The Rookie Wall, Tyreke will win rookie of the year, and 3????
We all know it is coming, we just never know when. The dreaded rookie wall. Over the years we have seen a number of good young players explode onto the scene, only to see their development stunted by fatigue and/or injury. The rookie of the year is generally the player who not only exhibits tremendous talent but also the durability and mental constitution to press forward through 82 long games, or roughly 2.5 times the duration of a championship season in the NCAA.
The question has been, will a perimeter player win the ROY? Or will it be Big Man Du Jour? With Blake losing the beginning of the season to injury, 'Reke drastically underrated and the explosive scoring displayed by Brandon Jennings the easy pick was to annoint Jennings the odds on favorite following his huge 55 point display. I myself was caught up in the hype. True Jennings has otherworldly quickness and a jumper that is much more cash than credit, still history would indicate that as the season grows longer and the balance between quickness and physicality, which I will define as a combination of strength and height, begins to favor physicality the taller perimeter player will emerge as the favorite shedding his dark horse status and reclaiming what should have rightfully been his all of the time, pole position in the race for ROY.
Player: Min/ Pts/ Fg%/ Ast/ Reb/ Stl
James: 39.5/ 20.9/ .417/ 5.9/ 5.5/ 1.6
Durant: 34.6/ 20.3 / .430/ 2.4/ 4.3/ 1.0
Rose: 37.0/ 16.8/ .475/ 6.3/ 3.9/ .8
Evans: 37.0/ 20.3/ .461/ 4.9/ 5.1/ 1.5
Jennings: 35.0/ 19.5/ .408/ 6.1/ 3.7/ 1.0
The numbers between the three perimeter ROY winners and this years front runners are pretty similar, but the dominance for all around perimeter players with physicality really becomes evident as the season draws out, this can be seen when the season splits of Evans and Jennings are compared.
Oct/Nov Games (between 15-16)
Player: Pts/ Fg%/ Ast/ Reb/ Stl
Evans: 18.9/ .449/ 4.8/ 5.3/ 1.3
Jennings: 21.7/ .435/ 5.8/ 4.0/ 0.9
December Games (between 13-14)
Player: Pts/ Fg%/ Ast/ Reb/ Stl
Evans: 22.1/ .476/ 5.1/ 5.3/ 1.6
Jennings: 16.5/ .376/ 6.7/ 3.4/ 0.8
Charting the numbers It seems pretty apparent that Tyreke is getting stronger, or rather being able to use his strength and sive (physicality) over the course of the season (30 game equivalent: Conference tourney time NCAA), while the travel, and NBA scheduling, and increased phyical demands of the American professional gae seem to be sapping some of the lightning out of Jennings feet. If history holds true then Tyreke Evans should win the ROY going away. Since Redd will be getting more touches, and K. Martin will return soon the influence both rookies exert on their teams should remain static compared to one another.
That said, do you think Tyreke or Jennings will win ROY?
Will another player come out of the pack to overtake the favorites? Why?
No. Steph Curry could make it interesting if his team passed him the ball in rhythm but that will NEVER happen, Griffin has too much ground to make up and they wil shut him down if the knee flairs up the tiniest bit. So it is Evans, Jennings 1/2.
And who from next years Draft do you predict winning ROY based solely on game and measurables, regardless of draft position?
1. John Wall (Good pg size, Gary Payton with a better stroke younger and elite athleticism, just ask Jerry Stackhouse)
2. Evan Turner (Fills a stat sheet, which voters love, mature, jumper needs work. Top 2 Only if his back is okay)
3. Xavier Henry (He is a pretty good athlete with an Old Man's smooth game, hence his role on a vet team. 1 yr stronger/smarter next year. Look out he really could win it, I have just seen Wall more)
4. Wesley Johnson (Can flat out score from so many areas, athletic, but after the transfer will his new found success go to his head.
I thought it was funny when everybody got caught up in the Jennings hype. I consistenly kept saying that teams didn't know how to scout him yet... They didn't have any game film on him. I said the true test would come 25-30 games into the season and it did. People were ready to declare Jennings an elite point guard in the first two weeks of the season... People actually had him ranked higher than Rose and Westbrook, which he is NOT. Not yet.
I think Evans has had the better overall season, plus the greater impact. He's better than we all thought. I'm willing to put my money on him to win rookie of the year, BUT... I still have to see how he adapts when Martin returns.
As far as next season goes... I like Evan Turner.
starvucks did you come up with this or did you get it from a site?..if so make sure you add the source
Give me Evans this season (I was one who fell in love with Jennings too fast possibly Tezo, but he could rebound and be elite after the break) as he's been more consistent than all of the other rookies, and he's had the greater impact of all of them for the most part.
I think Turner wins it next year, he's the most NBA-ready player in the projected 2010 draft...He's also so going to get thrown in the ire for a bottom feeder more than likely (unless Utah uses it's pick on him) so he'll get a big chance to have a high level of production..
and i also liked and still do like jennings. his shot has been in a slump (scoring seems to be what people on look at sometimes) but his court awareness and assist have gotten better which is what you want out of a pg. if i want a sg i take evans if i want a pg i take jennings
No link, I borrowed stats from NBA.com and crunched the numbers myself so there may be minor varience in the decimals. Seriously I am a fan of what you and some of the other site vets post so I am just trying to keep my posts relavent, and spur some educated discussion. Since my Sonics bounced and my left knee went this is as good as hoops gets for me, besides watching.
I think Jennings will be a great point guard, but not an elite one. Tyreke on the other hand... I think he can be an elite player in the NBA. He has the size, strength, ball handling and finishing ability to do it.
Jennings had the rep of a player who could break you down off the dribble a la Allen Iverson, but I haven't seen it. 99% of his points come from the screen and role.
Whether you declare Evans a point or two, I think he'll be the better player. He has all of the tools, plus the go-to mentality.
Not sure if the rookie wall is a myth or overrated, but guys who win ROY tend to not be effected by it. Look at the stats of these winners in their rookie year.
FG % Pts Ast
Pre-allstar 40.2 19.4 2.3
Post-allstar 47.6 21.9 2.7
FG % Pts Ast
Pre-allstar 43.4 15.4 3.4
Post-allstar 48.5 18.7 4.9
FG % Pts Ast
Pre-allstar 47.3 17.0 6.3
Post-allstar 48.0 16.5 6.3
FG % Pts Ast
Pre-allstar 40.5 20.4 5.8
Post-allstar 43.8 21.8 6.1
FG % Pts Ast
Pre-allstar 43.2 15.9 7.7
Post-allstar 42.7 16.5 8.0
pretty obvious most guys improve as the season goes, or at least stay the same, statistically at least.
when you look at it that way yeah but when you combine all the rookies who play a good amount of minutes then you can see why they say someone has hit the rookie wall. but yeah if you just take those guys instead of the majority then it looks like most guys improve even though most dont
Man i like both of them alot but i still will rather have jennings jennings is a beast this guy averages 20 and 7 and he only is 170 and dude gets the job done reke is the better scorer yeah people talkin about jennings is struggling and he was overhyped yall forgot redd is back and they got bogut and scott siles said they are his number 1 and 2 options and bucks were losing by 20 last night jennings bout them back and score 14 points of his 24 points in the 4th quarter. He finished with 24points and 7 assist last night. Jennings points went down when bogut and redd came back healthy the same will happen with reke when kevin martin come back.
After the love is gone, what used to be right is wrong...Earth Wind and Fire.
After the quicks go, and they do ask MJ, you have to have a skill set and physicality to fall back on, height, strength, and handles for 'Reke are outstanding, as he matures if he develops a post game, and either a mid range step back J, and/or a turn around fall away J from either elbow, his six foot six could really start to look like the steal of the draft. Will he be more Penny or MJ? I can't wait to see how he develops.
You have to put the amount of games and minutes they played up there. I know Brandon Roy didn't play anywhere near close to a full season.
Blake Griffin for example assuming he comes back before the All-Star break. Obviously his numbers will be better post All-Star break than pre because he was injured the first half of the season.
i have to comment on the evans compared to penny thing. why are people comparing them?..to me they arent really a like numbers may be similar but when i watch one i dont think about the other. and im not gonna even get on the evans mj thing because hes not mj. i like him an di think hes gonna be a very good player but i dont see mj
people are overlooking jennings because he isn't scoring as much in recent weeks, but jennings is running that team and doing a great job of distributing. Tyreke will probably win rookie of the year but just like Derrick Rose next season when people are expecting him, he will get shut down because he can't shoot. meanwhile jennings will be off leading his team to bigger and better places.
Quincy, back up what you say with something more then personal opinion.
Anyway, I said that the guys who win the ROY tend to not be effected by the wall, I never denied that it existed. I was just showing that there was a possible correlation that the guys who succeed as rookies are the ones who can come in and deal with the 82 game schedule grind. Sorry I didn't connect the dots for you better.
Roy played 34 before the break and 23 after his rookie year. The rest of the guys I cited stayed relatively healthy through their rookie seasons, which translates to about 50 games before the break, and about 30 after.
I think Jennings is the better player, and will be ROY. They both have the stats and their teams are improved, but one guy has that 55 on his resume.I am worried about one thing though; and that is that Jennings hasn't even shown the ability to break his mad down off the dribble, as Tezo said. We all know he can do it, but we haven't seen it. Until he realizes that he can get past his defender whenever he wants he will be held back...And we haven't even seen his finishing ability because he never drives the damn bal.
???..what do i need to back up besides personal opinion?..evans and jordan?..jordan was better as a rookie?..more dominate better player...do i really need to back that up?..i mean really?..and i watched penny and i watch evans. they arent the same player. thats a fact. no one knows the futre so you could say wayne ellington could be the next jordan so everything anyone says about how good a player will be int he future is opnion right?