2008 Olympics Blog: Day 10

Yesterday, Team China was eliminated in convincing fashion by Lithuania. Many of the Chinese I have talked to are dissapointed, but know that a loss was inevitable. "We're not very good at basketball. We're good at ping-pong" is a line I have often heard.

In the last four years, China has improved and will continue to improve. A traditional Asian power, China has won 15 of the last 17 Asian Championships. But, before recently, China struggled against the rest of the world, and would find themselves not playing in medal-rounds.

In recent tournaments, however, the Chinese have beaten mid-level European nations, including Slovenia and Germany. In the 2006 World Championships and the 2008 Olympics, they advanced to the medal-round. This year in Beijing, China had a real chance to beat 2006 World Champions, Spain, but ultimately fell in overtime. The loss to Lithuania will hurt fans and players alike, but there are positives to be taken away from this tournament.

The future especially looks bright for China.

Nobody questions the skill of China's big men. Yao Ming is an NBA superstar, the Chinese have a glut of seven-footers to flank him.

The Chinese will ultimately need to develop better guards in order for them to take the next step on the international level. But, is the Chinese development system capable of doing that?

In a country that has benefited greatly from capatilism, there are still sectors that suffer at the hands of centralized control. China's national basketball league, the CBA, is one of those sectors. It is largely still government run, contracts are highly regulated, and player's schedules are still tightly controlled by their teams. Most players are not allowed to play in better leagues in Europe, and thus their progression and development is limited by the poor level of competition the CBA has to offer.

But, judging from recent comments made by David Stern, there is hope for Chinese players. As the Beijing Blog linked to yesterday, the NBA is extremely interested in tagging up with the CBA to create an NBA-sponsored league. Whether this is just a ploy to make some profit for the league, or a geniune attempt to bring Western training techniques and development strategies over is not yet clear. But, the potential move has to be looked at as a positive for the Chinese national team.

Looking beyond the restrictions that China puts on its pool of players, let's look at the current list of young players that China can build around for the future.

Yi Jianlian didn't play well in his rookie season, but he is young and has the physical tools needed to become a good player. He has just been recently traded to a New Jersey Nets squad that offers him an area to live in that isn't under constant winter, and an Asian community where he feels comfortable in, which should be beneficial to his development. (Seriously, though. Yi was born and raised in southern China, where the weather is hot and sticky all year-round. You're telling me that the freezing weather of Milwaukee had nothing to do with his struggles?)

Sun Yue will be headed to the Lakers next year, where he can pick the brains of Derek Fisher and Kobe Bryant, and learn the game's nuances from Phil Jackson and Tex Winter. Even if he doesn't stick around in the NBA, the experience will be beneficial to him and the national team.

Chen Jianhua is another young player who has some potential. Though the Beijing Blog loves to bash Chen Jianghua, the 19 year old point-guard still has ample time to develop an understanding of the game, and could find himself in the NBA within a couple of years.

There's also some players that have NBA potential down the road. Liu Xiaoyu is a point-guard that enjoys good height at 6-4, and he is expected to make the national team soon. His strong ability in passing may be just what the Chinese need at that position. Han Shuo is another prospect who was born in 1989, and turned some heads in 2005 with his strong play at the Nike All-American camp.

As currently constructed, China is going to continue to be mediocre. If they are to tap into their enormous population properly, they will need to ultimately open up the restrictions placed on its players. Other parts of China has opened its doors to the market, we'll see if China's basketball system is affected.

No links today, but there's still plenty to keep you interested.

Here's a preview of tomorrow's semi-final round.

Spain - Lithuania

This could be an interesting matchup. The Lithuanians have played extremely well against every opponent not named Australia, and Spain is a team that has struggled at points, but is still one of the tournaments favorites.

Lithuania's chances to win start on the perimeter. They are led by their outstanding trio of Sarunas Jasikevicius, Ramunas Sisauskas and Rimantas Kaukenas. They are all skilled, and they all have a history of winning.

Kaukenas, who played his college ball at Seton Hall, has won two consecutive Serie A championships in Italy, playing for Siena.
Sisauskas is the most decorated European player in the last two years. In 2006-2007, he won the Euroleague championship, the Greek Cup championship and the Greek League championship with Greek superpower Panathinaikos. In 2008 with CSKA Moscow, he won another EuroLeague title, as well as the Russian league title.

Jasikevicius' list of individual and team triumphs are too long to list. You can look at them here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%A0ar%C5%ABnas_Jasikevi%C4%8Dius.

The Lithuanians also have Linas Kleiza, who has enjoyed a great tournament thus far. He's shot over 50% from the field, and has grabbed 6 rebounds per contest to go along with 14 points.

Both Sisauskas and Jasikevicius were on the 2003 Eurobasket squad that won gold, and Kaukenas was on the team that took home bronze in 2007. Lithuania's stars been in big spots before, and will be unafraid of the magnitude of tommorrow's game.

The Lithuanians' strengths in their ability to shoot the three. Their strong backcourt has a lot do with that, but its also their ability to shoot as a total unit (seven guys have at least 13 attempts from three). As a team, they've shot 40.3% on 143 attempts and if they're going to pull it off against Spain, they'll have to be on from three.

The Spanish lead a more balanced approach. Spain, like their opponents, also enjoys a deep pool of talented guards to send out onto the floor. Just how good are the Spanish smalls? Jose Calderon, the best point guard in the Eastern Conference, comes off the bench. Ricky Rubio, Juan Carlos Navarro, Rudy Ferndandez and Felipe Reyes all play big minutes, and are all excellent players. Lithuania has a great backcourt, but so does Spain.

The real edge for Spain is up front. Nobody on Lithuania is over seven feet tall, and nobody who plays down low is overly skilled. That's great news if your Pau Gasol. He's had a great tournament so far, and he is likely to continue his string of impressive performances. Marc Gasol is another guy who could benefit from Lithuania's lack of size.

There's too much talent on this Spanish side for them to lose. Lithuania's ability to shoot the three may be an equalizer, but it will ultimately be the dominance of Pau Gasol that decides this one. Prediction: Spain by 15.

Argentina - United States



Kobe Bryant
In the late game, the 2004 Olympic Gold Medalists, Argentina, will go up against the undefeated and unchallenged United States.

We found out what happened when the Americans were given a chance to avenge a previous loss: http://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fe/08/olym/men/news/lateNews/p/newsid/27988/FE_news_lateNews_arti.html Will there be a repeat performance against Argentina, the team who ended their 2004 Olympic run? Basing their overall performance as an indicator, it's almost impossible to go against the United States. We all know how dominant they've been, and we all know that they are huge favorites to bring home gold.

However, I see one potential problem and one actual problem for Team USA in this game.

First, the ruggedness of the Argentine frontline has the potential to cause havoc. There are two all-NBA hombres up front http://basketbawful.blogspot.com/2008/04/word-of-day-hombre.html, Luis Scola and Andres Nocioni, and one honorable mention, Fabricio Oberto. All play big minutes in the NBA, and none of them will back down from or be intimidated by the United States. Scola is a guy who generally loves to bang down low, and his physicality could get Dwight Howard and/or Chris Bosh into foul trouble. 6-9 Roman Gutierrez and 6-11 Roman Gonzalez play in bursts to provide size and depth.

Against Australia, the United States outrebounded a bigger, supposedly more physical Australian squad by 29. It's very possible that I'm overreacting to Scola and co. The US's athleticism and depth may be enough to overcome this potential problem, but it is still something to watch.

But, lets talk about Manu Ginobili, the real issue here. This guy isn't a problem, he's more like an obstacle. In this tournament, he's shooting 60% from inside the arc. Since bricking 6 of 7 threes against Lithuania in Argentina's opening game, he's shot 16/34 from beyond the arc. He's shot 94% from the charity stripe. He's averaging 20.3 points and 4.5 assists. He has been pretty much uncontainable.

I'm of the opinion that if Ginobili wasn't hurt during the Western Conference Finals, it would have been the Spurs losing in six to the Celtics and not the Lakers. He's one of the few guys who can score from anywhere on the court, from any angle in any situation. He's a player with championship experience in both international tournaments and the NBA. He feels just as comfortable on a FIBA court than on an NBA one. In my eyes, he's a top fifteen player in the NBA. I hold him in extremely high regard.

So before you brush off Argentina, Manu must be considered. Against the USA in 2004, he dropped 29. He's capable of equalling or surpassing that performance. Individually, there isn't one guy who can totally stop him. The United States, when playing with focus and intensity, are unbeatable. If they continue to play with the same effort on defense, the same tenacity on the glass, and the same execution on offense, then the result of this game will be the same as every other one.

Prediction: "Redeem Team" by 20 in a hard fought game.

That's it for this post. Zaijain.