This topic contains 15 replies, has 7 voices, and was last updated by AvatarAvatar dolla130 12 years, 1 month ago.

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  • #36590
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    Prometheus
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      I’v seen a lot of debate lately concerning who the better point guard is; Chris Paul or Derrick Rose. So I decided to formulate a definitive opinion based on statistics alone. I am comming into this analysis with an unbiased approach as to who the better PG is. The analysis focuses on stats from this year. My final opinion will be formulated based on all around value.

    Derrick Rose; 22.0 ppg, 7.8 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 2.9 turnovers, 0.9 steals, 35.5 mpg, 0.462 FG%, 0.310 3P%, 24.8 PER, 28.9 usage%—And he shoots 5.7 freethrows a game

    Rose’s assist totals have improved since he came into the league. His rebounding per game numbers have decreased, however, he is playing on a team averaging 45.1 rebounds per game (good for 2nd in the NBA) so this decrease probably isnt too big a deal. Rose’s usage% is 5 points higher than 2nd place Carlos Boozer.

    Chris Paul; 18.2 ppg, 8.8 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 2.1 turnovers, 2.3 steals, 35.7 mpg, 0.492 FG%, 0.472 3P%, 25.8 PER, 22.9 usage%—And he shoots 3.6 freethrows a game

    Paul’s assist and rebounding numbers are down from his career averages. This is probably due to his adjusting to a new team. Paul’s 3P% is very high so far this year, however, his career 3P% is considerably higher than that of Derrick Rose. Also, before Chauncey got hurt, Paul’s usage% was good for a 3rd on his team. Griffin, Billups have higher USG%, Mo Williams is identical to Paul’s and Caron Butlers is a fraction of a percentage point lower than Paul’s.

    Comparriason: I don’t know what you guys think about the win shares (WS) statistic, but its worth noting that in 7 seasons in the NBA, Chris Paul has 3 seasons with a WS better than that of Derrick Rose’s MVP campaign. Paul WS(17.8 3rd season)(18.3)(13.9 same year that Rose won MVP) to Rose WS(13.1 MVP 3rd Season). Having said that, Rose took a 33-49 lottery team and took them to the playoffs in each of his first 3 seasons, they were 62-20 in his third year. They are on pace to go 50-16 this season. Paul carried a 18-64 hornets team into a 56-26 #2 seed in his third season. Last year the clippers finished 32-50, this year they are 19-9 and on pace for a 42-24 record.

    So far this year, statistically Chris Paul is superior to Rose in the following categories; Assists, Rebounds, Steals, Turnovers, FG%, 3P%, and PER

    Rose is superior in the following categories; PPG and Freethrow attempts per game.

    Having said that, heres a look at one of Chris Pauls seasons in which he averaged a similar usage% as Rose has this year.

    Paul (2008-09) 22.8 ppg, 11.0 apg, 5.5 rpg, 2.8 stl, 3.0 turnovers, 0.503 FG%, 0.364 3P%, 30.0 PER, 27.5 USG%, and he averaged 6.7 free throw attempts per game.

    When comparing these two point guards with numbers alone, its a no brainer. Chris Paul is superior Derrick Rose in basically every calculable way. Don’t get me wrong, watching Derrick Rose is an absolute treat, his desire to win, his speed, and his athleticism are unbelievable. Rose is also younger and hasn’t had arthoscopic knee surgery. But this isn’t about who you would rather start a franchise with, its about who the better player is right now. It appears that the real reason for this debate stems from two major sources, the first has to do with the size of the market each player has played for in their respective careers. Derrick Rose is in his 4th year playing for Chicago, the 3rd largest metropolitan area in the US and home to one of the NBA’s most storied franchises. Chris Paul spent the majority of his career playing in New Orleans, the 46th largest metropolitan area in the US. Though he is now playing in LA, the 2nd largest metropolitan area, it has only been for a portion of one season. He also plays for one of the most consistantly terrible franchises in the history of the NBA and shares this market with another one of the NBA’s most storied franchises. The other factor is how much weight many people commonly give to the PPG stat. Scoring is important, but not so important that it can elevate Derrick Rose to Chris Paul’s stature. Paul is superior in every category except for points per game. And despite this, Paul scores more efficiently than Rose anyway. From what I’v seen, Rose doesn’t even possess intangibles that trump Paul’s. If I’m in game 7 of the NBA finals, I want Chris Paul running the point.

     

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  • #638178
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    dolla130
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    those numbers all sound good but numbers dont tell an entire story the eye test is all i need and thats what the people who choose rose over paul have and from what i see derrick rose is the most dominate pg to come around in some years with the will of kobe bryant, and in a 7 game series give me the guy thats harder to stop, lebron puts up excellent numbers every year hes been in the nba basically but early on with better numbers you wouldnt say he was better then kobe bryant

    paul is the superior passer  and shooter but to me thats it on defense rose has really improved a great deal he may not get the spg numbers like paul but all you gotta do is keep your man infront of you, as a leader they both lead in different ways rose by imposing his will on the opposition and paul vocally as a rebounder rose is as good a rebounding pg in the league hes had a few 8,9,10 rebound games when need be

     

     

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  • #638179
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    DanEboy
    Participant

    Rose-5 CP3-0 in all time head to head matchups. Those are the only stats that matter.

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  • #638187
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    DipoTime
    Participant

     Good thread and statistical breakdown man especially for your 5th post. I personally don’t even look at the stats when talking about these two. Although rose is faster and more explosive and nearly impossible to stop going to the rim, Paul is just as unstoppable but in a different way. How many times in his career has he taken over a game? Or hit big time shots? He is constantly outsmarting his opponents and you rarely if ever see anybody lock him down. It just doesn’t happen. If u keep him out of the lane he shoots outside. If his shot is off he gets everyone else involved. Then he plays great D. What else is there? Paul George used his length to disrupt rose in the playoffs and I actually watched him in person last night slow down D-will in the fourth. I don’t think he does that to Paul though bc he doesn’t rely on his physical attributes like rose does. He’s too freakin smart and crafty. And honestly if he had to I’m sure he could get 25 a game just like rose. Rose is an amazing player no doubt but at this point I would take Paul any day

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  • #638207
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    Prometheus
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    I completely get your argument.  I guess I didn’t make it clear enough how valuable I think Rose actually is.  Rose can dominate a game and I agree that when he is on he is just about impossible to stop.  He’s incredible, loved him at Memphis and in the pro’s…I pretty much love everything about the guy.  Thats why I decided to compare statistically.  When you shred the numbers and go by the eye test, I think you get two variations of two different aspects of greatness and who you would choose ends up being predominantly based on what you value most in a PG.  When you watch Paul you see a PG in complete control of the game, its like having a coach on the floor.  When you look at a basketball game like you look at a game of chess, Chris Paul is Bobby Fisher.  He is an elite PG in every sense of the word.  Rose is great because of the way he attacks, he’s like a weapon with seemingly unlimited ammunition.  He can absolutely dominate a game and when you watch him you can’t help but think that this dude could drive, draw the foul, and score on God…then hit the freethrow blindfolded…from half court.  So what the eye test yields (for me) is a 5 star general vs a completely badass weapon.  Just based on the eye test, the question isnt whose better, it’s what would you rather have? Would you rather have a a superstar who can elevate his game to singlehandedly beat down opponents and send the crowd into a frenzy (Rose).  Or, would you rather have an incredibly smart superstar who can elevate the game of those around him while still remaining dangerous (Paul).  Both cases have proven successful in the NBA and I think it’s impossible to pick one or the other based on the eye test alone.  Its nature Vs. nurture, playing with emotion Vs. playing with brainpower.  Personally, I want the general but, each game has a life of its own and demands a different series of factors to win.  This is why I removed the eye test from the initial analysis.  In this case its like comparing apples and oranges…I happen to like oranges better.  Plus my orange has better stats.

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  • #638214
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    Hi its Ben
    Participant

     dang could you make that more readable^^

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  • #638229
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    Prometheus
    Participant

     I could………but nahhh

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  • #638245
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    Hale
    Participant

     Derrick Rose is the best player to play PG, Chris Paul is the best PG (hopefully not too confusing). We all know Paul is more efficient, a better passer and a better defender. But everytime they play, Rose destroys Chris Paul. Just look at the last matchup this year. Rose had like 28 8 and 16 assists. At the end of last year, Rose locked Paul up too. When he has to be, he’s a great defender. I think Rose is better because everytime he gets a key matchup against another top PG, he wins it. 

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  • #638257
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    Mr. 19134
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     I still can’t fathom why this is even an argument I think it’s like Prometheus said because Rose plays in Chicago and CP3 has played in Norlins most of his career.  Because I use my eyes to judge this and I don’t use my eyes through a biased Bulls fan view I use them objectively liking both player.  And just like the stats tell my eyes tell me it’s not close.  CP3 is the smartest PG I may have ever saw.  Stockton and Nash come close but Paul’s a better scorer then Stockton and he’s a better defender then Nash.

    @Dolla I can tell you don’t even watch Paul play cuz he’s a great defender who is an All Defensive team type of defender.  I would bet right now Rose will never make an All Defensive team in his career.  By now Rose is either going to be a great defender or not, and it’s clear he’s never going to be a shut down defender.  

    Also as a Sixers I’ve always been much more scared of Paul coming to town then Rose.  Iggy and Holiday play well Rose well, especially Iggy which is a big reason the Sixers ran over the Bulls last time and Rose didn’t even play the 4th.  Chris Paul came to town and nobody had an answer for him and despite amazing defense by Iggy he still managed to hit an impossible turn around jumper that won the game.

    People have become blinded by either Rose’ age, his scoring, his MVP, or most likely his freakish athletic ability but he’s really not better then Chris Paul.  He’s not better at Chris Paul in any aspect of the game and despite Rose’ size and hops how is it that Paul still averaged more rebounds?  Despite Rose’ speed why is it Paul still get’s a ton of more steals?  

     

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  • #638263
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    DipoTime
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    Everytime they play Rose destroys Paul? That was one game.. and Paul had 15 and 14 not like he got shut down or anything.. Their first meeting Paul had 29 and Rose had 4, and according to basketballreference

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=paulch01&p2=rosede01

    Rose has clearly not dominated Paul every time they have played…

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  • #638264
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    Hale
    Participant

    If Rose is worse in every aspect though, why does he always outperform Paul head to head? Rose doesn’t even attempt to rebound btw, he sets up for the outlet pass to get running.

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  • #638265
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    Hale
    Participant

     Did you watch the game or just check the numbers? Just a question. My bad for missing one game.

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  • #638272
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    DipoTime
    Participant

    I checked the numbers just to make sure I had the right numbers lol but I did watch the game and Rose did play outstanding.. Rose dominated the game but like I said its not like paul did horrible. he shot 50% from the field and had 14 assists. Ya Rose outplayed Paul and Rose dominated the GAME but I dont see how he really dominated Paul or how he ever dominated him in their first four meetings. Plus, this is just a small 5 game sample. I still believe that Paul is the better PG. Rose is amazing I’m not taking anything away from him. If CP3 is #1 then Rose is #2.. But Paul has his games where dominates as well but he does it in three areas where Rose almost always does it in one. Sometimes two. 

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  • #638274
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    Hale
    Participant

    Good post. I have nothing against anyone for having Chris Paul at 1. I just personally believe Rose is the better player. Although it’s really 1A and 1B for me.

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  • #638283
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    DanEboy
    Participant

    I can’t even comment on Rose anymore without getting negged. But I will say this again, they are both completely different point guards. You can’t really compare the two as point guards, not fair.

    As a pure point guard, Paul is better, but Rose is a very good passer, just not flashy like a Rondo or Nash. He knows exactly where his teammates are going to be on the floor at all times. As a go-to player who takes over games down the stretch, Rose is better. Paul can absolutely do it, but not quite like Rose can.

    Just depends on what you like.

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  • #638343
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    dolla130
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    @Dolla I can tell you don’t even watch Paul play cuz he’s a great defender who is an All Defensive team type of defender. I would bet right now Rose will never make an All Defensive team in his career. By now Rose is either going to be a great defender or not, and it’s clear he’s never going to be a shut down defender.

    thats the problem he doesnt have to make a all defensive team or be a great defender he just needs to be a above average defender his job is to keep his man infront of him and make it tough for them, no point guard in the nba is a shut down defender there a really good ones, the last shut down defender at the pg spot was gary payton whom non of these pgs can even dream to become on the defensive end

    also chris pauls defense against the top pgs in the league isnt that good so if you cant slow down the best players at your position or make it a long night for them how good a defender are you, yeah he gets his steals but iverson got a lot of steals didnt make him a good defender not comparing the two on D just stating the facts, rose did what ever he wanted against paul in that first meeting this season and on the flip paul had a tough time getting past rose without screens

     

    head to head stats of the top pgs against one another

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/812771-derrick-rose-and-the-top-five-point-guards-based-on-head-to-head-contests

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