Rubio, Jennings, Jrue? Not even Top 10...in 5 years...maybe 1 of them
I love the PG position moving to a prominent level again, like in the 80's and early 90's. It's like Quarterbacks in the NFL, they are very important and can be so different. Each team in the league could have a PG that they LOVE and wouldn't want to replace for the world. The reason for this post is that I saw someone label Jrue Holiday as someone who has the potential to be a Top 5 NBA PG and a GREAT SG. But, I don't know if I would call him, or any of the PG's in this draft, even close to a surefire top 5 PG. I personally don't think that they will be Top 10 in 5 seasons, but I wouldn't be surprised if 1 of them was.
Let's take Jrue Holiday and use him as an example, which is logical because even the Disney "Boo-ya" Network has been talking this dude up as a Top 10 pick.
He isn't even a Top 5 PG in this draft for some people (to some he isn't the best PG on his team), with almost everybody putting Rubio and Jennings ahead of him. Then most people, including this site, have Flynn, Maynor, Curry, Lawson, Mills, and maybe even Tyreke Evans (who is probably a SG, but unlike Holiday actually has the size to do both) ahead of him now, but I think based on potential he could be arguably the guy with the 3rd most potential. He doesn't have an age advantage here to help in the "Potential 1 - 10" category because Rubio and Jennings are just as young as he is.
Then let's say everyone in this draft at PG is a bust and Holiday is a legit starter. He has Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, and Tony Parker ahead of him. Those are just the guys who aren't going anywhere for 5 to 10 years AT LEAST. That's eliminating Kidd, Nash, Bibby, Baron Davis, and Billups who are already on the way down career wise. Then you have Mo Williams, Jameer Nelson, and Devin Harris who are still in their prime (if they've even reached it yet) and are All-Stars right now! Let's just toss in John Wall, a potential Top 3 pick next year, as well.
Where would the Top 5 even have room to include him if you take the consensus of Paul, Williams, Parker, Rose, and Wall? After watching him in the playoffs, I believe that Rondo is also in the mix for years to come. I don't think that you would put Jennings or Rubio ahead of Mo Williams or Devin Harris in 5 years either. That's without another PG entering the league in the next 5 years except John Wall, which gives Holiday (or Rubio/Jennings) a chance to be the 9th best PG in the league. That's also bumping Jameer Nelson, who is a current All-Star, down to 10th best or less.
Anyway, my point is that I don't feel this draft has what it takes, PG wise. My personal opinion is that Brandon Jennings is going to be the best PG of the bunch and that Rubio won't be able to play defense well enough to be an all-star. Also, I don't think that Rubio is going to have the same luck with passing lanes when the other team has 6'9' small forwards who run faster than he does. But, that's just my opinion. What do you guys think? PG's in this draft worth getting excited over? I think that there has been a recent run of PGs in recent years (3 of the top 4 last year, although I think Rose is the only true PG out of that group) and that there isn't room for 10 PG's a year. That being said, drafting a guy in the Top 10 based on potential at the PG position seems foolish. Why would you, when there are already guys who have shown they can do it at a high level? The league doesn't have as much room for "potential" players as it did 5 years ago. Your thoughts?
I would'nt predict anybody from this draft to be a top 5 player at their position, especially the pg's. The 3 guys you mentioned (Rubio, Jennings, and Holliday) are all unproven and have a lot of work to do before they can be predicted for much. I saw that guy who made the Holiday prediction of him being top 5 and thought it was pretty funny myself, even though I was sticking up for Holiday at the time.
This whole draft is loaded with question marks after you get past Griffin. The only question for the GM's is to find out who has the most potential and hope it works out. With that said, I would rank Rubio, Jennings, Flynn, and Holiday as the best pg's in this draft. I could see all of them going top 10. I think Maynor, Lawson, and Curry are behind those other guys.
IMO. Brandon Jennings will be top 5. I said when I seen him in 8th grade that he had all the natural and entertainment qualities, along with the right combination of confidence and desire to go pro right out of high school (they changed the rules) and be a high quality pro for a long time. If you guys had ever had a chance to be around this kid and understand his head along with what you have seen and heard about him on the court, your opinion would rise ten fold. He has the heart of a real live lion. Just forget about the good and bad of what you heard about his year in Europe. At least he got his family out of poverty and got a year under his belt about how to deal with money. Now he can just concentrate on playing ball. Jennings and the NBA are made for each other. Just my opinion. Talk to you guys in 5 years.
I have been impressed with Jennings' maturity during hs tough ordeal overseas, especially considering he was only 18 years old! I think he will be a good NBA starting point guard if he adds strength and develops a better half court game.
Good stuff, I appreciate the in depth outlook.
Great analysis Scott, im looking foward to how these pgs pan out.....
i really like jennings but top 5 in the nba in 5 yars..hummmmm..less to do with him and more to do with whos already there.....paul ,williams, rose, rondo, devin harris,westbrook ?....i just cant put him over any of them...and rubio....not even gonna waste time on top5 pg in the nba..maybe top 5 euro pg in the nba
llperez22: u don't think griffin will be a top 5 pf at some time? wow...
It's definitely possible Griffin will be top 5, but I just would'nt predict it. I'm not sure why you would add the "wow" like I'm absurd for thinking Griffin is no lock for being a top 5 pf. Can you say for certainty that even after guys like KG and TD fade away, that Griff will be better then Bosh, Amare, Brand, Gasol, Nowitzky, West, Boozer, Jefferson...? Don't get me wrong, I think he will be terrific, but it takes a lot to be top 5 in the NBA at your position.
Clippers, I have been trying to make points like this for awhile now.
These drafts are deceptive. You see a guy going 5th and sometimes you are like..."WOW! 5th! This guys has the potential to be a stud! Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, ... etc.(don't feel like listing them again. See my thread "Do GM's ever look at this stuff?" for every current NBA player picked #5 in the draft)...were all picked 5, this guy is gonna be a fixture on my/his team for years to come!" But, do you know how many PF's have been drafted #1? I mean, Top 5 is hard to get too, like llperez22 said. Bosh, Amare, Brand, Gasol, Nowitzky, West, Boozer, Jefferson, etc.
It gets hard to claim that he'll be sitting there 4th on this list. Of course, no offense and I really am not saying this to be a jerk, when is the last time the Clippers drafted a guy and developed him into a Top 5 guy? Really, they don't usually have much luck in that department and usually bring in a guy who is Top 5 (like just recently, Baron Davis was statistically a Top 5 PG before signing with the Clippers) or is thought to have the ability and either doesn't reach it or goes elsewhere to flourish. That being said, Elton Brand seemed to be an exception to this rule. The Clippers bought him cheap (Tyson Chandler) and got rid of him at the perfect time.
I can't believe I am saying this but I believe the Clippers have themselves a perennial All-Star team in the VERY near future (possibly 2009-2010) and could (God, I can't believe I am going to say this "out loud") be an attractive destination for a free agent in the next couple of seasons as well. Also,
I do think that Blake Griffin will be a Top 5 PF in less than 5 years. I could see him being 3 in 3 years. Also, clippers (the user name), you know my feelings on Eric Gordon no EVER being a "Superstar", but I do see his game translating into a good match with Griffin. Although I don't know if that will be the "core" of the Clippers (since I don't really believe in that term anymore) I do think that both of their games will benefit from the other.
As far as the PG's go, once again, Jennings is the one who I see having the best possibility of being a Top 10 guy. If Rubio ever makes it their I will be pleasantly surprised (I would love the entertainment value he would bring, like Nash and Jason Williams). But, look how long it took Nash to become ELITE, what was it, 8 years?