Shocking Draft-Day Rise/Fall, 2001-2008
Gerald Green..he slid to like 17 when he was (supposedly) a top 5 pick...and Jason Thompson who was a probable 2nd rounder that went in the lotto 2 the Kings at 14. Or Renaldo Balkman...the 26th pick who was likely to go undrafted (some GM's said they didnt even have a scouting report on him lol)
In 2006, Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo were both projected to go top 5 at one stage. They fell to 21 and 22 respectively. Teams were smart to pass up Williams...the other guy...not so much.
Also, no one was expecting Sean Williams to be picked at no. 17 by the Nets in 2007.
Rashard Lewis falling to no.32 was another famous one.
There are also the classic examples of reaching for great college players that were never going to achieve the same level of success in the NBA...eg.
Adam Morrison at no.3
Sean May at no.13
Jared Dudley at no.22
Juan Dixon at no.17
JJ Redick at no.10
I guess they fit into your 'expectedly crazy' category.
If trends are anything to go by, it would be logical to assume that the Bobcats will use their lottery pick on Tyler Handsbrough. Or maybe trade it for Trajon Langdon.
Balkman definitely...good catch.
I had Rondo in there originally, but NBADraft.net's last mock before that draft actually had him going at 25...lower than he ended up.
I think guys like Sean Williams, Jason Thompson and Gerald Green all had pretty wide ranges going into draft night...
I'm a big Raps fan and a big follower of the draft. I think the biggest drop was Roko-Leni Ukic, now the Backup PG for the raps. I'm pretty sure this site, as well as Draftexpress, hoopshype, and several others had him going anywhere between 15-25. He ended up 40th. That's a bigger drop than most of the players I see on this forum.
Rondo was being called a top 5 pick after his freshman year..until Tubby Smith made the dumb decision to try and play him off the ball (he's known 2 do dumb things like that from time to time). That and his jumper ruined his stock and he slid to 21..Marcus Williams was a projected lotto pick 2 but I think some teams where scared of his athleticism and character..he had a 26 inch vertical at the combine that year and like 15% body fat. I wouldve passed too!! And now he is out the league
Rondo was being called a top 5 pick after his freshman year..until Tubby Smith made the dumb decision to try and play him off the ball (he's known 2 do dumb things like that from time to time). That and his jumper ruined his stock and he slid to 21..Marcus Williams was a projected lotto pick 2 but I think some teams where scared of his athleticism and character..he had a 26 inch vertical at the combine that year and like 15% body fat. I wouldve passed too!! And now he is out the league
Doesn't mean it was a good pick or a bad pick (although, you can judge that quite easily) just a pick that was unexpected at the time. Crazy picks that were expected, like Shelden Williams going 5th, are not included.
Unexpectedly High
- Charlie Villanueva picked 7th (2005, Projected: 12-15)
- Rafael Araujo with the 8th pick (2004, Projected: 15-20)
- DJ Augustin picked 9th (2008, Projected: 12-15)
- Andrew Bynum goes 10th (2005, Projected: 20-25)
- Sebastian Telfair goes 13th (2004, Projected: 20-30)
Unexpected Slides
- Brook Lopez and Jerryd Bayless go 10-11 (2008, Projected: 3-7)
- Danny Granger slips to pick 17 (2005, Projected: Top-10)
- Gilbert Arenas drops to the 30th pick (2001, Projected: 15-25)
- Maciej Lampe drops to 30th pick (2003, Projected: 10-15)
- Carlos Boozer drops to pick 35 (2002, Projected: 15-20)
- Deandre Jordan drops to 35th (2008, Projected: 10-20)