What is the faire price for a starting quality PG ?
With all those discussion around B.Jennings (evidence that we are in a VERY quiet period) and his trade to the pistons, I wanted to talk about salaries and value of PG. We all know decent centers are rare so overpaid. But what can we say about PG ?
I decided not to mention rookie contracts (rubio, lillard, walker, mcw, burke...).
Here is a list of all the best pg in the league (most of them starters) with what is left on their contracts (year by year). Some are "gifts" from last CBA, some not really... :
rose 17.6M 18.8M 20M 21.3M
paul 18.6M 20.1M 21.5M 22.8M 24.2M
westbrook 14.7M 15.7M 16.7M 17.7M
williams 18.5M 19.7M 21M
parker 12.5M 12.5M
rondo 11.9M / 12.9M
All those players have better contracts. Rondo and parker are underpaid, williams is overpaid. But all in all they are all better pg for their teams and don't play in the same galaxy.
nash 9.3M 9.7M
felton 3.6M 3.8M 3.9M
Nash is better paid and the other have worse or equal contracts but don't answer the same need for their team. They are all in the last years of their careers or contracts.
It seems more interesting to focus on the other starting pg of the league to compare them to jennings new one :
curry 9.9M 10.6 11.4M 12.1M
holiday 9.7M 10.4M 11.1M 11.8M
lawson 10.8M 11.6M 12.4M 13.2M
conley 8.6M 9.3M 10M
Here is jennings contract : jennings 7.7M 8M 8.4M
The question is would you rather have jennings (sports and money point of view) or one of them ?
The answer is simple for Curry, lawson, conley or even holiday who seems to be an overall better player and prospect. They all have better contracts (slighty) but brings just more on the court.
jack 6.3M 6.3M 6.3M
calderon 6.8M 7.1M 7.4M 7.7M
dragic 7.5M 7.5M 7.5M
lin 8.3M 8.3M
hill 8M 8M 8M 8M
teague 8M 8M 8M 8M
It's a little bit more complicated for the other ones. But...
I'd rather take hill or teague than jennings : less skills but better overall attitude (and surely more W). I also would rather take jack or calderon (even if they are older and with longer contracts) who bring you more chemistry, more W and develop your young big men. I'm more confident on Dragic to run a team and he has better PO experience.
What would be your choice in this last list ? For me Jennings new contract is not a bargain and is very comparabale to Lin's one (which was heavily criticized). I think Jennings should be hard to trade (if it doesn't work in detroit) with this contract if you compare him to other PG' contracts. What is your thought ?
I had to read this about 4 times to figure out what you were trying to say but I got there. Yeh Curry, Holliday, Conley and Lawson all have very team friendly contracts. I would take Jennings over all the guys in your final list. I think Jennings has gone to underrated on this site as everyone here hates anyone who has been pegged a 'chucker.' Who were he and Monta Ellis meant to pass the ball to last year for a good shot? Getting Jennings for 8 mil a year is an excellent deal if you ask me and now he is with a more talented team I expect his efficiency to improve.
He still averaged 17.5 and 6.5 last year while leading his team to the playoffs.
And you would really take Hill over Jennings? Pretty much identical contracts and if Dumars rang Kevin Pritchard and offered Jennings for Hill Pritchard would take it in a heartbeat.
well my question is who would you rather have in your roster, how can you describe jennings contract, what is the faire price for a pg like jennings... your opinion on pg contracts.
what you said about pritchard is surprising for me... I'm not sure at all pritchard would accept jeenings for hill. I'm almost pretty certain he would not even think of that.
I think you undervalue the notion of team chemistry and overrate stats. Of course Jennings can put some stats in an average bucks team but what about Wins in PO. Hill is a steadier player, team first, so much better in D than jennings.
I never liked Jennings who is an "individual first / team second" minded player. Finally his influence on his team game is very limited when you compare him to a pg like hill (or even rubio) with less stats but a better overall feel for the game and for his team needs to win at the end.
Who was Jennings supposed to pass to with the Bucks? Doesn't having the worst shooting percentage on the team* kinda invalidate that argument? If you're just going to miss shots, why not let Ilyasova or Dunleavy miss them. At least then everyone is getting involved.
*Okay he shot better than Marquis Daniels and some guys who barely played
I think 8 million is the exact value of branden jennings and having chauncy billups there should help him mature, he never really had a smart experienced player to learn from like billups and now he hopefully is motivated to prove he should have got more money
as every player who wants to prove he should have been drafted higher or got a better contract, his contract could give him another motivation. And billups presence could be benefic.
BUT don't underestimate Billups will to start AND play PG. He recently explained that he didn't like his short clipper stint cause he was not able to play enough minutes at the point (his real position). He decided to sign with knight as a "rival" for his position and now he's facing a new acquired extended young pg... I don't think he sees himself as the big brother who will help and don't play. He knows he doesn't have lots of years left in his legs and I think he wants to play NOW.
good point, the success of branden jennings will have to do with if billups can accept being a staring 2 guard and play 15 minutes a game at point guard while also mentoring branden jennings and the rest of the young guys or if billups views jennings as competition and doesnt try to help him
Cool post. +1 for sure. You did a great job pointing out how there are tiers of PGs who are well represented by their pay-scale. It's hard to say whether Jennings contract will live up to the Lowry/Jack tier that you've distinguished. He's young and needed a new scenery. IMO he's not what the Pistons need, as I have articulated in previous posts. After looking at the other players like Calderon, Dragic, Hill, Teague, Lowry and Jack they just seem like better fits because of their game management skills. Then again Jennings is younger and developing. So I may prove to be wrong.
And in a league where people get overpaid on the regular, Jennings actually got paid a reasonable sum.
if I had to pick one player to take on their current contract it would be Curry
Brandon Jennings has talent. Now he has more talent around him plus Billups as a tutor. I think he will be worth the money. Not sure he will be the Pistons' next Isiah Thomas but he should be good for them.
It takes point guards a while to put it all together, so I still think he has potential. He needs to run, gun, and drive, and the Pistons are set up pretty good for him. Some chuckers on the team, but they also have KCP and Kyle Singler to make jumpers.
He did lead the Bucks to the playoffs a couple seasons. So its not like teams can't win with Jennings as their pg. If anything he's proved that he can help his team win games and at a very young age as well.
Jennings is moving to an entirely different situation in Detroit. Yeah he was an inefficient player in Milwaukee, but that team didn't have a lot of options on offense.
He was put into a role where he had to score and it was clearly too much responsibility for him in that situation with that Bucks team.
All i'm trying to say is it's hard to tell if B Jennings is truly an inefficient chucker because his role in Milwaukee was too much for him to handle. Detroit will be a whole different situation where he won't have as much responsibility and should get better looks created by his teammates.
Only time will tell, but I think the size of the contract is valid and he will fit in nicely with the Pistons.
I would probably take Teague from that last list but thats probably it. Jennings is a solid young pg and still has potentiial so he would be my next pick.