[WhodunitParticipant]

 Players you think have the highest Bust Potential amongst the 1st rounders. Players that have been talked up and oogled over but you just dont see it in them to be great or even last very long in the league.

 Hopefully we get enough opinions where we can form a solid consensus on here. 

[WhodunitParticipant]

 1.Dante Exum

2.Zach Lavine

3.Nick Stauskas

4. Kyle Anderson

5. Dario Saric (whenever he comes over to the NBA)

[WhodunitParticipant]

 1.Dante Exum

2.Zach Lavine

3.Nick Stauskas

4. Kyle Anderson

5. Dario Saric (whenever he comes over to the NBA)

[NCarmean18Participant]

 You said "don’t see it in them to be great", as well as "or even last in the league".  With those remarks and sticking strictly with first rounders, here are my picks. (No Order)

Dante Exum – He just scares me because there is too little known about him.  He is good against medicore talent, but I fear that he won’t be able to keep up with the size, strength, and quickness of the NBA.  I hope he proves that theory wrong though. 

Zach LaVine – He is an insane athlete, but his fundamentals could use a lot of tuning.  Guys whose potential is based on athleticism scare me.  You still need to know how to properly play the game of basketball. 

Rodney Hood – All he does is shoot the ball.  I can’t see him being much more than a three-point shooting threat.  

Aaron Gordon – He just does not have the body to play power forward, and he doesn’t have the ball-handling/playmaking abilities to be a small forward.  He has a lot of upside and will be a really good alley-oop target, but he could fail to be anything more, and that’s frightening. 

Kyle Anderson – He just doesn’t have the quickness necessary to defend in the NBA.  He isn’t strong enough to guard wings, and he isn’t fast enough to stay in front of the quick guards in the league. 

Honorable Mention: Marcus Smart

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NCarmean18Participant]

 You said "don’t see it in them to be great", as well as "or even last in the league".  With those remarks and sticking strictly with first rounders, here are my picks. (No Order)

Dante Exum – He just scares me because there is too little known about him.  He is good against medicore talent, but I fear that he won’t be able to keep up with the size, strength, and quickness of the NBA.  I hope he proves that theory wrong though. 

Zach LaVine – He is an insane athlete, but his fundamentals could use a lot of tuning.  Guys whose potential is based on athleticism scare me.  You still need to know how to properly play the game of basketball. 

Rodney Hood – All he does is shoot the ball.  I can’t see him being much more than a three-point shooting threat.  

Aaron Gordon – He just does not have the body to play power forward, and he doesn’t have the ball-handling/playmaking abilities to be a small forward.  He has a lot of upside and will be a really good alley-oop target, but he could fail to be anything more, and that’s frightening. 

Kyle Anderson – He just doesn’t have the quickness necessary to defend in the NBA.  He isn’t strong enough to guard wings, and he isn’t fast enough to stay in front of the quick guards in the league. 

Honorable Mention: Marcus Smart

 

 

 

 

 

 

[eric palmerParticipant]

1.) Joel Embiid–I personally think he is going to be great…if he stays healthy. But big men with back issues are scary. Bigs with foot issues are scary. Bigs with back AND foot issues could be out of the league in five years.

2.) Dante Exum– How much do we really know about him? Yes, he’s an athlete and has good floor vision (we think) but I just don’t know much about him. Plus, taking a year off from competitive basketball scares me a bit. I know he was training the entire time, but I feel that game experience is way more important.

3.) Andrew Wiggins– I’m not saying he will necessarily ‘bust’, but he has the potential to be a letdown. He’s too atheltic and explosive in the open court to not play, but if he doesn’t get more aggressive, improve his jumper, and get more comfortable in the half-court, he could be relegated to being a 3rd/4th option on a good team. Again, not a bust, but not what you want out of a potential number 1 pick.

4.) Rodney Hood– Really good shooter, but seems like he could be the kind of player who doesn’t impose himself on offense ever, sort of just being a guy who floats around the three point line. Also, does he have the strength and quickness to keep up with NBA athletes?

5.) Zach LaVine–Explosive athlete with a nice 3pt jumper, but lacks in the BBIQ area. Seems to me like his realistic ceiling is what Gerald Green is now or what JR Smith was a couple years ago, which is a very nice piece to have. That being said, he could also end up being the Gerald Green who never quite figures it all out.

 

 

 

 

 

[eric palmerParticipant]

1.) Joel Embiid–I personally think he is going to be great…if he stays healthy. But big men with back issues are scary. Bigs with foot issues are scary. Bigs with back AND foot issues could be out of the league in five years.

2.) Dante Exum– How much do we really know about him? Yes, he’s an athlete and has good floor vision (we think) but I just don’t know much about him. Plus, taking a year off from competitive basketball scares me a bit. I know he was training the entire time, but I feel that game experience is way more important.

3.) Andrew Wiggins– I’m not saying he will necessarily ‘bust’, but he has the potential to be a letdown. He’s too atheltic and explosive in the open court to not play, but if he doesn’t get more aggressive, improve his jumper, and get more comfortable in the half-court, he could be relegated to being a 3rd/4th option on a good team. Again, not a bust, but not what you want out of a potential number 1 pick.

4.) Rodney Hood– Really good shooter, but seems like he could be the kind of player who doesn’t impose himself on offense ever, sort of just being a guy who floats around the three point line. Also, does he have the strength and quickness to keep up with NBA athletes?

5.) Zach LaVine–Explosive athlete with a nice 3pt jumper, but lacks in the BBIQ area. Seems to me like his realistic ceiling is what Gerald Green is now or what JR Smith was a couple years ago, which is a very nice piece to have. That being said, he could also end up being the Gerald Green who never quite figures it all out.

 

 

 

 

 

[Robb_CParticipant]

 *I wont give you 5 but ill give you three that really stand out to me.

1. Andrew Wiggins- The  athletecism is there but does he have the basketball IQ to put it all together… time will tell but he does have the risk of being a bust

2.Zach Lavine- Another guy who is a total upside guy, he could find himself doing what Gerald Green did for a few years.. 

3. Marcus Smart- Has all the tools to be a productive Guard, but I can see him becoming out of shape as he gets older.. If he doesnt have the discipline to stay in shape I could see weight gains leading to injuries in his career

[Robb_CParticipant]

 *I wont give you 5 but ill give you three that really stand out to me.

1. Andrew Wiggins- The  athletecism is there but does he have the basketball IQ to put it all together… time will tell but he does have the risk of being a bust

2.Zach Lavine- Another guy who is a total upside guy, he could find himself doing what Gerald Green did for a few years.. 

3. Marcus Smart- Has all the tools to be a productive Guard, but I can see him becoming out of shape as he gets older.. If he doesnt have the discipline to stay in shape I could see weight gains leading to injuries in his career

[qDizzle32Participant]

#1 Kyle Anderson (By far)-The fact that he can handle the ball well for a player standing at 6’9 means nothing once he gets to the NBA. Some are saying he will only play PG at the next level, if that did happen, he’d average more turnovers than assists and guys like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook would swipe the ball out of his hands so easily. Also has no accurate outside range and his nickname "Mr. Slo-Mo" really applies to the way he attacks the basket and how much easier it will be for him to get stopped by NBA defenders. If he were to play down low, he would get pushed around by NBA bigs like the nerd playing with magic cards at reccess. Kyle Anderson is easily my first projection to bust and that’s even coming from a UCLA fan myself. Most of all, he’s a terrible defender as he is both lazy and too slow to guard these quick and explosive NBA guards. 

#2 Zach LaVine- Sure how some jaw dropping athleticism but proved hardly anything at UCLA as far as numbers go. Put up very mediocre statistics and had a few good games but will soon be placed into the tweener category and doesn’t even have a consistent jumpshot in games. Believe he can be okay but my accurate guess for how good he can be is Jerryd Bayless which is not terrible but overrated in similar ways to how Bayless was in 2008. 

#3 Jerami Grant- Another raw prospect projected high over athleticism. Not really good at anything other than the fact that he is very athletic and if he were to stay longer, he would be similar to McAdoo who had high projections based on potential and only dropped more each year as his still failed to reach expectations after getting more playing time. Also don’t see Grant as either a SF or a PF in the NBA, once again…. TWEENER

#4 Clint Capela- His freakishly long measurements don’t always make him a guaranteed prospect. Looks incredibly raw from everything I have seen and not judging him off of  one performance but scored one field goal as an almost 20 year old in the Nike Hoop Summit in a game playing against high school kids mostly two years younger than him. Not sold on his inside game and the only things that make him good are his natural habitats which would be his length and his athleticism.

#5 Nik Stauskas- The fact that he is ranked higher than James Young in almost every mock draft I see really makes me shake my head. He has good length but won’t be able to attack the basket in the same way he did in college and wanted to leave him off cuz I can still see him being pretty decent at the NBA level but he is definitely not worthy of a Top 10 pick in a class projected to be this good. Stauskas sounds like the perfect role player to come off the bench and shoot 3’s but very overrated from what I see. 

[qDizzle32Participant]

#1 Kyle Anderson (By far)-The fact that he can handle the ball well for a player standing at 6’9 means nothing once he gets to the NBA. Some are saying he will only play PG at the next level, if that did happen, he’d average more turnovers than assists and guys like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook would swipe the ball out of his hands so easily. Also has no accurate outside range and his nickname "Mr. Slo-Mo" really applies to the way he attacks the basket and how much easier it will be for him to get stopped by NBA defenders. If he were to play down low, he would get pushed around by NBA bigs like the nerd playing with magic cards at reccess. Kyle Anderson is easily my first projection to bust and that’s even coming from a UCLA fan myself. Most of all, he’s a terrible defender as he is both lazy and too slow to guard these quick and explosive NBA guards. 

#2 Zach LaVine- Sure how some jaw dropping athleticism but proved hardly anything at UCLA as far as numbers go. Put up very mediocre statistics and had a few good games but will soon be placed into the tweener category and doesn’t even have a consistent jumpshot in games. Believe he can be okay but my accurate guess for how good he can be is Jerryd Bayless which is not terrible but overrated in similar ways to how Bayless was in 2008. 

#3 Jerami Grant- Another raw prospect projected high over athleticism. Not really good at anything other than the fact that he is very athletic and if he were to stay longer, he would be similar to McAdoo who had high projections based on potential and only dropped more each year as his still failed to reach expectations after getting more playing time. Also don’t see Grant as either a SF or a PF in the NBA, once again…. TWEENER

#4 Clint Capela- His freakishly long measurements don’t always make him a guaranteed prospect. Looks incredibly raw from everything I have seen and not judging him off of  one performance but scored one field goal as an almost 20 year old in the Nike Hoop Summit in a game playing against high school kids mostly two years younger than him. Not sold on his inside game and the only things that make him good are his natural habitats which would be his length and his athleticism.

#5 Nik Stauskas- The fact that he is ranked higher than James Young in almost every mock draft I see really makes me shake my head. He has good length but won’t be able to attack the basket in the same way he did in college and wanted to leave him off cuz I can still see him being pretty decent at the NBA level but he is definitely not worthy of a Top 10 pick in a class projected to be this good. Stauskas sounds like the perfect role player to come off the bench and shoot 3’s but very overrated from what I see. 

[qDizzle32Participant]

Dante Exum is obviously in a unique situation. I’m guessing the level of competiton he played at in Austrailia was similar to playing in a public high school league in the subarbs of a smaller big city such as Memphis or Sacramento. But within these past couple of years, he has played in enough games against many of the best young European players his same age with all of the FIBA tournaments he has played in, to enough games to match a full college season. Also has played against Jahlil Okafor and junior USA squads about 5 times in his career. If Exum hadn’t had such a great performance in the 2013 Nike Hoop Summit against Parker, Randle and Gordon, his stock would not be where it is right now.  

[qDizzle32Participant]

Dante Exum is obviously in a unique situation. I’m guessing the level of competiton he played at in Austrailia was similar to playing in a public high school league in the subarbs of a smaller big city such as Memphis or Sacramento. But within these past couple of years, he has played in enough games against many of the best young European players his same age with all of the FIBA tournaments he has played in, to enough games to match a full college season. Also has played against Jahlil Okafor and junior USA squads about 5 times in his career. If Exum hadn’t had such a great performance in the 2013 Nike Hoop Summit against Parker, Randle and Gordon, his stock would not be where it is right now.  

[GrandmamaParticipant]

1. Marcus Smart:  Lacks a true position, poor decision maker, poor assist/turnover ratio, poor shooter, obvious maturity issues.

 

2. Aaron Gordon:  Not very skilled, somewhat of a tweener, no touch around the rim, limited handles, can’t shoot.

 

3. Rodney Hood:  Physically weak, below average length, left hand dominant, floats on the perimeter and rarely takes the ball to the rim, small hands.

 

4. Zach Lavine:  Raw, not all that skilled, physically weak and doesn’t handle contact well, low bball IQ, more athlete than ball player.

 

5. Glenn Robinson III:  Regressed from freshman to sophomore year, limited skills, jump shooter who can’t shoot, not a good ball-handler.

 

[GrandmamaParticipant]

1. Marcus Smart:  Lacks a true position, poor decision maker, poor assist/turnover ratio, poor shooter, obvious maturity issues.

 

2. Aaron Gordon:  Not very skilled, somewhat of a tweener, no touch around the rim, limited handles, can’t shoot.

 

3. Rodney Hood:  Physically weak, below average length, left hand dominant, floats on the perimeter and rarely takes the ball to the rim, small hands.

 

4. Zach Lavine:  Raw, not all that skilled, physically weak and doesn’t handle contact well, low bball IQ, more athlete than ball player.

 

5. Glenn Robinson III:  Regressed from freshman to sophomore year, limited skills, jump shooter who can’t shoot, not a good ball-handler.

 

[SmooveKRYPTParticipant]

Noah Vonleh (wouldn’t surprise me if he turned out to be Ekpe Udoh with a jumper…we see how drafting him #6 turned out)

Nik Stauskas (I think he’ll be a good player, but he shouldn’t be the first SG off the board like he’s projected to be. I strongly believe Harris & Young will have better careers)

Embiid (strictly health related)

LaVine (I love his tools and upside personally, but the question marks about how he’ll put it all together are legit)

Nurkic (depending on how high he goes)

 

 

 

[SmooveKRYPTParticipant]

Noah Vonleh (wouldn’t surprise me if he turned out to be Ekpe Udoh with a jumper…we see how drafting him #6 turned out)

Nik Stauskas (I think he’ll be a good player, but he shouldn’t be the first SG off the board like he’s projected to be. I strongly believe Harris & Young will have better careers)

Embiid (strictly health related)

LaVine (I love his tools and upside personally, but the question marks about how he’ll put it all together are legit)

Nurkic (depending on how high he goes)

 

 

 

[qDizzle32Participant]

If somebody asked this exact question in 2012, one of the most or if not the most mentioned name on this thread would be Andre Drummond. So we will just never know until they step a foot on that court. 

[WhodunitParticipant]

 He looked sluggish. Didnt look like he cared. Didnt dominate in college. All those things had us thinking Bust. Was Detroit ever glad we were all wrong.

On another note- Guys I wasnt sold on in 2012 and are close to being busts are: Thomas Robinson, Myers Leonard, Jeremy Lamb(maybe) and Fab Melo. I was VERY bullish on MKGilchrist and dont know if we can form an opinion on him just yet.  Was also bullish on Draymond Green, Jeff Taylor, Terrence Jones, John Jenkins, Jared Sullinger, Tony Wroten, Kyle O’Quinn, and Mo Harkless.

Its fun to think about how u pegged guys 2 or more years ago and how they’ve matured or not since. I think i’d be a pretty average scout, along with the rest of you. But theres so much more that goes into success than "is he a good player?"

[WhodunitParticipant]

 He looked sluggish. Didnt look like he cared. Didnt dominate in college. All those things had us thinking Bust. Was Detroit ever glad we were all wrong.

On another note- Guys I wasnt sold on in 2012 and are close to being busts are: Thomas Robinson, Myers Leonard, Jeremy Lamb(maybe) and Fab Melo. I was VERY bullish on MKGilchrist and dont know if we can form an opinion on him just yet.  Was also bullish on Draymond Green, Jeff Taylor, Terrence Jones, John Jenkins, Jared Sullinger, Tony Wroten, Kyle O’Quinn, and Mo Harkless.

Its fun to think about how u pegged guys 2 or more years ago and how they’ve matured or not since. I think i’d be a pretty average scout, along with the rest of you. But theres so much more that goes into success than "is he a good player?"

[qDizzle32Participant]

If somebody asked this exact question in 2012, one of the most or if not the most mentioned name on this thread would be Andre Drummond. So we will just never know until they step a foot on that court. 

[BallinmvpParticipant]

 1.Lavine

2.Exum

3.wiggins

4. Embiid

5. Kyle Anderson

[BallinmvpParticipant]

 1.Lavine

2.Exum

3.wiggins

4. Embiid

5. Kyle Anderson

[WhodunitParticipant]

Lavine +++++++

Exum +++

K.Anderson +++

Embiid ++

Hood ++

Wiggins ++

Stauskas ++

Smart ++

Gordon +

G.Robinson

J.Grant

C.Capela

D.Saric

Vonleh

Nurkic

[WhodunitParticipant]

Lavine +++++++

Exum +++

K.Anderson +++

Embiid ++

Hood ++

Wiggins ++

Stauskas ++

Smart ++

Gordon +

G.Robinson

J.Grant

C.Capela

D.Saric

Vonleh

Nurkic

[Author]

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