How in the world is an NBA executive supposed to single out James Harden from Chase Budinger from Tyreke Evans from Willie Warren?
That’s the art and the frustration of the draft, of course, and this year, with so many players valued relatively equally, it has never been trickier.
There’s Blake Griffin alone at the top, Ricky Rubio and Brandon Jennings could be coming from Europe into the top of the draft, and then there’s a whole bunch of good but not dominant college players.
That puts even more emphasis on the NCAA postseason, and intense focus on the Sweet 16 games that involve so many of the NBA’s top prospects, jockeying for victories and draft positioning.
As usual, I checked with several trusted NBA executives and scouts. So let’s run through my tentative draft rankings of college players, with a few more tournament rounds to go”…
1. Blake Griffin, 6-10 PF, Oklahoma.
The only sure thing in this draft. Let’s see how he handles the Syracuse zone Friday; but even if it baffles him, he’s No. 1 with a bullet.
NBA comparable: Amare Stoudemire.
2. Jordan Hill, 6-10 PF, Arizona.
He could solidify this spot by knocking around Louisville’s athletes Friday.
NBA comparables: Top end is Al Horford, low end is Ike Diogu.
3. Greg Monroe, 6-10 C/F, Georgetown.
A big question mark based on production, but several scouts said the versatile freshman would fit on a team that lacks talented big men. Which is almost every team.
NBA comparable: A much less polished LaMarcus Aldridge.
4. Hasheem Thabeet, 7-3 C, Connecticut.
He’ll be a defensive force immediately and an offensive contributor”… possibly never.
NBA comparable: Emeka Okafor, plus six inches.
5. James Harden, 6-4 G, Arizona State.
He’s a smart scorer and passer, but his lead-footed performances in the tournament should raise concerns.
NBA comparable: Adam Morrison.
6. Demar DeRozan, 6-6 G, USC.
DeRozan doesn’t have O.J. Mayo’s offensive repertoire, but he has perfect shooting-guard size and athleticism.
NBA comparable: Andre Iguodala, at the top end.
7. James Johnson, 6-8 F, Wake Forest.
A scouts’ favorite—he plays hard, can guard almost anybody and scores in a lot of ways.
NBA comparable: NBAdraft.net says Andres Nocioni, and I like it.
8. Jrue Holiday, 6-3 G, UCLA.
Like Russell Westbrook before him, Holiday is projected as a starting pro point guard, despite backing up Darren Collison in Westwood.
NBA comparable: A poor man’s Deron Williams. Which would make Holiday very rich.
9. Tyreke Evans, 6-6 G, Memphis.
He’s a big play-maker who could be a very nice partner for Monta Ellis. But Evans is erratic and hasn’t proved he can play the point—just like Ellis. The Missouri game today will be a nice test.
NBA comparable: J.R. Smith.
10. Cole Aldrich, 6-10 C, Kansas.
Late-riser. A triple-double in the tournament will do that for you.
NBA comparable: Andris Biedrins, plus a jump shot. (Don Nelson’s eyes just lit up.)
11. Gerald Henderson, 6-4 G/F, Duke.
A shorter Josh Childress.
12. Stephen Curry, 6-3 G, Davidson.
Mike Bibby, plus 10 feet of shooting range.
13. Al-Farouq Aminu, 6-9 F, Wake Forest.
Another Marvin Williams? Is that a good thing?
14. Willie Warren, 6-3 G, Oklahoma.
Eric Gordon, minus the Clipper curse.
15. Earl Clark, 6-9 F, Louisville.
A souped-up Matt Barnes.
16. Sam Young, 6-6 SF, Pittsburgh.
A toned-down Matt Harpring.
17. Ed Davis, 6-9 F, North Carolina.
It’s too easy—Tar Heel lefty, young, raw”… just like Brandan Wright.
18. Jeff Teague, 6-2 PG, Wake Forest.
Forget the comparable. With Johnson, Aminu and Teague, how did the Demon Deacons lose in the first round?
19. Patty Mills, 6-0 PG, St. Mary’s.
Tony Parker, minus Eva Longoria and other star accessories. Such as: A dependable jump shot.
20. Chase Budinger, 6-7 G/F, Arizona.
A Marco Belinelli clone.
Best of the rest: Ohio State C B.J. Mullens, Louisville G/F Terrence Williams, Virginia Commonwealth PG Eric Maynor, Syracuse PG Jonny Flynn, North Carolina F Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina PG Ty Lawson and Pittsburgh F DeJuan Blair.
Check out Tim Kawakami’s Talking Points at blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami. Contact him at tkawakami@mercurynews.com or (408) 920-5442.
