Who Has More Upside Exum or LaVine?
Which guard has more upside, Dante Exum or Zach LaVine?
I believe LaVine has the higher upside. He is a freak athlete with amazing speed mixed with explosion. He's not only tall but long as well. His quickness with the ball looks elite to me. From a physical standpoint, the Westbrook comparisons are spot on for me. Even though his shooting is inconsistent, I really like his form. His natural point guard instincts arent completely there but he doesnt have to be a true point to run the point. If he learns to use his athleticism to his advantage at all times like Westbrook, then he really has the potential to be a special player.
Exum to me has very similar potential. I think he will end up being the better player, I just dont think his ceiling is quite as high as LaVines. He has more experience and natural abiility to run the point full time. He is also incredibly quick with the ball. I dont see very much explosion, but that is one of the few things separating him from LaVine. I dont like Exum's form as much as LaVines which is pretty big for me though.
Again, I think Exum's potential is incredibly high and he will ultimately be the better player, but to answer your question I think LaVine gets the edge.
I like Exum better. He appears to be a skilled passer, unlike LaVine, and I think Exum just has a superior understanding of the game. LaVine does not appear to have a high B-ball IQ and I can see him taking a lot of bad shots if he ever is given a major role on a team. Granted, I'd want to see Exum face off against tougher competition to really judge his upside, but he just appears to have a natural feel for the game that far outstrips LaVine.
I also like Exum's finishing moves at the rim better. I think in the long-run he will be a better finisher. LaVine doesn't have as great an ability to adjust in the half court.
LaVine may be a better leaper, but Exum is bigger and stronger, so I don't think LaVine necessarily has far superior physical tools. Strength and balance are often more important than leaping ability when it comes to finishing at the rim.
Exum also looks like he has PG potential, while I just don't see that with LaVine. LaVine was a poor passer by the numbers for a college SG, much less an NBA PG. Exum is unproven, too, but he doesn't have any marks against him either.
LaVine could become a later blooming version of DeMar DeRozan if given time, but that is unlikely. I expect him to be kinda like the Boston Celtics' Gerald Green. He will be always said to have potential, but that won't translate to production.
It's funny how being as athletic as Gerald Green is a negative these days. As if being that athletic makes you lazy and dumb for 7 years before putting it together.
Exum will be the safer pick because he scores better near the basket, but LaVine has the better outside shot and will be very hard to guard out there. If LaVine gets comfortable from 3 point land, the sky's the limit.
Although their perceived "upside"may be close to some of you (I am not of that belief), it is blatantly obvious if you've seen Exum play in games that the chance of him reaching his upside is way more likely than LaVine. He has a way better feel for the game; his baseball IQ is lightyears ahead of LaVine. Athletically, they are fairly similar but Exum's weakness are easily correctable with a good work ethic, while LaVine's will hamper his ability to maximize his potential.
Baseball iq has little to nothing to do with basketball
I guess you haven't watched the Spurs dismantle the Thunder...
Lmao, y u guys neggin me when the guy said baseball iq
Exum for me ,potential isn't just about physical tools IMO
Exum has more talent ,he can create his shoot with way better ball handling and is much better passer with better feel for the game ,both are quick and Lavine might be better athlete
Lavine main advantage IMO isn't his athleticism but his shooting
I don't see either guy as a PG at the next level. Exum has a better chance of playing the 1 but that's because I think it's a joke people are considering LaVine as a lead guard. LaVine might have more "upside" based off raw athleticism but Exum has a better chance of living up to his ''upside."
Tough call here. Exam seems to have a Grant Hill upside. While LaVine is so crazy athletic with good mechanics on his shot it's tough to compare him to anyone.
I'll go LaVine here. He can potentially be a freakishly good defender with his long arms and foot speed. He may be a one trick pony offensively (scoring) but it could be a hell of a trick
Athleticism is not a weakness, but it is not a guarantee of NBA stardom. Gerald Green isn't the only athletic player to struggle in the NBA. Bill Walker, James White, Terrico White, Elliot Williams, Christian Eyenga, Joe Alexander, Glen Rice Jr. and many others with comparable leaping ability to LaVine have busted. Some never even became prospects of his tier.
Gerald Green is a success story. The fact that it took him only 7 years to become successful in the NBA is a stroke of good fortune for him. He has been given many more opportunities to succeed than most players are. Most first round picks will eventually become at least decent if they are given opportunity after opportunity to succeed.
LaVine's athleticism is impressive, but his statistics are not for a guy projected to go mid-first round. In 5 games gainst teams that finished the season ranked, LaVine averaged 6.5 PPG-1.5 RPG-1 APG-1.5 TOPG on 30% shooting from the field. He shot 4-27 over his last 5 games. He shot 38% from the field in conference play, in a conference known for up-tempo offense and high scoring games.
LaVine had the luxury of playing in an uptempo offense with great PG play and boosted his stats with cherry picking and picking on lesser competition. And he still put up rather mediocre numbers and did little besides score. Their are legitimate questions about how his game will translate to the NBA. Expecting him to be the next Russell Westbrook is silly, especially since Westbrook has a combination of strenth and aggressiveness that LaVine will likely never possess.
I don't mean this post to necessarily just respond to arambone, just to the general sentiment that LaVine's athleticism gives him star potential. I see stardom as very unlikely for LaVine. I actually like GR3 better as a prospect. And GR3 was an even better leaper than LaVine at the combine.
"Gerald Green is a success story. The fact that it took him only 7 years to become successful in the NBA is a stroke of good fortune for him".
Yeah, he sure developed fast. Must be because his head was in the right place the whole time.
I'm not saying he maximized his talent, just that his athleticism and perceived "potential" helped him more than most NBA players. LaVine isn't necessarily going to bust like Gerald Green early on, but he may have some of the same issues learning to defend effectively and score efficiently in the NBA.
"Gerald Green isn't the only athletic player to struggle in the NBA. Bill Walker, James White, Terrico White, Elliot Williams, Christian Eyenga, Joe Alexander, Glen Rice Jr."
You lumped all these guys together, but Gerald Green already had a great 3 point jumper with beautiful mechanics in high school. Bill Walker never recovered his athleticism after a high school knee injury or two, and he never had a jumper like Green or even LaVine. Joe Alexander could jump, but he didn't have great agility and he didn't have any scoring skills.
There's a reason Gerald Green was compared to TMac. He didn't have the typical talent of an average first round pick.
LaVine shooting amazingly well from 3 in his first 15 or 20 games as a freshman is enough for me to see that he could be a good shooter in the NBA, and get his shot off easier than lesser athletes.
And his truly elite quickness, agility and length give him the potential to be much more than just a jump shooter.
I didn't compare him to Westbrook, but I'm not going to sleep on him either.
"LaVine shooting amazingly well from 3 in his first 15 or 20 games as a freshman is enough for me to see that he could be a good shooter in the NBA, and get his shot off easier than lesser athletes.
And his truly elite quickness, agility and length give him the potential to be much more than just a jump shooter."
Bingo. Analytics is catching up with me, and ascribiing more significance to the best games/runs of college prospects. LaVine's first 15-20 college games shooting 55% from 3 should have been the big giveaway that he was a great shooter.
Lavine has Gerald Green type athleticism but is he actually a basketball player, or just an athlete who throws down dunks in the open court and sticks a few 3pt shots?
90% of the game is played in half-court sets, so how much can he contribute during this phase of the game? Doesn't seem like a pick and roll type, nor can he post-up or drive and create for others.
He's so risky...but if he gets it all together the whole world will know his name.
Exum. More skilled, don't care if Lavine is more athletic. There are many guys with elite athleticism that aren't all that good at basketball. Not saying Lavine won't be good, but to think he has more upside just based on athleticism is a naive thought.
My thing is people saying athleticism doesn'y equal stardom, but in the NBA draft athleticism is great deciding factor.
I don't think Andrew Wiggins is a better player than Jabari Parker, but everyone puts him over Jabari because of his elite length and athleticism.
LaVine has elite length and athleticism, and he is a smooth ball handler, in today's NBA most of the point guards aren't floor generals. So he could technically be the 1 sometimes, Westbrook is the point but in his career he has never set the offense for a full game, he's had James Harden and Durant, no he has Durant even more and Reggie Jackson.
LaVine's problem is he wasn't consistent in college, maybe it's because his game wasn't mature, or maybe it's because he came off the bench and had to share the ball with at least 3 other guards.
So in the terms of "upside" I like LaVine more than Exum. Exum is a good athlete but he isn't Zach LaVine, and there's a reason Exum didn't play in college when he could have the second semester, for top international players the more mystery, the better reports, your weaknesses can't be exposed as well.
6'8" wingspan is not elite, its about average at SG.
I like both prospects but there are things you can't teach in basketball and LaVine has all of that athleticism, can handle the ball and a nice shooting stroke the only thing the a believe exum has a real advantage on him is his basketball iq which is something that can be learned...
It's worth noting that Exum has a 3" higher standing reach than LaVine, 8'7" vs 8'4". That goes a long way, especially at the pg position.
Lavine by a long shot
Higher upside: I'd go LaVine just because he has so much undeveloped skills: ball handling, passing, rebounding, shooting and decision making but what's appealing to me is that he is a tall and long point guard/shooting guard. I see a lot of Westbrook in the sense that they are both athletic freaks and both play the same spot but what's more intriguing about this guy is that he's much younger when he entered the draft and that he has enough size to slide over two either backcourt positions.
But would I take him over Exum? There's no chance in hell I will. Their basements couldn't be any further apart. Exum right now has good handles and passing ability not to mention he is best suited to play the point because of his feel for the game and IQ. Simply put, he will be a mismatch nightmare every night while LaVine is all about potential; he's not going to contribute right away for a team- he shouldn't have entered the draft in the first place. He is too raw to even compete for minutes- whoever drafts him will put in D-League.
these guys are playing at two different levels. I have read quotes in this thread talking about Exums superior passing ability , feel/iq and ability to run the point. FFS hes playing against Australian high schoolers none of whom if any will be even plying D1. which is a far cry from UCLA. In HS hes the best player on his team so the ball is in his hands all the time like how it is with most hs stars. So to be fair compare him to HS version of Lavine who ran the point. Someome said he finishes better in traffic, well in the traffic is a bit different in the PAC 10 to Oz HS. Put Lavine in the AIS and hes the man right away. Exum has decent tools the sprint time and mesurements were great. My only problem is his lack of competition/playing experience. La Vine has at least played with and against the best and has shown that he belongs imo. That my pick.
seriously imagine if he was the foreign one , with his athletic gifts and hs stats he'd be in the top 3 convo. HS is a much slower game so IQ can look great but when your going against top d1 athletes and teams the game is a lot more rushed. Not mention Laviine played with 2 more NBA players he wasn't gonna shne as bright
While the competiton that both players are performing against on a nightly basis should be noted, watching them both play to showcase their skill sets should not be overlooked either. Plus, those D-1 players aren't exactly all NBA-tier athletes either. With that said, LaVine has a lot to work on. He declared too early in my opinion. The next few years will be huge for him as he will have to show teams that he can contribute to a team and that he's not all promise. His shooting ability shows potential much like the rest of his game but it's not going to contribute right away- he's too streaky. I don't trust that he can handle the rock under pressure against NBA athletes and make good decisions with the ball in his hands just yet. On the flip side, Exum showed that he was capable of doing just that. He can run a team with poise and high level feel for the game. The international game as it is is more team oriented so for him to dominate as a one man wrecking crew speaks volumes of what he's capable of. Exum's likelihood to reach his potential is much more appealing for me compared to LaVine's higher upside. I also want to point that it's not like Exum is a stiff; he's shifty, quick and athletic to play either back court positions with a natural point guard skills.
I'm very intrigued by Exum, having said that, I would very appreciate to know where you guys saw his superior ball handling in full display against top competition. I've seen his highlights as well as a few of his fiba u-19 games, but I was wondering if there were any video out there where he was going up against top level competition comparative to the NCAA.
2013 Hoops Summit, Exum comes off the bench. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtrJ3kWJVz0
Thank you,I've actually watched that last year when it happenned. I wanted to see if there's anything more recent like the way wiggins, Parker, randle, etc had to go through the past season. If we only base off his high school, then it's like saying we should base off Parker's and co. high school performance as well and not what they did the past season
Much greater explosiveness/vertical.
At the moment I'd have to say Exum unless a lot of mock drafts have got it very wrong. Personally I see LaVine as being higher than he is on some mocks, Aran to be fair has pinned him about right. LaVine is also the sort of player that a contender might look to move up to take if he happened to fall.
Gerald Green since he came back into the NBA has looked a much better player and it was great to see him having a really good year this year.
Lavine has the better form on his shot and is the better leaper, both are very good laterally and at top speed.
havent seem exum play in a meaningful game so I can only speculate his ability as a pg. Lavine is a SG to me, reminds me of a jr smith/ Jamal Crawford type. Exum reminds me of a Shaun Livingston/Mcw type of player. Exum doesn't jump as high as either probably but his length, quickness, size remind me of them. I guess I would say exum has more upside as a potential lead guard who is a mismatch and gets his teammates involved while scoring solidly and playing solid defense.