Why I would pick Wiggins number 1
First off I know this is a tired topic, but I do want to address the common notion on this site (and with draft pundits internet-wide) that he is a hit or miss prospect.
I truly believe he is the prospect with not only the highest upside, but quite possibly one of the highest basements as well.
I feel that if he doesnt advance at all in his basketball skills or athleticism (granted he will get heavier naturally) that he will still be an excellent defender, and someone who can knock down 3's at around 35-40% who wont stop the ball, be an intelligent and unselfish offensive player, who is explosive in transition. That seems like a more rich mans Josh Smith to me.
What makes me feel that he will ALWAYS be a contributing and WINNING basketball player is his demeanor. People talk about it like its a bad thing because "superstar players" need that hint of F*ck You to their games, but I have never seen such a highly rated recruit come in with such a team-first mentality and you saw that at Kansas. A lot of his *bad games* we're great team games for Kansas, and instead of focusing on his offensive struggles he was still great defensively and found ways to effect the game. You dont see that often in the superstar player, and is why you often see these guys who are so highly rated just fall off completely, they dont have the mental make up to adjust to their roles. I dont see that issue with Wiggins if he doesnt max out (Something I do with almost everyone else in the top 5 Randle, Embiid, Jabari, Exum).
Also I do see Wiggins game being very condusive to maximizing the skill sets of all these 6-2 to 6-4 combo guards in the league right now. Guys like Monta Ellis, Waiters, Oj Mayo, etc etc. I dont see them being succesful with many of todays ball dominant nba superstars. I can see Wiggins having the type of game that can play well with these type of players, and in the passed we have seen them be very effective in the playoffs with teams that have these type of superstars.
*not saying him and wiggins have a similar game at all, but Dirk Nowitzki is one of those guys who is great with these combo guard/short shooting guard players, as Ellis was great this year, and That short puerto rican might have been their most important player in the playoffs the year they won the chip.
Sorry for the long post, but all in all, I just dont see Wiggins being so hit or miss. He is either a transcendent allstar 2 way player at best, or a supremely athletic 3 and D who is dynamite in transition AT WORST.
Be excellent to yourselves and everyone you love.
I'm a Jabari fan - he's the guy I want to succeed more than anyone else. But I'd pick Wiggins #1. At worst I see him becoming an Iggy-type player. At best he could become the best player since KD. By the way, I also think Jabari could become a top 5 player in the NBA. However, Wiggins dominance on D just gives him the edge as a prospect in my book.
I also think Embiid could become a monster. However, since I feel this way about each of these three prospects, I prefer a wing. I just think dominant wing players hold the edge in today's NBA.
That is, of course, until the next truly 2-way dominant center comes along, which could very well be Embiid. He can be a game changer for the center position.
I think if embids back is solid, he's the top pick. He also is the exact type of player that they need to put next to Bennett if they want to play Bennett big minutes and redeem that pick.
I still really like Bennett. I had him on the top of my board last year (like Cleveland). Maybe I shouldn't tell people that... Anyway, I love the idea of pairing them.
Next, they could use more SG/SF types who can shoot (Deng is supposed to walk). Karasev will be good in a few years (please add muscle), but they'd have extra centers and PF's to trade and they should make something happen. Fun times for the undeserving Cleveland.
Great point and I really see Embiid fitting in very nicely with the Cavs as Thompson doesn't need to play the 5 anymore and Thompson and Bennet compliment Embiid very well.
I only have one problem selecting Embiid over both Parker and Wiggins. It's only a gut feeling and I really can't make a proper argument about it but something tells me Embiid won't be able to be a 30 +mpg player even if his back will be all right. Someone brought up the fact that Embiid played like 600 or 700 minutes in Kansas this year and beeing NBA starting center playing all 82 games means to play 4 times this minutes.
There aren't many centers in the league who play 30 or more minutes right now and somehow I don't think Wiggins and Parker won't have the problems to handle that. In short I have concerns that even if Embiid pans out nicely, he won't be able to handle really big minutes and full time 82 plus games over multiple years down the road. From a talent standpoint alone Embiid seems like a really good fit for the Cavs but I really don't know. On the other hand I don't want either Parker and especially Wiggins to land in Cleveland to fill Brons shoes there as the next best thing after Bron cause this might be a burden neither of them could handle.
I don't believe that he doesn't have the mentality to be a superstar.The only reason he didn't take over more games is because his dribbling ability and finishing ability were just not good enough.If he had been more 'agressive',he would just have had more turnovers.If he can improve his dribbling and finishing ability(a huge if honestly,although i think he will),then with his athleticism,and improving non broken jump shot,the sky is the limit.
With that said,Embiid if stays healthy could be the best center in the league in 5 years or less(im considering Anthony Davis a 4).If healthy,again that word,i think there is less risk .But obviously if hes not 100% healthy,i agree with you,Wiggins should be the pick.
I agree with much of what you said but the rich man's Josh Smith is way off. "An intelligent, unselfish offensive player who can knock down 3's at 35-40%" is the anti Josh Smith. Smith has never shot over 33% from 3 and continues to shoot 3's like he is Dirk. He took more 3's than George Hill and Dion Waiters this season despite both those guys shooting 36% to his 26%.
Smith is also more of a 4 that was forced to play the 3 because Detroits two best players are bigs in Monroe and Drummond. I look at Wiggins floor as more around a combination of Rudy Gay and Kawhi Leonard.
Iggy isn't a bad floor comparison because of their quality perimeter defense, athleticism and criticism for lack of assertiveness however Iggy was a much better ball handler and passer than Wiggins is at that stage. Wiggins averaged 1.5 assists per game at KU where Iggy averaged twice that in 2 years at U of A with 5 per game his sophomore season and averages 5 assists per game over his NBA career.
agreed I don't know where the josh smith came from hes a better pf and not a great shooter.
and iggy was a better passer and more aggressive he just lacked the ability to hit the shoots or make the plays that would have made him the super star cause iggy has the athletic and all around game he just doesn't have the touch at time that would make him elite hes more jack of all trades
The Rich Mans Josh Smith came in because wiggins does indeed have a good head on his sholders and is a better shooter. Josh Smith shoots more than he should, but I would love if wiggins could make his athleticism felt in the same way, whilst shooting better and being a better teammate. He did measure out to be 6-9 with a 7 wingspan which is similar to smiths.
how do you figure he has the highest basement ?
jabari is the safest pick right now he could be a second or third option on a team look how teams like the pacers,grizz,hawks,etc struggle to score at times. at worst he can have a danny granger type of career without the fading out like granger is doing now.
wiggins as worst is a super athletic trevor ariza if he doesn't improve at best a paul george /kwhai type of player because he lacks the alpha male aggression but has tremendous natural athletic
so at worst jabari is still an allstar player
wiggins is not a sure allstar at worst but
all star appperances don't always give you titles and you cant justifiable say wiggins has a higher basement then parker wiggins has a higher upside TRUE but not a higher basement if that was the case parker wouldn't be the safest pick
He's not the safest pick? If Jabari doesnt end up shooting the ball well in the league he's gonna wind up being an inefficient scorer on a bad team. Generally I would take a 2-3 (4th sometimes) player on a chip level team over many stars on lottery bound teams.
dirk maybe good with them because hes opens the floor as not only a stretch 4 but a scorer his self the team is built around his scoring lead and monta is the scond scorer I like wiggins but we aren't playing him at the pf now
and "team player" you can interpret his performances in different way
I see Wiggins' mental makeup as being a huge positive especially for the Cavs team. They need someone they can plug in right away and can make an impact. Will he be the best offensive player right away? No, but he will be an upgrade over any player the Cavs have from a defensive standpoint. I am not saying his floor is the highest, but I will say that his floor is much higher than Embiid's simply because of injuries. Contrary to popular belief (sarcasm I hope), you can't tell if a person's back is 100% just because he moves around well in a closed workout session. That is what doctor's are for Bill Simmons.