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foreign players overrated?

llperez
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foreign players overrated?

Just was curious since a number of users seem to thnk that foreign players tend to be over valued or turn out to be busts, so I did some research on the all the drafts from "96 through '06. I wanted to see if the foreign picks tend to pan out or bust.

During those 11 draft classes, a total of 50 international players were taken in the first round. I will exclude 2nd rounders since you can't call a second rounder a bust. Here's how it breaks down:

Player's taken top 10: Dirk Nowitzky 9th, Pau Gasol 3rd, Yao MIng 1st, Nikola Tskitishvilli 5th, Nene 7th, Darko Milicic 2nd, Andrea Bargani 1st, Saer Sene 10th.

Clearly Darko, Tkitishvilli, and Sene were busts. Too early to tell with Barganni, especially considering rest of top 5 that year was nothing too special. On the flip side, Gasol and Dirk should have gone higher. While Nene and Ming were solid picks.

picked 11-19
Chris Antsey, Peja Stojakovic, Rasho Nesterovic, Mirsad Turcan, Frederick Weis, Hidayet Turkoglu, Vladimir Radmanovic, Bostjian Nachbar, Jiri Welsch, Mickael Pietrus, Zarko Cabarkapa, Alexander Pavlovic, Andris Biedrins, Fran Vasquez, Yori Korolev, Thabo Sefolosha, Olekskyi Pecherov

The guys from this list that busted based on where they were picked are: Turcan, Weis, Cabarkapa, Vasquez and Korolev. Peja, Turkoglu, and Biedrins could have all been drafted higher. Meanwhile, Antsey, Nesterovic, Radmanovic, Nachbar, Welsch, Pietrus, Pavlovic, Sefolosha, and Pecherov were solid picks.

picked in 20's
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Efthimas Rentzias, Martin Mursepp, Priest Lauderdale, Vladimir Stepania, Andrie Kirilenko, Dalibor Bagaric, Jake Tsakalidis, Primoz Brezec, Raul Lopez, Tony Parker, Nenad Krisic, Boris Diaw, Zoran Planic, Carlos Delfino, Leandro Barbosa, Pavel Podkolzine, Victor Khryapa, Sergei Monia, Sasha Vujacic, Beno Udrih, Johan Petro, Mana Mahinimii, Sergio Rodriguez, Joel Freeland.

picks in the 20's are also hard to call bust since many players don't make it in the league picked this late. As you can see from this list, there are a number of solid players as well as guys who never did anything.

Some notable second rounders:Manu Ginobli, Luis Scola, Marko Jaric, Gordon Giricek, Mehmet Okur, Zaza Pachulia, Andersen Verajao, and Marcin Gortat.

Looking at this list, I don't think foreign players bust nearly as much as people seem to think.


d-grizzly
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nice post

i think garcia was in the later 20's too right? he could fit in the "picked in 20's" section.

blazer_fan_forever
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really?

Too early to tell with Barganni, especially considering rest of top 5 that year was nothing too special...Ever heard of Brandon Roy or Lamarcus Aldridge?

thunderforthewin
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forgot

you forgot bogut

llperez
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roy was not a top 5 pick.

roy was not a top 5 pick. Aldrideg is better, but not so clearly that you would say toronto made a huge mistake.

blazer_fan_forever
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That's true

Yeah, forgot that Roy wasn't a top-5 pick.

Lemons4Life
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Point

Good point. I have to say most of the time they are, but there are a few like Dirk. The ones I think that will be ok are: Nicolas Batum-already in the NBA, but is quite solid for Portland. Also, has some crazy dunks.
Vitor Faverani-tall Brazilian center, very athletic.
Tim Ohlbrecht-Next Dirk? Too early to tell. Good player? Yes.
Zhou Peng-not sure if his name is right, but I like his future if he gets into the NBA.

llperez
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I did not include

I did not include international players like Bogut and Garcia who played college ball. This is strictly guys drafted from over seas.

Michael.S.
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Agreed,If anything Euro

Agreed,If anything Euro bigmen are more a sure thing then U.S. bigmen mainly. I just want to clear one thing up. I like Euro bigmen way more then i like their guards and wings though

Bargnani is NOT a bust nor will he ever be, he is a future all-star. Ming was not a solid pick he was a great pick, sure he got injured , can't be surprised cause he's 7'5, when healthy he is one of the best bigmen hands down.

llperez
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I can't call Ming a great

I can't call Ming a great pick because he went number 1. He has been terriffic, but he has done what a number one pick is supposed to do.

Michael.S.
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yeah, i guess you can look

yeah, i guess you can look at it that way, Is it just me or do Euro PF's shoot better then Euro PG's? hahaha

Spurs2020
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get some stats

this is great stuff to start... you should set some criteria to determine a bust, then compare what % of foreign players bust vs. American.

Also just curious, does anyone cosider someone like kenyon martin a bust?

Michael.S.
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Oh no, Kmart is not a bust,

Oh no, Kmart is not a bust, he didn't live up to his potential really, but he had a good career, especially in his N.J days

Spurs2020
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kmart

well thats why i was curious, on one hand injuries kept him from being an all-star, but its hard to call a player a bust, when you draft him and his team goes to the finals his first two years

llperez
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spurs

getting some comparisons done with all players taken in the same draft range, both foreign and American, would defintely be ideal. However, that would take quite a while to do it correctly and I'm not sure it's worth my time. Needless to say, looking at those past drafts, I saw dozens of American players that busted just as well. I just find it funny that whnever people think "foriegn pick" they automatically have Darko and Tskitishvilli jump into their heads before really taking everyting into consideration.

Spurs2020
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nyc

escpecially knicks fans

doubledribbler
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Great Post

I think the problem with the European players is that the American game is very different from their game. The American game is very much a one on one game and the athletes tend to be amazing here. Many of the European guys don't fit in the concept of American coaches. American coaches teach their big guys to bang down low. I would like to say they teach them to post up, but hardly any big guys really post up now. Europeans big guys are taught the same skills as their guards. I think a lot of these guys come here and end up bad situations. They have to learn the language, generally don't have anyone on the team from the same culture, they are learning a new style and some of them just aren't ready to play right away so they have a long learning curve.

You can look at a guy like Dirk. He's going to be a hall of famer. His first year was nothing to brag about. 8.2 points, 3.5 rebs, 40% fg and 20% from 3. That doesn't look very promising to me, but his career has been a pretty nice one. Also, I don't think that most of these guys are seen long enough or often enough for teams to really understand how good the guy is going to be. I see a lot of the Europeans as being like the high school guys. You just never know what you will get and you are drafting based on potential and the little bit that you see against guys who are not NBA caliber.

The lake show2
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these days bigs are still

these days bigs are still taught downlow moves but most want to be a sf or a point foward so they work on there guard games just as much or more then there post game. with players like dirk and other players that come in at a young age you cant really judge them too much by there rookie year. you usually have a pretty good idea what they will become by year 2..same with college players. i do believe percentage wise there are just as many american bust as euro bust though maybe more. then again i havent researched it

tabone1
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With foreign players it can

With foreign players it can get a bit hard to label. Take Juan Carlos Navarro. He only played one season, but did average double digits, 2nd team all-rookie, but didn't want to play for a losing team so he left for Real Madrid. Bust?????

Other players who left: Nachbar, Delfino, Ilyasova.

Also,there are guys like Nocioni, Oberto, Garbajosa and Calderon, who were never even drafted.

Was Barbosa mentioned?

Meditated States
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Celtics had Welch

Sorry he did not get it done and only Dirk and Pau, Manu really make a case on being taken higher in the lottery. The other guys played their position well, solid roles. Some people are cool with drafting them out of the lottery like me, but I would tread lightly on taking them sooner. Dirk, Manu, Pau being the exceptions. Just 3 guys.

llperez
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tabone

you make some good points. Guys like Navarro, Nachbar, Welsch, and Planic could have had solid careers, but probably just preferred playing in europe. And yes, Barbosa is on the list.

I was reading on the other "euro" thread where people were saying that they would never take a foreign player high because they bust more often then not. And I just think you have to take it one player at a time. Some will bust, but you don't stop drafting highschool kids because of Kwame do you. So why stop drafting foreign players because of Darko?

thunderforthewin
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gallinari? im pretty sure he

gallinari?
im pretty sure he came from an italian team.
good player still

llperez
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scput4real

Just 3 guys? So you don't like Tony Parker, Andrie Kirilenko, Hedo, Peja etc..? And Welsch was decent considering he was taken 16th. Had he gone top 10 then he would be a bust.

The lake show2
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i think jose calderon is

i think jose calderon is pretty good as well as ilgaskus,boris,rudy, and the big manthe hawks just resigned

Meditated States
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OK

I like Kirilenko but he is not an all star or a guy people say damn he should have been in the lottery 4 sure. Is he an all star? No he is not. It is not a travisty that he was not taken sooner. I am cool with foreign players, just not too early in my top 10 picks. A few exceptions that don't even equal 10 guys is not gonna make me go damn we should be taking them in the lottery often. My issue is not drafting them it's taking them real early. It is not ruining teams not taking them early every draft is it? There are american guys that should be taken early so it happens.I'm not going to take them that early because of Parker,Dirk who went in the lottery anyway, and Pau who went early too. They were lottery pics who panned out no shock there with exception 2 Parker who was not. They were lottery pics. You can't call a lottery pic underrated

llperez
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No one is saying you should

No one is saying you should take them early. The whole point of this thread is to all the people who say that foreign players are typically busts, which you did on that other thread. Go through that list and tell me how foreign players have been in comparison with American players taken in the same range. They have not established themselves as being any more unreliable then american players. You take it one player at a time. If you feel that a foreign player is worth a top 5 pick, then you take him, period. Trying to judge picks based on where they are from is a good way to fail as a GM.

Meditated States
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Understood

I don't think they bust. I just am not to crazy on taking them in the lottery early. I saw Dirk play I knew he was good. The C's were going to take him at 10, but Dallas beat us to him at 9. We took Paul Peirce. We are cool with that.

llperez
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I just think it all depends

I just think it all depends on the individual player. As a GM, if you think a foreign player is not worth top 10, don't take him. If you feel he is worth top 10, then take him, period. I'm not saying being foreign should increase your draft stock or make teams draft them higher. But it shouldn't hurt either. And I agree, Dirk or Pierce was a no lose situation for Boston. It has worked out well for them landing the truth.

Meditated States
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Your right

I agree it depends on the GM

tabone1
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The real problem with taking

The real problem with taking players from European leagues too high is that they may have serious issues with buyouts, ala Ricky Rubio, Fran Vasquez, Tiago Splitter, and then having to deal with the NBA first round rookie salary scale and a 500K NBA buyout limit.

It's actually better for teams and the European players to get drafted early in the second round, and thus not have to deal with the first round rookie scale.

And it is more common for a European player to play a season or two on the bench, not care for the lack of PT, and simply go back home to play, whereas American players are much more likely to stick it out in the NBA, and in some cases do get to become rotation players as they mature as players.

A player like Welsch or Planinic could still be playing in the NBA. Having an EU passport is also a big reason why these players are coveted by Euroleague teams and get contract offers. Limits on non-EU players make EU players a better option for most teams.

Also, language, culture, distance from home, etc. can be very big issues for any foreign player.

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