Points Per Possession Differential *Advanced Stats Topic
I'm working on a new Advanced Statistic for ranking players based upon their combined offense and defense and I was hoping I could get your guy's thoughts on it.
I'm a big fan of the Offensive and Defensive rating stats (points per 100 possessions while on the court) that I get from basketball-reference.com. What I want to do is create a Net Differential Rating that compares a players Off and Def ratings to those of his team, which is relatively simple, here's a sample from the New Orleans Hornets:
Off Rating = 110
Def Rating = 103
New Orleans Hornets
Off Rating = 105.7
Def Rating = 109.6
Anthony Davis Differentials
Off Rating = 4.3
Def Rating = 6.6
Net Rating = 10.9 (this also happens to be the highest on the hornet)
Players on better teams will have better absolute ratings simply because they play more possessions with more talented players whereas good players on bad teams should have better differential ratings. Anthony Davis probably would have better absolute ratings if he played on the Heat but lower differentials. At this point we can conclude that Anthony Davis most likely makes New Orleans better on both offense and defense . What I'd like to do next is adjust the differential by the quality of team that the player is on, perhaps apply a modifier that makes each team equal to a 0.500 team?
Any thoughts and suggestions are welcome. If you guys think this could be useful I'll start posting comparisons for different players on this site. Cheers.
Net Rating is already a stat that's tracked.
Thanks but I should have made it more clear that the point was to adjust Net Rating by the quality of team you play on (increase Lebron and Durants and decrease Anthony Davis and Greg Monroe's)
When they do 100 possessions stats do they count were a team gets a offensive rebound as another possession? So like if Davis tips in a miss of a shot he took, is that another possession? Because if so then a team could score every time down by getting offensive rebounds and there per 100 stats would have them missing points in half (50) those shot/possessions.
I'm pretty sure that counts as another possession. I don't think that will ever be a problem though, tipping your own shot back in happens infrequently enough. If anybody's offensive rating would get messed up by this it'd be Moses Malone, in his prime his offensive ratings were around 115 - 120, which is good but not great for a superstar, so you may have a point
I don't really know, but I suspect it doesn't count as an extra possession. Your team hasn't lost the possession until the other team gets the defensive board. I know that possessions pretty much always balance between teams except for the last possession that can end on an odd or even when each quarter ends. Possessions wouldn't balance out if offensive rebounds created new possessions.
Moses Malones ORating seems low for an HOF because back in that era folks had slight lower ORatings. Teams didn't score as efficiently back then. Moses was still a monster and those are superstar numbers as compared to many folks. Though I don't know ORting for back then. I just know that shooting percentages were lower back then. And there were none or far less 3PTs (depending on when we are talking about). So in terms of points scored per 100 possessions, they would have been lower.
I think you are on to something with your stat by the way.
I think it would hurt someone like Moses Malone because those can't really be considered possessions. Then you run into the problem, that one team then has say in a overtime game where one team has ten more offensive rebounds, then they would have 110 possessions count toward there stats while the other team has 100. This wouldn't give a accurate view of what really happened. It potentially punishes good offensive rebounders or multi tap in guys.
What about free throw attempts because they don't count as a shot attempt in traditional field goal percentages.
Coincidentally, today is Anthony Davis' 20th birthday, hopefully he'll have a dominant decade and live up to his potential. His Per 36 minute stats are 17 and 10 with 2.3 blocks and 1.4 steals a game so I think he's going to be a very fine player very soon, crazy how he and Irving are so young, and Irving I think turns 21 in a week or two.
He's had a couple monster games in a row now, 20 and 18 against Memphis then 18 and 10 against Portland plus the win. I'd like to see him go on an injury free streak to end the season