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The Leagues 3rd Most Productive Player? (versus last year)

Slim
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The Leagues 3rd Most Productive Player? (versus last year)

Josh Smith as Superman

But then there is Josh Smith. The Hawks selected Josh Smith with the 17th pick in the 2004 draft. Across the next five seasons, he posted the following numbers:

12,533 minutes played

35.9 Wins Produced

0.138 WP48

Last season, Smith produced 5.9 wins and posted a 0.116 WP48. Yes, Josh Smith was a bit above average. But he was not one of the most productive players employed by Atlanta. And what we have seen from Josh Smith had been remarkably consistent for five seasons (and more than 10,000 minutes of playing time).

Something, though, had happened to Josh Smith. And if this continues, this could be THE STORY of the 2009-10 season. Table One reports what Josh Smith had done across his career.

Table One: The Career of Josh Smith

Prior to this season, Josh Smith’s career numbers indicate that he was slightly below average with respect to shooting efficiency, rebounds, and turnovers. He could, though, block shots, get steals, and get assists. So on average, he was a bit above average. But he was hardly outstanding.

Thus far in 2009-10, though, Josh Smith is one of the most productive players in the entire NBA. No, I don’t just mean on the Hawks. If Josh Smith was this productive in 2008-09, only Chris Paul and LeBron James would have produced more wins. That is how good Josh Smith is playing.

So what is he doing well? Well, his shooting efficiency had increased dramatically. But relative to last year, he is also getting more rebounds, blocked shots, steals, and assists. And he has reduced his turnovers. In sum, across the board Josh Smith is a much more productive player.

Converting all these numbers into wins we – if this production continues – Josh Smith will finish the 2009-10 season with 22.4 Wins Produced and a 0.387 WP48. Again, only Chris Paul and LeBron James did more last season.

To put Josh Smith’s production in perspective, let’s imagine that all the players on the Hawks keep doing what they are doing in 2009-10, but Josh Smith only produces at the level we saw in 2008-09. If that happens, the Hawks should expect to win 47.2 wins. Yes, without this amazing leap in Josh Smith’s production, the Hawks would be essentially the same.

So it appears that the Hawks did have a plan. The plan was for a five-year veteran who had never been much better than average to suddenly become one of the very best players in the game. In essence, the Hawks were hoping that Josh Smith could suddenly offer the same production the Orlando Magic get from Dwight Howard [22.2 Wins Produced and 0.378 WP48 in 2008-09].

Now had I know about this “plan” (i.e. Josh Smith is now going to be as productive as Dwight Howard), I would have definitely agreed that the Hawks were going to get better. But to be honest, I just didn’t see this coming.

And again, if this continues then this should be the story of the 2009-10 season. A slightly above average NBA veteran has suddenly become another Superman. I can’t remember seeing something like this happen in all the years of NBA data I have examined. So what we are seeing from Josh Smith is truly something special.
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/11/19/the-story-of-the-2009-10-season-m...


Slim
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most productive player on

if this production continues – Josh Smith will finish the 2009-10 season with 22.4 Wins Produced and a 0.387 WP48. Again, only Chris Paul and LeBron James did more last season.

yet he can't get in ASG

thumbs down to that!

llperez
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mvp caliber? No

mvp caliber? No

Slim
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Converting all these numbers

Converting all these numbers into wins we – if this production continues – Josh Smith will finish the 2009-10 season with 22.4 Wins Produced and a 0.387 WP48. Again, only Chris Paul and LeBron James did more last season.

To put Josh Smith’s production in perspective, let’s imagine that all the players on the Hawks keep doing what they are doing in 2009-10, but Josh Smith only produces at the level we saw in 2008-09. If that happens, the Hawks should expect to win 47.2 wins. Yes, without this amazing leap in Josh Smith’s production, the Hawks would be essentially the same.

Slim
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MVP caliber production based

MVP caliber production based off of what Dwight Howard does

Brandon Jennings was in the conversation earlier this year lol

yet he cant be in the discussion, at the very least Defensive POY

bcuz MVP has media bias written all over it,

I'm not sure the MVP title isn't cursed at this point (last couple of years winner loses in playoffs)

personally I'd rather have a finals MVP like Tony Parker or Chauncey Billups or a DPOY

llperez
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i think smith is very good.

i think smith is very good. But this topic states that smith is mvp caliber, and he's not. I don't care what some stats say. I watch him play and he is not an mvp. But if you disagree and think guys like lebron, kobe, nash and duncan only get the award over guys like Josh Smith becasue of media bias, then i guess we just disagree.

arman
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hes not a mvp...

First of all im a big fan of J-Smoove and i thought that this is gonna be his breakout year....Its not but he didnt disapoint he plays on level that his was a year before, he could be an mvp if there wasnt JJ and if he plays 40 mpg and haves like 30 shots per game but hawks arent that kind of team so he cant be an mvp. I think that he deserved to be an allstar and in about few years he could be in mvp conversation.

the I in win
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not MVP caliber but he has

not MVP caliber but he has been better by far this year. If he rebounded with the tenacity that Gerald Wallace does he would be a great player. I'm just glad he isn't taking many three's anymore.

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josh smith isn't even the

josh smith isn't even the best player on his team let alone the entire league..he's barely all-star caliber, a good player but at 16 and 8 theres no reason for him to garner any interest as an MVP of the league

nba00
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no he is not underrated

he is good, I believe he deserves to be in the allstar game, but mvp I dont think so. He has not reached that level yet and on their team joe is the mvp caliber for me.

Slim
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if this production continues

if this production continues – Josh Smith will finish the 2009-10 season with 22.4 Wins Produced and a 0.387 WP48. Again, only Chris Paul and LeBron James did more last season.

the lake show
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im not all about the numbers

im not all about the numbers when i think allstar or mvp. you can watch and see who should be a allstar and who should be a mv. i dont care if the numbers say hes the best in the history of the game if i dont see it when he plays

apb540
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stats

A lot more to basketball than stats, just read The Book of Basketball and u will understand.

apb540
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stats

A lot more to basketball than stats, just read The Book of Basketball and u will understand.

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