NBA Execs Believe LeBron Stays in 2010?
Posted: 8/11/2009 5:55:00 AM
Source: Sam Smith of Bulls.com
The way the Great Free Agent Class of 2010 is shaping up, (Dwyane) Wade is looking like the biggest prize.
That’s because the belief is LeBron James is most likely to return to the Cavs while Wade had a remarkable season is taking a weak Heat team to the fifth seed in the East. The Heat’s roster, by most accounts, didn’t match Toronto’s, where Chris Bosh’s team didn’t come close to making the playoffs.
The consensus among NBA executives is James will remain in Cleveland, mostly because there may not be anywhere better to go. The big threat was the Knicks. But the declining salary cap likely won’t allow the Knicks enough salary cap space to sign two free agents. The Knicks roster is awful, and it likely would be a major step back competitively for James to join a team like that. With Kobe Bryant back with a championship, it is now James—before it was Bryant when James made the Finals in 2007—who is most likely to be anxious to be with a team that has the best chance to win a championship.
The belief is the Cavs will be a better option, and, of course, can provide him the biggest contract.
I prefer the main part of that story, suggesting that Wade is planning on coming to the Bulls if the Heat don't change their ways. He even bought a house on the Chicago riverfront
I see Lebron coming to the Knicks.
yeah most knick fans want to see that no matter what anyone says. Kinda like beer goggles. Though it could happen its more and more not likely
If the Knicks move Curry's contract the Knicks would have big money to sign 2 star players. Why stay in Cleveland with that roster? Take James off the roster and the Cavs dont look that good as a roster...
I wouldn't get tooooo excited about Wade buying a place in Chi-town... Brett Favre bought/looked to buy a place in MN, and I don't see him in a Vikings uniform...
It's a buyer's market right now (meaning prices are low) so it's a good time for him to secure a good deal in a place that he'll inevitably be spending a lot of time, even after his bball career is over.
I know that the chances aren't very good right now, but its like the Knicks fans, they see everything as a sign LeBron is going to New York. i see everything as a sign of DWade comin to Chicago
Q, never underestimate the value of chemistry and trust with your teammates... I will give you that the Cavs don't have a very good roster (and it's especially weak for the future considering Z and Shaq are relative grandpas) but Delonte, Jamario, and Mo are all solid rotation players (and as good as anyone he'd play with in NY)... JJ Hickson has showed promise and Varejao is also a solid rotation guy, and the fact remains, we still don't even know if Lee or Robinson will be there, and Sessions isn't a done deal either.
All that, plus the Cavs can offer him the most money, and he's from Akron and his dream has always been to bring glory to his hometown/state... and, won't the Cavs also be under the cap and able to sign a star, just like the Knicks? I believe so... at least according to hoopshype... theyd be at about 32 mill (without LBJs player option)
Wade & Rose backcourt would be amazing...
But I dont see it happening, Wades my favorite player and as much as i'd LOVE for him to go to NYK, I just see him staying in Miami
Wade-Rose would be a devasting combo... the other team's bigs would foul out of every single game.
No, the Cavs used most thier cap space for 2009 by giving AJ 5-50mill. They wont have alot of cap space in 2010 if any. Lebron can get a big contract in Cleveland but in NY, Lebron can get more off the court money. He might be able to get a least 4-6 more endorsments in NY,
I understand chemistry but....did he not walk off the court leaving his teammates there? He will not sign that 3 year extension because he wants Cleveland to add players....with no good players to give up.
I see Lebron...no winning a title and coming to NY
checks hoopshype my man... right now they're at 48 mill (including AJ, who i'm assuming is anderson varejao) and that number also includes LBJs player option of 17 mill, which he obviously won't be exercising if he's a FA, so that brings them to about 31 mill, but then I added 1 mill for Powe....
i really think Lebron will stay with Clevaland he was raised there and i just dont see him leaving. however if Beasley is still incisistant and the Heat struggle i couls see him leaving (maybe the Knicks).
most of these stars will remain where thay are. amare is the only one that will have a chance of leaving and he may be given an ext. im sorry but lbj is cleveland, he is the man down there. wade is in love with miami. i dont see them leaving. and it does not matter whether lebron wins a ring.
Theyre not at 48 mil....try 78 mil man and the cap is around 50 mil....they are over
hahahaah that's for the 2009-2010 season, which includes LBJ's salary, Shaq's salary, and Z's salary... which are like ~47 mill altogether.... AFTER the 2009-2010 season, those will all be gone
78-47 = you guessed it! 31 mill! just like I said... i'm an accountant, adding numbers is what i do! lol
OK, 31 mil off of 48-45 mil (projected cap in 2010) then you give LBJ a max deal....where the space?
The Cavs & Knicks are pretty much in the same position financially. It just depends on what core LeBron wants to play with....who would u choose?
You also have to factor in LeBron wanting to stay home. Then again New York brings a bigger stage & bigger market.
Mo Williams, West, Gibson, Moon, Parker, Varejao.....LeBron....
Chandler, Douglas, Gallinari, Jefferies, Hill, Curry.....LeBron...
Who knows the Knicks may also have Sessions &or DLee &or Nate
Both teams will have about the same amount of cash to spend on other free agents after they sign LeBron.
you have to factor in Lebron has played in Ohio his whole life. Cleveland looks A lot better than New York on that comparison but if Lee and Robinson resign i might give the edge to them.
Q, if i'm not mistaken, can't they resign LBJ AFTER they've signed FAs? even if it puts them over the cap?
I donno, I could be wrong in that respect, but I think I'm right. The only way that wouldn't work is if they have to take his Bird rights BEFORE July 1... So I'm not 100% sure and could definitely be wrong...
Don't forget about JJ Hickson, Gator
he did play on Ohio his whole life but if he does not win a title this year...i see him leaving
This is a great source on the CBA and the salary cap... Q, check number 19, it explains Larry Bird rights... as far as I can tell, those rights do not expire before July 1
why would i sign with cleveland if i dont know if lbj will be there?
why would i sign with New York if i dont know that Lebron will be there?
lol, you just can not admit to being wrong.
NBA players are allowed to talk to each other about where they're going to sign (see: elton brand and baron davis last summer) If Chris Bosh and LBJ talk, then I'm sure they could get something worked out
In all seriousness though, to anyone who wants to be an expert on the salary cap, and really know their stuff, check out that website... if you search NBA salary cap FAQs, it's the first result in google. Knowing the salary cap and all its intricacies is valuable in the NBA, although, knowing the NEW CBA will be even MORE valuable
his h.s. friends/teammates who are now his entourage, how do you think they feel about ohio.
Because...what am i wrong about?
Yea, how did EB and Davis worked out? LBJ said to Ariza that he was gonna stay if he comes, Ariza did not believe him. I would need to see LBJ sign before I sign. Also,Cleveland is not a sexy city to attract players (D-wade said it on TV!)
People do come to NY, Lebron or Not. Stoudemire wants to come here, many other players want to come here.
Also, i proved you wrong on that cap...
You have to factor in this as well....Cleveland has their core locked in under contracts for the next 3-4 years. Meanwhile New York has two important contracts expiring in 2011- Jefferies & Curry....that is roughly $17 million off the books....Looking towards the future I think New York is a much better place for LeBron. It has already been proven that he isn't going to win with Mo, West, Gibson & Varejao. Knicks have talented young pieces.
like I said, you were not correct about the cap. You were in fact wrong MULTIPLE times... The cavs, if they are at 32 million, can sign a FA and still sign LBJ using his Bird rights, even if that puts them over the cap. (you were also wrong about them being at 78 mill, but that was just a ludicrous attempt)
And, I know EB and Davis didn't work out that well, but if LBJ talks to the guy and wants to be on his team... that might mean something now that the whole EB-Davis situation didn't work out. IDK, it could work out. I'm not saying its impossible for LBJ to be in NY, because he could also talk with a guy about signing together in NY, I just can't see LBJ passing up more money in Cleveland, his hometown team, his boys on the Cavs team...
i think there is more in cleveland besides the team. when i say lbj wont leave cleveland, it is not because of the money he is gonna make, and trust me he is gonna get paid, and one can have a debate that lasts forever on what roster is the best. but i look at what lbj has done in cleveland and what the fans have done for hima nd i say he must have the heart of a serial killer to leave. i mean it is a business but i cant see him leaving. btw theyre at like 7 mil for next season. keep in mind the cap next year will be as low as 53 million and 31 is how much theyre losing not how much under cap theyll be.
32 million is what their cap figure will be... they'll be losing a lot more than that. Shaq, LBJ, and Z will come off the book next year.
would Jordan have cared about the money that much? this is his chance to prove himself as a winner and New York is in rebuilding mode hes not gonna want to wait years to win he wants it now!
The idea that LeBron is going to walk away from what could be $30 to $35 million is almost insane, with the cap going down in a radical way, the odds LeBron walks is so slim its not even worth talking about... leaving Cleveland with more power today than last year... They can pay him far more than anyone else because they can extend him off the final year of his deal, which is far greater than what 30% of a $50 million salary cap would be.
Your still open to the threat, but the threat got a lot less realistic with a cap number at or below $50 million... keep in mind LeBron has one more year at his option worth $17.5 million, if the salary cap comes in at $50 million as some project, he's looking at a first year walk away deal at $15 million, thats before you factor the allowable increases Cleveland can and would offer.
Like Chris Bosh - they both could walk away, but if they leave its likely through a sign and trade giving their existing team a lot more control than anyone expected 16 months ago.
theyll be at 24 forgot to add lbj. plus they own his b rights and this is his 7th season. hes gonna get paid.
nobody's signing two major fa's next year. Bosh, Wade, and Lebron both want over 20 million so to have 2 of them would mean givign atleast 40 out of 51 million in space away. That leaves 11 mil for 9 players. haha not gonna happen. Lbj stays in cleveland.
With or without LeBron the Knicks are on the rise. They have money to spend in 2010 & 2011.
birdzilla- LeBron may have to wait a year in New York but he is going to have to wait his whole career in Cleveland. What are you talking about? ha
badger...you act like i said they wont be able to get him back. I was reading somewhere where the Cavs used much for there cap space when they added players this year,
you know whats funny..i remeber this same debate about garnett back when he was with minny and duncan back when he was with san antonio. Also the ability to win a title in newyork is no greater then in clevland..ya'll say ( or qhaynes says) the roster in clevland has shown they cant win, well the coach in new york showed he cant when a title win he was with the suns because of his style of play so if people think that way then that evens the who will win a title thing out. also it has been shown that clevland can in fact get there and all they need is another player to help lebron to increase the chance of them winning. you also have to factor in team chemistry. Its alot harder to get used to 13 new players instead of 2 or 3. lookingat all the factors the arrows are pointing toward him staying alot more then him leaving (chemistry,money,hometown).he doesnt need to go to newyork to get bigger or more endoresments, do we forget who we are talking about? He can play in alaska and still make over ridunkulous money. Yes he could decide to go to new york but in reality the chances of that happening are alot lower then him staying.
On Monday, we looked at the star-studded free-agent class of 2010, and there's more good news for fans eager to see some moves next summer: Nearly a third of the league will have enough salary-cap space to make a run at one or more free agents.
Given current projections, nine teams -- the New jersey Nets, New York Knicks, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, Houston Rockets, Chicago Bulls, Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers and Sacramento Kings -- could have significant money under the salary cap to spend in 2009.
Now for the bad news: Teams won't be nearly as far under the cap as they had hoped.
Last summer, NBA GMs were projecting a cap of $62 million to $64 million in the summer of 2010. But when the league reported the cap numbers for next season on June 30, the league memo mentioned that the NBA is now projecting a 5-10 percent decrease in the cap for the summer of 2010.
A 5 percent decrease makes for a $53.6 million cap next year (down $4 million from last season's $57.7 million cap). A 10 percent worst-case scenario? Teams will be playing with a cap below $50 million.
That means teams such as the Knicks that were projecting a $64 million cap will likely have $10 million to $14 million less to work with than they thought they would just 12 months ago.
So how much will each team have to spend? It's an inexact science a year away, but here's what our research came up with. For the purposes of this projection, we're going with a $53.6 million cap.
New jersey Nets
New jersey has one of the best opportunities to land a big-time free agent. The Nets are likely to be somewhere between $25 million and $27 million under the cap, depending on where they draft and the number of cap holds they have on their roster next summer.
New York Knicks
The Knicks aren't too far behind New Jersey. They could have $24 million in cap space next summer, though there are a few caveats for Knicks fans.
First, that number is with only six players under contract and six minimum cap holds. Second, it doesn't factor in David Lee or Nate Robinson. If they sign for more than a one-year deal, the number goes down significantly. GM Donnie Walsh will try hard this summer to trade Jared Jeffries and/or Eddy Curry for an expiring contract to clear more cap space, but in this economic climate, it won't be easy.
The Heat are also poised to have some serious cap room next year. If Dwyane Wade opts out, they technically won't have one guaranteed contract on their books. More realistically, though, they'll pick up options on Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers and keep Wade's cap hold -- putting them at between $20 million and $22 million under the cap next season. (This number comes with an assumption that they waive a few guys, including James Jones.)
Those are the three teams with the big bucks. But a few other teams can get $10 million or more under the cap as well:
The Timberwolves should be between $16 million and $18 million under the cap next season, depending on whether they pick up their option on Ryan Gomes. New GM David Kahn should be poised to spend the money. But the real question is, will any top NBA free agent choose the Wolves over big-market teams like the Knicks, Nets, Bulls and Heat?
The Bulls can get between $13 million and $15 million under the cap if they decide to dump Tyrus Thomas, who will be a restricted free agent. If they extend Thomas or sign him as a free agent (or just keep his cap hold on the books, for that matter), they'll have significantly less.
The other factor for the Bulls will be what John Salmons does. Salmons has an early-termination option in his contract. If he terminates his contract and the Bulls don't re-sign him, they would clear an extra $6 million in cap room and could get as much as $20 million under the cap.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder will also be in good shape.
GM Sam Presti has been spending his money carefully and should have $14 million to $15 million in room next summer.
The Rockets, assuming they don't re-sign Tracy McGrady, can get $12 million to $14 million under if they don't pick up team options on Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes. However, they have a couple of significant restricted free agents -- Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry -- whom they probably want to keep. If they keep both, they'll have much less cap room. All of this assumes that the injured Yao Ming won't terminate his max contract in 2010.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers could get around $10 million or $11 million under next season, and if they could find a way to clear a little more cap room, I actually think they could be a serious free-agent player. With a young nucleus of Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon and Al Thornton, along with a veteran point guard like Baron Davis, they could be pretty attractive to a top-level free agent who wants to play in L.A. If they found a home for Chris Kaman, that would give them another $10 million in room. I know it's the Clippers, folks, but they have a better young team to build around than the Knicks or Nets do.
The Kings should be somewhere between $9 million and $10 million under the cap. But given their financial woes of late, they might not be as willing to spend it as would some other teams.
A few other teams could have big money if one of their top free agents leaves next summer.
The Cavs could be between $19 million and $20 million under the cap if LeBron James left. The Suns could be between $7 million and $8 million under if Amare Stoudemire bolted. And the Raptors could clear between $6 million and $7 million under if Chris Bosh changed uniforms.
new york is no closer to a title ..actually they are alot further from a title then clevland and almost every other team.
Clevaland had an underrated offseason they got a proven champion in Shaq, and two solid players in Moon, and Parker. i think all they have done this offseason is become better and they have more experiance they could sneak in a title ahead of the favorites Laers, Spurs, Magic, and Celtics.
"I was reading somewhere where the Cavs used much for there cap space when they added players this year,"
sorry that whoever you were reading didn't know what he/she was talking about...
Shaq's contract expires this year, and Jamario only ties up ~3 mill next year, Andy Varejao ties up about 7 mill next year... maybe they were referring to this year?
read that chard ford post....
that doesnt mean Lebron will come, if he cares about money he will, but i dont think all he cares about is money.
FOR THE LAST TIME LBJ IS STAYING IN CLEVELAND AND THAT IS THAT!
Thanks for posting that Q, appreciate that.. and see? the Cavs could have 19-20 mill... and THEN sign LBJ... but again, that's based off my assumption that Bird Rights don't expire before July 1... If Bird rights expire BEFORE July 1 (or the time when FAs can sign) than you're right. As far as I can tell though, Bird rights do NOT expire before July 1
we will see...I think NY has a chance at LBJ...we will see.
but when you turn on espnews or go to espn.com and see in bold, underlined letters lebron is staying in cleveland, be the first one to admit that you were wrong.