My Own NCAA Bubble Watch
We're exactly one month away from Selection Sunday, and I thought I would do my own Bubble watch, so here goes.
Teams that are locks by conference.
Big 12- Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Texas, and Baylor
Big Ten- Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State
Big East- Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown, and Pittsburgh
ACC- Duke and Wake Forest
SEC- Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee
Atlantic 10- Temple and Xavier
MWC- New Mexico and BYU
Teams that have work to do by conference
Big 12- Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Missouri
Big Ten- Illinois and Northwestern
Big East- Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida, Seton Hall, Marquette, and St. Johns
I am only putting St. Johns here because if they catch fire and get big wins down the stretch they're right back in it
ACC- Georgia Tech, Maryland, Clemson, FSU, and VaTech
SEC- Ole Miss, Miss State, and Florida
Pac10- Cal, Washington, and ASU
Atlantic 10- URI, Richmond, Dayton, and Charlotte
MWC- UNLV and SDSU
MVC- UNI and Wichita St.
Conference USA- UAB, UTEP, Memphis, and Tulsa
CAA- ODU and N'Eastern
WCC- St. Mary's.
If you have any questions on teams I will give you an explanation rather than giving one now for each team.
I believe Illinois and Virginia Tech are locks right now for the tourney.
If Illinois can beat either Purdue, Wisconsin, or Ohio State then I will say they are a lock otherwise not yet.
Georgia Tech, yeah I would say they're pretty much a lock, one more quality win would solidify that.
Yeah, I did mean Georgia Tech, for some reason I put Va Tech. I also think Marquette will get in, but I am just being biased there.
Good list by the way.
Thanks I appreciate it. I think the beauty of the Big East is there are so many quality teams year in and year out that if you're at the bottom and get some big wins like a St. Johns they can sneak into the tournament. You just never know.
Some teams like St. John's, Northwestern, and Seton Hall won't get in but in large part I agree with that list.
While it is very likely they will not get in. They have the benefit of playing very good teams down the stretch.
St.Johns plays Seton Hall, Marquette, Pittsburgh, South Florida, and Syracuse before the Big East Tournament. I mean say they were to go 2-3 with one of the wins against either Syracuse or Pittsburgh that's huge on top of there 2 OOC wins over Siena and Temple. I think St. Johns is the best example out of the teams you mentioned above. Seton Hall's only quality OOC win was Cornell. Northwestern's only quality OOC win was over Notre Dame, which isn't that special.
i'm curious to see what happens with the pac 10. I agree that cal, washington and ASU are the only teams with at large hopes. And the conference has so much parity, who knows who wins the tournament.
Cal: 17-8, rpi 24, sos 1
washington: 17-8, rpi 52, sos 45
ASU: 18-8, rpi 64, sos 78
all of these teams should get to 20 or more wins. Cal is a lock as of right now and have played the toughest schedule in america. Washington has won 5 of their last 6 games and seems to be headed in the right direction. They certainly have the talent. ASU is not that impressive, but if they win 21 games, you have to include them in the discusiion for bubble teams.
I think the Pac10 is going to end up getting 2 teams no matter what the "experts" think it will be just one, but I disagree. I think Cal will get in 95% sure, and either Washington or ASU will win the Pac10 tournament. It's a shame the Pac10 is weak this year considering all the talent went to the NBA. James Harden 3rd overall, Jordan Hill 8th overall, Demar DeRozan 9th overall, Jrue Holiday and Darren Collison 17th and 21st respectively, and Taj Gibson 26th overall. 6 Pac 10 guys went in Round 1 alone. As well as another 3 guys going in the upper half of the 2nd round.
llperez...Cal's SoS is 5th as of today. They are 0-4 against top 50rpi teams but they should still get in based on that high SoS and rpi.
What I hope to see is my favorite mid-major conference, the CAA, get 2 bids. I think it's only possible if ODU beats UNI on Friday, and a team other than ODU wins the CAA tournament. Though, I don't see that happening.
True. They have alot of work to do though.
I think Cal is the only team in the Pac-10 that even deserves mention. But I'm willing to bet that Washington gets in for some reason only God knows.
i just checked espn's ranking as of today and it had cal 1 sos. Last week it was number 2.
Anyways, i find it hard to believe that any team in the pac 10 would have the number 1 sos, so it wouldn't surprise me if they were lower.
go to realtimerpi.com I like it better than ESPN's rankings personally. I think theirs is more official as well as accurate.
iggy, washington was 10-2 outside of conference and has turned it aorund winning 5 of the last 6. I agree the numbers might not be very impressive, but there is no doubt in my mind they have talent. Pondexter, Overton, THomas are all terrific players and the team has size down low. I think there are 2 teams in the pac 10 capable of winning a game in march, and they are cal and washington, so not ssure why you would have no idea why they are mentioned.
But what do you guys think of possible expansion to 96 teams????
I'm not sure. I heard them talking about that 96 teams on the radio. I kinda like the idea of adding more upset possibilities and including more small conference teams in the big dance. And it would only add one extra day so it seems like a good idea.
At first I was all for it, but this past weekend I did a really close look to see if there are 96 teams even worthy of being in the NCAA Tournament if it were to expand, and I got between 70-75 teams worthy of the NCAA tournament, so if it does expand and an expansion to 68 would be reasonable. Also, since the NCAA is all about money and big conference schools, do you think right now 11 teams in the Big East are NCAA worthy because I don't. I think at the very very very best 9, but that's it.
There are quite a few teams with 2 good players (Overton is not a terrific player, he's a good on-ball defender) that won't be getting in the tourny. And if they have 3 terrific players, why are they a bubble team? They aren't that good, let's not go overboard. Washington can't even win unless they are at their own gym. They won't be a threat to win a game in the tourny.
well i dissagree iggy. Pondexter and thomas are both nba talents and i didn't say overton was great, but he is a very underrated player on both ends of the court. Washington is talented and was ranked 16th in the nation before conference play started. They then went on a tough streak where they dropped like 6 out of 8 games but have since turned it around. Honestly, their struggling shows the pac 10 is not as cup cake as some may believe. Besides, put the numbers aside and watch washington play, they have length inside spot shooters, 3 gaurds that can all get into the lane and an all-american caliber player leading the way in pondexter. They will compete with anyone come march if they make it.
knicksfan, yeah that might be the problem. .500 teams from every major conference would get in and then you have a more dilluted field. But if they added more mid majors it might add somelittle excitment to the tournament. Truth is i don't care too much one way or the other, but i think it might be nice.
If the expansion benefited a team that goes 15-1 in there conference loses in the conference tournament and doesn't get an at-large due to a weak conference. Then I would be for expansion, though I know that won't happen because no one cares about the regular season champion of the NEC or the Summit they care about a big school in a big conference.
They don't defend well, they can't win away from their home gym , they don't have any true outside shooter, and they don't have much depth at all. I think they are 1 and done if/when they get there.
Any team that wins only 1 road game throughout there entire season is in trouble when they have to play in the tourny.
if they expanded, then i think they should give every conferences regular season and tournament winner an invite. In many cases, those are the same team so it wouldnt add too many mid majors. But i think if a small conference school handles their business all season, they should get invited. One of my favorite memories from last seasons tournament was when Cal State Northridge held the lead the enitre game against memphis until the final 5 minutes. That was exciting and what the tournament is all about.
I agree with you. That was very exciting. It would not add to many mid-majors, but still it will still be very hard to find 96 teams, which I don't think exist.
CBS has an 11 billion dollar contract with the NCAA that it could opt out of after this year. A 96 team tourney would add another week to the schedule and go into April. CBS would have to back out because it has a contract with the Masters. ABC would probably jump all over the chance to get NCAA coverage. ABC=ESPN=Vitale=Duke would get an automatic bid every year no matter what.
It would be nice to have Dicky V do the tournament since he is so involved in the regular season.
It would be nice to have Dicky V do the tournament since he is so involved in the regular season.
well they are 1-6 on the road, they play a bunch of road games down the stretch and that win number should rise. And turner is a good outside shooter as is thomas. Overton is a terrific bench player and mathew bryan manning (sp) is a very decent inside player. Trust me, they have talent. Besides, the whole conversation is about who should get mention for the bubble and possiby make it and you said they should not be in the discussion. I seriously dissagree. I'm not saying they are a great team or a sweet 16 team, but they have plenty of talent and their season is solid enough to get in.
He shoots the same percentage as Evan Turner, but Turner isn't that good a shooter.
They have 1 quality win, and that win was against a Cal team that they lost to in their 2nd meeting. They're season hasn't been all that good. They have 2 future NBA players in Thomas and Pondexter, but so did Florida when they had Nick Calathes and Maureesse Speights, and they never made the tourny. Washington has to get some wins away from their house to end the season before they definitely make the tourny. They really haven't done anything that more than a slew of teams can't say they've done.
i agree, thus i said they need to finish strong and are currently on the bubble. but based on how they been playing for the last month (cal being the one exception) they seem to be on the right track and i think they do finish strong and get in. I'm not even arguing for ASU becasue they don't have a very talented team in my book, so i don't care about the 18 wins. But washington does have talent, no question about that. You started this debate by saying washingotn should not be in the discussion and i can fully see why they are in the discussion and rightfully so.
also iggy, washington beat texas AM and had a narrow single digit loss to georgetown.
You can say Texas A&M is a quality win. I can give you that, even though they also are a team that will probably be a one-and-done team. But that's neither here nor there.