Pick One Prospect
Pick one prospect you think has the best shot at making an all-star and one that has the best shot at being a bust.
I'm going with Anthony Bennett. He's skilled, powerful and athletic and a match up nightmare.
For a bust, I'm going straight to the top. I think Nerlens Noel is massively overrated. He's 7'0" yet only weighs 200lbs, he has virtually NO offensive game and he's coming off a major knee injury. He's a terrific shot blocker and has pretty good hands and anticipation but he's by no means a complete defender nor is he a stand out rebounder.
For sake of posting purposes I'm going to pick different players because I agree with what you had to say about Noel. LOVE his game, but I tore an ACL playing college ball and never got back ANY of my burst back. Now, I'm no 7'0 footer, nor was I ever an overly athletic guy, but his athleticism/explosiveness is what made his game, without that, he's a skinny 7'0 footer...
Oladipo - I disagree with what scouts are saying about this guy, I believe his ceiling is a lot higher then he's given credit for. He has worked his @$$ off to become one of the premier college ball players, and lets not forget, his measurements at the combine were pretty impressive. The kid is a professional a'la Ray Allen, and will work until he's retired (barring injury)
Burke - I hate to say it, but his height is a very serious concern. I am a Magic fan (I know it sucks) and they have tossed around the idea of drafting Burke. It's not that I don't like the kid, its just he's so d@mn small...you'd really have to think this guy was Kyrie Irving/Chris Paul to get past that height. The kid has got the talent, don't get me wrong, but so did DJ Augistine coming out of Texas (comparable height/weight) and I'm pretty sure he's a career backup.
Imo, burke's height is fine. His game is pretty comparable to Kemba Walker and they're about the same height. 1 or 2 inches smaller than someone isn't really a large difference at the guard position. I don't think anyone's ever been a bust based on height. It's more about their talent level.
The issue is Burke is really unathletic for an NBA pg. Almost every good starting pg in the NBA is significantly more athletic than Burke, so his lack of tremendous height is a bigger problem. And Burker did clearly benefit from being in the ideal offense to use his talents. I love Burke's mentality on the court and his shooting ability, but he will have an uphill battle to justify his selection if he is picked to 5. This is a weak draft, though, so I don't really see a problem with taking him high, and he is certainly better than MCW, who may be a worst ball handler than any pure point guard in the NBA.
All Star - Dennis Schroeder (my favourite player in the draft) has the length, speed, ball handling, first step and instincts to be great, needs to work on his shot off the dribble and protecting the ball but has all the tools. there are others who will make all star but i think Schroeder will be the 'best' all star if he does make it.
Bust - So many guys have bust potential but i'm going with Noel, A guy i like a lot as a Kentucky fan but he's shown no ability to gain weight and some scouts think his frame won't support much more weight. He doesn't have much of an offensive game and coming off an ACL may hurt his athleticism (then again, it may not with new medical practices). i just think without some added strength and offense he may not make it as a starter for a team and may just be a defensive back-up centre.
Noel will be fine, however he will require time to adapt, he needs to.
The only thing stopping him from becoming an elite defender in the NBA right now, is his physical strength.
Instinct wise he is already there. His thin frame needs some hard work in the weights room.
I hope he is the type of player who understands his own limitations and works hard smartly and not putting too much expectation on himself and knows that his time will eventually come.
Rather than trying to rush and contribute quickly, set himself a long term plan to breakout in his 3rd season, using two season of gym and also importantly, learning the game from the sidelines to gain knowlege of game. His body type seems to be able to gain weight up to 240 without losing much athleticism and lateral movement. Hopefully with a veteran big (bro) to guide him.
I hope the Cavs take him and be patient with him. A PG with strong leadership will be very helpful for him.
Therefore, I believe/hope after his 3rd season, he will gain to 245 and be able to contribute to the team very effectively.
Maybe, with a stat line of 10.7 pts@ 58%FG% 65FT% /11.6 reb/1.2 ast/ 1.6stl/ 3.2 blks/1.2TOs
I think Oladipo has all star potential with his freakish athleticism. With his relentless motor I think it will give him more chances to shine. My bust pick is Noel. No offensive game and being only 206 will be difficult for a top pick to live up to expectations. It might take more time for Noel to be a star if he does get that far.
imo the prospect w the best shot at becoming an all star is Mclemore. His game is going to translate no doubt. His jumper is so smooth already, alot of times i think GM's take that guy that has all the athleticism or great genetics(height/weight) in the world over guys who are really skilled. Sometimes it works, sometimes they improve their jumper and other parts of their game but too often they are what they are an amazing athlete who isn't that great at basketball. They get thrust into the NBA because throughout high school and college (to some degree) their able to dominate with superior athleticism. Thats just not the case in the NBA, sure its great to be one of the most athletic guys but they are all very skilled, even the big men. The players i always would be worried to pick are the guys that come from over-seas, you just don't know how they handle NBA talent. There have been many guys like Darko who are great players in their country but just can't handle basketball here.
I'm going to go with the later picks here, as most everyone agrees on bust potential from Noel.
Surprise: Tony Mitchell - Super athlete that seems to have his head in the right place. I know last season was a disappointing one, but I think he'll be fine. I think he'll break out of the middle/late first round ala Faried and play with a lot of energy. If he's in the right system he could thrive.
Bust: Michael Carter-Williams - If a player is from Syracuse and they aren't named Melo, you should probably avoid them. Haven't seen any good ones (melo, maaaaaybe Waiters) since I started watching in 94.