[JM40Participant]

After learning that Paul George was not even a top 150 prospect coming out of HS, here is an analysis of the past ten years as to why HS ranking does not always translate into NBA potential.  The first line are 5 overrated prospects, and the second line are 5 prospects that were overlooked….

(NR) = Not Ranked in top 150

2003-

#4 Ndubi Ebi-#7 David Padgett-#8 James Lang-#12 Mustafa Shakur-#16 Olu Famutimi

#29 Ronnie Brewer-#34 Aaron Brooks-#88 Dominic McGuire-#130 Paul Millsap-Roy Hibbert (NR)

2004-

#7 Malik Hairston-#8 Earl Smith-#9 Joe Crawford-#10 Randolph Morris-#14 Robert Swift

#16 LaMarcus Aldridge-#25 Rajon Rondo-#26 Aaron Afflalo-#36 Al Horford-#75 Joakim Noah

2005-

#8 Julian Wright-#9 Richard Hendrix-#11 Greg Paulus-#14 Keith Brumbaugh-#16 Jamont Gordon

#44 Wilson Chandler-#85 Wesley Matthews-#100 Darren Collison-Stephen Curry (NR)-Russell Westbrook (NR)

2006-

#7 Javaris Crittenden-#12 Paul Harris-#14 Stanley Robinson-#15 Davon Jefferson-#19 Obi Muonelo

#32 Taj Gibson-#39 Jodie Meeks-#46 Grievis Vasquez-#49 DJ Augustin-Kenneth Faried (NR)

2007-

#7 Bill Walker-#9 Donte Greene-#15 Austin Freeman-#18 Mac Koshwal-#20 Craig Brackins

#23 Blake Griffin-#49 Evan Turner-#115 Mike Scott-Damian Lillard (NR)-Paul George (NR)

2008-

#5 Scotty Hopson-#9 Samardo Samuels-#10 Willie Warren-#12 Ater Majok-#17 Ty Walker

#39 Iman Shumpert-#51 Klay Thompson-#97 Isaiah Thomas-#115 Reggie Jackson-#122 Draymond Green

2009-

#7 Michael Snaer-#9 Tiny Gallon-#10 Mouphtaou Yarou-#12 Kenny Boynton-#13 Abdul Gaddy

#23 Eric Bledsoe-#31 Thomas Robinson-#48 Kawhi Leonard-#55 Mason Plumlee-#93 Greg Smith

2010-

#1 Josh Selby-#11 Will Barton-#12 Tony Mitchell-#14 CJ Leslie-#15 Jelan Kendrick

#29 Dion Waiters-#31 Meyers Leonard-#44 Gorgui Dieng-#76 Jeremy Lamb-#144 Victor Oladipo

2011-

#5 Marquis Teague-#6 LeBryan Nash-#7 Quincy Miller-#11 Josiah Turner-#17 Adonis Thomas

#15 Cody Zeller-#29 Michael Carter-Williams-#34 Ben McLemore-#37 Otto Porter-#142 Trey Burke

2012-

#6 Ricardo Ledo-#12 Rodney Purvis-#15 Grant Jerrett-#16 Kris Dunn-#18 Rasheed Sulaimon

#40 Willie Cauley-Stein-#62 Jordan Adams-#64 Jerami Grant-#71 Nik Stauskas-#82 Montrezl Harrell

2013 (I didn’t add a first line because I felt it was too early to assess, but here are the overlooked prospects)-

#21 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson-#22 Tyler Ennis-#25 Joel Embiid-#32 Jabari Bird-#44 Zach LaVine

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nick5354Participant]

There are just so many high players out there. No scouting and ranking coming out of high school are accurate, but they are the best indication of talent at the moment. How else are scouts meant to evaluate prospects? Look into their magic ball and see who is the best NBA and College players from years into the future? There are so many variables that make high school ranking difficult.

They are deff not the bee all and end all.

[nick5354Participant]

There are just so many high players out there. No scouting and ranking coming out of high school are accurate, but they are the best indication of talent at the moment. How else are scouts meant to evaluate prospects? Look into their magic ball and see who is the best NBA and College players from years into the future? There are so many variables that make high school ranking difficult.

They are deff not the bee all and end all.

[Fat_JefeParticipant]

 no doubt they don’t mean much but they’re based on potential… so when you look at these rankings you have to learn the person to know how high their ceiling, learn the things you can’t teach like attitude (Randle) determined to be the best (Parker)… like Wiggins he has the biggest upside but does he have heart or the will to want to develop his game to be the best…

[Fat_JefeParticipant]

 no doubt they don’t mean much but they’re based on potential… so when you look at these rankings you have to learn the person to know how high their ceiling, learn the things you can’t teach like attitude (Randle) determined to be the best (Parker)… like Wiggins he has the biggest upside but does he have heart or the will to want to develop his game to be the best…

[phwillParticipant]

 more reflected a player’s readiness to contribute in college, i.e. 5 stars – immediate high-evel contributor, 4-star – start within a year, etc.  2 stars and lower to me mean the player didn’t do AAU or scouts didn’t evaluate him.  It does seem reasonable to assume if a scouting service is rating a HS player highly, they’re expecting some translation to the NBA, but I don’t think the ratings take into account size for position or ceiling.  Injuries can really sap a player’s potential through the duration of college too (Bill Walker comes to mind).

[phwillParticipant]

 more reflected a player’s readiness to contribute in college, i.e. 5 stars – immediate high-evel contributor, 4-star – start within a year, etc.  2 stars and lower to me mean the player didn’t do AAU or scouts didn’t evaluate him.  It does seem reasonable to assume if a scouting service is rating a HS player highly, they’re expecting some translation to the NBA, but I don’t think the ratings take into account size for position or ceiling.  Injuries can really sap a player’s potential through the duration of college too (Bill Walker comes to mind).

[qDizzle32Participant]

IMO the the 2 best players from 2008 (Paul George and Damian Lillard) weren’t even ranked. So those never mean anything after those guys graduate. 

[qDizzle32Participant]

IMO the the 2 best players from 2008 (Paul George and Damian Lillard) weren’t even ranked. So those never mean anything after those guys graduate. 

[3 No Biases 3Participant]

Appreciate the research on the post, interesting to see. To be fair though alot of those higher ranked prospects did have quite a bit of talent.  Situations, IQ, and determination have more to do with prospects failing and vice versa.  The same goes with all research, the players you mentioned are the exception, not the norm.  Most of the time the HS rankings do get it close.  

[3 No Biases 3Participant]

Appreciate the research on the post, interesting to see. To be fair though alot of those higher ranked prospects did have quite a bit of talent.  Situations, IQ, and determination have more to do with prospects failing and vice versa.  The same goes with all research, the players you mentioned are the exception, not the norm.  Most of the time the HS rankings do get it close.  

[TarHeelRavenParticipant]

 that’s cool that you did all that research to find guys rankings in high school.  The rankings of guys coming out of high school really have no relevance to how that player will develop down the road.  Obviously those rankings don’t include character concerns, work ethic, red flags and other miscellaneous information about the player.  The so called "experts’ who put the rankings together, many of them haven’t played ball at a high level or even coached any basketball at all.  They are getting paid to give their opinions.  It’s just really hard to project how players will pan out down the road.  Of course, the Lebron’s and Kevin Durant’s, guys at the top of their class rankings were can’t miss, but you just never know with a prospect.  Obviously you can’t predict injuries (Greg Oden).  Just because guys are ranked top 5 in their class does not guarantee basketball success in college or the NBA.  As you put on here, guys like Klay Thompson, Lillard, Victor Oladipo, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, guys who were ranked low in their class or not even ranked at all and are having great success in the NBA.  

 

[TarHeelRavenParticipant]

 that’s cool that you did all that research to find guys rankings in high school.  The rankings of guys coming out of high school really have no relevance to how that player will develop down the road.  Obviously those rankings don’t include character concerns, work ethic, red flags and other miscellaneous information about the player.  The so called "experts’ who put the rankings together, many of them haven’t played ball at a high level or even coached any basketball at all.  They are getting paid to give their opinions.  It’s just really hard to project how players will pan out down the road.  Of course, the Lebron’s and Kevin Durant’s, guys at the top of their class rankings were can’t miss, but you just never know with a prospect.  Obviously you can’t predict injuries (Greg Oden).  Just because guys are ranked top 5 in their class does not guarantee basketball success in college or the NBA.  As you put on here, guys like Klay Thompson, Lillard, Victor Oladipo, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, guys who were ranked low in their class or not even ranked at all and are having great success in the NBA.  

 

[BallinmvpParticipant]

 A players heart and dedication to getting better. Like a someone said earlier, highschool rankings really just give scouts a way to see who seems most college ready. With size, skill, level of competition, and future projections/ upside all taken into account.

[BallinmvpParticipant]

 A players heart and dedication to getting better. Like a someone said earlier, highschool rankings really just give scouts a way to see who seems most college ready. With size, skill, level of competition, and future projections/ upside all taken into account.

[DukeDaSquadParticipant]

 I don’t think that Rasheed Sulaimon or Ricardo ledo are or we’re overrated. Ledo just didn’t get to play in his only year in college and Sulaimon played well in college his freshamn year and was up and down in his sophomore year. I don’t think that ledo is getting the opportunity he deserves to play. Probably should have stayed in college to play his sophomore season and would have probably been a first rounder in this draft and would be in a better place to succeed 

 

also so when quincy miller entered the league he was injured I believe. Now that he is being given more playing time on the nuggets, he is showing that he belongs in the league. Not overrated to me

[DukeDaSquadParticipant]

 I don’t think that Rasheed Sulaimon or Ricardo ledo are or we’re overrated. Ledo just didn’t get to play in his only year in college and Sulaimon played well in college his freshamn year and was up and down in his sophomore year. I don’t think that ledo is getting the opportunity he deserves to play. Probably should have stayed in college to play his sophomore season and would have probably been a first rounder in this draft and would be in a better place to succeed 

 

also so when quincy miller entered the league he was injured I believe. Now that he is being given more playing time on the nuggets, he is showing that he belongs in the league. Not overrated to me

[Magic JordanParticipant]

 Well this isn’t exactly right, eventually RSCI does come into play.  Especially when you are looking at players in the 2nd round.  Now if you take just players in the lottery I am not exactly sure how important it is but it’s extremely rare for someone who is unranked is RSCI to end up a decent player.  

The other draft site just had an interesting article about this a few months back and what I deduced from the information they provided that in the 2nd round, the majority of players that end up contributing out of the 2nd round had a pretty high RSCI rating.

It listed players such as Montae Ellis, Kyle Singler, Deandre Jordan, Mo Williams, Trevor Ariza, Carlos Boozer, Chase Budinger, Lance Stephenson to name a few.  All are considered 2nd round steals and all had a top 20 RSCI ranking in their particular class.  The caveat being that it usually takes a few years for these players to get going once they get in the league, with a few exceptions like Ellis and Boozer.  

Also, if you look at it from just a numbers standpoint you are obviously going to find more examples of failure than you are success, due to the simple fact that there are an average of 15 players selected from each class (This is not a true number obviously but in broad terms it is true, 60/4 = 15. )  while most high school rankings rank 100 players per class.

 

 

 

[Magic JordanParticipant]

 Well this isn’t exactly right, eventually RSCI does come into play.  Especially when you are looking at players in the 2nd round.  Now if you take just players in the lottery I am not exactly sure how important it is but it’s extremely rare for someone who is unranked is RSCI to end up a decent player.  

The other draft site just had an interesting article about this a few months back and what I deduced from the information they provided that in the 2nd round, the majority of players that end up contributing out of the 2nd round had a pretty high RSCI rating.

It listed players such as Montae Ellis, Kyle Singler, Deandre Jordan, Mo Williams, Trevor Ariza, Carlos Boozer, Chase Budinger, Lance Stephenson to name a few.  All are considered 2nd round steals and all had a top 20 RSCI ranking in their particular class.  The caveat being that it usually takes a few years for these players to get going once they get in the league, with a few exceptions like Ellis and Boozer.  

Also, if you look at it from just a numbers standpoint you are obviously going to find more examples of failure than you are success, due to the simple fact that there are an average of 15 players selected from each class (This is not a true number obviously but in broad terms it is true, 60/4 = 15. )  while most high school rankings rank 100 players per class.

 

 

 

[Rip255]

 Going back to my high school days, the thing that made prospecting difficult was the different rate that the players developed physically.

At 16/17 years old, some of these guys are grown men who have reached their athletic prime and can dominate less mature players who have more talent and upside.

Just think about how Anthony Davis went from a guard to a PF in the transition from HS to College and turned into the #1 pick.

I think nba scouts have gotten better at identifying which young players are still growing (eg Greek Freak) and which just benefitted from early physical development.

[Rip255]

 Going back to my high school days, the thing that made prospecting difficult was the different rate that the players developed physically.

At 16/17 years old, some of these guys are grown men who have reached their athletic prime and can dominate less mature players who have more talent and upside.

Just think about how Anthony Davis went from a guard to a PF in the transition from HS to College and turned into the #1 pick.

I think nba scouts have gotten better at identifying which young players are still growing (eg Greek Freak) and which just benefitted from early physical development.

[Fat_JefeParticipant]

 another thing is college choices, college coaches and player choices you take a Josiah Turner(player), Ricardo Ledo(should have stayed), bill walker(coach playing him pf never developed  jump shot and blew knees out I believe both not sure), Scott hopson(should have stayed)Josh Shelby(school choice) Quincy Miller(school choice/should of stayed), Rodney Purvis(school choice)… then some people developing into men you have to they’re still growing mind and body… 

[Fat_JefeParticipant]

 another thing is college choices, college coaches and player choices you take a Josiah Turner(player), Ricardo Ledo(should have stayed), bill walker(coach playing him pf never developed  jump shot and blew knees out I believe both not sure), Scott hopson(should have stayed)Josh Shelby(school choice) Quincy Miller(school choice/should of stayed), Rodney Purvis(school choice)… then some people developing into men you have to they’re still growing mind and body… 

[NJHooper95Participant]

 Some of you guys are not using common sense. High School rankings are based on what they see from that player at that time, not what they will become in college or the pros. Its nots based off potential. You never know what may happen to a player in a year or two, they may grow more, improve their skill, or put on weight, but at that particular time the may not be as some guys that you see ranked ahead of them

[NJHooper95Participant]

 Some of you guys are not using common sense. High School rankings are based on what they see from that player at that time, not what they will become in college or the pros. Its nots based off potential. You never know what may happen to a player in a year or two, they may grow more, improve their skill, or put on weight, but at that particular time the may not be as some guys that you see ranked ahead of them

[TimeForNineParticipant]

 A lot of these guys I can remember being good college players but had games that didn’t translate to the NBA.

Also, just to clarify, Earl Smith (2004) is JR Smith. I have no clue how he gets the nickname "JR" from Earl, but it is JR Smith we’re talking about lol

 

[TimeForNineParticipant]

 A lot of these guys I can remember being good college players but had games that didn’t translate to the NBA.

Also, just to clarify, Earl Smith (2004) is JR Smith. I have no clue how he gets the nickname "JR" from Earl, but it is JR Smith we’re talking about lol

 

[C_MoneyParticipant]

By putting Keith Brumbaugh on this list, he’s from my hometown. Too bad he ran into trouble when he was at OSU, once he got snubbed in the McDonalds HS All-American Game, it went all downhill for him. You probably wont find too many 6’9 left handed wings with a complete offensive game like he had. Can’t blame scouts for putting him as high as they did at the time.

 

 

[C_MoneyParticipant]

By putting Keith Brumbaugh on this list, he’s from my hometown. Too bad he ran into trouble when he was at OSU, once he got snubbed in the McDonalds HS All-American Game, it went all downhill for him. You probably wont find too many 6’9 left handed wings with a complete offensive game like he had. Can’t blame scouts for putting him as high as they did at the time.

 

 

[mojoParticipant]

 pretty sure earl smith is jr smith. Not sure if I would put him in the overrated list. He has had plenty of nba success. 

[mojoParticipant]

 pretty sure earl smith is jr smith. Not sure if I would put him in the overrated list. He has had plenty of nba success. 

[mixtape2003Participant]

Some players also get more exposure with AAU than others, so guys that are NR or low maybe due to that.

[mixtape2003Participant]

Some players also get more exposure with AAU than others, so guys that are NR or low maybe due to that.

[Author]

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