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By
Adi Joseph
NBADraft.net
3/19/08
Jump
in the pool and dance.
Everybody’s
talking brackets right now. And with NBADraft.net’s staff
picks on the board, I figured I’d go and give a rundown of
every pick I make.
Admittedly, I went a
little safe here, but I really don’t see too many early upsets
in this tournament.
So here we go
ROUND ONE
East:
1. North Carolina
over 16. Mount St. Mary’s
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Tyler
Hansbrough
Icon
SMI |
So The Mount
gets to say they won a tournament game because of the play-in game,
but they stand no chance here.
9. Arkansas over 8. Indiana
The Hoosiers have more
talent, but Arkansas has more depth. Factor in that Indiana hasn’t
been the same since Kelvin Sampson was fired and this is the safe
pick. Admittedly, Indiana has more upside and would be much more
likely to beat UNC in my mind.
5. Notre Dame over 12.
George Mason
Something tells me this
is going to be a lot of people’s 5-12 upset pick after the
Irish bounced out of last year’s tournament. But I think Mike
Brey has a very strong team this year, and maybe actually will avoid
underachieving in the tournament.
4. Washington State over
13. Winthrop
The Eagles are weaker
this year than last, and Washington State has tournament experience
now.
11. St. Joseph’s
over 6. Oklahoma
It’s a trendy pick,
I know. But the Sooners are over-seeded and young, and St. Joe’s
has a very strong frontcourt.
3. Louisville over 14.
Boise State
I’ll be honest
– I was tempted to pick the upset. But Rick Pitino knows what
he is doing in March.
7. Butler over 10. South
Alabama
Against Miami or West
Virginia (two other 7-seeds), I would have picked South Alabama.
But I like Butler’s team.
2. Tennessee over 15.
American
The Volunteers are going
to score like crazy on the Eagles.
Midwest:
1. Kansas over 16. Portland
State
No first-ever 16-beats-1
upset likely here.
8. UNLV over 9. Kent
State
This is a tough one.
Kent State has a better team in terms of pure talent, in my opinion.
But UNLV has Lon Kruger and good tournament experience and a better
conference that provided them with more tests. Toss-up when it comes
down to it though.
5. Clemson over 12. Villanova
Interesting match here,
but I think Clemson’s peaking right now while Nova has been
sporadic all season.
4. Vanderbilt over 13.
Siena
I’ve seen some
people pick Siena as a big upset, and personally I’m not crazy
about Vandy either. But I’m going to have to play it safe,
especially considering I’ve admittedly only seen Siena play
once this year.
6. USC over 11. Kansas
State
Mayo vs. Beasley is what
this is being hyped up as, but the truth is that USC has an overall
far superior team.
3. Wisconsin over 14.
Cal-State Fullerton
The world wants to hate
on Wisconsin, and let them. But Fullerton isn’t much of a
threat.
7. Gonzaga over 10. Davidson
Davidson’s the
trendy pick, but why? They haven’t beaten any decent team
they’ve faced all season. The Bulldogs have a far more impressive
résumé and are actually a potential Final Four threat.
I doubt they’ll struggle against Davidson.
2. Georgetown over 15.
UMBC
An upset would be a cool
story.
South:
1. Memphis over 16. Texas-Arlington
At least they made the
tournament, right?
8. Mississippi State
over 9. Oregon
I like Mississippi State.
I don’t like Oregon. The Bulldogs have better ball-handlers
and big men.
5. Michigan State over
12. Temple
Part of me thinks this
could be one of those years where Michigan State goes and makes
the Final Four out of nowhere. Maybe it’s because I’m
Drew Neitzel’s unofficial hype-man.
4. Pittsburgh over 13.
Oral Roberts
Worth noting: Pitt has
lost one game all season where Levance Fields has played 30+ minutes.
He’ll be doing that for the tournament.
6. Marquette over 11.
Kentucky
If the Wildcats still
had Patrick Patterson, they’d be the pick here. But Marquette’s
guards are strong and Kentucky doesn’t have the post presence
to win now.
3. Stanford over 14.
Cornell
For what it’s worth,
Cornell is better than a 14-seed.
10. Saint Mary’s
over 7. Miami
Miami as a 7-seed is
a little outrageous in my mind. Saint Mary’s has the talent
to go far in this tournament, and Miami will be outmatched in this
one, even as the favorite.
2. Texas over 15. Austin
Peay
Maybe some Dickie V headstands?
Probably not.
West
1. UCLA over 16. Mississippi
Valley State
Tune up.
8. BYU over 9. Texas
A&M
A&M’s slipped
from Final Four contender at the beginning of the year to first
round exit. What’s happened to this team?
5. Drake over 12. Western
Kentucky
Courtney Lee is a nice
player for Western Kentucky, but Drake is really legitimate. Don’t
be fooled by the quick turnaround.
4. Connecticut over 13.
San Diego
Something seems fishy
in Storrs, but I don’t think the path ends here.
11. Baylor over 6. Purdue
Admittedly, Baylor has
slumped lately. But I love their guards and Purdue is such a young
team that it’s tough to feel confident with them. In a year
or two, these teams could be Final Four contenders.
3. Xavier over 14. Georgia
Georgia’s not good.
They got hot at the right time. It’s time for that to end.
10. Arizona over 7. West
Virginia
Okay, so Joe
Alexander is great and all. But with Jerryd Bayless and Nick Wise
together, the Wildcats are 16-6 and a much better team than West
Virginia.
2. Duke over 15. Belmont
Belmont’s gained
name recognition from being in the tournament the last two years.
Duke also has name recognition.
ROUND
TWO
East:
1. North Carolina over
9. Arkansas
The Tar Heels are better
at every single position.
4. Washington State over
5. Notre Dame
I really like both of
these teams. Legitimately I view them as two of the top 15 in the
country. So it’s a tough choice. But I am in love with Washington
State’s defense.
3. Louisville over 11.
St. Joseph’s
Easy choice because Louisville
has enough talent to completely overwhelm St. Joe’s.
2. Tennessee over 7.
Butler
Butler could definitely
slow Tennessee down, but even if they do I believe the Vol’s
have enough talent to overcome the pace change.
Midwest:
1. Kansas over 8. UNLV
Kansas is the type of
team that won’t lose early because their defense is so incredibly
strong. I’ll tell you right now – picking the Jayhawks
to lose before the Elite Eight is taking a huge risk.
5. Clemson over 4. Vanderbilt
In contrast to Washington
State and Notre Dame, I don’t like either of these teams very
much. Clemson has been better lately, so they’re the pick.
6. USC over 3. Wisconsin
This is a tough game
because I think Wisconsin is the better team. But USC is so much
more athletic that I’m forced to look at it from a match up
perspective and pick the Trojans. I could see either team winning,
and I think Wisconsin has a better chance of beating Georgetown/Gonzaga
in the Sweet Sixteen than USC.
2. Georgetown over 7.
Gonzaga
I was tempted, but the
Hoyas’ experience led me to pick them over the Bulldogs. This
should be a really great game.
South:
1. Memphis over 8. Mississippi
State
Talent is the issue here:
Memphis has more of it. But this game should be extremely entertaining
albeit probably a little sloppy.
4. Pittsburgh over 5.
Michigan State
Great, great match here.
Very difficult choice at hand. I’m going to say that Pitt’s
got things together more than Michigan State. The Spartans need
to not be so streaky.
3. Stanford over. 6.
Marquette
Brook Lopez is far too
much for Marquette’s weak frontcourt to handle. And quit underrating
Stanford’s guards.
2. Texas over 10. St.
Mary’s
D.J. Augustin will burn
Patty Mills all day long.
West:
1. UCLA over 8. BYU
Let’s face it –
UCLA has the easiest path to the Final Four of anyone. BYU is good
but Trent Plaisted will get placed – outside the tournament.
4. Connecticut over 5.
Drake
Tough one here, because
I think of these two teams as relative equals. Very different styles
too. I decided to go with Connecticut on the strength of Jim Calhoun’s
coaching experience.
3. Xavier over 11. Baylor
Similar to Wisconsin,
people are pretending like Xavier isn’t good. Xavier is REALLY
good and experienced and balanced. They are a potential Final Four
team and should roll into the Sweet Sixteen.
2. Duke over 10. Arizona
I was tempted to pick
the Wildcats, but both teams are streaky and Duke is hotter more
often. And if both teams are hot, I’d take Duke.
ROUND
THREE
East:
4. Washington State over
1. North Carolina
This pick feels ominously
similar to two years ago when I picked 5-seed Washington to beat
1-seed Connecticut in a game that UConn won in overtime. To hell
with it! I’m going with the gut here. Washington State will
defend the Tar Heels until Ty Lawson has been so smothered he can’t
breathe.
2. Tennessee over 3.
Louisville
The Vols are the deepest
team in the country. Louisville is also impressively deep. But I
think Tennessee simply has more playmakers and will get this one.
I know the argument that Pitino is so much more experienced than
Pearl is logical. And I know that Louisville is outstanding defensively.
But I think the orange jacket will prevail.
Midwest:
1. Kansas over 5. Clemson
This is the easiest pick
of the round. Kansas’s defense will devour the Tigers.
2. Georgetown over 6.
USC
Interesting match up
here. USC has Final Four potential, but Georgetown has been there
before. USC will also struggle to match up with Hibbert inside,
and even DaJuan Summers should present an issue with his strength.
South
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Levance
Fields
Icon SMI |
4. Pittsburgh
over 1. Memphis
Pittsburgh commits so
few errors that I think they’ll be able to control the tempo
of the game, which is Memphis’s worst nightmare. Levance Fields’
defense on Derrick Rose will be the difference in this one, which
could really go either way.
3. Stanford over 2. Texas
This is a last-minute
change for me. I had Texas thinking that the Longhorns’ guard
duo was going to be way too much for the Cardinal to overcome. But
over the last 6-7 years, frontcourts have won games, not backcourts.
And in that category, I trust the Lopez twins more than anyone Texas
throws out there to man the paint.
West:
1. UCLA over 4. Connecticut
Powerful meeting here,
with two of the bigger programs in the nation clashing for a spot
in the Elite Eight. But UCLA should be able to overwhelm the Huskies
on both sides of the ball. If Connecticut does win, it will likely
be on the back of Hasheem Thabeet, who UCLA may not have a real
answer for.
3. Xavier over 2. Duke
Xavier defends well and
is a much more consistent, stable team than the Blue Devils. This
one could easily go the other way if Duke’s shooting is completely
on point, but I like what the Muskateers bring to the table, especially
because big man Josh Duncan won’t be pushed around much by
Duke.
ROUND
FOUR
2. Tennessee over 4.
Washington State
This game will be one
of pace. Whichever team gets firmest control of the pace should
be able to win. Washington State has proven that they can score
in bunches, but clearly the are not nearly as effective and would
struggle against a high-octane team like Tennessee if forced to
do so. I think Tennessee will explode out of the gate and force
Washington State to wear down while the Vols utilize full-team substitutions
without missing a beat. This could be interesting, though.
1. Kansas over 2. Georgetown
The best defense will
prevail, and the best defense in the entire country belongs to the
Jayhawks. Kansas brings the type of ball-pressure that could give
even a veteran guard like Jonathan Wallace nightmares. If Georgetown
can avoid turnovers and play their style, they could definitely
pose a threat. But Kansas is also rather underrated offensively
and when their threes are falling they are darn-near unbeatable.
4. Pittsburgh over 3.
Stanford
This match should be
an interesting one. I think it will come down to Pittsburgh making
fewer mistakes and Jamie Dixon finally proving that he is one of
the top coaches in the country. Stanford may have more talent, but
Pittsburgh’s system is better and that should allow them to
prevail.
1. UCLA over 3. Xavier
Two experienced teams
go at it here. But UCLA’s talent-advantage is undeniable and
it’s tough for me to imagine the Bruins not holding a significant
advantage on the boards in this game. It should be interesting to
see Drew Lavender and Stanley Burrell attempt to match the athleticism
of Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook as well.
THE
FINAL FOUR
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Josh
Shipp
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1. Kansas over 2. Tennessee
I struggled with this
one for a while. Offense verses defense. It basically came down
to head-to-head comparisons. And I think the only player on Tennessee
that could cause an issue for Kansas is Tyler Smith, who has a similar
skill-set to former Jayhawk Julian Wright. But I prefer the Kansas
guards and their defense is spectacular even in transition.
1. UCLA over 4. Pittsburgh
The pupil hasn’t
out-grown the teacher just yet. Jamie Dixon is a great coach but
Ben Howland might be the best in the country. Add in that UCLA has
a talent advantage and this seems like a nearly-ideal match for
the Bruins. Freshmen centers Kevin Love and DeJuan Blair battling
each other should be fun to watch. If Memphis outlasts Pittsburgh,
I think they will wind up here and make for a tougher match against
UCLA. But I don’t see that happening.
THE
NCAA MEN’S DIVISION 1 BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
1. UCLA over 1. Kansas
These are the two best
teams in the country, for my money. I believe UCLA has higher-quality
players. But Kansas arguably has more cohesiveness. If Kansas wins,
Darrell Arthur will likely be a huge factor. The athletic big man
could be a very difficult match for the UCLA players, none of whom
can match his quickness inside. But UCLA is the pick. Why? It starts
with Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook. The Bruins’ lead
guards are such solid ball-handlers that they are two of the only
players in the nation who can handle the defensive pressure Russell
Robinson and Mario Chalmers put on opposing point guards. Then there’s
Kevin Love, who will be the most skilled player on the court for
the grand finale.
But I think it’s
worth focusing in on Josh Shipp and Brandon Rush, the teams’
two swingmen. The two players are very similar. But Shipp has a
tendency to step up in the clutch, while Rush has spent his career
disappointing in the biggest moments. This could be the key match
up for the biggest game of the year. And with that, UCLA takes all
the marbles.
That’s
all for today – feel free to steal my picks if you want a
perfect bracket of your own.
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