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Willie Cauley-Stein and the #1 Pick.

Mr. 19134
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Willie Cauley-Stein and the #1 Pick.

I love draft years like this one where the number one pick is completely up for grabs. Like completely. Usually there are a handful of prospects that are designated from the beginning of the year to be in the running. Never is that pool usually as wide as it is now. I should remind people that the number one pick is usually a toss up atleast halfway through the college season. Anthony Davis didn't become the unanimous number one pick last year until his dominant tourney play. But we atleast had the names down to Davis, MKG, Drummond, and T Rob.

This year we have Cody Zeller, Nerlen Noels, Shabazz Muhammed, Alex Len, Anthony Bennett, Ben McLemore, Marcus Smart and Archie Goodwin have at one point been mentioned as the top overall pick. Even Ricky Ledo hasn't gotten love for the first pick and he hasn't even played this year.

I'm gonna add 2 other names to that mix. Willey Cauley-Stein and Isaiah Austin.

Andre Drummond has shown in his rookie year just how much rare size and athleticism can get you even if you're super raw. WCS is both super raw and super rare. He played WR in high school which tells me 3 things about him as an athlete. 1, he has good hands, 2 he has good footwork, and 3 he's not afraid of contact. WCS is raw but has already improved a ton since arriving at Kentucky. He has nearly transformed his body from tooth pick thin to wide and muscular. He plays with a high motor, and has shown the ability to finish with either hand around the rim.

WCS has prototypical center size and is unusually fast and fluid while having springs in his legs. He should become a dominant defensive center in the Tyson Chandler mold, with the potential to become a better scoring threat.

I believe by the end of the year WCS will have improved to the point he will be getting strong consideration for the first overall pick.

Isaiah Austin has always been underrated on this site and his strong freshman season is going largely under the radar. He's a 7'1 small forward with solid athleticism, great coordination, and a vast offensive skill set. He's averaging 15 and 9 which are great numbers for a freshman big. He's also shooting a nice % despite liking to take a lot of jump shots.

I compare Austin favorably to Lamarcus Aldridge because of their builds and skill set. Only I feel that Austin is slightly more athletic and much further along from a skills perspective then Aldridge was as a freshman. He has put on a solid amount of weight and scouts no longer seemed concered about his lack of strength. I think Austin has 20 and 10 potential at the next level and that's enough to warrant consideration for the top pick.


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Isaiah Austin still looks the

Isaiah Austin still looks the same, his frame is not like Aldrige as he doesn't have broad shoulders which would let him add more pounds to his frame. Drafting WCS #1 overall is a huge risk and would get a GM fired as he is a boom or bust prospect.

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WCS or Austin taken #1 would

WCS or Austin taken #1 would cost people jobs.

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Yeah that goes without

Yeah that goes without saying, so could B Mac if he turns out to be more Wes Johnson then Ray Allen which is a very real possibility considering how hit or miss wingmen are.

Bigs atleast provide a body to make an impact. As big a bust as Kwame Brown was he was still getting 7 mil a year contracts up to last year, and is still paid 3 mil despite not being able to even catch a pass underneath.

WCS doesn't have these problems, so you know you're at the very least getting a rare athlete who can beat other bigs down the floor, has soft hands to catch passes, and is going to rebound, block shots, get steals, and hustles, with the potential to actually develop some go to moves on the block which given his footwork I believe he will develop.

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Hahaha, you really don't like

Hahaha, you really don't like Ben McLemore, we get it. No one was talking about him. And arguing that other prospects, like McLemore, carry with them inherent risks doesn't negate or mitigate the risks relating to WCS.

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I wouldn't touch Austin in

I wouldn't touch Austin in the lottery, let alone #1.

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You wouldn't touch Austin in

You wouldn't touch Austin in the lottery?

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Absolutely not.

Absolutely not.

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Cauley-Stein will have a

Cauley-Stein will have a direct comparison with Nerlens Noel as they are on the same roster and if he can get ahead of him, he'll be fairly near the top of the draft. Personally I see WCS as a very likely top 10 guy at the moment.

As regards Austin, there have been issues about his lack of bulk but if he is going to play more a stretch PF role with an SF skillset then I don't see this being an issue. The guy has apparently got an insane wingspan which will be great as a perimeter defender and he will be a size mismatch for a lot of NBA PF's let alone SF's. Imagine him alongside a big C then they are nightmare match ups on both defence and offence.

I'd see Austin as a possible top 10 guy at the moment but as I always say it only needs one front office to like him and he has the potential to give some great measurements at draft camp so one nice work out could rocket him up the draft.

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This is the only site that

This is the only site that really has Austin outside of the top 10 and I never understood. Austin doesn't have Anthony Davis shoulders, but he got a bigger build then a guy like John Henson who has been playing extremely well for the Bucks lately.

So I ask if a guy like John Henson who is still tooth pick skinny can find success in the NBA why can't Austin? I don't think weight will be a problem, he's already added a good amount of weight and is only 18 years old. Once his body matures his weight issues will be an after thought. And he's built very similar to Aldridge who never had a lot of weight and was always on the skinny side himself. You can never underestimate how much length and skill means.

And it goes without saying that the number one pick no matter who it is could cost a guy they're job because nobody looks like a surefire pick just yet. Ben McLemor could just as easily cost somebody they're job as SG is the easiest position in the NBA to flame out on and just not pan out. McLemors lack of aggression has been questioned even by Bill Self, and if he never get's that aggressive mentality and never becomes comfortable shooting off the dribble consistently he will start to look like a reach. And combine that with the fact that once a SG's confidence goes, and if he get's down on himself and his shot stops falling it could ruin a career.

When you draft a big man you don't have to worry about they're shot falling. A guy like WCS is always going to be one of the taller and longer people on the floor and all he has to do is hustle hard, which he does, to make an impact.

And I'm not talking about WCS right now, I'm predicting that he's going to improve still a great deal before the end of the season to the point that he's looking like an easy double double machine, he can block shots, run the floor, and throw down highlight reel dunks.

WCS is apparently a hard worker whose very receptive to coaching. He has all the tools, he has great hands and footwork he just needs to learn the game better. But unlike a guy like McGee he's not a knuckle head he's just raw.

With Drummond and Henson having very good rookie years I expect GM's to start siding with size again. Big men use to get the benefit of the doubt before the likes of Kwame Brown came along. But now with no surefire wings, it makes sense that GM's will look closer at the bigs who have that rare size and hustle to make an impact.

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Not only does Austin have a

Not only does Austin have a weak build, but he's soft and he lacks the agility to make up for his lack of strength.
Henson was skinny but he always had the agility to make up for his lack of bulk. He moves very well for a thin PF since he was basically a G who grew into F. Agility helps when trying to maneuver around bigger bodies and when sliding over as a help defender. Austin doesn't have that.
I wouldn't take him in the lottery either.

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Noels has a weak build,

Noels has a weak build, Austin has considerable more weight then Noels has right now, and has gotten the better of Noels nearly every time they played. I also think you're underestimating Austin's quickness, he moves very fluidly and is a better defender, rebounder, and shot blocker then given credit for. I will agree that he is soft tho, but so was Aldridge.

I find it astonishing that in a weak class a 7'1 freshman whose averaging 15 ppg, and 8.5 rebounds in a strong conference who was a consensus top 5 recruit isn't even getting lotto love. Austin's offensive repertoire and size alone should merit lotto consideration nevermind his age and production.

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I'm not sure how you can say

I'm not sure how you can say that Austin has considerable more weight than Noel. Noel weighs more than Austin and Austin supposedly has 2 inches on Noel.

Austin outplaying Noel in their matchup earlier this yr is debatable. Noel didn't shoot well, which is to be expected since he sucks offensively, but he also got 16 boards 6 stls and a blk. While Austin had 11/5 on 5 for 11 from the floor.

Yeah, I don't see the quickness in Austin at all. At times he looks like he's moving in slow motion. Because of that and his lack of physicality, I see him being an absolute turnstile defensively at the next level.

Some of that skill is translatable, but in what capacity? As a soft, stretch big with minimal defensive impact?

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I highly doubt Noels weighs

I highly doubt Noels weighs more then Austin right now. I too had this image of Austin as a gangly soft finesse big, but then I saw him play for Baylor. Austin looks jacked in comparison to last year and even his shoulders are thicker. And Austin has always been a solid rebounder and good shot blocker. And hes much more nimble then the average 7 footer I really dont think hes gonna be a defensive liability at all. At the worse he could project to be a longer athletic Spencer Hawes who can block shots.

You shouldnt underestimate how much length means on defense and Austin got gobs of it. And on offense Austin can come right in and finish lobs and hit elbow jumpers. What I really like about Austin is he can shoot with range and put it on the floor which is a dangerous combo for a big.

Ultimatly Austin will need to land with the right coach wholl ensure he dont fall in love with shootin jumpers.

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I don't. Noel looks

I don't. Noel looks physically stronger and just bigger all over ( not to mention Noel is listed as heavier at their respective official team sites). Austin shows more definition in his upper body compared to last yr. That's about it. Otherwise he's still the same gangly, soft, finesse big.

A more defined upper body doesn't matter if the player lacks lower body strength. Not only does Austin have pencil legs, but he has an unusually high center of gravity (which also contributes to his lack of agility...think of playing on stilts), which puts him at even more of a disadvantage strength wise, since it's easier to get leverage on him. It's pretty funny watching him trying to establish position because he can be rooted out to near the 3 pt line.

He definitely has length though so he'll be able to play off of whoever he's guarding, but I still have reservations about his ability to react and recover because of his agility. What has that length translated to defensively so far for Baylor? He just recently broke the 1 blk a game threshold. You'd figure that a player with his length and shotblocking ability would be playing the middle of the zone to take advantage of that, but he's not. He's playing the back wing of the 2-3. Fluid does not = agile. Austin lacks quick feet. You take his lack of lateral quickness with his lack of body strength and you get a defensive liability at the next level.

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(which also contributes to

" (which also contributes to his lack of agility...think of playing on stilts)"
Lol, that funny.
.
I don't think his lateral quickness is a problem at the 4, much less the 5.
His main problem is bulk... and explosiveness.

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I highly doubt Noels weighs

I highly doubt Noels weighs more then Austin right now. I too had this image of Austin as a gangly soft finesse big, but then I saw him play for Baylor. Austin looks jacked in comparison to last year and even his shoulders are thicker. And Austin has always been a solid rebounder and good shot blocker. And hes much more nimble then the average 7 footer I really dont think hes gonna be a defensive liability at all. At the worse he could project to be a longer athletic Spencer Hawes who can block shots.

You shouldnt underestimate how much length means on defense and Austin got gobs of it. And on offense Austin can come right in and finish lobs and hit elbow jumpers. What I really like about Austin is he can shoot with range and put it on the floor which is a dangerous combo for a big.

Ultimatly Austin will need to land with the right coach wholl ensure he dont fall in love with shootin jumpers.

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Not seeing it for either.

Not seeing it for either. Cauley doesn't have a translatable offensive skill..Austin does but has a bony frame.

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I'm going on the basis that

I'm going on the basis that Noels has both a bony frame, and he doesn't have a translatable offensive skill either yet is getting consideration for the first pick...so....I don't think it's that far fetched to consider WCS and Austin.

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Noel is a game changer on the

Noel is a game changer on the defensive end. Neither WCS or Isaiah Austin are that. I also think Nerlens is a better athlete than both of them although WCS is a good athlete.

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I was on board with your post

I was on board with your post until you brought Austin into the mix. I agree with Siggy. Not touching Austin in lotto, although some team probably takes him lotto on percevied upside. He's like a 7'1 SG similar to Jonathan Bender (much skinnier) which is alluring, but not effective. I don't think he has the body to ever hold position inside and as quick as he is now, certain players just can't carry weight and retain their athleticism, and he appears to fit that category. His hunched shoulders and thin hips don't help his cause. As skilled as his shooting is and as good as he's been at Baylor, I question his heart and toughness (based on his prep career). He's long but really not very explosive or athletic. Is Austin a guy with a work ethic that you know you can count on? Baylor doesn't exactly have a track record that's going to put NBA teams at ease. IMO he's a player that will end up similar to a Channing Frye or Brian Cook. Slow/unathletic long jumpshooters. Not exactly first overall pick kind of players. But some scouts feel his body can improve a lot and obviously like him a lot more.

WCS I'm a huge fan of. He is probably too raw to go #1, but if he keeps getting better who knows. I would take him over Len. Top 5 and over Noel are both definitely possible.

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When analyzing a prospect

When analyzing a prospect like Austin, think about Mason Plumlee and his 4 years at Duke.
How good would Austin be if he stayed at Baylor for 4 years?? def, a lotto talent.
Im a little sketched about about taking Plumlee over Austin.

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Bender is alluring but Bargs

Bender is alluring but Bargs is scary.

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After all of the Workouts are

After all of the Workouts are done when teams get a chance to see guys true height,measurements and their strengths & weaknesses..I think a guy like Cauley Stein could possibly move into the Top 3.....If a player like Thabeet can go number 2,WCS has a much better motor and offensive potential then Thabeet....But i dont think he'll be number 1...Shabazz & McLemore are the 2 most talented players in the draft........Where everyone else falls will depend on the teams drafting....

Glennn Robinson & Dario Saric are 2 others that could move up into the Top 10....

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#1?

Man, there has been some outlandish s*** being said on here recently. I don't know if people are trollin or really believe the things that come out of their brains into the keyboard but someone has to put a stop to this.

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guys what are you smoking

guys what are you smoking even you mr.Aran.. not touching Austin in the lottery? yeah his bust potential is big but his ceiling(with is twice higher than of lottery listed guys) let alone makes him lottery pick, and he actually produces ALREADY

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Im gona lol when Austin turns

Im gona lol when Austin turns into a complete bust and this guy was trying to say he was a number one pick xD There is a difference between putting up numbers in college and that translating into the NBA. Right now he can get his stats because he is physically bigger then 90% of the competition, but once he jumps to pro he loses all his inside-outside versatility because he is gangly thin and wont be able to post. He will be turned into a Troy Murphy/Channing Frye big, wont ever live up to his hype.

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What about Kelly "The

What about Kelly "The Canadian Pony" Olynyk?

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I find it hilarious in a

I find it hilarious in a board about WCS being the #1 overall pick, we are talking about how overrated and horrible Isiah Austin will be in the NBA. WCS comes off the bench for an unranked team. He is good, he provides energy, length, size, all of those things. But he isn't nearly as skilled as Austin or some other bigs in this draft. I know Austin is perceived as a "guard type", but still, its not like WCS's frame would prove that he is a sure fire center at the next level. So many questionable guys in this lottery, I feel like some are just reaching trying to come up with a top pick (Bismack Biyombo, anyone?). I could bet the top 5-6 will end up looking something like Bennett, Muhammad, Noel, McLemore, Len, and Zeller, in some order. Maybe the Cuse kid if someone really needs a PG. WCS? C'mon.

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@Swag you brought up some

@Swag you brought up some great points about how people are much more accepting to a super raw big man like WCS being a top pick, however a super polished 7'1 big man with crazy length, skills, and footwork is outrageous to consider to be a top pick. I do believe both of these guys should stay in school another year, but they won't and there potential is enormous considering they're size and age.

With that said, I felt the need to bump considering that WCS is starting in the wake of the Noels injury, and is putting up very solid numbers a freshman big. I'm gonna get slaughtered for this comparison, but after watching WCS start the last few games, he reminds me of Andre Drummond. He's so big, athletic, strong, and agile, even in the NBA he's going to be a tough matchup. He's a super rare physical specimen as guys with his height, athleticism, motor and energy don't come around often. He's also got great hands and I believe he's going to continue to round that learning curve at breakneck speeds as the season continues and solidify himself a spot atop the draft boards.

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I know the same people

I know the same people negging me are the same people who thought it was a good idea to draft the super polished Brad Beal over Andre Drummond. They're the same people who were completely on board with drafting a guy like Evan Turner over Cousins and Monroe. They wanna point out how Thabeet was drafted ahead of Harden as the reason. They wanna completely overlook how much of a difference height can make.

They would of never put aside perspective and even considered drafting a guy like Nik Vucevic over Derrick Williams.

The point I'm tryna make is that height and skill still matter in the NBA and Austin and WCS are 2 of the more skilled 7 footers to come along considering their age and the impact they are already having. Imagine these 2 guys staying until they're JR year in college and imagine the numbers they would be putting up. Look at nearly every top American big man in the league and the numbers they put up as a freshman in college and compare that.

Then when you get a chance look at these video's so you can get a better feel of how WCS and Austin can impact a team in the NBA.

Austin Early Season Baylor Highlights
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgQ6wIivW7o

WCS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZQak7FmZms

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjNZtUGl4Ko

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WCS is going top 5

A risk worth taking IMO. Athletic hard working freak. Steal if he slips passed 5. Austin is a guy I would consider in the lottery. He is boarding better than I expected. I would consider him based on needs. He does seem a little underrated on here. His scoring and rebounding numbers would likely increase if he came back and that says a lot.

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IDK WCS might be a steal and

IDK WCS might be a steal and a team might take a gamble on him, I think his potential is good, just for the simple fact he's 7 foot and basketball was never his main sport, football was so he could just now be getting serious about basketball which if is true has to make his potential that much greater.

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Isaiah Austin reminds me too

Isaiah Austin reminds me too much of Byron Mullens. I'm not going to say I wouldn't take him in the lottery but I wouldnt take him in the top 10. He can't play center, he is strictly a stretch power forward.

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My thoughts

Isaiah Austin = Bust. You guys heard it here first.

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Stein is worth a top 12 pick

Stein is worth a top 12 pick in this weak draft but is just too raw to take high. His athleticism and length are good, but not elite. He is not close to the game changer Noel is on D as we watch Kentucky get walloped by unranked teams. He has put on some weight but would still look like a tooth pick in the NBA. He could never get up to 270 like Drummond without losing all his athleticism, he doesn't have the frame.

A decent prospect, but madly overated by the OP.

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