Do we love the prospects too much?
As fans, I wanna know : Do we fall in love with the HS and college Prospects too much?
I think we do for a couple reasons. I think that the fact that we watch the HS All-Star game and take things from that, mean people are eating it up and we look for the next big prospect is a little too much. I mean, I like John Wall and I think he will be great in college due to having people not knowing his style, but in the NBA it's anyone guess. Perry Jones is rated 1st in 2011 but if a highly ranked prospect in 2010 ( let's say Derrick Favors) stays in college, does he then becomes the best prospect or is Perry Jones still #1?
Greg Monroe & Cole Aldrich are the proven players in next year's draft but yet, he's the projected 12th & 5th players projected in the draft? Why? I mean we can drool over potential but when do we always fall in love with the high potential when more cases then not, it burned us before?
My Opinion, tell me what you think
Because it doesn't actually come back to burn us. Far more often than not, players who draw hype in their junior and senior years of high school actually prove at least somewhat worthy of that hype. We just remember the busts more than successes.
Just look at the list of high school draftees.
but i also think ppl fall in love with prospects because we want 2 see the next big thing. ppl see a player dominate in high school and are quick to tab him as the next lebron james or the next great player. Some ppl are also fascinated with seeing a player progress from high school player 2 star or bust. Such as sebastian telfairs movie. after watching him in that movie i was sure bassy was goin 2 be the next great player and sure enough ppl on tv were tabbing him as the next great point guard. his career has been somewhat of a bust in my opinion. Fact is we want too see someone who can seriously be in the debate with lebron and kobe. or be in a debate about the next jordan
Adi Joesph, how many crazy comparison has this site made? (no offense) but when you compare college players to all-time legends or superstars...I don't know. I rather look and see.
If I'm correct you work for the site so it's your job to estimate these scout's skills. But IMO, I rather look at skills and just say " he has a shot to be great" I dont wanna over-hype or under hype someone. I wanna be a GM/Scout type guy and you gotta make those decisions but as of right now, I rather be a on the fence guy then a "I know he will be" guy..you know what I mean?
I honestly don't put too much attention towards highschool players. In college, I like to watch them for myself and read how I think their game will translate over any hype they have. As for comparisons with past players, Obviously those are usually best case scenarios and just trying to find someone the player reminds them of so fans who might not have seen the prospect can have an idea of what they are capable of.
I 100% agree and Adi Joesph, you work or the site?
Yes he works on the site. Read some of the articles or scouting reports. He writes some of them.
Anyways, most players that are hyped up enough to be considered top talent in high school do well in the NBA. I read an article a few years ago about how rare it is that an NBA team wins a championship without a McDonalds All-American on the roster. Its true.
lol, i'd have to disagree strongly with the, FAR MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, it doesn't come back to burn us... what?! Let's take a look back:
2000 (picks that are more potential than substance):
(this was a very very strong draft)
The simple fact is the more Potential someone has, the more Risk there is that they won't pan out (Risk vs. Reward)... That's not to say that it's a bad idea to try and hit a homerun, but the fact of the matter is, the more potential reward you try and get, the more risk you have to accept... To say that we are enamored by potential because usually it doesn't burn us is just wrong to me...
o and by the way go ahead and add hasheem thabeet to that list
You know, I think one thing that must be factored in is that Aran has gotten a lot better at his job over the years. If you remember the original NBADraft.net (from back in 2000), then you can certainly attest to that.
Many of the mistakes constantly reiterated were in this site's first few years of existence. I think you'd find that in the last 3-4 years, there have been far fewer serious stretches.
Also, what is a proven player? Wouldn't Adam Morrison have been seen as the proven star of the 2006 Draft? Wouldn't Andrea Bargnani have been the high-upside prospect?
The best way to evaluate is to learn to compare players based on three qualifiers:
1. How good are they right now? Can this player step onto a team and make an impact immediately?
2. What's their maximum potential? How good can this player be in the future?
3. What will it take to get this player to his maximum potential? How far away is he?
It's rare, then that you come across a player such as Shaq, who was essentially at the top of his draft class in all three categories.
But too often, teams get caught up in answering just one or two questions. Too often, a team will draft the guy that can help them immediately (Andrew Bogut comes to mind), or the guy that they see potential in who may never reach it in their system (Marvin Williams), or the guy that perfectly fits the system (Deron Williams).
In the process, you might just pass on Chris Paul.
That's why I wrote the Top 10 Ridiculous Comparisons which talks about guys that were not that close to whom they got compared to... And yeah... Over the years, this site has been very keen on comparing the prospects and they had made sure that they get it right. Aran had done a terrific job and this site has grown a lot... They compared players better now than it was back then... In fairness to this site, I also created Top 10 Solid Comparisons too... They made good comparisons, too...
Sometimes, GM's tend to get tempted in drafting a player because of this so-called hype... MJ picks Kwame, Adam? His image as a GM was severely distraught and people criticized him for it... CP3 got overlooked by the Hawks because they were buying the hype in Marvin Williams... But sometimes, hype can make you feel good, LBJ anyone?