Rookies for fantasy
A little bit off topic, but still revolves around the draft. I'm in a dynasty 30 team NBA GM league where you draft rookies like the actual NBA Draft.
Pick 1 was Jabari, pick 2 was Wiggins, and 3 was Embiid. I have the 4th pick. In terms of long term upside as well as intial contributions, who is the best prospect (fantasy wise) to select with that 4th pick?
Marcus Smart, Elfrid Payton, and Julius Randle would be good picks
I might be a lil high on the kid, but i really like the upside to zach lavine.
Westbrook comparison is lazy.
I'm crazy high on Exum, haven't seen as much of him as some other guys but he flashes some incredible talent.
I've watched a lot of Exum since the Jazz drafted him. I've watched almost all of his friendlies in Europe with the Australia National team in the last month. He's got crazy potential, indeed. His speed, vision and passing are great, he has amazing feel for the game and basketball IQ. And he has the size. BUT... if you are expecting him to be a beast from the start, you are in for a world of shock. He is not even remotely NBA-ready. He's somewhat of a PG-version of what Giannis was last year - very talented player with size for position, but extremely raw. Jazz fans would need to be really patient with him, he has a ton to work on. His shot is not good at all, his left-hand handle is loose, his body is a work in progress and he's been running out of gas in a lot of the games he plays in 20 minutes of play.
He's been very inconsistent with Australia. When he plays with the ball he generally is great. When he plays off the ball, he doesn't know what to do and gets lost in the games - usually just stands in the corner and waits for something to develop, no cuts, no use of screens, etc. He's pretty invisible whenever he plays the SG position, but when he gets the ball in his hands, you can't help but notice his speed and potential to collapse defenses and involve his teammates. The problem is, first, he's not ready to start and, second, the Jazz FO are pushing the "Exum and Trey can play together" rhetoric, which wouldn't work in Exum's favor if he has to play off the ball. In essence if that happens they'd be sacrificing Exum's best attributes(passing, vision, feel for the game), for his worst attributes(shooting, off the ball movement).
At this point I wouldn't expect him to have a great rookie year. He's a project for the future, not a contender for ROY in my opinion. He may very well turn out to be one of the very best players of this draft in the long run, but it won't be this year.
i agree that Marcus Smart makes the most sense in the imediete who has considerable upside to be a good long term prospect. other high upside guys such as Aaron Gordon and Dante Exum, you dont really know really know how many years its going to take for them to live up to their potential or to even be consistent with their production on the court.
julius randle, earlier mentioned as well, is also a safe pick. good talented high pick player in a non-playoff team. only thing i can see derailing his production is if kobe forces byron scott's hands on the rotation and urge not to give minutes on the rookie in favor of the veterans to try and make a play-off push.
my next favorite prospect for fantasy would probably be elfrid payton. fits the mold of talented player in young weak team. he has the extra benefit of having only Luke Ridnour as his primary competition for minutes at his natural position of PG. that or if we see more of oladipo at the 1 with fournier getting minutes at the 2.
a good pick a few slots later i think would be dougie mcbuckets. i think he'll be a good source of 3's and all 3 percentages with a low turn over rate. that gives you about 5 categories in a standard 8 cat league.
late first round value to me would KJ McDaniels. i think he'll be philly's long term fixture at the small forward position of the starting line-up. serving as their 3 and D hustle player. Nick Johnson is another second round pick that could surprise and get minutes this season and produce numbers. houston's PG depth is pretty shallow now and they could go with johnson competing against isiah canaan and troy daniels for the back-up pg minutes behind starter pat beverly
Those are my picks.
For fantasy points I would think it will all depend on playing time!! Payton could be a starter and get plenty of PT. Wiggins and Parker should both get plenty of PT(probably start) and produce good numbers.
I would say Wiggins. Points, boards, and everything else.
there aren't many good shooting guards out there then he would be a good option if he is 2 guard eligible. He should also be small forward eligible which is a good position but really top heavy, especially with Paul George being out for the year.
I would actually take Nerlens Noel. In head to head you need to win 5 categories. Ok, throw away free throw percentage, 3's, assissts, and points. Go with bigs. Noel will help with blocks, steals, and boards and should be solid with FG%.
randle may get a double double from the go in la or be close too it and payton is gonna get plenty of minutes which is a huge bonus for a rook in fantasty