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TomShoeSo, it turns out "Mr. PER" John Hollinger is putting up his updated player profiles for this year. I know many people want to look at them, but ESPN can be a real B- when they’re putting up paywalls and shoving the benefits of insider in your face every other article. So, for sh*ts and giggles, also because I’m pulling my hair out waiting for either Oct. 5 (Start of the preseason), or Oct. 30 (start of the regular season), I might as well post them here, for nbadraft.net and the whole internet to enjoy.
This is the last playoff team of the profiles, we’ll be getting to the good stuff Monday. Speaking of Jazz, I heard Millsap and Favors were in a camp battle. Should just trade Al and Millsap to get a decent PG. Or just give Alec Burks more PT :/ Anyway, Jazz up, Rockets tomorrow, and the best offense-no defense combo since StoudeMelo, the Bucks, coming Tuesday.
Enjoy.
-TomShoe
PROJECTED STARTERS
MO WILLIAMS, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 18.3 2.6 4.3 14.6 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Score-first combo guard who likes midrange jumpers off dribble. Quick release.
+ Good 3-point shooter off catch. Rarely gets to rim or draws fouls.
+ Average athlete and defender, especially versus quick guards. Great foul shooter.Analysis
With a switch to an off-the-ball, sixth-man shooting specialist, Williams rebounded from a disappointing 2010-11 to rank in the top third of shooting guards as a scorer and just above the position average in true shooting percentage. His assists took a dip, obviously, since he wasn’t playing the point much, but he had a strong pure point rating for a wing. He’ll be back to more of a point guard role in Utah, but he’ll mostly be spotting up to shoot off the catch — much as he did for the Clippers.The midrange J was his bread-and-butter again, as he hit 41.5 percent of his long 2s on five tries a game, but he also shot 38.9 percent on 3s. The main concern is that he stopped getting to the rim. Williams’ free throw rate was nearly halved from the previous season — unfortunate given that he rarely misses once he gets there — and he had only 73 shots at the rim all season.
Defensively, Williams was a liability. He often cross-matched with Eric Bledsoe, which provided some relief, but he’s not much better at guarding 1s than he is at checking 2s. Moreover, any pairing with Chris Paul was pretty much flammable because Williams had to defend much bigger shooting guards. The Clippers gave up 5.1 points per 100 possessions more with Williams on the court, and his Synergy rating was subpar as well. This will be less of a concern as a full-time point guard, but Williams is a minus at either guard spot.
GORDON HAYWARD, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 16.8 4.5 4.3 15.9 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Big, athletic wing who can attack rim and finish. Draws lots of fouls.
+ Average shooter and ball handler but a good passer. Left hand needs work.
+ Suspect defender, especially at the 2, but also needs work on post defense.Analysis
After a rocky rookie season, Hayward was one of the league’s most improved players in 2011-12 and seems poised to be a long-term solution on the wings for Utah. The one caveat is that he still seems to be much better suited to small forward than shooting guard, where he played most of his minutes a season ago and likely will again this season.Hayward is just passable as a ball handler and still has a maddening habit of picking up his dribble after not going anyplace in particular. When he plays more aggressively he’s very good, especially going to the basket — he ranked fifth among shooting guards in free throw rate and made 83.2 percent, plus he shot 64.9 percent at the rim. From outside, however, he’s barely adequate, making 39.4 percent of his long 2s and 34.6 percent of his 3s. Since he’s only 22 and his form is solid, one suspects these numbers will improve.
Hayward also sees the floor well, ranking sixth among shooting guards in assist ratio, but what needs more work is the subtle stuff. He needs a better left hand, for instance, and he needs to develop some one-handed finishes — Hayward always goes up with two hands on the ball, which tends to leave him putting the ball in harm’s way and relying entirely on outjumping the defender.
It’s a similar story defensively. Hayward is big and can jump — he was seventh among shooting guards in blocks per minute — but his overall defense needs considerable work. Synergy rated him the 10th-worst defender in the league with at least 200 plays defended, and while that’s probably an exaggeration, the Jazz did defend better when he was off the court. Again, it would help if he could play the 3 rather than chase quicker 2s around, but even at the 3 he needs work on his post defense.
MARVIN WILLIAMS, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 15.2 7.5 1.9 15.2 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Passive combo forward with good midrange shot. Excellent finisher in transition.
+ Long-armed wing defender who needs to add strength. Can play 4 in a pinch.
+ Decent lateral movement; solid defender. Excellent rebounder for a wing.Analysis
Williams looked better last season after back surgery, walking visibly more upright and putting together arguably his best pro season on the court. He’s become an extreme low-mistake player who ranked third among small forwards in turnover ratio and also fouled very infrequently. Additionally, he rated seventh among small forwards in rebound rate.Williams also shot the ball effectively, hitting a career-best 38.9 percent on 3s and shooting the 3 with far greater frequency than in the past. However, he went the opposite way on long 2s, dropping to 33.9 percent on nearly as many attempts. Williams again earned a lot of free throws with his offensive boards and fast-break attacks to the rim, even though he’s not a particularly aggressive or deceptive half-court player.
Defensively, Williams was miscast as the Hawks’ stopper and the team played better once Kirk Hinrich replaced him as a starter, but his length and mobility make him an effective defender overall.
Overall he’s an effective small forward and will be a major upgrade on what Utah had at this spot a season ago, even with a likely regression in his 3-point shooting. He’s just overpaid for what he is.
PAUL MILLSAP, PF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 18.8 10.0 2.9 19.9 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Undersized, high-energy 4 who can score around basket or hit midrange jumpers.
+ Excellent rebounder with good hands and wide frame. Amazing knack for steals.
+ Size a problem defensively. Good passer. Moves well without ball into openings.Analysis
Millsap might be the most underrated player in the league. I love this guy. He’s not a prototype 4 because he’s undersized, but he’s athletic, skilled and just knows how to play. He beats smaller players on post-ups, takes bigger ones off the dribble and confounds both with his midrange jump shot.Last season was his best yet — he averaged better than a point every two minutes, ranked sixth among power forwards in player efficiency rating, and had he been in the Eastern Conference certainly would have made the All-Star Game. The key is how broad-based his skills are: Millsap was in the top half of power forwards in every category I track except fouls per minute. All of them.
He was in the top quarter of power forwards in rebounds and assists. He got to the line and made his freebies. He made 41.6 percent of his long 2s and 71.6 percent of his shots in the basket area. He didn’t turn it over. While he lacks a single defining go-to move, he has such an assortment of options that he can score on nearly anybody; in particular, his ball skills have really improved.
And for an undersized 4, his defense sure doesn’t seem to be a problem. He fouls a lot, and that keeps him off the court sometimes. However, the Jazz were once again better with him on the court than off it, while Synergy’s stats rated him above the league average for power forwards.
And then there’s this little nugget: Millsap averaged 2.25 steals per 40 minutes. To put that in perspective, no other frontcourt player averaged more than 2.0, and no small forward matched Millsap’s total either. The top 11 players in steal rate last season were 10 guys 6-4 or shorter — and Paul Millsap.
AL JEFFERSON, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 21.4 10.9 2.4 21.5 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Left-block post scorer with huge hands. Much improved passer. Good rebounder.
+ Arsenal includes jump hook to 12 feet, great shot fake, and lethal drop step.
+ Poor defender with slow reactions. Too slow for 4, but short for a 5.Analysis
Jefferson discovered the joys of passing out of double-teams and had a career season as a result, unfathomably leading all centers in pure point rating (yes, this really happened) with the help of a historically low turnover ratio.His ability to create shots without turning the ball over is truly phenomenal. Jefferson had miscues on only 4.7 percent of his possessions last season. Nobody in the history of the NBA has had a usage rate this high and turnover ratio this low. Nobody.
Yes, there were some drawbacks to this approach. Jefferson took a lot of midrange jumpers and half-hooks and rarely attacked the rim, so he had one of the lowest free throw rates at his position. As a result, his true shooting percentage was ordinary. But creating league-average shooting with virtually no turnover risk is a great bargain, and despite his penchant for ball-stopping it gave Jefferson genuine offensive value.
As for defensive value, we’ll get back to you on that. Jefferson blocks shots and is a good rebounder, but primarily he seems concerned with avoiding fouls that might take him off the court. Only seven centers fouled less, and it wasn’t because Jefferson was in such exquisite defensive position that he didn’t need to gamble. The Jazz gave up 1.9 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court last season, and that was his best mark in the past three years; Synergy also rated him below the league average.
RESERVES
DERRICK FAVORS, FC
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 17.9 12.5 1.5 17.9 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Mobile big man with elite physical skills and monstrous defensive potential.
+ Raw offensive instincts. Can finish at rim and draws lots of fouls.
+ Poor shooter. Lacks great post moves and ball skills. Lacks great hands.Analysis
Favors showed in the second half of the season what a force of nature he’s becoming, especially at the defensive end. In the second half of the season in particular, he began cashing in on some of that promise; the Jazz played far better defensively with Favors on the court, partly because it meant Al Jefferson was off it but partly because Favors’ length, strength and athleticism make him an All-Defense caliber player down the road. At 6-10 he doesn’t quite have ideal size for a center, and he doesn’t have the skills of a 4, but he has to play somewhere and center seems the better fit.Offensively, he’s further behind. Favors had some great moments and overall it’s tough to argue with 16.6 points and 12.4 boards per 40 minutes, but he had the fourth-worst pure point rating in the NBA and shot 29.8 percent outside the basket area. He shot a lot from out there too, taking nearly three tries a game.
Favors also drew lots of fouls by overwhelming opponents physically, and that rate should only increase as he keeps filling out (he’s only 21) and learns how to use shot fakes and draw contact. However, his 64.9 percent mark from the line needs to improve for that to be of much use.
Nonetheless, it was an incredibly encouraging season that marked Favors as a rising star, and could portend some other changes in Utah’s frontcourt to make way for him.
ALEC BURKS, G
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 19.8 5.1 2.6 15.1 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Smooth, slashing scorer with good size. Can get to rim, draw fouls and score.
+ Solid ball handler and penetrator, but has lousy court vision. Rebounds well.
+ Outside shot needs work. Good defensive quickness but needs more muscle.Analysis
One the more puzzling stories in Utah’s season was the Jazz’s insistence on playing a finished Raja Bell ahead of productive rookie Burks. He finally broke through in the rotation and was the Jazz’s third-leading scorer on a per-minute basis. The biggest weapon was his ability to draw fouls; he ranked fourth in free throw rate among shooting guards. It would help if he found a teammate or two on his forays to the rim, however, as he was just 54th out of 61 shooting guards in assist ratio.Burks can finish and draw fouls, but away from the rim is a different story; his 44.2 percent mark on 2s was well below the norm for shooting guards. Burks shot 33.2 percent on shots beyond 10 feet, three-quarters of which were 2s, and a brutal 9-for-48 between 3 and 9 feet. He’ll need to improve his jumper to become a major scoring threat, but the other tools are all there.
Defensively, Burks will need to bulk up to battle post-up 2s and also needs to cut his fouls (eighth most among shooting guards) and improve his general awareness. He’s quick, however, and could be good in time. Even last season he graded out decently, with Synergy rating him above the league average for shooting guards and the Jazz only defending a hair worse (0.9 points per 100 possessions) with him on the court.
ENES KANTER, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 15.0 12.9 0.5 15.8 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Strong widebody with knack for boards. Below-rim player, struggles to finish.
+ Exceptional rebounder who loves to bang inside. Mobility an issue defensively.
+ Showed shooting skill in Europe but rarely shot as rookie. Needs better ball skills.Analysis
Kanter got to be the third overall pick in 2011 with the help of a dominant performance at the Hoop Summit, where he showed an accurate jumper to complement his brutish inside game. We saw no evidence of those perimeter skills as a rookie; Kanter took just 46 shots outside 10 feet and made only 12 of them, which is baffling. If the Jazz are just asking him to be a grunt, they shouldn’t have taken him third overall.Kanter might be helped by more pick-and-pop tries, but his other problem is that his ball skills are brutal. He had the second-worst pure point rating in the NBA and the laughable total of eight assists the entire season. That gave Kanter the worst assist ratio in basketball (see chart).
Assist Ratio, 2011-12’s Worst
Player Team Assist Ratio Enes Kanter Uta 2.3 Steve Novak NY 3.1 Ian Mahinmi Dal 3.3 DeAndre Jordan LAC 3.5 Joel Anthony Mia 3.8 Min. 500 minutes The one skill he clearly displayed was a knack for rebounding. Kanter’s 18.3 mark was fourth among power forwards, and he drew fouls at a high rate (9th) thanks to all the second shots he earned. At the other end, despite his physical style and the fact he plays for the hack-happy Jazz, Kanter had a very low foul rate for a rookie.
Defensively he wasn’t bad, although he’s not a rim protector and is a bit of a tweener between 4 and 5. Also, it’s important to remember that he’s 19 and basically hadn’t played in a real game in over two years. But if he’s going to be this useless with the ball and rely on teammates’ misses for all his points, it’s hard to justify drafting him so highly.
RANDY FOYE, G
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 16.2 3.2 3.9 12.9 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Combo guard who can spot up for jumpers. Struggles running offense from point.
+ A natural 2 offensively, but can’t defend 2s in post because of lack of height.
+ Good foul shooter. Poor rebounder. Low-turnover player but rarely gets to rim.Analysis
A stopgap starter after the Chauncey Billups injury, Foye proved effective as a floor spacer for the Clippers by hitting 38.6 percent of his 3s while taking more than half his shots from that distance. However, he struggled inside the arc and basically stopped drawing fouls, and that’s what made his overall averages so ho-hum. Only three shooting guards shot worse on 2s than Foye’s 41.0 percent. Between that and his alarming drop in free throws, Foye’s true shooting percentage was slightly below the league average for shooting guards.Foye’s ballhandling numbers were solid, but they’re also misleading — he’s struggled mightily to run the offense any time he’s been asked to play the point, which is a concern since it appears Utah may play him there. On a positive note, he relied much less on midrange jumpers last season.
Defensively, Foye gave up inches and was no star, but he did a solid job at the 2 and should be a bit better at the point. The key weakness is that he needs help when bigger wings try to post him up. He can generally handle himself on the perimeter.
EARL WATSON, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 5.8 4.8 7.5 8.3 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Hard-nosed point guard with size and strength to check 2s effectively.
+ Strong defender but overaggressive; makes bad decisions on both ends.
+ Bad shooter and lacks great point guard instincts. Rebounds well.Analysis
Watson lost the backup point guard job to Jamaal Tinsley for one simple reason: He could neither create a shot nor make one. Averaging a pitiful 5.8 points per 40 minutes while shooting just 33.8 percent from the floor, Watson was simply too great an offensive liability to keep on the court for defensive purposes.At that end, he remains solid. Watson is a classic overaggressive Utah guy, sporting the sixth-highest foul rate among point guards, but he also ranked third in blocks, 12th in steals and 15th in rebound rate. Utah gave up 4.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court, continuing a career-long trend.
Assist Ratio, 2011-12 Leaders
Player Team Assist Ratio Earl Watson Uta 45.0 Steve Nash Phx 44.0 Jose Calderon Tor 43.4 Rajon Rondo Bos 42.3 Jason Kidd Dal 41.2 Min. 500 minutes Unfortunately he’s lost a step offensively and he can’t shoot. Watson made up for it with a league-high assist ratio, but that was partly because he never shot — as a result, 45.0 percent of the possessions he used ended in an assist, but the ones that didn’t ended in misery. His turnover ratio was also nearly the worst at his position, so overall his pure point rating was unexceptional. Meanwhile, he shot 26.4 percent outside the basket area. That’s, um, not so good.
JEREMY EVANS, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Rail-thin, pogo-leaping forward who excels on alley-oop plays.
+ Lacks ball skills and shooting ability. Will block shots.
+ Mobility a plus on defense but lacks strength to guard post.Analysis
Evans shot 25-of-30 in the basket area and 1-of-11 everywhere else; that about sums things up. If it’s not a dunk, he’s not making it, and while he excels on alley-oop plays from the weak side, you can do this sort of trickeration only once or twice a game.Evans’ per-minute numbers are very good, as the Jazz have figured out how to use him in short bursts with the bench, but one greatly doubts they’re sustainable over longer stretches because he can’t create any offense at all by himself.
One thing he can do is block shots. Evans swatted 24 in just 217 minutes, a phenomenal rate of one every nine minutes. However, his lack of lower-body strength is a major problem. In limited minutes, opposing power forwards had a 17.4 PER at his expense and Utah gave up 4.6 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court.
RAJA BELL, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 10.7 2.9 1.9 7.8 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Feisty, physical defender who has declined substantially at both ends.
+ Spot-up, line-drive outside shooter off catch or after a single dribble to right.
+Lacks athleticism and can’t create own shot. Poor rebounder.Analysis
I’ve seen players call out coaches before when they weren’t playing as much as they thought they should, but Bell was killing the Jazz and Ty Corbin was starting him and playing him 23 minutes a night — and Bell went to war with him anyway. The bizarre chapter ended with Bell on the bench and likely to be bought out, while the Jazz inadvertently improved in his absence, closing 15-8 in the 23 games he missed at the end of the season to surprisingly make the playoffs.Bell’s offense slipped in 2010-11, and last season it was his defense’s turn — Synergy graded him well below average and the Jazz did much worse with him on the court. He also fouled tremendously often to little effect — only one shooting guard was whistled more frequently, but only two stole the ball less often. While he’s still physical and competes, he’s just lost too much athleticism at 36 to compete as a fairly short defensive stopper.
DeMARRE CARROLL, F
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Athletic, high-energy combo forward. Quick but not a leaper.
+ Limited offensive skills. Doesn’t draw fouls. Useful in presses and traps.Analysis
Carroll shocked the masses by making six 3-pointers in limited late-season duty with Utah, but look at the season as a whole and it’s the same story — he can’t shoot. Carroll tried 54 2-point shots outside the basket area last season and only made 19 of them. On the plus side, he made the first six 3s of his career on 18 attempts, which offers at least a glimmer of hope. But overall, that’s still terrible.What he did do was score just enough to make it somewhat plausible to keep him on the court for his energy and defense. That’s particularly true if the set-shot 3 he’s working on can find the net every so often, making him more viable as a small forward. Otherwise Carroll is more of an 11th-man type (at best) — useful as a power forward in small, trapping, pressing lineups but little else. We’ll see if his brief burst of shooting competence carries over into 2012-13. I wouldn’t count on it.
JAMAAL TINSLEY, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 12.7 3.3 14.6 10.2 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Slick-dribbling point guard with good court vision. Prone to turnovers.
+ Poor outside shooter with sideways-spinning push shot off shoulder.
+ Has lost athleticism. Rarely draws fouls. Subpar foul shooter.Analysis
I’m not sure what was more shocking: Tinsley signing with the buttoned-down Jazz, or his playing well enough to beat out Earl Watson and claim the backup point guard job. Tinsley wasn’t great — only four point guards had a worse turnover ratio — but he created enough plays to rank 16th in pure point rating, and shot over 40 percent for the first time in half a decade.Tinsley made 44.6 percent of his long 2s, but that outlier hides a worrying second trend: He scored only nine times in the basket area. At 34 he doesn’t have the jets to get to the rim, and that’s problematic for a player who historically has shot very poorly from outside. Tinsley also had one of the lowest free throw rates at his position. One guesses he won’t shoot nearly as well this season, and that his numbers will likely regress as a result.
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