This topic contains 5 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by AvatarAvatar sheltwon3 11 years, 10 months ago.

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  • #39539
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    benny15
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    is there a particular area in the draft that you would say that a prospect with immense potential is worth getting even though the bust potential is very high? we all know the likely candidates in this year draft, but there have been severall mixed feelings about taking those kind of players. some believe its best to swing for the fence even though theres an equal chance of striking out, if not more.

    take andre drummond for example. we’ve all heard or read about his up-side and that dreaded P word about him. a lot of people want him as the second over-all pick due to his physicall attributes and being a once a decade specimen. the chance for someone is too good to pass up on. on being the next dwight howard who has simillar tools. but does that chance or possibility off-set the fact that he may be the next Kwame Brown? Kwame was a promising bigman on work-outs who was besting the numbers in the combine and beasting his competition in group work-outs. the guy was mobile, athletic, fast, timing, strong and had a big frame to fill out. but as we all know a decade later, that doesnt mean he’ll ever live up to what he could do.

    if you have a chance on drafting the next steve nash but has an equal shot of turning into sergio rodriquez, do you take him with a top 5 pick? how about taking a flyer on a rondo type player who could become derrick zimmerman? or a Larry Bird clone that may end up as the next Adam Morrison? what is it about prospects that makes you think they will become closer to the lofty expectations early picks are given? age? charachter? past results? physical tools?

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  • #674671
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    fliptonn
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    I would say the main argument is for physical tools because genetics is something you can’t teach. Drummond can do something which very few people on the planet can do which is be 6’10+ 260lbs+ and maintain a high level of athleticism. Therefore he can be drafted based on that "P word".  Where as Adam Morrison is a great shooter like Larry Bird but there are a lot of great shooters, Larry was also a great passer and defender. I see what you mean though. I guess scouts feel athleticism is a much easier guage for potential than basketball skills because basketball skills can be taught. Of course this doesn’t always translate. On paper Kwame Brown was a much better prospect than Andre Drummond is today but scouts still see the potential in him and are willing to take the risk.

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  • #674674
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    JoeWolf1

     That’s good you brought up Kwame, because I feel, if Kwame were taken in the 3-5 range like Drummond is expected to and had the exact same career he wouldn’t get near the hate from the media.  I think Drummond will be better than Kwame, but even if he’s not, the fact he’s not going #1 over all will make him look like a better pick.

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  • #674676
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    JunkYardDog
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    I think it depends on your roster and your aim. You can target "high reward high risk" prospect if you have a coaching staff able to control him and a "player mentor"… but you have no insurrance he managed to reach his potential. You have to select a player able to play in your system and who will have playing time.

    Upside is often only dust in the wind or buzz based on nothing. But some players have really better potential, often thanks to better athletic abilities. The problem is we rarely talk about "coachablity", mental toughness, will to improve, to be the best (all the mental tools) when we evaluate the uspisde of a prospect. And in my mind it’s the most important part of a young prospect.

    Why faried turned to be a boom and not a bust ?…. mental tools avoiding him to underachieve, and allowing him to use the best his physical tools, good GM / coach who freed some playing time.

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  • #674728
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    sheltwon3
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    Drummonds hand size already makes him better than Kwame.  Also he went to college and learned his position before having to deal with that and the NBA lifestyle.  Kwame is someone that would be a mulitple all star big man if he went to college two years.  I think a lot of small factors hurt him because it appears his confidence is shot.

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  • #674729
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    sheltwon3
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    I feel very confident that Drummonds will be at least a 15pt 10 rbs 1.7 block guy who is strong on defense and decent on offense.  At worst you have a more athletic and bigger Kendrick Perkins.

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