What I missed on T.J. Warren?
Guys tell me why Warren isn't a lottery pick or even close to it??
I haven't been familiar with his play..now i'm checking some his full game highlights with the stats of 23ppg on 52% fg and all I can see a really talented prospect..
Well if you look at the rest of his stat line you will see he shoots less than 30% from 3 and averages less than 1 assist per game. He can score and might be able find a nice niche in the NBA but he doesn't have enough all around game to warrant being a lottery pick. He is not too far out of the lottery and I expect him to go 18-25.
sewok15 said it best. he is a 1st rounder right now but doesnt have the all around game to be a lottery pick. He is definitely behind Hood and Anderson right now but could go ahead of McDermott. he shot 50% from 3 last year but only on a 3rd of the attempts as he has had this year. his long range game will come, he has forced up some 3's and shoots off balance a lot. once he improves his mechanics he will be a better shooter. he is a decent offensive rebounder and racks up the steals. his floater is absolutely money.
on the flip side, he is not very athletic or quick. really has to work on his defense but will always be somewhat limited. although his scoring IQ is sky high he cant really create his own shot. this is due in large part to his lack of a great handle.
basically he is a guy that has a nose for the ball and putting in in the basket. weak on the defensive side and on the defensive boards. right now he is kinda like a poor man's Pierce. Warren is the 5th best SF in the country at worst unless you rank Kyle Anderson as a SF...then Warren would be the 6th.
warren is a terrific offensive rebounder he leads the acc and is high up there in the country i think he averages 3+ and i agree about him shooting off balance from 3 he is shooting like 50% from three since the maryland game
i agree with everyone above. needs to work on his jumper to add some versatility to his offense. plays a lot of 4 in college which gives him an advantage against slower guys. he won't be able to do that in the nba.
he rarely plays 4? and he is very versital on offense thats why he is a good prospect he can score from anywhere and not just rely on one skill set
It's somewhat hard to diversify your gane when your team depends so much on your scoring just to be competitive
My question is this:
Is he any different than Morris Almond who played at Rice? Almost identical type of player
Exceptional scorer, and not a whole lot of anything else
he has more size than almond and produces against a better competition. i think almond was more of a pure shooter that was misinterpreted as a good all-around scorer. foot speed and athleticism was about the same but i don't think almond had the size to play sf whereas warren has legit sf size. almond couldn't hang defensively against nba sg's.
All he does is shoot...and as noted above, he isn't even a decent college 3 point shooter. There aren't tons of spots in the league for guys who can only score, and aren't even efficient enough to do it at a high rate in the NBA.
Efficiency is not a problem for Warren, he's not a great 3 point or foul shooter, but he's really efficient from 2 point so he kinda makes up for it. The problem is he scores a lot on cuts, post ups, fast break opportunities, offensive rebounds and weird close to the rim shots. He's not a great shooter and he doesn't create offense off the bounce, and he's just an average athlete. How does this translate on the next level? But you can't ignore his college production. I think he's kinda similar to Josh Howard (when he was a collegiate) in that regard, though Howard was a better athlete and developed his shot in his last season. Also when Howard came into the league the game was different, no handchecking stuff, a lot more iso-s, post ups, no Thibs-esque defensive systems and shooting wasn't nearly as important as it is nowadays. Wings without a jumper usually struggle. I still think Warren could find his niche, because he has potential on D, but his ceiling his somehow capped and that's the reason he's not considered a lock for the lottery even if he's scoring at an amazing rate. Obviousy he might well end up being a better player than many guys drafted ahead of him, but scouts think in terms of potential and upside and Warren isn't as appealing as others.
Which might be a little short sighted because he is only a sophomore. Far from a complete product but already a lethal scorer. Someone brought up Almond, which is not fair since Morris was average all of 7 points in his soph season.
Well he's a bit old for a soph if you put it that way, but I think age and class are a bit overrated when it comes to upside. Of course age is important, but being young doesn't necessarily mean bigger potential, I think it's also important to see what kind of game a prospect has, how good his body and athleticism are and what he's likely to add to his game. Warren is basically a 4 in college, without great shooting ability and with average athleticism. As you can see from the highlights clip posted here, most of his points comes from cuts, fast break attempts, second chances after offensive rebounds. He doesn't have great ball skills, his drives are pretty much straight line drives and he's not one who creates his own shot off the bounce. So he could be even 18, but I don't see where the potential lies. Of course he can still improve, but lack of athleticism, ball handling and shooting ability lower his ceiling as a small forward. That being said, if it was up to me I'd draft him over a guy like Jerami Grant without thinking about it twice, but I see why most of the boards have him in the 12-22 range.
warren is most deffinatly a 3 in college and he scores form anywhere he always takes the best shot he can get
Nope, he's the nominal 3 in the starting lineup, but plays tons of minutes at 4 to take advantage of mismatch against slower 4s. He's most effective in the last 15-18 feet and scores a lot in the paint on cuts and offensive rebounds.
His RSB40 doesn't indicate he will be held back by his athleticism in the NBA. There is explosive athleticsim, and there is functional athleticism, Warren has the latter.
First of all, I think only one guy really uses RSB40 to evaluate prospects, that guy who claimed he had foreseen Jeremy Lin's potential. And by the way he uses it only for PGs and sometimes for SGs, so I don't think it does matter for Warren. Also, while it's true that there's a correlation between a low RSB40 value and Nba failure (but with some relevant exceptions), it's not true for the opposite, a high RSB40 doesn't necessarily translate in success.
But first and foremost, I didn't write Warren is a terrible athlete and he's not going to make it in the Nba. I only wrote that he's not an elite athlete, he's pretty averag and that caps his ceiling. It doesn't mean athleticism or lack of thereof is going to hold him back, it just means his upside might not be as high as that of other prospects and that's the reason he's projected to go "only" in the 12-22 range despite his great season and terrific production.
Warren just hung 41 on the road against a solid Pitt defense.
His 3 numbers aren't good but he was dropping daggers tonight with a hand in his face. Hopefully the highlights will be on Youtube so we can all take a gander. Just saw what he did on Sportscenter and was blown away.
Feast your eyes and fantasize.
remember Deshaun Thomas!