The Upside And Potential Of Perry Jones ( Updated Version )
It's frustrating to watch a player with so much talent, struggle to utilize his massive ability in ways that allows him to consistently dominate games, and Perry Jones represents that truth in many ways. He's extremely talented, with a variety of skills and unbelievable physical ability, but for some reason, struggles to utilize his great ability in ways that allows him to play at a very high level on a consistent basis. In my opinion Perry Jones is the most talented NBA prospect in this year’s NBA draft, and possesses the upside to be the best player in this year’s draft if he develops properly and finds a way to utilize his great talent and ability in an efficient matter. When you compare him to Anthony Davis, Perry jones is actually bigger, more skilled, and possesses better all-around athletic ability, but Anthony Davis knows how to utilize his great talent and ability in ways that allows him to consistently dominate games at the college level, which is why Anthony Davis will be the number one pick in the draft.
My opinion of Perry Jones weaknesses and strengths:
- His athleticism is simply off the charts and gives him the opportunity to develop into a special player once he learns how to combine his athleticism with a high skill level, a high basketball IQ, and maximum effort on every play. It's really only a handful of players that can compete with his athleticism at the NBA Level
- His all-around offensive skill set shows a lot of potential. He's a good decision maker who plays patiently with-in the coaches offensive scheme, he's very unselfish and is always willing to make the needed and extra pass, he challenges himself to play mistake free basketball and rarely turns the ball over. He moves very well with-out the ball, flashes to open spots on the floor, and always makes himself a very reliable target to finish plays when he receives passes from teammates ( alley-oops, backdoor cuts, pick and pop situations, etc. ) His ball handling skills is very very underrated, and he has the ability to handle the ball similar to a Lamar Odom or Scottie Pippen. And I personally think with more experience and development he has the ability to develop into a point forward type of player similar to a Lamar Odom and Scottie Pippen. His freshman year at Baylor, he actually played some back-up point guard, when baylor's back-up point guard was injured, and he looked very impressive handling the ball, running the offense, and creating offense for others. I like the fact that when needed he utilizes basic dribble skills very well. He keeps things very simple, stays very low on his drives, and will utilize a simple spin move, behind back dribble, crossover dribble between the legs, retreat dribble skill, in & out crossover, change of pace dribble, change of direction dribble, hesitation dribble, etc. It's a very underutilized part of his game, because at Baylor they asked him to play more in the paint as a Power Forward or Center, but when he wants to or needs to. He does a great job of combining his great foot speed and quickness with very simple dribbling skills that allow him to create space on the perimeter with ease. His post-up game has the potential to be nasty when you combine his size, length, athleticism, with his footwork when posting up. Because he has the length, size and the athleticism to shoot over anyone in the post, can face-up and utilize his first-step to get by anyone, and is starting to develop a variety of post moves that will make him hard too guard when posting up defenders in the future. He can utilize great touch when finishing plays around the rim and is developing go-to moves with his fade away and baby hook shot. He also has the potential to develop into a very good shooter, because he already uses very good shooting mechanics right know. He shoots a high arching shot, he gets very good jumping elevation on his jump shoot, he shoot's the ball with his elbow in, he uses a high release point when shooting, he shoot's on the way up, and he utilizes a smooth shooting motion and quick release when shooting. As a finisher he has great touch, he has the ability to utilize his size and athleticism to finish shots way above the rim and he utilizes the tear drop lay-up very very well and from any angle
- He's too unselfish, I question his mental and physical toughness, he does not do enough when his team needs him the most, he struggles playing against physical contact which decreases his ability as a finisher and rebounder. Because he can be pushed out of position easily and struggles to maintain his balance against physical contact. He also at this point of his career does not know how to utilize his great talent and ability in ways that allows him to dominate games on a consistent basis. He also played out of position at Baylor where he was asked to play more like a power forward or center, where the skills that he possesses is geared more to playing more like a versatile small forward who can play power forward at times based on the match-up
- I love his potential and upside and think he will be a great player with patience and development. I personally watched guys like Joe Johnson, T-mac, Jamaal Crawford, Rashard Lewis, and Rudy Gaye struggle early in their careers with consistency. But overtime because they were so talented and blessed with a lot ability. They naturally developed into very good players overtime because of their work ethic and desire to be better players. For some reason, I think the same thing will happen to Perry jones. Because even though he might struggle with consistency early on, once he develops more confidence in his all-around abilities and works on maximizing and utilizing the necessary skills that will allow him to consistently play at a very high level. It's no doubt in my mind that he will develop into a special player in the future because of the great talent and ability that he possesses.
My NBA Comparisons: He has a skill set that is very similar to a young Lamar Odom and young Rashard Lewis with the athleticism of Rudy Gaye and Tyrus Thomas
Draft stock of Baylor's Perry Jones III hinges on proving his consistency
SANTA BARBARA, Calif. – Perry Jones III is hoping he can convince NBA teams to forget the old Perry Jones III before the draft.
There may not have been a college basketball player last season, including Kentucky's heralded big man Anthony Davis, who had a better combination of skills, athleticism, versatility and size than the Baylor University forward. Jones, who is 6-foot-11, 235 pounds, can dribble, shoot from long range, post up, pass and rebound. He can play small forward, power forward and even some shooting guard. That Jones didn't show up for the Bears on a nightly basis, the main reason why he is projected as a top-10 pick and not top overall. Baylor's Perry Jones III showed off his strengths and weaknesses in the NCAA tournament. (Getty Images)
"I don't like that guy. I don't. I don't," Jones told Yahoo! Sports after a workout at Peak Performance Project here this week. "That guy from last season didn't do too well. He didn't do too well at all. I feel like I got a lot to prove. I got a lot of expectations. I want to be successful.
"I want to be an All-Star at the end of the day. Not just be a player who plays a couple of years or a could've been, should've been. I want to be an All-Star."
One prominent NBA agent said Jones' inconsistency cost him a chance to compete for the top spot in this draft and he likely will go no earlier than seventh. Former long-time Los Angeles Lakers assistant coach Rasheed Hazzard, who is working out Jones, said he reminds him of a more athletic Lamar Odom.
Jones lived up to his initial hype as the most heralded recruit in Baylor men's basketball history by averaging 13.9 points and 7.2 rebounds as a freshman and was named a USBWA Freshman All-American. NCAA investigators, however, ruled him ineligible for receiving improper benefits before enrolling at Baylor. As part of his punishment he was sidelined for a loss to Oklahoma in the 2011 Big 12 tournament that ended the school's chances at an NCAA berth.
He could've challenged Duke's Kyrie Irving for the top selection in the 2011 NBA draft had he entered. In hopes of redeeming himself from the suspension that also included five games this past season, Jones returned to Baylor for his sophomore year.
"Kyrie Irving did his thing," Jones said. "He did it all in the couple of games that he played [for Duke] playing point guard. But it would have been real tough [to be the No. 1 draft pick]. But now I think I'm a lot better than I was last year."
The respect for Jones was strong entering last season: He was named the 2011-12 Preseason Big 12 Player of the Year and was an early national player of the year candidate. But he underachieved, averaging only 10 points in four NCAA tournament games, including a two-point performance against South Dakota State. Staying true to form, he showed his talent against eventual national champion Kentucky in an Elite Eight matchup, scoring 17 points. Baylor's Perry Jones III went toe-to-toe with UK's Anthony Davis in an Elite Eight matchup. (AP)
Another snapshot of his inconsistency: He had four points in his first game against Kansas State in Big 12 play and a season-high 31 in the second meeting.
"I felt that I didn't have to be a person scoring all the time because I had more scorers out there and more talent than my freshman year," Jones said. "I felt like I didn't have to have all the weight on my shoulders. Now, it shouldn't matter who is on my team or what everyone else can do. I have to do what I know I can do on any given night. That's how you become a great player."
Jones got his first chance to change perceptions in front of about 70 NBA personnel officials, including nine general managers, in a workout in Santa Barbara on Thursday.
"He was impressive with his athletic abilities," one GM said. "It's obvious he will have more success as a wing player than an inside player. He had a good workout."
Said one assistant GM: "There is going to be a point in the first round where someone is going to say, 'I'm nervous about him, but he by far is the best talent.' "
Great Examples Tape Of Perry Jones Talent & Ability
By Marc J. Spears | Yahoo! Sports – Fri, May 25, 2012 4:15 PM EDT
Yes, he is a very smooth athlete. But Lamar Odom was basically a point forward with much more court vision. Not to mention, he could always at least do some work on the glass. Rashard Lewis was a much better shooter than Jones III. Lewis has shot 38.8% from three for his career. When Chad Ford tells me Perry Jones shoots 7/15 against no one, it does not exactly lead me to believe he is a knock down marksman.
Jones III obviously has some upside and intriguing physical characteristics. I am not saying he is not talented, because he shows flashes. Even know he is a decent passer. But, Lamar Odom? That guy was compared to Magic Johnson, he had a much stronger handle and was much better at setting up his team mates. I know Rashard was not always a knock down shooter in the NBA, but his stroke was much smoother than Jones III. Not to mention, would be very surprised if he put up athletic numbers of Tyrus or Rudy Gay.
Like most players you listed, he is probably at best as a complimentary piece. Just think he will have trouble defending wings, but he may have more potential at that than covering bigs. I know the kid is talented and I realize Baylor did not exactly play to his strengths, but I have a tough time seeing Paul George or any of the players generally listed as comparisons to Jones III. He is a tweener with size, but I have no clue about throwing him out on the permiter and thinking everything will work itself out.
I think for Jones it all matters what team he ends up on.
Tim Thomas 2.0
i remember i think j-nixon saying or sumthin else compared rudy gay coming out of uncon and perry coming out of baylor.... that rudy was mentioned to be a superstar caliber player but now we know rudy likely isnt going to be.... but hes still very good player..... and if jones doesnt ever maximize his talents and ends up still being very good one day... then thats okay.... which i agree with...... perry jones isnt likely to be a superstar one day..... he can be very good tho
Rudy was a rae case. The lightbulb actually clicked in his head. That's more rare than you think. And even still that lightbulb fades out.
The problem is that he just doesn't get it done on the court. Let's look at Defense. The guy is 6 11 and he averaged 0.6 blocks per game!!! With his hops!! Short point guards average more blocks than that. He also averaged 0.8 steals per game. Where is the disruption and passing lane thefts? So no motor or anticipation, but at least he should be hard to score on one on one with his length which is nice.
Then on offense, if he is too skinny and weak to esablish deap post position, then he will probably play on the wing at the SF position. But what is he going to do there? He doesn't use the three in college. Will Perry be able to knock it down from NBA range? He has a handle and speed, but will it be enough to get by defenders and all the way to the rim? If Perry is just pulling up from 20 feet and shooting jumpers, even if he can get them off against shorter SFs, then he isn't going to score effectively.
There should definitely be some teams that believe in the "show me basketball production" theory of drafting that would not touch this guy in the first round. A combined 1.4 block/steals per game from a front court player is an indicator you will not be able to play defense at the NBA level. (To put in perspective, Blake Griffin averaged a little over 2 block/steals in college and that correctly predicted that he would not be a good defender in the NBA, but those numbers are light-years ahead of Perry's). But another team will look at the size and jumping ability and say that is good enough for me. I can't wait to find out how he does.
Perry is great in an empty gym, very few 6'11'' guys can handle like him or have the skillset he does. That being said, the only time he looked like a 3 in college is when he was being guarded by a center. IF he plays the 3 in the NBA he'll be guarded by quicker guys who are 6'7''-6'9'' and I don't think he'll have near the success he did taking slow 6'9'' college post players off the dribble.
I've said for the entire year I think he could be a nice stretch 4 who can give you 10 points and 5 rebounds in a variety of ways, but he wasn't a #1 option in college, he certainly won't be in the NBA. His jumper isn't refined enough for him to be a reliable pick and pop option as a rookie, but I think he'll be really nice on the roll. With some work on his mid range jumper, I think he'll always have a job in the league, but not as a star or superstar player. I think he's a future 6th man/occasional starter, but I think he is worth a gamble as high as #8 or #9 because he does have potential, and I don't see his floor being as low as many think. I don't think he'll be a bust, but if you expect him to be T-Mac 2.0 you'll be very very very sad.
he fades away wayyyy to much. I think he should watch a lot of tape on Amare Stoudemire when he was young. Obviously he will never become that style of player, but PJ3 needs to learn how to roll to the basket without the ball. That's what his problem was, he was never at floor spots that gave him the biggest chance at producing.
The thing about Jones is a lot of people like to critisize him on this board but, I believe a lot of people would secretly be happy if he ended up on there team, because he has a lot of potential and Intrigue to him.
If he had the heart of the champion, he would be without a doubt the top pick. Heart is a lot of times the most important attribute. It's the one thing he has yet to show. Not sure he will ever have the heart of a champion, but to show more of that killer instinct, I believe he needs the type of motivating "kick in the ass" type of coach to reach his potential. Kind of like what Mike Singletary did to Vernon Davis in the NFL. Perry Jone's talent is really that crazy good. I'd personally like to see him play the 3 spot over the 4 too.
Was that Vernon Davis had every physical characteristic you would want in a TE, plus the athleticism. Perry Jones III has size and athleticism that are ideal, but I found he was easily pushed around by stronger players. In the NBA, he is going to be going up against guys who are quite a bit stronger than many he faced in college, at either the 3 or the 4. Can you imagine Perry Jones III guarding Carmelo Anthony or LeBron James? I mean, no one really can, but I just feel he would be eaten alive by players of that kind of build.
SF is one of the positions in the league with the least depth. Only 16 players labelled as 3's scored over 12 ppg in 2011-12. Still, you look through those names and notice that many rely on skills that I did not really see Perry Jones III display on a consistent basis.
I do not dislike Perry Jones, I would love to see a prospect at the level of some of the players he is compared to. He is definitely intriguing due to his athleticism and ideal length. He seems to fit the prototype, hell he is even listed at 235. Whatever those numbers say, when I watched him face stronger players, I saw very little resistance.
I would see those couple possessions of a 6'11 player running the break like a gazelle. But, much like an actual gazelle, he may look spectacular when he is running and jumping. The thing is, mostly gazelle's just stand there and do not do very much. I guess being an awesome athlete is taxing, not to mention they may not have incredible endurance. Either way, Perry Jones III sent me to that analogy, lol.
Still a proponent for taking him in the lottery. Maybe even top 10. He certainly has characteristics of being a solid rotation player who could cause match-up issues at times. The thing is, Nick Collison is an example of what you would expect from a guy who is picked 12. As a matter of fact, Nick has averaged 7.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg and 0.9 apg (14.1 total). The average for 12th picks from 1989-2008 was 6.6, 3.7 and 1.3 (11.6 total). Nick's career may cause his averages to slip a bit, but for those who think Nick Collison is a scrub or not what you would want in a lottery pick, he turned out to be a pretty damn solid value pick at 12 (ask Cherokee Parks, Aleks Radojevic, Yaro Korolev, Melvin Ely and, well, the list is certainly not fascinating).
I have posted this many times before, but I think it is a decent summation of what to expect in whom you are picking. Yes, it does not take a lot to average over 20 points/rebounds/assists (the "star" prerequisite is 20, and for instance Tayshaun Prince has averaged 20.3 in those three categories combined up until this point). But, if you do, chances are you are a pretty solid player. The best chances of landing one seems to be in a top 5 pick. So, if you see Perry Jones III putting up 13, 6 and 2 (certainly attainable goal averages) over the next 6-7 seasons on average, than you might want to risk a top 5 selection on him.
To me, I probably would not with some players I see as being more impactful as overall basketball players in this draft. However, I could see Perry being in the "solid" category (15-19.9 combined points, rebounds assists) and might think about taking the lotto plunge. My biggest problem is, I do not envision him as a Paul George or a Tim Thomas. Simply think both were more skilled shooters and brought a little more fire to the table (yes, even Tim Thomas who I believe was a much more talented offensive prospect).
The easiest (and laziest) comparison I have seen for Jones is of course, Anthony Randolph ('s potential). Again, Anthony Randolph had all of those same physical characteristics and intriguing skill set that have so many people high on PJ3. Jones is the better athlete, but I think Randolph was a better defender and rebounder. This, my friends, is kind of scary. Now, Perry may be a little better at stretching the floor, but we all know Anthony Randolph never turned out to be the player many were hoping for.
Randolph has technically exceeded expectations one might have had for a 14th pick in his brief career, with averages of 8.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg and 0.8 apg (more than Collison, but wait, there's more). If people were to talk about Randolph, he was the steal of the draft. He was worth SO much more than the 14th selection, what were those other teams thinking? This kid could dribble, dunk and school the Lopez's silly one on one (youtube it). The issue is, where did he fit in? Who does he guard? Plus, are you winning when you give him a role.
Randolph is 22 years old, his best years could still be ahead of him (let's hope they are). But, his early returns do not exactly give you a great deal of optimism. He has played in 170 games (42.5 per year, not stating anything about Perry Jones durability, just pointing to another 6'11 dude with a similar skill set and "monster" potential) and the kicker is, his team is 53-117 in those games. Yikes. He was not drafted or traded for to turn teams around. He didn't. The thing is, does this make the once seeming value pick maybe that much less valuable? By the way, the 14th pick on average has a combined 13.7 total of ppg/rpg/apg. So, Randolph has not necessarily been awful, just not even close to as great as many expected with little hope for him to live up to, Anthony Randolph's potential.
Perry Jones III is not Anthony Randolph, but he also is not Lamar Odom, Rudy Gay (who was a much more talented athlete and natural player with a position), Rashard Lewis, Tyrus Thomas (who blocked shots and rebounded, granted could do much less offensively than Jones can at a similar stage) and for heavens sake not Tracy McGrady. Paul George? I just do not see it and am surprised (as in, not surprised) that Chad Ford is hype beasting one of the leagues up and coming stars drafted too low to a player people are not sold on.
Chad Ford knows his stuff and has great contacts. He gets more information on this process (that he is willing to share for a small fee) than anyone out there. My issue with Chad is, he tends to let GM's make decisions for him rather than giving more of his own outlook. I mean, in the article he wrote about Perry he did not even say whether he was high on him or not. It was kind of a cop out. This is how he explained his view of whether he was in the camp that loved or feared Perry Jones:
I wish I could tell you which camp I'm in. Both seem right, paradoxically.
Now, I absolutely see where he is coming from and how difficult it is for anyone to get a great read on where Perry Jones will fit in. I just wish he would have said, "this is what I think" rather than saying both camps are right. His rankings appear to do the talking, as he has him #7 right now. Can't say I would have him much lower, but I do not think I can really justify having him higher. To me, 7 looks like his ceiling right now barring new unforeseen flashes or information. It could happen, 6'11 guys with his athleticism do not grow on trees. They also do not magically play SF and show skills that they rarely seemed to produce at the college level. Improvement happens, but the improvement people are hoping for in Jones is pretty damn radical in the perspective that he has shown so little of it in games.
ive always thought that perry jones is a four at the next level..... hes simply not a 3
Garnett is 7'1 seriously. He wont be as good as KG. PJ3 will get stronger on NBA weight program. I think his J will surprise people. Would be well served playing up tempo with a fast dishing PG.
I think its very unfair to compare a prospect to a player in the NBA. I think you should compare the prospect to a NBA player when he was coming out of college cuz there is a natural decline in production with a players stats from college to the NBA. I think any example of Lamar Odom is a fallacy. Odom was pretty much a PG at Rhode Island with the amount of time he had the ball in his hands. Odom pretty much dominated the NCAA. Rudy Gay put up good stats on an underacheiving UConn team but Gay did win freshmen of the year and was a finalist for best college player though he had a passive nature...which he has sort of shed.Thing is, to compare a college prospect to Lamar Odom or Rudy Gay just doesnt match cuz those two had much better careers in college showing an already established resume coming into the league. I think Tyrus Thomas or Anthony Randolph as a college prospect is more fair to compare since both were freak athletes but didnt dominate. I find it hard to believe that a player that was in college for two years that struggled so much will be able to be AllStar level player. I think he can start and be a decent role player cuz he can run the break and is 6'11'' tho and that is decent and he will probably be in the NBA for 10 years. It isnt a bust but it isnt an AllStar
The other thing you have to worry about PJ3 converting to the SF is that as JoeWolf said, he only showed ability to dribble against slower guys. Will he be able to get past Iguodala? probably not. Kawhi Leonard? probably not. LeBron James? no. Rudy Gay? I dont think so. PJ3 will probably be a guy that gets his points in transition and spot up 3s if he does convert to a SF. The thing is, his transition game better be the ish cuz then he will be labeled soft for just shooting 3s. He could be a Rashard Lewis type (cuz he didnt play college) if PJ3 also learns from a good 3pt shooter much like Lewis did with Ray Allen but I think Tyrus Thomas/Anthony Randolph is the best case comparison
who compared PJ3 to KG?
Once PJ3 looks into KGs eyes the first time he sees him, PJ3 is going to ask "why is he making those looks with his eyes?" the coach is going to say, "thats what intensity looks like"