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By
Channing McCarthy
NBADraft.net
3/18/08
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Daniel
Hackett
Icon SMI |
Aww yes! Once again it's
the time of year where everyone is strategizing and trying to navigate
the field in order to place competitively in their office pool;
or just simply trying to beat (and subsequently shut up) that annoying
heckler who got the better of them last year. Tell me if this sounds
familiar… You took my advice
from last year’s tournament and had Oregon and Vanderbilt
performing strong. You also had at least 12 of the sweet 16 teams,
5 of the elite 8, and 3 of the final four teams correctly selected;
yet you finished lower than expected. More than likely, the catalyst
behind this was a failure to spot high ranking teams that were prone
to underachieve (an example of this would be Duke’s loss last
year to VCU); and their early exit cost you points for several rounds.
To help combat this potential debacle, this year’s edition
of Bracket Busters is not only going to analyze several Cinderellas
that have the attributes to wreck havoc, but some high seeded underachievers
who possess the flaws that could cost your bracket dearly as well.
Teams to watch:
USC 21-11 (12-8 Pac-10)
Although I think that
any team with 11 losses is a little undeserving of a 6 seed; Southern
California has been playing well as of late. Including their ultra-competitive
loss to UCLA in the Pac-10 tournament, they have won seven out of
their last ten. The success of O.J. Mayo has underscored the balance
and versatility that SC has; as they have four scorers averaging
double figurers. Mayo’s freshmen counterpart Davon Jefferson
is both efficient (56% from the field, 40% from three) and versatile
(in addition to his 6 rebounds a game, he is averaging 1 block and
.8 steals). Because his production has declined from that of his
freshmen campaign (10.8ppg and 7.8rpg compared to 12.2ppg and 8.7rpg),
most insiders forget about Taj Gibson’s dominant performance
against North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough in last year’s
East regional semi-final. With his size (6”9 225) and defense
prowess (2.5 blocks per game), Gibson is a handful for any post
player in the country. Overall if they can survive their opening
round showdown with Michael Beasley and Billy Walker of Kansas State,
the men of Troy have the potential to be a real factor.
Key Stats: 11 and 48%.
USC’s losses to Kansas, @ Memphis, and against UCLA in the
Pac-10 tournament, were by a combined eleven points. USC as a team
shoots 48% from the field.
Notre Dame 24-7 (14-4
Big East)
Yes I know. I had the
Irish performing well in last year’s tournament, and they
ended up floundering in an opening round loss to Winthrop. Last
year’s tournament performance is a big reason why I feel that
Notre Dame will fair much better in this year’s tourney. For
starters, Tory Jackson, Rob Kurz, and most importantly Luke Harangody
all gained valuable tournament experience last season; regardless
of the outcome. Some fans might forget that the 07 tournament was
Notre Dame’s first since 03. Most know about the progression
of sophomore forward Luke Harangody, the 07-08 Big East player of
the year; but perhaps the bigger addition to the Irish this season
has been the return of junior guard Kyle McAlarney (he was suspended
the majority of last year on a marijuana charge). In his return,
McAlarney has been nothing short of spectacular, as he has averaged
more than 15 ppg and is shooting 44% from three. Although a first
round match up with George Mason is going to be no cake walk, if
Notre Dame is able to outlast the Patriots, look out. As the Irish’s
combination of a dominant post game coupled with marksman-like outside
shooting, make them a darkhorse to participate in San Antonio.
Key stat: 40.8%. Notre
Dame’s team average from three, which is 8th best in the nation.
West Virginia 24-10 (11-7
Big East)
While junior forward
Joe Alexander is usually the first player mentioned when one begins
to converse about the Mountaineers, it is an absolute mistake to
discount the rest of West Virginia’s lineup. As Bob Huggins’
squad features four starters who average 11 or more points, and
shoot better than 44% from the field. Although Alexander is unquestionably
both the team’s best and most explosive player; the play of
junior guard Alex Ruoff might be most critical to Mountaineers tournament
success. As Ruoff’s ability to shoot the three (40% on a team-high
225 attempts) spreads the floor and allows such players as Alexander,
Da’Sean Butler, and Darris Nichols (the last remaining player
from the Mountaineers 05 elite eight tourney run) penetrate and
create going toward the basket. Ruoff’s outside shooting is
extremely critical for Alexander, as for all of his noted versatility,
he is a dreadful shooter from three (26% for the season). Overall,
Alexander’s 1st round match up against Arizona’s Chase
Budinger should be one of the most entertaining of the opening weekend.
Looking past an Arizona, West Virginia is a disastrous match up
for 2nd seed Duke in a potential second round clash.
Key stat: 35.6. The number
of rebounds West Virginia averaged per game this season. Up from
30 in 06-07, a clear indication of the toughness that new coach
Bob Huggins has brought to the team.
Others to watch closely:
Siena (22-10), Saint Mary’s (25-6), Western Kentucky (27-6),
Marquette (24-9) and Gonzaga (25-7).
Teams to avoid:
Duke 27-5 (13-3 ACC)
Because Duke is such
a storied program, at times it can become easy to forget the relative
lack of tournament success that coach K’s program has had
lately. In addition to last year’s first round exit suffered
at the hands of VCU, Duke’s two previous tournament’s
ended in the round of 16. First in 05 to Michigan State and second,
to LSU in the 06 tournament; in fact it has been exactly four years
since Duke made a final four appearance. Granted, while any team
that turns opponents over as frequently as the Blue Devils have
(8.7 steals per game) and shoots as efficiently from the field as
they do (46%) can certainly make a tournament run; their lack of
an inside presence (any time a 6”4 guard is your leading rebounder,
you have to be concerned), distributor and a marquee player suggests
Duke could struggle. Besides Arizona, all of Duke’s potential
opponents in the first three rounds (West Virginia, Purdue, Baylor
and Xavier) either have the athletes or play the type of defense
that will make it extremely difficult for their shooter’s
to have open looks. This, in my opinion, will lead to a demise that
will be much earlier than the Durham faithful expect.
Key Stat: 3.3apg. Greg
Paulus’ team leading assist average.
Georgetown 27-5 (15-3
Big East)
Yes Georgetown is perhaps
the best defensive squad in this year’s field, yes the Hoyas
did run relative rough shot over the Big East this season, and yes
they did reach the final four last season. All of this is understood.
But what many Georgetown enthusiast fail to realize is that the
majority of GU’s 07 tournament run can be attributed to the
overall brilliance of the now departed, Jeff Green. When John Thompson
III’s noted Princeton set would break down, Green had the
ability to create either for himself or his teammates (the end of
Georgetown’s classic east regional semi-final with Vanderbilt
is exhibit A). Unfortunately, this year’s Hoyas just don’t
have that type of player. On the horizon for Georgetown are two
teams (either Gonzaga or Davidson) who have players (Jeremy Pargo
and Stephen Curry) who can both push the pace (which is bad for
GU bigs Roy Hibbert and DaJuan Summers), and break down guards Jonathan
Wallace and Jessie Sapp with their penetration. If Georgetown is
able to survive its second round match up, a third round match up
with USC or Wisconsin might prove to be an even bigger challenge.
Key Stat: .665. Georgetown’s
free three percentage.
Others to approach with
caution: Wisconsin (29-4), Washington State (24-8), Connecticut
(24-8), Drake (28-4), and Vanderbilt (26-7)
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