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Playing scout from past drafts

JonOats
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Playing scout from past drafts

Looking at players from the same conference during past seasons head to head only using conference stats (common opponents) and their measureables from the combine who would you draft?

PFs

Player A- Height 6'9.5" Weight 258 lbs Wingspan 7'2.25" Max vert Reach 11'5"

18.8 pts 8.9 reb 1.1 assists 1.2 steals 2.3 TO .6 blks

Heads up: Game 1: 20 pts, 5 rebs, 0 assists Game 2: 18 pts, 12 rebs, 3 assists

Team won a National Championship

Player B- Height 6'9.5" Weight 218 lbs Wingspan 7'1" Max Vert Reach 11'10"

13.1 pts 7.8 reb 1.8 assists 1.1 steals 1.3 TO 1.6 blks

Heads up: Game 1: 14 pts, 7 rebs, 4 assists Game 2: 23 pts, 11 rebs, 3 assists

Team won a National Championship

I'll just post this first one and work on the next one so each post isn't crazy long. Thought this would be interesting without knowing each player and their reputation. I'll post who each player is and where they were drafted in an hour.


Tongue-Out-Like-23
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Age?

Age?

JonOats
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cont. with sf

Player A: Freshman Height 6'10" Weight 200 lbs Wingspan 7'3.75" Max Vert Reach 12'

14.4 pts 6.2 rebs .9 assists 1.2 steals 1.8 blocks

Heads up: Game 1: 20 pts, 5 rebs, 1 assist Game 2: 11 pts, 2 rebs, 1 assist

Player B: Senior Height 6'7" Weight 221 lbs Wingspan 7'1" Max vert Reach 12'1"

23.5 pts 8.8 rebs .8 assists 1.2 steals .9 blocks

Heads up: Game 1: 29 points, 12 rebs, 0 assists Game 2: 12 points, 6 rebs, 0 assists

JonOats
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Sorry realized I left out their ages too late

PFs Player A is a junior and Player B is a sophomore

Fixed it for the sf example

inukawaii8
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this i just a wild guess. it

this i just a wild guess. it seems like player A might be an upper classman or someone who gets the ball often in the down low. Player B, on the other hand, is a skinny freshy who is making an impact right away.

I would personally pick player B. the height and wing span measurements are fairly close except the weight. with the right trainer, player B might be able to grow into his body. even though player A has a 1+ inch wingspan over player B, player B can out jump player A by a good 5 or 6 inches. That is, player B might be the better athlete. Judging from the numbers head to head, player B also seems to be more versatile.

JonOats
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Last example-sg/sf

Player A Junior Height 6'7" Weight 206 Wingspan 6'7" Max Vert Reach 11'7.5"

18.7 pts 6.3 rebs 3.4 assists 1.5 steals 2.1 TO

Heads up: Game 1: 19 points, 7 rebs, 3 assists Game 2: 25 points, 6 rebs, 4 assists

Player B Freshman 6'6.5" Weight 211 Wingspan 6'9" Max Vert Reach 11'9"

13.6 pts 5.8 reb 1.4 assists .9 steals 1.9 TO

Heads up: Game 1: 10 pts, 4 reb, 2 assists Game 2: 20 pts, 8 rebs, 2 assists

JonOats
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Identity of the PFs

Player A - Carlos Boozer picked 35th overall. Averaging 17 pts 10 rebs in NBA

Player B - Chris Wilcox picked 8th overall. Averaging 8.6 pts 5.1 rebs in NBA

JonOats
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Identity of the SFs

Player A- Brandan Wright picked 8th overall. Averaging 5.5 pts 2.9 rebs in NBA

Player B- Al Thorton picked 14th overall. Averaging 11.9 pts 4.2 rebs in NBA

-

Glad for some thumbs ups but was always wanting some more feedback or choices. Hopefully this was interesting to some people. I'll wait and put the last identities up tomorrow and possibly some more comparisons.

My initial thinking was that scouts ignore common sense comparisons when evaluating players. It's obv more difficult in the apples vs oranges scenarios you get every year (ie Oden vs Durant) but sometimes in examples like the ones above scouts out think themselves and ignore the production.

Even if you think Boozer's and Wilcox production was similiar or worth a gamble on Wilcox's upside, 27 picks in between the two is just crazy. If you are curious what nbadraft.net predicted in the mock draft for that year, Wilcox went #5 and Boozer went #19...right after Marcus Haislip.

4thewin
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SG/SF

Player A Junior Height 6'7" Weight 206 Wingspan 6'7" Max Vert Reach 11'7.5"

18.7 pts 6.3 rebs 3.4 assists 1.5 steals 2.1 TO

Is that Evan Turner? He left after junior year, same height and weight, but stats seem a bit low for it to be him.

Hale
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I love these, I wish people

I love these, I wish people hadn't already said who they were though.

ivan138
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maybe nick young '?

maybe nick young '?

ivan138
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or chase budinger

or chase budinger

ivan138
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other one bad stats drafted

other one bad stats drafted ahead i guess and pretty athletic, if the first guy is chase other one must be demar cuz hes more athletic and had less good numbers in college

Mr. 19134
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I'll never understand what

I'll never understand what GM's saw in Chris Wilcox to draft him in the top 10 nor do I understand how Carloz Boozer fell to the 2nd round. Boozer should of went in the lottery easily in that draft but I think he had concerns about his knees or something, there was a reason he slipped but still he should of never slipped that low. And Chris Wilcox really increased his draft stock during by having a big tournament and tested out as a freak at the combine.

And Al Thornton was like 24 when he entered the draft and plays in Puerto Rico right now. Brandon Wright's career was sidelined by injuries but is playing pretty well for the Mavs right now. And Brandon Wright is a PF/C not a SF.

I have no idea who the other set of examples are but the freshman has nice scoring numbers for a frosh. I couldn't say who I would take without knowing what type of athlete they are and what type of game they play and whether or not it'll translate to the NBA. But I would say the freshman just because the JR.'s scoring numbers aren't that much higher for having 2 more years of college experience and I like the fact the the freshman doubled his scoring output from 10 points to 20 in the 2nd game showing improvement and growth. Plus he has a longer wingspan and max height reach. But who knows he probably flopped in the NBA.

You could do this wish Josh Howard and show his whole combine numbers cuz he looked like a lottery pick at the combine putting up very impressive numbers all around the board and measuring a 7'2 wingspan and he had solid SR season stats and have another freshman who was impressive and most people would probably still take the freshman.

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I'd add a few attributes,

I'd add a few attributes, because there are so many factors that go into picking a player - that go beyond stats and size measurements. Also, I'd include their shooting %s, because that can be telling as well.

mikeyvthedon
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Not the same conference

But they did play each other once, both in major conferences and would be classified as PF's:

Player A 19 years old: 6'8.25, 217, Wingspan 7'3.25, Max Vert Reach 12'3.5

12.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.8 TO, 1 spg, 3.1 bpg, 60.8% FG (Averaged fewer minutes per game as well)

Heads-up: 21 (10-14 FG), 13, 3 blocks

Player B 19 years old: 6'11.25, 234, Wingspan 7'4.75, Max Vert Reach 12'0

15 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 0.5 apg, 1.6 TO, 1.4 spg, 2 bpg, 56.9% FG

Heads-up: 4 (2-14 FG), 10, 5 blocks

Also, are you trying to say that DeMar DeRozan was not better than Chase Budinger? I agree that Budinger may have gone too low, but the jury is still out on him being much more than a back-up. This is only their third year after all, but I think DeRozan was most definitely the right player to pick between the two. There usually are extenuating circumstances as well, but the bottom line is that you never really know whether a player will fully develop or not.

TaylorCondrin
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mike im guessing you're

mike im guessing you're comparing Chris Singleton and Hassan Whiteside...am i right? that being said, ill take whiteside due to his size/length and the fact that singleton cant do anything offensively

mikeyvthedon
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TC

Not even close bro, lol. Keep guessing, but these are both players who have been in the league for a while. Other flaws in the choices:

  • Whiteside was averaging 5.4 bpg and was 20 years old
  • Singleton was a senior and 22 when he entered the draft one year later

These are two players who entered the draft in the same year and are still playing in the league. The numbers are from there last season in college. By the way, Whiteside doing anything offensively is not necessarily a guarantee either.

Here is a really good one that will show you how difficult it is to differentiate between a couple of players and what they will turn out to be in the future. These guys are both wing players and played in the same conference, the averages are conference statistics:

Player A: 6'7.25, 196, Wingspan: 6'11, Max Vert Reach: 11'9

15.2 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.7 apg, 2.1 TO, 0.9 spg, 1.6 bpg, 47.3% FG

Heads-up: First Game: 19, 7 and 6, Second Game: 18, 10 and 4

Player B: 6'6.75, 217, Wingspan: 6'11, Max Vert Reach: 11'8

12.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 4.7 apg, 2.7 TO, 1.7 spg, 0.4 bpg, 47.7% FG

Heads-up: First Game: 15, 11 and 2, Second Game: 9, 2 and 5

I hate using measurements with shoes (I prefer without shoes plus 1.25 inches, as I do not think everyone wears platforms like some seem to at the draft), but that is what the original poster did. Both are still in the NBA and have been in the league for a decent while. Guarantee that this was not as easy a pick as it seemed for a variety of reasons, including one player being on a team that had a great record.

JonOats
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Thanks guys. Glad to see some participation

The last group with the sf was

A: Buddinger drafted 44th overall

B: DeRozan drafted 9th overall

JonOats
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Ok Mike

in the pfs I'd take Player A and sfs I'd take Player B, but would have like to have known their ages. Those heads up stats were crazy. Def curious who everyone is.

That there is even a little big of doubt between taking Buddinger or DeRozan now is still the point for them being drafted so far apart.

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Mikey V, was player A(in your

Mikey V, was player A(in your first post where Taylor Condrin guessed) by any chance DeMarcus Cousins?

mikeyvthedon
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Congrats Jon!

You just chose Tyrus Thomas (#4) over LaMarcus Aldridge (#2)! Well, Stephen A. Smith and the Chicago Bulls would have been happy for you. That is, until seeing that LaMarcus Aldridge is an All-NBA PF and Tyrus Thomas is, Tyrus Thomas.

For the wing guys, Player A was 21 and Player B was 20 (Doubt this would make a difference, and just to make my point): You did choose Andre Iguodala (#9) over Josh Childress (#6).

My point is: Hindsight is 20/20. Scouts do not know it all, you and I do not know it all. Plus, things go WAY beyond the statistics and attributes we just listed for these "blind" prospects.

aamir543
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Player A in MikeyV's second

Player A in MikeyV's second group is Nick Young, no doubt about it.

mikeyvthedon
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Aamir

Wrong and wrong. Listed them above, but, you saying "no doubt about it" just makes you being wrong about it funnier :).

Also, Player A on my first one being DeMarcus Cousins? 217 pounds? Really Aamir!?

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Nevermind, I'm pretty bad at

Nevermind, I'm pretty bad at this, lol. And in my defense we made our posts at the same time, lol.

Player A 19 years old Sophmore 6'11 250lbs

16 ppg 9.6 reb 3.8 ast 1.5 blk 1.2 stl 52.5% fg%

Player B(Same draft class as the player above, just using his sophmore year) 20 year old sophmore 6'11 240lbs

15 ppg 11.1 reb .9 ast 3.5 blk .6 stl 60% fg%

Sorry, didn't look up the combine stats, hope this si enough though

mikeyvthedon
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Aamir

Greg Monroe and Cole Aldrich? Definitely made me think, but using the "I'll just use his sophomore stats" gave it away. Monroe really was a great passer, more complete player and better rebounder. It definitely depends, but I will usually take the bigger, Big East dude averaging 9.6 over the guy in the Big 12 averaging 11.1. Greg was 7th and Cole was 11th, thus far Greg looks much better. I was going to ask what conference, but when I figured out that it was Greg Monroe I just put my head to think up Cole Aldrich in that draft as well.

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^Yup, you got it.

^Yup, you got it.

JonOats
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Mike

Glad you added those examples. They were great and good to see players that were taken so close together. hell Adridge and Thomas were traded for each other on draft night. Those were tough choices but especially after knowing who each one was it just illustrates my point further that scouts/gms overvalue the "potential" of players especially when it comes to leaping ability and shotblocking.

And how come I don't get any credit for picking Iggy over Childress?

The other thing about the examples I posted was the huge difference in where the players were selected despite being similiar in stats and that the better player (both stat wise from college and as a pro) was taken so much later than the inferior player.

I agree that you can't solely rely on stats, but sometimes the "eye test" and media hype behind a player (esp if they make a run in the tourney) can overwhelm what they have done all year.

I'm def going to do some more of these soon.

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Wilcox is just a guy who

Wilcox is just a guy who benefitted from playing on a National Championship team. Every Championship team can pretty much count on their players getting pick about 5 spots higher than they would have if they wouldn't have won it all.

Kemba has proved to be a solid pick at #9, but if UConn got bounced in the Elite 8, I think he probably would have been picked up 12-15 range.

JonOats
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agree Joe

the biggest oversight in that regards to me is Jon Scheyer going undrafted. I know he had those weird injuries in summer league but he should have been drafted before that. Leader of a Championship team. All American. Lead team in points, assists, and steals and one of the smartest players I've ever seen. I'm not a Duke fan, but that is just insane to me.

I think the bump that the tourney gives players is just another of the huge mistakes that scouts make.

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