Success in the Draft
I am working on a book about ways to succeed to in the NBA Draft....I value the opinions of people in this forum as you all seem to be very knowledgable so I would like to know if you guys have any input.....basically if your wife/girlfriend/sister won a contest and got to run a draft for an NBA team, what would be the advice you gave them????
When pick in the top 10 the guy with the highest potential ceiling doesn't mean he will ever reach that potential, you need to take a close look at his work ethic, the type of competition he has been playing against, and his basic skill set you can build around. Sometimes these "potential" players end up all-stars like Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire, but sometimes you get a Kwame Brown, Darko Milcic or Stromile Swift.
id invite a couple of guys who have also followed and played basketball on the college and pro level and see what the majority of us agree on. i wouldnt just trust my opinion on a particular guy
I will not just be blindly accepting people's opinions as law.....just kind of brainstorming....but if you want to e-mail me somethin Quincey, I'm all about it....
Regardless of your team situation and need, take the Best Player Available!
If you feel a few prospects are about the same, then you can still thinking of need. Also you should consider if the player fits in the long term plan and the market because you would have to consider if the player you drafted would like to stick beyond his first contract. (E.g. as a Raptors fan, I would like to see the Raptors drafting a mature player that would embrace Toronto as a 2nd home.)
E.g. Bosh seems to be a pretty mature player and if the Raptors is really good, then I can certainly see him staying long term and being happy as Toronto is really a nice city. However, with the Raptors not anywhere being close to be a contender, Bosh would likely be unhappy even if he signs a big long contract and that would lead to drop of his plays. (similar things could be said about Wince Harder, as much as I dislike him as a Raptors fan, when you think of how crappy the Raptors was, and stupid Babcock not trading him away when his value was still high really, you can't really put too much blame on him. He definitely was/is/will be seen as a loser as he quitted on his team, but I would like to blame stupid Babcock more for not trading him away when he wanted out.)
I think the following should be consider when evaluate the player:
1) Character - if the guy is a loser, regardless how talent he is, he would always be underachiever. Also you don't want to have a head case that would take your team down the drain after a few good seasons. A few bad reports can really take a player from star to journey man (see Ron Artest, Gibert Arenas, Derrick Coleman, Darko Milicic, and many other players)
2) Physical talent - you just can't ignore this part as you should have seen so many failure at the NBA level with players that have very little Physical talent (e.g. Adam Morrison, never liked him, but wouldn't really know he would be this bad. I hope he can get back on track to contribute as a role player though). This is important but as long as the player has at least average level of athleticism/speed, then it would be a pass. There are some many freak athletes that failed miserably in the NBA.
3) Basketball IQ - this would really help if the player is not too physically talented. Players like Steve Nash, Shane Battier compensated for the lack of physical talent with high basketball IQ.
4) Mental makeup and Winner mentality - this is hard to evaluate because it is hard to determine whether a player is extreme competitive or is just a cocky player. The difference is that a winner would do anything to help his team win and would not create chemistry issue because of reduced role/PT (e.g. Battier, Ginobili). A cocky player just talks big and when things don't go his way, he just folded and quitted on his team (e.g. TMac, Wince Harder).
5) Size - this really matters. Standard size for
PG - over 6-0, SG - over 6-5, SF - over 6-7, PF over 6-10, C over 6-11
Although there are successful cases for undersized players, size does matter in the NBA.
6) Existing skills
If a team cannot afford the player to develop (or if the pick is really high), the usual case is to get a player with developed skills. If a team can wait for the player to develop, then bring in the player and provide proper training would be the key (e.g. Andrew Bynum with Kareem, D12 with Clif Ray - apparently this person was credited for the initial development of D12 and the current K.Perkins)
7) Weaknesses - Weaknesses can be divided into correctable or non-correctable.
E.g. shooting can be easily improved by getting good shooting coach.(e.g. I saw Rajon Rondo as the best PG in 2006 with everything except for a jump shot, yet he fell below 20th in the draft. Although his shot is still broken, it has improved.)
ball handing - can be developed with practices
Non correctable weakness would include size (can't just grow another inch), mental makeup (u can't just turn a softie into tough guy).
8) Fit for the team - half court guy can't shine in up-tempo offensive, defensive player can't really shine in No-D team (e.g. anyone that can't shoot playing for D'Antoni or Don Nelson). That's why if Nellie is in control, I am not sure if he would pick Favors over Motiejunas (just see how things worked out for Anthony Randolph)
9) Offense VS Defense - the player needs to be constructive on one side to be enough to compensate the incompetence on the other end.
10) Leadership - this really doesn't matter since you should only have 2 to 3 leaders on a team and the player needs to be good enough to command respect in order to provide leadership.
Conclusion - pick BPA over need. Character is very important. Physical talent and basketball IQ can be considered together.
the thing about bosh is he seems very happy in toranto and from his commits he likes being the main up there and loves being the star player on the team. fans think other wise but if you follow his comments youll find that the chances are very good that he stays up there
The team has to know if they need a role player or a player with star potential. Some teams with alot of talent should draft to fill holes and add depth. If a team is only filled with role players then the team has to take a chance on a guy with higher upside. I always bring up the Knicks but they are a good example. Thats why they are in their current predicament. Walsh isnt much of a risk taker. Isiah Thomas was a great drafter because he picked players with good athleticism and upside.
example: Hill over Jennings
Another big thing to look for is personality. Competetiveness and the ability to handle the spotlight are biggies.
I would not be surprised that Bosh staying with Toronto because:
1) Toronto can give him most money
2) He has been here for a long time and feels comfortable
3) He wants to be the man
4) Toronto is a pretty good city (if you ask most of the NBA players, Toronto is definitely one of the more entertaining places, however, the crossing border thing is annoying)
My point is that I think the Raptors would be better off S&T him for good young players, draft picks, etc because they can get the most this way.
With a not too good team, the Raptors would be making playoff at best and hardly be a contender. Without a contender status, this would eventually wear Bosh out (and he would certainly get a lot of bashing from the fans). This may turn Bosh out and have him frustrated hence demand a trade (I can see this happens in 2 years).
If by then Bosh is making near 20 mil a season, it would be very tough for the Raptors to get any good return for his huge contract. If he doesn't play up to par, he may even be seen as a toxic contract (see what happened to Gilbert Arenas b4 his gun incident, and btw, I still think the Wizards set Arenas up for failure in a plot to get rid of his 111mil contract).
You just need to see what happened to Wince Harder after he got the big contract and things didn't work out the way he hoped in Toronto. You would know what I mean.
couple reasons i dont agree. the other teams would low ball toranto. anytime you are trading a star you wont get fair value.
2- bosh will make sure hes traded to a team that is gonna be competitive so toranto would be getting a high draft pick for him