I got the Heat in 6
the spurs defense is not the Indiana pacers defense. the heat will make threes, they wont be able to shut down the lane as well as hibbert did. splitter is not a david west. the only thing the spurs really have that Indiana didn't is tony parker and that match up is a throw up. heat have home court and have played extremely well on the road as well as at home. the heat are what the spurs fear, an athletic team that can wear them down..and I don't mean just having bigs like Randolph and gasol.. I mean they'll make you run to the three point line, run down the court on each possession,
Never count out Duncan and Popovich. They are playing amazing all around basketball right now, and with the way Wade and Bosh have been playing I would give the edge to the Spurs in 6.
Spurs in 6. Match up scary for the Heat. Dominate PG, great at moving the ball. Best Coach in the league. Manu and Duncan time.
You're right, it is a scary match up for the Heat, but yet the Spurs too.....its all about picking your poision, the Spus is an inside and outside threat and Parker is the main guy that makes that system go, but its still more than just a one headed snake! The Heat would have to defend the post and the perimeter and hope to force the Spurs into taking bad shots and making bad decisions all the while keeping guyz off the boards. And really the Spurs would have to do the same against the Spurs.......stroke of the shooters game
I got Heat I 6 or 7. 1st off they have Lebron,2nd I think Bosh will be much more effective against Duncan/Splitter/Bonner as they are more finesse players that wont push him around as much. I also think a combo of Chalmers and Cole will harass the hell out of Parker who will be playing major minutes and get sick of those two when the game is winding down.
It's absolutely insane to bet against the Heat, but I'm going to. I thought the Spurs were the matchup that could give them a lot of trouble from early in the playoffs.
If the Heat were healthy then there is no way I'd pick SA, but from watching both teams in the playoffs, I'm going to say Spurs in 5. Lebron can will a team to the finals, but I don't know if he can take it much further this year.
Heat in 6. Spurs don't present the same match up problems for Miami that the Pacers did.
They present different matchup problems though. They're not the Pacers, but look at the Pacers now, they lost. Everytime the heat play an explosive point guard, they have to put Lebron on him or double team him. This won't work as well when you have a much better supporting cast than Derrick Rose (or even Nate Robinson). The Spurs do a much better job of passing it around, and they'd have much more help. I do think Tony Parker is a huge disadvantage for the Heat. I also think People forget that Tim Duncan is still one of the best defenders in the league (2.7 bpg this year), and he doesn't get in foul trouble often like Hibbert. Splitter presents a problem in which the Heat have trouble covering Big men on the perimeter ( David West was open for mid-range jumpers often). Manu and Green are probably better than Wade at this point. Kawhi should be able to defend Lebron as well if not better than Indiana. I'm not saying that it's automatically the Spurs, but in my eyes the Advantages are in their favor in this playoffs.
Spurs in 6, Won't be LBJ's fault though.
i got miami in 7...really only due to the homecourt... however... if bosh and wade show up like they did in games 1-6 vs indiana.. no way miami wins... if that was the case with bosh and wade.. it would be the spurs in 5... im thinking bosh and wade will play better.. lebron will do lebron... and miami in 7... im just excited as f*ck for this yrs finals
If Miami puts James on Parker (like they did against Rondo vs. the Celtics) they'll probably win the series in 5.
You shut down Parker, you shut down the Spurs.
I have no idea who's going to win this series.
I want to say the Heat because the Spurs don't destroy you on the glass, in the paint and lock you up defensively like the Pacers do. Not only that, the Spurs love to use a lot of P&R and the Heat usually eat those type of offenses up.
However, the Spurs have the best coach in the NBA. He understands how to make adjustments and put his team in positions to win. He's not going to cost his team games by dumb decisions. The players aren't going to beat themselves by dumb turnovers, poor execution and missed free-throws. They have players who've been there, won't be afraid of the moment and can consistently make big plays. The Spurs can play big OR small. They have a superstar in Tony Parker who was probably the third best player in the NBA this year.
This is going to be a great series. This is the series I wanted to see last year. Can't wait to watch it.
You make very good points about the Pacer's strengths in contrast to the Spurs.
However, you do have tor remember 3 things that KILLED Indiana in this series: Bench, turnovers, and poor point guard play are 3 things the Spurs have strengths in as opposed to weaknesses.
I take the Spurs in 6. they are rested, healthy and in top form. The Heat Beat the Spurs both times this season but Parker wasn't playing if I'm not mistaken. I see that the Spurs aren't the Pacers defense but they are not too far off. Parker will torch with penetrating, from outside and passing, Manu will equal or outplay Wade and LeBron will have to work for everything really hard with Leonard guarding him. Last but not least I don't see how the Heat want to win a series rebounding the way they are doing it right now. Bosh will try to lure Duncan away from the basket but Bosh is a non factor right now aside from shooting from the midrange. I just don't see how the Heat want to stop this offense and not the other way around. The Spurs won't produce as many turnovers as the Pacers and are a way better offensive team.
The key for the Heat last year was their bench and the long ball was falling. This year is completely different to me. Aside from Chalmers and Cole no one is really dangerous and Jesus is very inconsistend this postseason.
I'm absolutely sure people will see Kawhi having his coming out party (no homo) and he will be considered elite after we see how hard life will be for Bron.
I see the Heat losing their cool when they are down 2:1. Bron is the best player on the Planet right now but the Heat are no unit and Wade raises my Eyebrows way to often lately.
The Spurs will win game one by 10 points and Pop and Duncan will carry this home. Maybe I'm wrong but nearly every aspect of the Spurs roster is stronger than the Heat right now. I give the Heat probs for making 3 finals in a Row but they aren't the better team right now and I really want to see Handling Stern the last trophy of his career out to Pop who won't even smile!!!
Miami in 5
This is the same series I thought I would see last year and also the one I expected to see this year if the Spurs were healthy. I'm going with the Spurs in 6. Bosh is still cold and Wade is still hurt. I know some people will look at last nights game as a positive sign, but it took Wade and Bosh until a game 7 for Bosh to get 8 REBOUNDS and for Wade to have a good game, but I don't think people realize how hard he was working to get to just 20. Wade can't keep that up I think the game plan will be to let Lebron get his and limit everyone else. I expect Wade to have a really rough series. Spurs might not pound it inside, but they have capable scorers down low and plenty of shooters. They don't turn the ball over and they move the ball quick enough that you are not going to be able to run around and trap people.
Did someone just say Bosh will be more effective against Tim Duncan? Hibbert did play great defense all series, but Duncan arguably should've been the DPOY. He's one of the best defensive bigs of all time, while also having one of the more refined games we've seen from a post player. Bosh won't have a very good time against Duncan.
And no Splitter isn't David West, but he's just as strong and 3 inches taller. While he might not be as good on offense as West, the Spurs have more weapons in different spots than the Pacers did. Their offense will almost never get stagnant like the Pacers' offense did at times, and you better believe that they won't throw away the ball as many times as Indiana did in Game 7 just because they were trapped.
If the Spurs play like they have all playoffs, I don't see how you could bet against them, much less when Popovich is one of the all-time greats who always gets the best out of his role players and is a basketball genius, while Spoelstra is just a decent to good coach. Lebron will win them a couple, but I can't count out Duncan, Parker, Manu, and Popovich. Spurs in 6.
Heat in 6. The Heat should be even more effective on offense than they were against the Pacers. Duncan is unlikely to receive the calls that Roy Hibbert got and the Spurs aren't the dominant 3-point defending team the Pacers are. The Heat got very little from their shooters against the Pacers and still had a fantastic offensive series overall. Just getting a little more from Ray Allen and Mike Miller/Shane Battier would make a huge difference.
On the other end of the floor, the Spurs are better than the Pacers, but the Heat match-up much better with the Spurs. The Spurs don't have the personnel to dominate the Heat down low and are unlikely to be as effective on the offensive boards. The Heat's aggressive, trapping defense will give the Spurs pick-and-roll based attack trouble and they have the athleticism to not be torn apart by the Spurs' ball movement. The Spurs will score on the Heat, but they won't be as effective as they were in the regular season or have been thus far in the postseason.
LeBron James should have a much bigger defensive impact in this series, where he won't have to defend Paul George or David West. James' athleticism should allow him to roam while defending Kawhi Leonard and he will not be punished down low by Boris Diaw. And, as previous posters have mentioned, he could really disrupt the Spurs' offense by defending Tony Parker. He is unlikely to do that full-time, but it could be a devastating tactic in spurts, especially given Danny Green's limited scoring ability and the fact that Parker lacks a phenomenal 3-point shot.
The Spurs are a really good team, but there is a reason the Heat were so dominant to end the regular season and start the postseason. The Pacers were probably the Heat's toughest matchup and they won that series.
I've been waiting for this matchup for 3 years, I'm absolutely PUMPED for this series!
I picked the Spurs to win it all at the beginning of the season and I'm sticking with them. I'm really tempted to say Spurs in 5, but I think they'll get it done in 6, because I think Lebron will will the Heat to 2 wins, but Bosh is stinking up the joint, the role players are icy cold, and Wade's knee is suspect. If you think Hibbert terrorized the Heat, than Duncan will MURDER the Heat. He's going to easily put up 25 and 10 against Bosh. Plus they've been saying all week that Ginobili has been saving himself for the finals, and Parker is finally healthy too. If he was putting up 37 against a stingy Grizzlies defense while being less than a 100%, imagine what he would do to poor Mario Chalmers(they won't put D-Wade on him, Parker is fast). And 10 days for Pop to game plan? Spurs should be able to win handily.
Heat in 6, I think the game will ultimatly be decieded by perimiter shooting and since I think the Heat plays the best defense on shooters I going with them. But if the Heat by some chance can't defend the 3pointers they're in trouble
Miami in 6.
The Spurs don't have the defense that Indiana has and they aren't the rebounding team Indiana is.
I don't see Duncan dropping 22-10 while shooting 55% like Roy Hibbert.
Unless Tony Parker averages 30-8, I don't see the Spurs winning.
With the Heat's lack of size, Tim Duncan just might lol. I don't think anybody saw Roy Hibbert averaging 22 and 10 while shooting 55% either.
For those of you saying LeBron will just shut Parker down, I don't think it's going to be that easy. This isn't going to be like a D. Rose situation where it's D. Rose dribbling at the top with LeBron and the entire Heat defense loading up on him. The Spurs use Parker in different ways and can get him open/free. Not only that, I think Parker's offensive game is much more advanced than D. Rose's.
And even if LeBron does make it difficult for Parker, Manu is great with the ball in his hands as well.
True, but I think that the Heat don't need to shut Parker down. If they simply limit the Spurs to performing at their regular season average, the Heat should win. The Spurs defense should is not quite as dangerous as the Pacers. And Manu is great, but he is too inconsistent at this point in his career. And the Heat are good have the rim protectors to make finishing at the rim hard for the Spurs perimeter players. Parker is insanely good at finishing, so he could have success, but I worry that Manu will become too reliant on his jump shot against the Heat.
For the Spurs to win, they need to win the 3-point shooting battle and probably not just by a slim margin. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green need to knock down his shots and Boris Diaw and Tiago Splitter need to find ways to be effective on offense. Diaw can't afford to get too cute with his interior passing against this Heat team, which will dare him to become a scorer.
If Paul George does not overplay Lebron in game one series was over.
Heat in six. They are too athletic for the aging Spurs, and they just beat the Pacers who totally destroyed them in the post. Spurs don't have any 7'2 shot blockers like Hibbert. Also I just think Lebron is so focused on winning, he won't want to lose another NBA finals.
Best Player rule here makes my choice for me.
I went back and forth in my mind making arguments for each team, but I'm going to simplify it for myself.
Miami has LeBron James, the best player in the world and best player we've seen since Jordan.
Spurs might be the better "team", they run offense as a team utilize each other better than anyone else, every player knows their role (and shuts the mouth!!!, que The Rock) and plays it.
However, LeBron is too good, plus Miami is going to turn it up on defense in crucial spurts throughout the series like last night. Unless Wade/Bosh/Allen/Chalmers vanish and have crapp series, Miami wins.
LeBron asserts his greatness, and Miami wins in 7.
in 5 or 6....most of the things i would say have been said...only real advantage the spurs have is tony parker over chalmers and cole. He's gonna get his but doubt the rest of the spurs can keep up....you don't like it put some money up.
Average Age of the Heat: 31.2 yrs old
Average Age of the Spurs: 28.2 yrs old
I think they mean their core. Not guys like Juwan Howard and Cory Joseph.
Duncan/Ginobili/Parker: 33.6 years
James/Wade/Bosh: 29 years
As well as their play style.
The physicallity will not be there as it has been in the past two series Miami has been in. Bosh on a bad wheel, and Wade on a bad knee will not be pushed around as much. If LeBron gets help from Bosh and Wade the three point shooters start showing up everywhere. And along with that, the Heat are so athletic its hard at times to get into a rhythm moving the ball. When that happens usually teams are forced into isolation where the Heat thrive. I wouldn't be surprised if the Spurs come out firing in game one, but I'm picking the Heat.
These conference finals were very deceptive....
A lot of POV, you can be amazed by the spurs sweep and stay on the heat before the game 7(far from brilliant)....or you can keep in mind the spurs at 2-2 against the young warriors(without lee, playing 3 rookies) and seeing the heat leading by 27 in an elimination game where they shot under 40%...
Same spurs swept by the thunder after a 2-0 lead, thunder swept by not the same heat(allen, birdmen, cole) after a 1-0 lead ?
Spurs sweep against the grizzlies, one masterpiece in the game 1, but then.....2 OT against a team who can't shoot the ball and without superstar AT ALL(so absolutely no respect for the perimeter, that won't be the case against the heat), a team which never reaches the 90 pts mark in regular time(that won't be the case neither against the heat).
Spurs played good D against an awful O, and they played decent O against a supposedly great D.
Heat were as bad as they were at the start of the regular season, except bosh challenged his career lows games after games and wasn't able to reach a drew gooden level, wade was pretty close to a larry hughes level himself, battier was an odd man out cause of the west match up, and ray ray waited the last game to put 3 shots in a row in the entire playoffs.
You still haven't seen what lebron is capable of in this playoffs IMO, time to go HAM is probably coming, wade and bosh can't play that bad in a more friendly pace(the good one), with less youth, less physicality and less length against them.
The championship caliber role players will be probably back in this serie(thinking shooters, battier, allen, chalmers or hustlers-defenders ala haslem-cole-birdmen).
Popovich against lebron this is what it is, with all the praises i heard from the mouth of the greatest coach in the nba, i can't go with him, not 6 years later, not when you were swept by the suns in 10', whopped by the 8th seed grizzlies in 11' and swept by the thunder in 12' after something like 117 str8 regular and PO wins.
I see a lot of cross match ups in this one, that will be fun, the versatility is absolutely not favoring the spurs, you stay big, you'll be outrun, you try to go smallish you'll be punished by THE one men mismatch....
Diaw and bonner won't be enough for the spurs, they were friendly against the grizzlies but now we're talking ELITE individual, elite spacing, elite shooting, elite D at times(seems to be when they really need), better speed, better athletes, some depth(not only 7 players like they played in all 3 previous series), some foul troubles whom the spurs didn't have against a bad O and subpar individuals.
A lot of heat players will be on the two offensive dynamos(parker and gino), 5 should be enough to harass them, parker won't shoot 60% this time, and gino will commit even more TO...killers TO(this time).
You'll have a hard time finding 60-70 pts outside gino and parker on a nightly basis, because this won't be a good D against a bad or limited O this time...basically the destiny of the spurs is in the hands of green, leonard and neal, it will ask a lot of career highs(like the pacers did) to see a game 7.
We'll have a game 6, and it'll be the last...
Maybe that's what we need(1 PO serie lost on 12) to give credit where it's due or at least STFU...
i read all 30 posts to see if somebody raised it, and maybe they did and i just missed it, but for a little trivia for San Antonio, they have never lost a series when they have made the Finals. but it is important to note that this will be the first time in the finals that they dont have home court advantage either.
right now im still on the fence on who i think will be winning it all, maybe tilting towards miami. but if duncan makes an announcement that he will retire if they a championship ala john elway, then my money is clearly on the spurs.
I know this is a very unpopular opinion but I think the Spurs are going to sweep now. Too good, too clutch. D-Wade's knee isn't getting any better, and Bosh has disappeared like he's a Magician in 'Now you see me'. The Spurs didn't even play their best ball, I expect them to win tonight and then finish it off at home.