Everyone talks about a player's ceiling when talking lottery picks, but few people talk about their "floors".
For example, While Derrick Favours has a high ceiling, his floor is pretty low as he could easily end up like Andre blatche if he doesn't put in the work.
Compare that with Evan Turner.
His ceiling is probably a Brandon Roy, but his floor is perhaps a poor man's version of Caron Butler. Personally, I'd take someone with a high "floor" in the Lottery because VERY VERY few high-ceiling players pan out the way we imagine.
In the next few years, which players have a very high/ very low floors?
i read for example about this kid whiteshide and why nbadraftnet has him so high and that he may end up like d.jordan(not that deandre cant improve his game) but they dont say that he may end up like camby or howard
But when they talk about the other raw prospect,who is projected extremely high based on his potencial and athletic ability only (d.favors)they only say the best case scenario which is stoudemire or j.smith and not onother possible scenario which is blatche,s.swift or t.thomas.
concerning e.turner thet you mention i think that the risk is lower not to turn out a very good nba player because we are not talking about a prospect-athlete but about a very good all-around bbaall player already.
Andray Blatche is not really a terrible player and he is still in his early 20's. He played real well when Jamison was out. Swift I can see because he never came close to his potential. Same with Tim Thomas. I do hope Randolph and Tyrus Thomas dont fall into that category. Tyrus Thomas can still at least be a Gerald Wallace type player. Randolph looks promising and can only get better with more weight and strength. I do understand about finding player with a 'high floor" so to speak but I think as more talent is coming in getting potential in the draft is more important because there are already guys not playing the NBA that are ready to play but lack star potential either in the d league or overseas. Guy like Parker, Pargo, and some others are coming back. You have vets at like 34 and 35 willing to play for cheap and they still have game left but hey it is a young mans league.
Of the top 10 picks or so I think Patrick Patterson has about the highest floor of anyone. I think he could come in the league and average 12 and 8 right away. He may not be the freak athlete that GM's drool over and predict the next coming of Kevin Garnett or Amare, but he is at best could be a 20 10 guy, but I really don't see him any lower than a 12 and 8 guy if given decent minutes.
Derrick Favors would actually have to improve offensively to be the next Andray Blatche. Blatche is perimeter oriented and a pretty talented offensive player. He's also softer than Favors and less of a presence defensively. I think at worst, Favors is like a Steven Hunter..Athletic and a shot-blocker with poor offensive skills and basketball IQ..I think Motiejunas has the lowest floor of all prospects though, because he could be like Dirk or he could be like Nikolav Tskitishviti..
I think Evan Turner easily has the highest floor too. I think his floor is Caron Butler, but not a poor man's Butler. I mean the Caron Butler that does everything well and has made the All-Star team.
John Wall also has a high floor and he could be the next D.Wade or at worst the next Steve Francis.
another point is that evan turners ceiling is higher because hes a jr( or is he a sr). its more common i think for a young player to have a lower ceiling because you've only seen him for a year and dont know all of his weaknesses yet and they are mostly potential at that point