pierce's injury (affecting his ranking) and Pau Gasol playing center on this team I think the games would be closer than you think.

EDIT: Pau Gasol got 22 rebounds last night, and the Lakers still lost, he shot 11-22, even though he got 10 offensive rebounds. The game would be closer than you think.

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@ D3WadeIsBetta iggy can't

@ D3WadeIsBetta
iggy can't average 24ppg, that's why people don't call him a franchise player.. cmon man! everyone knows this
-------------
Scottie pippen never averaged 21 ppg would you have traded him when he was just entering his prime, 26 years old. Trading a top 10 player is not a smart move, that was the point I was trying to make.

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Nowitzki is averaging 25ppg, and people call him a "foundation" player.

Some people have varying accounts of what a franchise player is. People would never call Ginobili a franchise player unless he came to a losing franchise and started putting up big numbers, regardless of wins.

I never said Iguodala was a "franchise"player, no one is until they win the title, but Iguodala is a lot closer to what a franchise shooting guard than people realize, that's why I posted this list

Because some people want to forget it but Iguodala and Miller backcourt led the team to the PLAYOFFS last year.

A lot of people would love to steal Iguodala from the Sixers, a 6'7 guy who can play and defend 3 positions? And is only 26?! Get out of here. Top 10= don't trade

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