share

why is Julius Randle's stock dropping so much?

3agles
Registered User
Joined: 01/23/2013
Posts: 31
Points: -5
Offline
why is Julius Randle's stock dropping so much?

Is the upside of Exum, Embiid, Smart and Lavine just that much better than his or he is just performing poorly? A couple of weeks ago he was a top 5 lock, now he has fallen to 7th overall. Thoughts? Maybe an explanation...


WolfRob
WolfRob's picture
Registered User
Joined: 01/30/2012
Posts: 621
Points: 2474
Offline
Personally I still think he's

Personally I still think he's a top 5 lock.

ahuang16
Registered User
Joined: 11/06/2013
Posts: 22
Points: 30
Online
Turnovers

I think because Kentucky has struggled against ranked teams this year and also with holding on to the basketball, all of their prospects have dropped on most boards. Cauley-Stein has been moved to the 2015 draft and both of the Harrison twins have had a dip in their draft stocks. Randle does have a tendency to be a bit careless with the ball when powering to the hoop and sometimes his defense can be more lackluster then some executives might want it to be. But I also seriously doubt that there will be three teams within the top five that decide that point guard is their biggest weakness.

Siggy
Registered User
Joined: 02/25/2012
Posts: 2926
Points: 5183
Offline
He has shot 48% from the

He has shot 48% from the floor since the Michigan St game which is not good for a player whose shots have come primarily from the interior. He also has not made a single jump shot all yr. Julius struggled with Baylor's length and he mentally checked out in the UNC game. He's averaging over 4 TOs a game per 36 too. His defense has been bad as well, both on and off the ball.

So yeah, I'd say his own play has caused his stock to go down. IDK about LaVine, but Embiid's stock has affected Randle's.

Lindsey
Registered User
Joined: 12/09/2012
Posts: 265
Points: 568
Offline
I agree. Also, I dont like

I agree. Also, I dont like his way of getting shots up in the post. too many pumps and pivots and he always has to stretch too much to get his angles and openings. I dont see him being successful on the low block in the league. Foul line extended and strong drives from the perimeter, yes, but i cant see him getting his own down low.

Also just gotta say after years of lurking before I logged in, Siggy is a goat poster....and joe wolf too.

TarHeelRaven
TarHeelRaven's picture
Registered User
Joined: 07/30/2013
Posts: 587
Points: 1131
Offline
Julius Randle will be fine. I

Julius Randle will be fine. I still think he is a lock for the top 5. I think he is the most NBA ready freshman this year. I'm surprised how much he struggled against the front line of UNC. He really had a chance to prove his skill and toughness in Chapel Hill, but came up short. He had a season low in rebounds which was very surprising to me. Julius Randle is still a man and I think he will bounce back and continue to have a strong season for Coach Cal.

bennydabull
bennydabull's picture
Registered User
Joined: 01/01/2010
Posts: 350
Points: 773
Offline
If he's struggling now, how

If he's struggling now, how will he fare against bigger, lengthier guys in the NBA? I agree with him being a top 5 lock but most NBA ready? Gotta give that to Jabari.

B-ball fan
Registered User
Joined: 08/01/2009
Posts: 2108
Points: 2236
Offline
I think Randle's stock is

I think Randle's stock is much more dependent upon his production than other players. He is known for his scoring and rebounding. When he has an off game in either of those categories, it hurts him more than prospects like Wiggins and Embiid, whose values extend beyond the box score and whose status as prospects is less based upon production. Randle has been extremely productive and efficient early on, but he absolutely needs to be one of the most productive and efficient prospects to be a top-5 pick, given his lack of positional versatility, limited defensive potential, and an offensive game that is dependent upon him being able to score.

I like Randle as a top-5 pick, but if team fit will have a lot more to say about where he will be drafted than for more versatile players, such as Wiggins, Parker, and Smart. Randle won't just fit on any team and if the right team doesn't pick top-5, I could see him slipping.

steviechillz
steviechillz's picture
Registered User
Joined: 12/07/2009
Posts: 291
Points: 518
Offline
Julius Randle is averaging 17

Julius Randle is averaging 17 and 11, is shooting 55% on a so-far lackluster Kentucky basketball team, yet his stock drops bc hes playing to his strengths and not taking so many threes???

i get the turnovers, but there hasn't been any real PG play at kentucky and he has to have the ball in his hands most of the time and the spacing on the Kentucky floor is awful. Young is the only guy who can shoot, which will lead to a Freshman PF commiting turnovers while avergaing 2 assists a game.

I dont get it, Andrew Wiggins has struggled mightily, yet Randle has played well, yet he drops out of the TOP 5? Come on man. He's TOP 5 for sure!!

Lindsey
Registered User
Joined: 12/09/2012
Posts: 265
Points: 568
Offline
To say that Wiggins is

To say that Wiggins is struggling mightily is just proving you got swept up in those Lebron comparisons and expected him to play like a league vet right out of the gate. Being the top offensive and defensive producing player on a team like Kansas as an 18 yr old is phenomenal. And if he's still struggling in some peoples eyes....even more of a reason to take him as high as possible.

kazam
kazam's picture
Registered User
Joined: 12/20/2012
Posts: 248
Points: 669
Offline
Maybe I am just being

Maybe I am just being ignorant to some aspects of Randle's game and admittedly I havent been privy to many Kentucky games this year, but arent his strengths and weaknesses eerily similar to that of Anthony Bennett?

kazam
kazam's picture
Registered User
Joined: 12/20/2012
Posts: 248
Points: 669
Offline
Maybe I am just being

Maybe I am just being ignorant to some aspects of Randle's game and admittedly I havent been privy to many Kentucky games this year, but arent his strengths and weaknesses eerily similar to that of Anthony Bennett?

zack to the rac...
Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2013
Posts: 8
Points: 36
Offline
much different

if you watch i think you can notice a large difference in their games, randle has much more guard qualities than bennett has in my opinion. more versatile. smoother game even. has a lot of east west, and north south, bennett has yet to show that to me.

B-ball fan
Registered User
Joined: 08/01/2009
Posts: 2108
Points: 2236
Offline
Randle is very different from

Randle is very different from Bennett simply in that he plays inside way more. Randle seldom takes jump shots, scoring almost exclusively in the lane, at the rim, or from the charity stripe. Bennett took many more jump shots and would shoot more jumpers out of the post, rather than attacking the rim out of the post. Randle also has shown more ability with his back to the basket, although Randle still faces up more than he should. Bennett was just a more perimeter oriented player, while Randle is more of a Z-Bo-style interior player.

zack to the rac...
Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2013
Posts: 8
Points: 36
Offline
randles versatility, strength etc.

after over a decade of lurking the message boards i have decided to join, just because i wanted to, not because this particular topic inspired me to, so having said that, i think randle should be a top 5 pick. not necessarily any higher, but right around there, he is extremely versatile, and i think currently what we are seeing in the early stages of his college career is his ability to adapt to the competition. he seems like a player who gets things done, no matter how he needs to. so yes, maybe currently he isnt knocking down jump shots or getting by his defenders with nba style post moves, but he has shown a lot none the less. the ability to grab rebounds and start the play by running the floor, and looks in control, can make the right pass, and gets himself into good positions, he doesnt look lost on the floor, kind of reminds me of terrence jones at the moment. and a jumpshot is something we have seen people work on, and his is not broke. i think he has the skills, physical abilities, natural attributes, the smarts and basketball iq, good awareness, and intangibles all in abundance and enough to translate it to the nba against bigger stronger players, i just think we might see a change in his game. but to say that based on the way he is scoring in the college game you dont think he w ill be effective in the NBA, is although not completely unfair, but in this particular case i think it is wrong. maybe im crazy. i think top 5 prospects are in no order, wiggins, parker, smart, embiid, and randle.

DaGuywhodidurma
DaGuywhodidurma's picture
Registered User
Joined: 04/15/2010
Posts: 210
Points: 483
Offline
I dont think its that randles

I dont think its that randles stock has fallen as much as people having figured him out. At this point I think everyone has him penciled in as a 18-20 ppg and 10rpg guy at the nba level. I think hes become the safest pick in the draft. So as peoples stock rise and drop he moves up or down not because he isnt good but because people have already made up their mind on him. Wether that is fair or not I dont know but I think thats what is going on.

Tongue-Out-Like-23
Tongue-Out-Like-23's picture
Registered User
Joined: 03/16/2010
Posts: 8307
Points: 11858
Offline
I still think he's an

I still think he's an All-Star.

This is how good this draft is, a guy that's a possible All-Star is seen to slide out of the top-5. I mean, there are 6 or 7 guys in this draft that can be franchise changers.

dacula18
Registered User
Joined: 05/03/2010
Posts: 56
Points: 175
Offline
You nailed it. While I'm not

You nailed it. While I'm not sure he will be an All-Star, I'm sure he will be solid. But when you have the chance to land a franchise changer (Parker, Wiggins, Embiid) a good starter, or even an All-Star, doesn't seem as appealing.

surve
surve's picture
Registered User
Joined: 03/19/2010
Posts: 2890
Points: 4502
Offline
I agree, I think he can have

I agree, I think he can have have some AS appearances. Stock will rise/fall and rightfully so. He has his weaknesses. I think the stock drop has a lot to do with him being ineffective outside of the paint. He doesnt have the craftiness yet to deal with athletic players his size on either end of the court.

Aran_Smith
Administrator
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 354
Points: 1324
Offline
Randle

Randle's stock has only fallen if you bought into the #1 overall pick hype that was put out there. He was 5th on our board when the season started. 4 overall was about as high as he has climbed. His stock hasn't really changed that much- players like Embiid and LaVine (in our view) have passed him... The major questions with Randle are will he continue to work hard and how much does he improve. He should be a lock to be a productive pro even if he stays at his current level, but can he thrive in any environment? How will he handle playing on a losing team? His success likely hinges on landing in the right situation more so than the others. His post game is a far cry from Zach Randolph who even as a freshman at Michigan State had a better post game than 80% of NBA bigs. Randle is actually better facing the basket.

He's obviously a physical specimen, but NBA scouts are not as high on him as you might think. Some have flat out stated they do not want him. Despite the jaw dropping physical attributes, he is not a top 5 lock in such a strong draft.

Curious to hear what makes him clearly a better prospect than Exum or LaVine?

lakeshow22
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2012
Posts: 475
Points: 422
Offline
Can LaVine really play the

Can LaVine really play the point in the nba? That hasn't been his role at ucla so I'm curious to see if he can make the transition

Aran_Smith
Administrator
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 354
Points: 1324
Offline
LeVine at PG

Great question. He played PG in high school but it's a mystery how much of a PG he can develop into. This season isn't going to tell us much about that with Slow Mo running the show... That's really a key question for him, and something teams will want to try to simulate as much as possible in workouts (if he comes out). In Pauley runs, he supposedly plays on the ball a fair amount, pushing the ball up the floor and has shown solid decision making.

rileymcshea3
rileymcshea3's picture
Registered User
Joined: 03/31/2011
Posts: 1481
Points: 1477
Offline
Aaron it's great to see you

Aaron it's great to see you on here, I hope to see more comments from you

Aran_Smith
Administrator
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 354
Points: 1324
Offline
Thanks. I will try to join

Thanks. I will try to join the discussion more often.

aaucoach
Registered User
Joined: 04/24/2013
Posts: 95
Points: 74
Offline
lavine doesnt have to play

lavine doesnt have to play the point in the nba.he is 6'5,super athletic and a great jumpshot

Ghost01
Ghost01's picture
Registered User
Joined: 11/30/2010
Posts: 2793
Points: 1740
Offline
Amazing how because Embiid is

Amazing how because Embiid is 7 feet tall and has a couple of post moves, he some how has moved ahead of a guy who has been far superior statistically, and is a much more polished player. I don't get it, I really don't.

anthony_DavIS23
anthony_DavIS23's picture
Registered User
Joined: 09/19/2011
Posts: 180
Points: 361
Offline
I don't see what everyone

I don't see what everyone else sees in Lavine. He rarely attacks the ring in the half court and can't create his own shot. At the moment he is just an athletic 3 point shooter. Kinda like Jeremy Lamb but without the ability to get open off ball. I believe Randle is still ahead of LaVine, as for Embiid - I still don't know why people say he's raw, he's already super talented and has a lot more potential

RapCity
Registered User
Joined: 06/16/2012
Posts: 40
Points: 130
Offline
Randle's Stock

Randle's stocks dipping mainly cause he doesn't use his right hand, literally hasn't hit a jumpshot outside the key all year till this day and he's turnover prone. The good thing is, all his knocks are all easily fixable. He may be 7th on the charts right now but if he slips out the top 5 some GM's are going to be fired for passing on this kid.

essop25
Registered User
Joined: 08/05/2013
Posts: 1
Points: 2
Offline
LaVine/Embiid

Hey...new to this site...

Is LaVine's stock really higher than Randle? From what I've seen, I would think he needs another year in college, though, admittedly, I haven't watched many UCLA games. In regard to Embiid, he's not a 7 footer with a couple of post moves. His range in the post, as well as his basketball IQ, are impressive, especially considering how little experience he has. I don't know that I'd take him over Parker/Wiggins, but I'd definitely consider taking him over Randle.

anthony_DavIS23
anthony_DavIS23's picture
Registered User
Joined: 09/19/2011
Posts: 180
Points: 361
Offline
Couldn't agree more man

I think Embiid is special, that dream shake against Alex Kirk was amazing

anthony_DavIS23
anthony_DavIS23's picture
Registered User
Joined: 09/19/2011
Posts: 180
Points: 361
Offline
Couldn't agree more about

Couldn't agree more about Embiid bro

aaucoach
Registered User
Joined: 04/24/2013
Posts: 95
Points: 74
Offline
randles stock is dropping

randles stock is dropping because he hasnt shown that he can score down low against any kind of length or guys of similar size and athletic ability.he had a a great game against msu but majority of those buckets came against the 6'6 dawson instead of payne.he likes to float to the perimeter but rarely shoots or does anything out there and his pick and roll defense has been absolutely attrocious.i dont think its anyway he slips out of the top 5 but their is alot not to like about his game at this point

ibe12
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2013
Posts: 114
Points: 190
Offline
I hope Randle does fall

I personally hope Randle does fall. As a Sixer fan my ideal best case scenario is them getting Parker and Randle. MCW, Noel, Randle and Parker would be nice building blocks.

toronto ball
Registered User
Joined: 03/28/2009
Posts: 2
Points: 6
Offline
Great site and board. The

Great site and board.

The enthusiasm over Randle may have been primarily over what we have observed from him in college, i.e. working down low, getting points and rebounds against weaker, less athletic players. What we have not seen (which he may yet be able to do or at least develop) is a perimeter game. The dominant low post game, at 6'9", he will not be able to depend primarily on in the NBA against power forwards and centers taller and more athletic than him. Watching college can be misleading like this. I think eventuallly he adjusts and becomes a good NBA player, but not as the 20/10 post player we see, but with more of a inside/out game.

I think personally that stock should be about what a player will project to, not a measure of the ups and downs of his development. Otherwise, you'll be changing your draft board every month based on current performance. Certainly, pro scouts may adjust their projections of a player based on new observations, but I think ratings should rarely change except for players you haven't had a chance to observe (eg. Exum).

I think maybe LaVine should stay another year to play the point (assuming Anderson leaves) and perhaps compete for number one in 2014.

BigChamp12
Registered User
Joined: 06/17/2011
Posts: 672
Points: 1360
Offline
My take on Randle

Personally I think he is definitely a top 5 LOCK. I know the site has him number 7 right now, but he'll be moved up and down several times over the next 5 or 6 months. I guarantee NBA GMS dont let him slip past the 5th spot on the actual draft.

As for is decrease in field goal percentage the past few games. I think its because the degree of difficulty of the shots he has been taking. The Harrison twins are great players, but they aren't setting Randle up for easy buckets. He has to work for everything he gets. Teams are keying in on him and causing him to force up tough shots. They are in the paint, but they are still tough shots with 2 to 3 people guading him. One-on-one he's a monster and I think everyone notices that. That's why he is never guarded one-on-one. So instead of focusing on the point that his field goal percentage is dropping, I think we should focus on why it is dropping... Which is because he dbl and tripled team and no one on his team is creating for him.

Aran_Smith
Administrator
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 354
Points: 1324
Offline
Randle / LaVine

Really enjoying this thread. A lot of great points have been brought up.

Randle's offense issues are numerous, he's not knocking down outside shots with much regularity - I do think he has touch and will develop into a quality mid range shooter. And his post game being very raw - he focused on ball handling and facing up much more in HS and it's showing now. He developed a number of bad habits in AAU, for one exposing the ball and in college teams are collapsing on him leading to high turnovers. In his favor, the NBA game is more spread out, but he still needs to learn better ball value/protection. He needs a post game for the next level (and SEC play) and doesn't have much of one. He just bulls through opponents and hopes for a foul. I think often times, players don't start focusing on the right aspects of their games until they reach college. You can bet Randle's post offense and defense are his main day to day focus. He also needs to learn better positioning and intensity on D... Randle has cruised against the soft early schedule but is beginning to realize that when teams collapse on him - as they generally do on every team's best player, his natural talent will not be enough to get it done. The adversity is exactly what he needs to learn and now we'll see how he handles it, and adjusts his game. He surprised some (scouts) by showing a willingness to be coached and be a sponge early on, yet he has shown some negative reactions to coaching on the bench and during games recently. The versatility he possesses to handle the ball and pass it for his size and strength makes him very versatile and unique.

LaVine's ability to pull up on a dime and elevate so high allows him to create his shot against almost anyone. He still needs to become more crafty at using fakes and rocking defenders off balance the way Stephen Curry does. Curry would be the player for him to study from an offensive perspective. The criticism about his unwillingness to attack the basket off the dribble may be valid, but it's not for a lack of quickness, and I do think his handle will continue to improve. He also is likely asked to roll off of screens to get shots (Alford offensive style) instead of creating off the dribble and potentially turning the ball over.

Is LaVine's stock really above Randle's? On a majority of NBA scout's lists Randle is higher, but certainly not all. We don't solely go by a consensus of NBA scouts as we do have our own opinion. And this is a projection of the draft, it isn't tomorrow. If the draft were tomorrow, Randle would probably be 4th on the mock and 7th on the Big Board.

JNixon
JNixon's picture
Registered User
Joined: 04/14/2009
Posts: 12959
Points: 11522
Offline
I think Randle has big time

I think Randle has big time offensive potential. He doesnt show a jumper and he has some fundamental issues as far as creating for himself, but his 1st step is dynamic for a man his size, his footwork is ood too and he already looks like a man physically. Not to mention he has good touch. He needs to work on developing his shot and becoming a more devoted player.

Randle seems like a guy who will have to grow into a player who has a winning attitude and put aside selfishness to reach his potential.

Ghost01
Ghost01's picture
Registered User
Joined: 11/30/2010
Posts: 2793
Points: 1740
Offline
I've come to accept Randle is

I've come to accept Randle is probably going behind Embiid. There is a good chance both Dante Exum and Marcus Smart go before him too. But there is NO WAY Lavine is going ahead of him unless that dude improves a ton. Right now, its not even a comparison.

Hitster
Hitster's picture
Registered User
Joined: 08/17/2010
Posts: 3491
Points: 2539
Offline
Randle has looked impressive

Randle has looked impressive from what I have seen so far but the 2014 draft is loaded. The majority of us probably have Wiggins and Parker in our top 3, Smart IMO is a safe top 5 lock, Embiid is picking up a lot of hype as any skilled big will. Throw in Dante Exum who some GM will think they know a bit more about than others do and he has that X-Factor being an International Guy and you have a legit top 5 with Randle not in it and that's before you consider the claims of guys like LaVine, Selden etc.

I'd say Randle is a top 8 lock but I would not commit further than that.

tbennett76
Registered User
Joined: 12/23/2013
Posts: 20
Points: -30
Offline
The draft

is hyped. But after the top four, it is just as random as any other.

Hitster
Hitster's picture
Registered User
Joined: 08/17/2010
Posts: 3491
Points: 2539
Offline
Next year's draft is

Next year's draft is genuinely potentially deeper than any since about 2008 and if some of the freshers this year decide to stay another year then 2015 will also be rammed.

RSS: Syndicate content