[surveParticipant]

A day after considering possible stat lines for some of this year’s top draft picks, it’s time to put the sophomores-to-be under the spotlight. Specifically, we’ll focus on the room last season’s most promising rookies have for growth in their second seasons.

This time, the projections are generated by Basketball Prospectus’ SCHOENE Projection System, which uses players’ stats to match them with similar talents at the same age, then uses the development of those peers to generate a projection. In this case, we’ve assumed each player will have the same role as last year so statistics can easily be compared on a level playing field. Numbers in parentheses are from 2010-11 season.

Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers

24.2 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 4.3 apg (22.5, 12.1, 3.6)

Even after an outstanding rookie season, Griffin can still get better in Year 2. The big difference could be in Griffin’s scoring. Improving to 24.2 points per game would take him from 12th in the league in scoring to eighth. Among post players, only Amare Stoudemire (25.3 ppg) averaged more points last season than Griffin’s projection.

Similar players — a group headlined by Griffin’s Clippers predecessor Elton Brand — increased their involvement in their teams’ offense by 7.4 percent the following season. Griffin already used 27.5 percent of the Clippers’ plays last season but has the potential to improve that by creating more of his own offense while facing up defenders. The biggest obstacle to doing that might be a healthy Chris Kaman, because Kaman’s post-up game makes him a far bigger part of the offense than DeAndre Jordan.

John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards

17.6 ppg, 8.5 apg, 4.6 rpg (16.4, 8.3, 4.6)

For Wall, a breakthrough season seems to be another year away. In fact, of the five players in this group, Wall’s comparables saw the least average improvement the following season — just 4.5 percent. Although Wall is frequently compared to Derrick Rose, who also played for John Calipari in college and was taken No. 1 overall, SCHOENE matches him with Russell Westbrook of the Oklahoma City Thunder because both players made a relatively low percentage of their 2-point attempts. (Rose is fifth on the list.) Rose was an All-Star as a sophomore, but his big improvement came last year when he won the MVP award. Westbrook also broke out in his third season, making the All-Star team for the first time.

That’s not to say Wall won’t improve in Year 2. A big difference could be seen in his turnover rate. Similar players cut their turnovers by 6.4 percent the following season, which explains why Wall’s assists-to-turnover rate is projected to go from 2.20 to 2.31.

DeMarcus Cousins, F/C, Sacramento Kings

15.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 3.2 apg (14.1, 8.6, 2.5)

When you think of Cousins, you probably don’t think of passing, but statistically his assist rate was one of the strongest aspects of his game as a rookie. Similar players (led, amusingly, by fellow Kentucky product Antoine Walker) handed out nearly a third more assists the next season, which would take Cousins over three assists a night. Just six big men in the league, including Griffin, averaged more than Cousins’ projection of 3.2 apg. As important to Sacramento might be a decline in Cousins’ foul rate, projected at more than 6 percent. Cousins led the NBA last season with 4.1 fouls per game. In fact, he fouled 58 more times than anyone else in the league.

(SCHOENE cannot account for the possibility that Cousins plays a different role next season. Because center Samuel Dalembert is a free agent and the Kings dealt for power forward J.J. Hickson, Cousins could end up logging far more minutes in the middle.)

Greg Monroe, F/C, Detroit Pistons

10.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.6 apg (9.4, 7.5, 1.3)

Monroe was passed over for the All-Rookie First Team, but few rookies did more to help their teams win. Only Griffin surpassed him in Basketball Prospectus’ wins above replacement statistic. What might limit Monroe’s upside is that he has what Bill James has termed in baseball as "old player skills." Other than rebounding, the areas in which Monroe excelled — taking care of the ball and finishing at a high rate — tend to be associated with grizzled veterans rather than promising rookies. Indeed, players similar to Monroe made relatively modest strides the next season, improving on average by 5.5 percent.

It might seem surprising that Monroe would regress on the glass next season, but this is actually relatively common. Players tend to peak on the offensive boards as rookies and decline from there, while defensive rebounding is generally steady from year to year. If Monroe is to beat last season’s rebound average, it will come thanks to more minutes after he came off the bench early in his rookie campaign.

Derrick Favors, F/C, Utah Jazz

7.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 0.6 apg (6.8, 5.3, 0.5)

Favors, who will turn 20 next week, was the NBA’s youngest player a season ago, so rapid improvement is to be expected. The average player similar to him did in fact improve by 13.1 percent the following season, barely edging out Cousins for the most projected development heading into Year 2. Favors’ numbers are likely to trend upward across the board, though the extent of his development may not be evident unless he’s able to carve out additional minutes in a frontcourt that has become crowded with the addition of No. 3 pick Enes Kanter. Favors does have a unique claim to playing time in that he’s the best defender of the Jazz’s options up front.

[B FreeParticipant]

I dont like that they have Monroe barely changing, as a starter last year he averaged 12 ppg and 9.1 rebs and after the all star break 13.7ppg and 10 rebs all he did all year was improve and now he has Knight to take some heat off of him.

[B FreeParticipant]

I dont like that they have Monroe barely changing, as a starter last year he averaged 12 ppg and 9.1 rebs and after the all star break 13.7ppg and 10 rebs all he did all year was improve and now he has Knight to take some heat off of him.

[R-Dot-13Participant]

What do you guys think of Jordan Crawford and Ed Davis?

What stats do you think they will put up next year? and how will they help their teams?

[R-Dot-13Participant]

What do you guys think of Jordan Crawford and Ed Davis?

What stats do you think they will put up next year? and how will they help their teams?

[ChriJollParticipant]

 Just wondering if the system your using accounts for other stats?
 

I’d be curious to see how many steals its projecting for Wall after last year?

 

[ChriJollParticipant]

 Just wondering if the system your using accounts for other stats?
 

I’d be curious to see how many steals its projecting for Wall after last year?

 

[JoeWolf1]

 Mine Blake Griffin + 1-10

Blake Griffin – 23.7 ppg 12.6 rpg 3.7 rpg

John Wall – 17.7 ppg 9.0 apg 4.8 rpg

Evan Turner – 11.3 ppg 6.1 rpg 3.8 apg

Derrick Favors – 7.8 ppg 8.1 rpg 1.2 bpg

Wes Johnson -10.2 ppg 3.5 rpg 2.0 apg

DeMarcus Cousins – 16.1 ppg 9.1 rpg 1.3 bpg

Greg Monroe – 15.2 ppg 8.8 rpg 2.5 apg

Epke Udoh – 7.5 ppg 4.3 rpg 2.0 bpg

Al-Farouq Aminu – 6.6 ppg 5.0 rpg .5 bpg

Gordon Hayward – 7.2 ppg 3.4 rpg 44% 3 pt

Paul George – 13.4 ppg 4.5 rpg 1.4 spg

 

[JoeWolf1]

 Mine Blake Griffin + 1-10

Blake Griffin – 23.7 ppg 12.6 rpg 3.7 rpg

John Wall – 17.7 ppg 9.0 apg 4.8 rpg

Evan Turner – 11.3 ppg 6.1 rpg 3.8 apg

Derrick Favors – 7.8 ppg 8.1 rpg 1.2 bpg

Wes Johnson -10.2 ppg 3.5 rpg 2.0 apg

DeMarcus Cousins – 16.1 ppg 9.1 rpg 1.3 bpg

Greg Monroe – 15.2 ppg 8.8 rpg 2.5 apg

Epke Udoh – 7.5 ppg 4.3 rpg 2.0 bpg

Al-Farouq Aminu – 6.6 ppg 5.0 rpg .5 bpg

Gordon Hayward – 7.2 ppg 3.4 rpg 44% 3 pt

Paul George – 13.4 ppg 4.5 rpg 1.4 spg

 

[ChrischiParticipant]

Am I the only one who thinks that Wall could easily go for 20+ ppg?

[ChrischiParticipant]

Am I the only one who thinks that Wall could easily go for 20+ ppg?

[providencefriars1Participant]

surve you probably should have mentionned that you got this from ESPN.com

[providencefriars1Participant]

surve you probably should have mentionned that you got this from ESPN.com

[surveParticipant]

sorry, I thought most would figure it Insider info, dont really like to advertise the source if its not a free one…lol….but I will start tagging the headers.

[surveParticipant]

sorry, I thought most would figure it Insider info, dont really like to advertise the source if its not a free one…lol….but I will start tagging the headers.

[StF616Participant]

John Wall: PPG:19.6 APG:8.4 RPG:4.3 SPG:2.1 MPG:39.3
Blake Griffin: PPG:24.7 RPG:14.3 APG:4.1
Evan Turner: PPG:14.5 RPG:5.2 APG:3.3 
Wesley Johnson:PPG:11.3 RPG:4.4 APG:2.2
DeMarcus Cousins:PPG:17.4 RPG:11.2 APG:2.8
Greg Monroe:PPG:14.2 RPG:8.4 RPG APG:3.9
Paul George:PPG:10.2 RPG:4.1 APG:2.1

 

[StF616Participant]

John Wall: PPG:19.6 APG:8.4 RPG:4.3 SPG:2.1 MPG:39.3
Blake Griffin: PPG:24.7 RPG:14.3 APG:4.1
Evan Turner: PPG:14.5 RPG:5.2 APG:3.3 
Wesley Johnson:PPG:11.3 RPG:4.4 APG:2.2
DeMarcus Cousins:PPG:17.4 RPG:11.2 APG:2.8
Greg Monroe:PPG:14.2 RPG:8.4 RPG APG:3.9
Paul George:PPG:10.2 RPG:4.1 APG:2.1

 

[DimetriFrancis17Participant]

 why doesnt anyone have wall projected to have more than 9 apg?? he could easily do this especially since he has plenty of easy assist to get from alleys to javale and kick out threes from jordan crawford and nick young, i wouldnt be suprised if he averaged a bordeline 10 apg

[DimetriFrancis17Participant]

 why doesnt anyone have wall projected to have more than 9 apg?? he could easily do this especially since he has plenty of easy assist to get from alleys to javale and kick out threes from jordan crawford and nick young, i wouldnt be suprised if he averaged a bordeline 10 apg

[Tongue-Out-Like-23Participant]

StF616

"Blake Griffin: PPG:24.7 RPG:14.3 APG:4.1"

That’s a pretty bold predictions.  The only guys who managed those stats were Kareem Abdul Jabbar (6-times), Wilt Chamberlain (5-times) and Elgin Baylor (4-times)

That’s pretty elite company.

[Tongue-Out-Like-23Participant]

StF616

"Blake Griffin: PPG:24.7 RPG:14.3 APG:4.1"

That’s a pretty bold predictions.  The only guys who managed those stats were Kareem Abdul Jabbar (6-times), Wilt Chamberlain (5-times) and Elgin Baylor (4-times)

That’s pretty elite company.

[Author]

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