[JoeWolf1]

It’s that time again. Here’s my breakdown of how I believe the latest crop of rookies will produce this season. As always feel free to agree, hate on, or discuss any of my predictions.

1. Andrew Wiggins – 28.5 mpg – 13.1 ppg 4.3 rpg 1.2 apg 1.6 spg .9 bpg – 41/37/78

2. Jabari Parker – 33.5 mpg – 17.1 ppg 6.5 rpg 1.0 apg .6 spg .8 bpg – 44/35/74

3. Joel Embiid – I think he’ll sit the whole year

4. Aaron Gordon – 17 mpg – 6 ppg 4.5 rpg 1 apg 1.1 spg .6 bpg – 45/26/53

5. Dante Exum – 21.3 mpg – 7.3 ppg 2.1 rpg 2.9 apg 1.1 spg .4 bpg – 38/35/68

6. Marcus Smart – (w/o Rondo) – 32.2 mpg – 12.6 ppg 4.5 rpg 4.2 apg 1.8 spg .5 bpg – 39/35/74

                             ( w Rondo ) – 24. mpg – 8.8 ppg 3.6 rpg 2.9 apg 1.3 spg .3 bpg – 39/35/74

7. Julius Randle – 18.9 ppg – 6.9 ppg 4.9 rpg .7 apg .6 spg .3 bpg – 46/10/67

8. Nik Stauskas – 20 mpg – 7.4 ppg 1.7 rpg 1.5 apg .5 spg .1 bpg – 40/37/81

9. Noah Vonleh – 13.5 mpg – 3.3 rpg 3.5 rpg .3 apg .25 spg .6 bpg – 43/33/68

10. Elfrid Payton – 33.5 mpg – 14.1 ppg 3.8 rpg 7.2 apg 1.3 spg .4 bpg – 44/27/66

11. Doug McDermott – 27.5 mpg 15.7 ppg 4 rpg 1.9 apg .3 spg .2 bpg – 46/41/85

12.  Dario Saric – overseas

13. Zach LaVine – 22.3 mpg – 9.4 ppg 2.1 rpg 1.9 apg .7 spg .3 bpg – 40/36/70

14. T.J. Warren – 15.2 mpg – 5.9 ppg 1.2 rpg .3 apg .3 spg .2 bpg – 45/28/65

15. Adreian Payne – 10.2 mpg – 3.7 ppg 2 rpg .3 apg .15 spg .25 bpg – 46/33/71

16. Jusuf Nurkic – 11.8 mpg – 3.6 ppg 2.5 rpg .1 apg .2 spg .5 bpg – 50/0/66

17. James Young – 12.5 mpg – 4.7 ppg 1.6 rpg .9 apg .4 spg .1 bpg – 39/37/70

18. Tyler Ennis – 9.1 mpg – 2.9 ppg 1 rpg 1.5 apg .3 spg 0 bpg – 37/35/75

19. Gary Harris – 16.1 mpg – 6.2 ppg 1.8 rpg 1.6 apg .6 spg .1 bpg – 39/38/76

20. Bruno Caboclo – 8.6 mpg – 2.5 ppg 1.3 rpg .1 apg .4 spg .2 bpg – 38/31/70

21. Mitch McGary – 17.5 mpg – 5.1 ppg 4.9 rpg .9 apg .4 spg .4 bpg – 51/0/59

22. Jordan Adams – 20 mpg – 8.1 ppg 2 rpg 1.5 apg 1.1 spg .2 bpg – 42/34/82

23. Rodney Hood – 18.1 mpg – 6.8 ppg 1.7 rpg .8 apg .5 spg .2 bpg – 40/38/80

24. Shabazz Napier – 9.8 mpg – 3.2 ppg .9 rpg 1 apg .5 spg 0 bpg – 36/35/79

25. Clint Capela – 11.1 mpg – 2.4 ppg 2.6 rpg .1 apg .3 spg 1.05 bpg – 48/0/45

26. P.J. Hairston – 10.5 mpg – 4.1 ppg 1.2 rpg .5 apg .6 spg .1 bpg – 42/37/83

27. Bogdan Bogdanovic – overseas

28. C.J. Wilcox – 7.5 mpg – 2.3 ppg 1.1 rpg .3 apg .2 spg 0 bpg – 37/33/77

29. Josh Huestis – 9.5 mpg – 1.8 ppg 1.3 rpg .1 apg .4 spg .15 bpg – 42/30/64

30. Kyle Anderson – 9.1 mpg – 2.5 ppg 1.3 rpg 1 apg .1 spg .1 bpg – 42/37/70

2013 Picks

6. Nerlens Noel – 24.5 mpg – 7.3 ppg 6.9 rpg 1.2 apg 1.1 spg 1.6 bpg – 49/0/70

16. Bebe Nogueira – 12.5 mpg – 2.8 ppg 2.5 rpg .2 apg .3 spg 1.1 bpg – 50/0/59

50. James Ennis – 9.5 mpg – 4.1 ppg 1.5 rpg .8 apg .4 spg .2 bpg – 40/33/72

2011 Picks 

23. Nikola Mirotic – 18.5 mpg – 9 ppg 3.6 rpg .7 apg .5 spg .3 bpg – 48/35/81

31. Bojan Bogdanovic – 21.5 mpg – 10.1 ppg 1.9 rpg 1.5 apg .4 spg .1 bpg – 47/34/81

All – Rookie 1st Team

G – Elfrid Payton

G – Marcus Smart

F – Andrew Wiggins

F – Jabari Parker

F – Doug McDermott

All – Rookie 2nd Team

G – Bojan Bogdanovic

G – Zach LaVine

F – K. J. McDaniels – 28.5 mpg – 10.4 ppg 4.4 rpg 1.2 rpg 1.2 spg 1 bpg – 41/33/76

F – Nikola Mirotic

C – Nerlens Noel

 

 

 

 

 

[redsoxfreak724Participant]

 I think as a whole your 3 PT percentages are a little high, but really well done. Would love to see McDermott put up those kinds of numbers 

[redsoxfreak724Participant]

 I think as a whole your 3 PT percentages are a little high, but really well done. Would love to see McDermott put up those kinds of numbers 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 Those are pretty low averages across the board.

I agree with most of them though.

The stats don’t scream "best class since 2003" to me.

 

 

 

 

[JoeWolf1]

 A lot of the guys weren’t ready to make an imapact as rookies, or maybe their team situation might leave them with a smaller role.

Still rookie production is the end all be all

Speaking of 96′, these rookie stats don’t exactly jump off the page.

Steve Nash – 3.3 ppg 2.1 apg

Kobe Bryant – 7.9 ppg 1.6 rpg 

Peja – 8.4 ppg 3.3 rpg

Jermaine O’Neal – 4.1 ppg 2.8 rpg

 

[JoeWolf1]

 A lot of the guys weren’t ready to make an imapact as rookies, or maybe their team situation might leave them with a smaller role.

Still rookie production is the end all be all

Speaking of 96′, these rookie stats don’t exactly jump off the page.

Steve Nash – 3.3 ppg 2.1 apg

Kobe Bryant – 7.9 ppg 1.6 rpg 

Peja – 8.4 ppg 3.3 rpg

Jermaine O’Neal – 4.1 ppg 2.8 rpg

 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 Those are pretty low averages across the board.

I agree with most of them though.

The stats don’t scream "best class since 2003" to me.

 

 

 

 

[RUDEBOY_Participant]

u seem to be pretty high on payton,14 ppg?

 

 

 

[JoeWolf1]

 Yeah, from what I’ve read, he’s going to be their starter. He doesn’t have the best jumper, but he can excel in transition, and get to the rim.

10 ppg is about as low as it goes for a starting point guard these days. Mario Chalmers (9.8) Ricky Rubio (9.5) Patrick Beverly (10.2) Jose Calderon ( 11.4) are a few of the lower scoring starting PG’s I looked at, and all of them have dynamic wings or big men.

Although, I don’t think Payton is necessarily a better scorer than any of those guys outside of Rubio, I think with Tobias Harris, Oladipo, and Vucevic being his team’s main offensive options, they’ll be a little more room for him to boast a slightly higher scoring average. They’re a promising young bunch, but they’re not the caliber of guys to share shots with as Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Love, Harden, DH, Dirk, or Ellis.

[JoeWolf1]

 Yeah, from what I’ve read, he’s going to be their starter. He doesn’t have the best jumper, but he can excel in transition, and get to the rim.

10 ppg is about as low as it goes for a starting point guard these days. Mario Chalmers (9.8) Ricky Rubio (9.5) Patrick Beverly (10.2) Jose Calderon ( 11.4) are a few of the lower scoring starting PG’s I looked at, and all of them have dynamic wings or big men.

Although, I don’t think Payton is necessarily a better scorer than any of those guys outside of Rubio, I think with Tobias Harris, Oladipo, and Vucevic being his team’s main offensive options, they’ll be a little more room for him to boast a slightly higher scoring average. They’re a promising young bunch, but they’re not the caliber of guys to share shots with as Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Love, Harden, DH, Dirk, or Ellis.

[RUDEBOY_Participant]

u seem to be pretty high on payton,14 ppg?

 

 

 

[RUDEBOY_Participant]

cant wait to see how mcgary performs in preseason…he could average a double double..but i doubt he’ll get the minutes…

[RUDEBOY_Participant]

cant wait to see how mcgary performs in preseason…he could average a double double..but i doubt he’ll get the minutes…

[providencefriars1Participant]

I think Russ Smith could have a nice rookie year.. He will be used to pressure the ball and could play with any of the other guards because they have the size to guard two’s

[JoeWolf1]

 Yeah, I agree there. I wrote a post about a month ago about my top 5 second rounders. It’s a bit outdated now with Jordan McRae signing overseas, and I have since upped my production estimate on McDaniels, but I my prediction with Russ is still one I stand behind.

http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/wolfs-top-5-second-round-contributors

[JoeWolf1]

 Yeah, I agree there. I wrote a post about a month ago about my top 5 second rounders. It’s a bit outdated now with Jordan McRae signing overseas, and I have since upped my production estimate on McDaniels, but I my prediction with Russ is still one I stand behind.

http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/wolfs-top-5-second-round-contributors

[providencefriars1Participant]

I think Russ Smith could have a nice rookie year.. He will be used to pressure the ball and could play with any of the other guards because they have the size to guard two’s

[Swim34061Participant]

Love your work.  2 quick comments – I can’t imagine Thibs giving that many minutes to a rookie that can’t play any D, regardless of how he performs on the other end.  Conversly, I think Randle gets as many minutes as he can handle.  Otherwise these look good to me.

[JoeWolf1]

 Thanks,  I did go a little crazy with Doug. When I sat down to do research, I didn’t exactly expect me to put him that high, but I guess what it boils down to is that I don’t have a lot of faith Chicago can stay healthy, and I think they could use a guy not afraid to shoot. You’re right, though, easily my least conservative pick, could look really smart or really dumb in a year for that one, lol.

My thing with Randle is that Kobe wants to win, and Boozer gives them a better chance right now. That being said, if Kobe goes down and all of a sudden it’s the Lakers squad with Swaggy P is the #1 option, and Xavier Henry starting at the 2, then I could see Randle getting a ton more minutes and putting up something like 12/7. 

[Swim34061Participant]

I get very few things right…but think this was one of them!

[Swim34061Participant]

I get very few things right…but think this was one of them!

[JoeWolf1]

 Thanks,  I did go a little crazy with Doug. When I sat down to do research, I didn’t exactly expect me to put him that high, but I guess what it boils down to is that I don’t have a lot of faith Chicago can stay healthy, and I think they could use a guy not afraid to shoot. You’re right, though, easily my least conservative pick, could look really smart or really dumb in a year for that one, lol.

My thing with Randle is that Kobe wants to win, and Boozer gives them a better chance right now. That being said, if Kobe goes down and all of a sudden it’s the Lakers squad with Swaggy P is the #1 option, and Xavier Henry starting at the 2, then I could see Randle getting a ton more minutes and putting up something like 12/7. 

[Swim34061Participant]

Love your work.  2 quick comments – I can’t imagine Thibs giving that many minutes to a rookie that can’t play any D, regardless of how he performs on the other end.  Conversly, I think Randle gets as many minutes as he can handle.  Otherwise these look good to me.

[TarHeelRavenParticipant]

 That’s a.good.list.man.  I think the general consensus with Gordon is that he has a long ways to go offensively and those numbers for him look about right with.an absolutely atrocious three point and free throw shooting.percentage. He’ll be good on D and in transition but will struggle mightily in the half court on offense.  If Dougie buckets comes.even close to 15 and 4 on a Chicago team expected to compete for.the east, he should be the rookie of the year easily.  I know the general consensus is jabari, but he’s going to Jack up a ton of shots on a bad team and his.defense.is.awful.  dougie will at least.be playing.for.a.coach that demands defensive effort and I.think he won’t be as bad.on D as.people think.  Doug is a much better shooter than jabari and.Will be way more.efficient.  Will be interesting.to see how.all this plays out.

[TarHeelRavenParticipant]

 That’s a.good.list.man.  I think the general consensus with Gordon is that he has a long ways to go offensively and those numbers for him look about right with.an absolutely atrocious three point and free throw shooting.percentage. He’ll be good on D and in transition but will struggle mightily in the half court on offense.  If Dougie buckets comes.even close to 15 and 4 on a Chicago team expected to compete for.the east, he should be the rookie of the year easily.  I know the general consensus is jabari, but he’s going to Jack up a ton of shots on a bad team and his.defense.is.awful.  dougie will at least.be playing.for.a.coach that demands defensive effort and I.think he won’t be as bad.on D as.people think.  Doug is a much better shooter than jabari and.Will be way more.efficient.  Will be interesting.to see how.all this plays out.

[RUDEBOY_Participant]

 will you adjust your predictions for these guys after seeing how they perform in preseason?

[JoeWolf1]

Maybe, I waited until after the pre-season last year, but honestly I did them early this year because the forum has been so dead, lol.

[JoeWolf1]

Maybe, I waited until after the pre-season last year, but honestly I did them early this year because the forum has been so dead, lol.

[RUDEBOY_Participant]

 will you adjust your predictions for these guys after seeing how they perform in preseason?

[prophetmeirParticipant]

I really like KJ numbers I think he has a shot at first team, I dont know about mcdermet and his numbers and I think randle and gordan would get way more PT

[prophetmeirParticipant]

I really like KJ numbers I think he has a shot at first team, I dont know about mcdermet and his numbers and I think randle and gordan would get way more PT

[BobbyqrsParticipant]

Mcdermotts numbers are way high. I don’t think his scoring will translate that well to the nba this early. Also, the bulls have quite a few veteran scoring options. Marcus Smart numbers right on (Celtics fan)

[Rip255]

I really like McDermott and think that he could easily get 15ppg…

He is a great scorer and will get plenty of minutes. He only needs to split SF minutes with Snell, and I’m giving the edge to McDermott so am looking at him to get 30 mpg. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rip255]

I really like McDermott and think that he could easily get 15ppg…

He is a great scorer and will get plenty of minutes. He only needs to split SF minutes with Snell, and I’m giving the edge to McDermott so am looking at him to get 30 mpg. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BobbyqrsParticipant]

Mcdermotts numbers are way high. I don’t think his scoring will translate that well to the nba this early. Also, the bulls have quite a few veteran scoring options. Marcus Smart numbers right on (Celtics fan)

[nill650Participant]

 I’ve never been much of a stats follower, I analize the way a player affects the game.

However, I would be a fool to not have some interest in these estimates,

.

my prediction is that despite the minutes they will get on there current rosters most rookies will not put up good numbers accross the board. some will have high scoring and others a good rebound total. 

the only 5 players in the draft I can see filling it up if givin minutues across the page are payne,parker,mcgary,randle and pj hairston.

 

 

 

 

[nill650Participant]

 I’ve never been much of a stats follower, I analize the way a player affects the game.

However, I would be a fool to not have some interest in these estimates,

.

my prediction is that despite the minutes they will get on there current rosters most rookies will not put up good numbers accross the board. some will have high scoring and others a good rebound total. 

the only 5 players in the draft I can see filling it up if givin minutues across the page are payne,parker,mcgary,randle and pj hairston.

 

 

 

 

[Pistol Pete. The PelicanParticipant]

 I agree with most of these besides Nerlens Noel and Doug Mcdermott, I don’t think McBucket’s stats will be that good and I also don’t think he will get as much time as you said, and it’s the opposite for Noel, I think he’ll get more time, and put up better stats, but everything else is pretty close, and of course Huestis won’t get any minutes and any stats at all, because he’ll be in the D-League all year, unless they changed that from the agreement they had after the draft. But these are good. 

Rookie of the year.

Parker, Payton, Smart, or Noel?

[Pistol Pete. The PelicanParticipant]

 I agree with most of these besides Nerlens Noel and Doug Mcdermott, I don’t think McBucket’s stats will be that good and I also don’t think he will get as much time as you said, and it’s the opposite for Noel, I think he’ll get more time, and put up better stats, but everything else is pretty close, and of course Huestis won’t get any minutes and any stats at all, because he’ll be in the D-League all year, unless they changed that from the agreement they had after the draft. But these are good. 

Rookie of the year.

Parker, Payton, Smart, or Noel?

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