[HitsterParticipant]

 With so much of the NBA being about 3 point shooting in the Steph Curry Double MVP era and in recent year’s established all star bigs adding 3 point shooting to their scoring range. It also occured to me reading the Josh Jackson thread that his 3 point range is below average, Fultz is having shooting issues, Simmons rarely tries for a 3 pointer so much so. That when he does make one it will be like the Yinka Dare assist almost!

Seriously though, it has been pointed out that Philly and Bucks both good young rosters both desperately needed some 3 point shooters this season to give their play more variety.

So whilst current NBA players are trying to improve and get 3 point ranges, loads of kids want to be Steph and his shooting they can try to emulate whilst they will never physically be able to lay up or dunk like any NBA player.

But we see a fair number of elite young players with a below average 3 point range especially amongst players in positions where they probably need them. D-Wade and to a lesser extent DeRozan have both been top table players without a real 3 point range, D-Rose won an MVP award without one but for every exception there will be a lot more who don’t make it.

 

 

 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 The 3 point shot is something else, but unless you are knocking down over 40% of your 3’s, you can be just as devastating from the free throw line, on post-ups, on mid-range pull ups, and drives to the basket.  

Not sure what the optimal shot selection should be — probably somewhere between Ben Simmons and Steph Curry.  Weirdly, Kyle Kuzma specializes in BOTH extremes — the Curry spot ups and bombs, along with the Simmons slashes, jump hooks, and dunks.  He also has a mean floater. 

Giannis is a deadly slasher, maybe one of the most deadly slashers EVER.  He is also taking more 3’s.  If he rounds that out with a killer mid-range game then he could have an IDEAL go-to-guy shot selection.

Short answer, Kevin Durant can kill you from ANYWHERE.  His shooting efficiency since joining the Warriors has been off the charts (or at least he was last year).  If ANYONE in the league has optimized his shot selection it would be Kevin Durant.  Then Giannis as the up and coming superstar.  With Kuzma being the rookie with the best mix of shot selection.

If you are scouting for the draft, ironically, you might want to look at guys with fantastic mid-range games.  Anybody can make a dunk or a layup (ok, Tony Allen can’t along with the TA replacements in Memphis), and scoring on a fast break is pretty standard these days (or at least getting fouled and going to the line).  Plus, you can get a few garbage buckets every game just by making hard, timely cuts.  Mid-range shooting should translate well to free throw shooting.  And, you have a decent shot at being fairly proficient from 3.  

I would like to see Trae Young’s shooting splits.  He is a deep range bomber but supposedly he is not as good as Steph at finishing at the rim.  I wanna see his mid-range jumpers, his pull-ups, and floaters.  What does Porter, Jr. do?  If he has the potential for the full KD repetoire then I would have him in the top 3.  Wild card X Factor Bamba can dunk (probably on his tip toes) and can hit a 3.  If he has that slashing skill, some mid-range moves, and a post game then HE could be the Unicorn of the 2018 draft.  At the very least he has Unicorn Defensive Skills and Unicorn Alley Oop Dunking Skills aka Full Javale McGee.  Full Javale McGee on offense along with Full Dikembe Mutombo on Defense/Rim Protection/Rebounding even if he never masters some of the other nuances of the game such as the mid-range and post game and outlet passing.

Porter, Jr. and Bamba are my top two potential Lottery Unicorns.  Trae Young: sometimes a smallish college gunner is just a smallish college gunner.  Marvin Bagley III should either go 1 or 5.  Bottom line: he’s either the next Tim Duncan or he’s not.

Back to shooting range: 20% of scoring/shot attempts should come from the mid-range ideally.  That would be basically shots outside the paint but inside the 3 point line.  Then the 80% of your scoring/shot attempts should come from plays at the basket/slashes/shots in the paint, 3 pointers, and free throw attempts.  Then in that 80% you need to find the right mix.  

So, if you score 30 a night, you need to get at least 6 points a night from the mid-range.  Then probably 80% of the other 24 points from the paint/shots at the rim along with free throws which would be 19 points.  Then that would leave you around 5 points a night on average from 3 pointers, which would translate to 137 made 3 pointers a year for a 30 points per game scorer.  So you take 350 to 400 3’s a year.  So between 4.5 and 5 3 point attempts a night MAX.  Another thing: I am not sure I would trust many players to attempt more 3’s than free throws.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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