So I finally broke down and created a Mock
First round, with comments. I few curveballs from what the status quo thinks. I made each pick imagining I was the GM of each team, with an underlying thought process that next year's draft is where its at. If I felt my team was going to suck next year, I emphasized projects over readiness to get in on the Wiggins/Parker/Randle action next year. Tell me what you think. Educated feedback welcome. Happy to provide added rationalization for each pick if requested.
Cheers, and F*CK CLAY BENNETT.
Ya Clay Bennet is only good for getting on his hands and knees.....for the NBA. "Please let me move my team to my hometown David, I act only in good faith."
If Minnesota wants a SG I gotta believe theyll take Caldwell-Pope over Muhammed
I think my mock makes pretty clear thats the decision hanging in the balance. I just think Bazz has gotten too much flack, and Minny is one of the places where is weaknesses arent as glaring because of the playmaking they get out of rubio. Tack on the upside that Bazz has relative to KCP, and If I was Minny I pull the trigger.
I will be schocked if KCP lasts to twenty or whatever late teen number you had him at. He's the type of player who can sneak into the lottery. perhaps even early lotto
I think McCollum is a lock for the top 10, he can play right now and might be the best scorer in the draft.
Hearing if Zeller is around at 10, Portland will take him to swap him to Phoenix for Gortat.
Larkin can shoot, TJ Ford is not the best comparison.
Goodwin will be lucky to be a late 1st rounder (even though I love his upside, and slashing ability.)
Kabongo is a reach for the Nets, when they have bigger needs and there are better players available.
Plumlee is a 1st rd pick, if his brother was one last year, he will go in the 1st.
Tony Snell has jumped up the board, he seems to be a middle 1st rd pick.
Reggie Bullock won't fall that far in the 2nd rd, he won't last long if he's still around in the 2nd.
Hill and Thomas are guys who seem like they have no business in the 1st rd, but there's always at least one guy like that in each draft, so I kinda like the picks.
Saric isn't in the draft?
All valid points, were I trying to predict the actual draft order, my mock would have be considerably different on several fronts.
I tried to put myself in each GM role and make the decision I would make given how the previous "me" picked ahead of me. There's a pretty good reason I'm an equity analyst by trade, not an NBA GM.
Also, I didnt mess around with the second round picks. they are just there in whatever order then ended up after I was tweaking things around. so yeah, youre right, Bullock is likely an early second rounder.
I think from an upside perspective you're absolutely correct about hill and thomas, Its just that if I were denver or OKC I would be looking to grab a couple of high floor role players with those picks given the current states of their rosters. Those two fit that mold. That said, I really do think Solomon Hill has a legit future in the NBA and while likely to be a second rounder in the real thing, I would absolutely take him late first.
In my opinion, Kabongo is probably the worst pick I made, possibly where Snell should have ended up.
Snell is the biggest snub from my mock for sure, I can see his size and length being pretty enticing and he could easily find a home anywhere from the middle first round back.
I agree that on draft night, Plumlee will be in the first round, but I flat out dont like him and I wouldnt touch him with a ten foot pole, so banished to the second round he went.
Also, youre probably right about the TJ Ford comp. its not that great. I honestly had a really difficult time coming up with a good comp for Larkin. strange player really. what would be your inclination?
Saric pulled his name from the draft...
-Unlikely Noel falls to #3, and even if he does I'd be surprised if DC took a player with NO offensive game, and injury risk when they have some reall nice pieces in place.
-I like MCW to the Pistons...but who really knows what they want in their backcourt. It's been a mess since their championship runs with Billups/Hamilton/Prince
-McCollum in OKC would be cool, but probably unrealistic, not to menton as ^above^ states he is the best scorer in the draft.
-I'd be shocked if a player like Kabongo is drafted before Hardaway...just shocked is all I have to say on that
-With that being said I almost promise Atlanta wouldn't draft Goodwin with Hardaway still on the board either. I like Goodwin but I can't remember a player hurting his draft stock as much as Goodwin in a long time, and I am going to attribute most of it to no jump shot and age.
-I love Ray McCallum and I think he has potential to be a steal in this draft along with Ricardo Ledo, just because both players have never really had the ability to show everything they've got. In Ledo's case he wasn't able to show anything. aha
-Reggie Bullock will go in Top 40 worst case. Fact.
Reggie Bullock may not have stayed 4 years at UNC but he has the potential to be a solid role player/sixth man for years to come because he is such a fundamentally sound player offensively already and will never be asked to carry a heavy load. I feel pretty much the same about Tim Hardaway Jr. except better starter/slim all-star potential.
Biggest difference being people aways talk about the lack of explosiveness/athleticism from Bullock, which I don't necessarily agree with but his game leaves me no place to plead his athletic ability vs. Hardaway just mind bogglingly is unwilling to drive. Especially considering his blood lines it is insane how unwilling his is to attack the basket. I forget which game it was in the tourney, either Kansas or Syracuse, but Hardaway just blew by his man on the right and drove towards the middle of lane and just threw down....then proceeded to take long 2's all game. I really think Hardaway will be a stud in the league.
You bring up nice critiques as well. I too would not be surprised if McCollum left the board before twelve. Its really all speculation.
I am very bullish on Goodwin, more than most people. I think he's worth a gamble in the middle of the first round. I would even have him going as high as 12 to OKC if McCollum were off the board already. But thats just imaginary GM me talking. No doubt about it, hes a project. I tried to convey that If I were running atlanta I'd be aiming at upside over need with all the cap space we have to address getting some polished starters.
Like I mentioned above, Kabongo is probably the most questionable pick in my mock, especially with Tony Snell getting snubbed out of the round. It really speaks to the fact that if I were GM of the Nets I'd have a bottle of scotch in one hand and a handgun in the other. What a cap mess.
I love Ray McCallum too, another guy I think could be that dude going 12 to OKC if things broke differently. I just think OKC needs a combo guard coming off the bench. That strategy worked so well with harden around, and I have no idea what they plan on doing with Jeremy Lamb moving forward. I know a lot of mocks have them going with size at that pick, but after Len/Zeller/Olynyk there really isnt a big available who can contribute right away, and I think when you're contending for the title you need to focus on immediate help in the draft, not projects.
Noel only falls to three because A) I have cleveland rolling the dice on Len, and Orlando as the landing spot for Ben Mac. I see the argument for how hes a bad fit in DC, but the upside combined with the tenuous health of Nene makes it stands to reason that they pull the trigger on him over Otto Porter under this set of circumstances.
Ray McCollum? At 12? A middle of the second round guy, leap frogging into the lottery? I like your mock, but that's just silly, why burn a lottery pick on a guy who is going to be there 20-30 picks later. If you are that in love with him trade back, or make a trade for some more picks.
Where is LEDO :S
I think outside of the top ten-lottery there are going to be some surprises, so it get's hard to critique much there. To each his own. However I don't see either Shabazz in the top ten or Olynyk, Nogueira or Larkin going in the lottery.
The comment for Giannis made me lolirl.
MCW doesnt have the height(Penny & Shaun was 6'7,MCW is 6'5) , ball handling, post game or IQ as Penny or Shaun. Shaun & Penny could bring the ball up without turning their back against smaller pgs. MCW has trouble bringing the ball up when pressure is on him. MCW is like a slightly better version of Julyan Stone from UTEP.
Shabazz is nothing like Joe Johnson. Joe has pg ability and can create for others and has great ball handling for his size, where Shabazz doesn't have either of those qualities. Shabazz is more of a better version of CJ Miles to me.
I watch a heck of a lot of college basketball and I have no clue who Julyan Stone is. lol
I see your point, but I always thought Johnson's rep as a playmaker was overblown. Granted, you're right, he has more lead guard skills than Shabazz, but I've always perceived him as a volume scorer. I'm not someone who thinks Shabazz is gonna be a stud, but man, cj miles? thats harsh. The more I think about it, this site's Nick Young comp is pretty spot on. Decent shooter, can get hot, a complete black hole of shots on offense, kind of a loafer on defense. not exactly the kind of player you take 9th in a draft deep with high floor SG's. I still think Shabazz Lands higher than the mid first round though.