This topic contains 8 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by AvatarAvatar nill650 6 years, 9 months ago.

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  • #66450
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    nill650
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     every year there are freshman or Sophmore prospects who are picked high or higher than they should have been & others who were passed on.( granted it’s early & upsides still have a window)

    last year it was players like Poeltl,Baldwin,Ellenson, Beasley & richardson that were taken higher than they should have been.With prospects like Murray & McCaw falling.

    Or in 2015 overpicks like Lyles & Vaughn where Portis & Nance were still available.

    who will be those prospects this year?

     Cam Oliver , Edmond Sumner & Eric Mica & Tyler Dorsey are the 4 most likely to go lower than they should.

    with Lonzo Ball, Frank Jackson, John Collins, Jarrett Allen, Ivan Rabb, & Thomas Bryant potentially going much higher than they should.

     

     

     

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  • #1099162
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    Bankroll PJ
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    With the exception of Larry Nance, every player you mentioned here is a freshman or sophomore that was/is generally regarded as a "guy who’s not ready yet but has upside," including the guys you think will go lower than they should. These upside picks are always a crapshoot, so to say some these young guys with upside should go higher than some of these other guys with upside is inconsiderate. The only argument you could have to say one guy SHOULD go higher than another is if their college production was significantly higher; however, all of these guys had productive 1 or 2 yr careers. Sleeper picks happen every year. Some hit, some miss. That’s just the way it goes. 

    That being said, I do think Tyler Dorsey could have a long career in the league, but it’s inconisderate to say he SHOULD go higher than other guys just, because he performed well in the tournament. 

     

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    • #1099163
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      nill650
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       Interesting concept , but for clarification purposes "should have" , when correctly interpreted in this case simply means they have not shown the value that others who fell have despite they all had been picked on upside for the most part.

      The point also being : sure, they still have upside, but others taken after them with the same label coming in have proven more already and so therefore are more likely to be the better pick at this time. 

      So when you say it is inconsiderate to say should have , you are misinterpreting the point. You could say I.T. should have been a first rounder couldn’t you? 

      How about Klay should have been a top 3 pick? 

      Maybe you could justify saying MKG should not have been the #2 pick it’s all standard assessment wording nothing more.

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  • #1099167
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    llperez

     way too early tto say guys just last season were taken higher then they should have. gordon hayward averaged 5ppg his rookie year after being top 10 pick. WOuld you say he was drafted before he should have been? otto porter averaged 2ppg his rookie year, was he taken before he should?

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    • #1099175
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      nill650
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       Again, the point is they are not as good yet as some of the one’s taken after them.

      Which equates to not being worth as much, and equates to less $ deserved on the rookie scale.

      There are obviously exceptions to that rule when they turn out to be allstars after slow starts. Usualy that is when they are stuck behind someone, so there is a certain amount of expectation and pressure that falls away from them until it is "their time"

      But when you look at prospects taken to teams who have positional players that are not good, but the rookie still can’t earn a spot in a rotation, it’s either stubborn coaching,lack of defensive efficiency so they can’t stay on the court or because their skills didn’t transfer and is a big red flag when the team could have gotten one of the later picked players of the same upside and position that is proving worthy of a higher spot and more $.

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  • #1099178
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    Choppy
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     Henry Ellenson was highly regarded and most mocks had him going in the late lottery. I’d seen one that had him going 10. So by this metric he actually was drafted lower than expected at 18. Same as for Wade Baldwin going 17. Now are they both too high based on current production? Hard to say. SVG wanted to build Ellensons strength for a season and teach him defence before giving him game time. I’d say he impressed in very limited minutes, even getting a double double late in the season. Can’t say much about Baldwin, he’s stuck behind Conley and got some opportunity to play. Didn’t set the world on fire but waaay too early to say he was picked ahead of where he should have been. 

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  • #1099183
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    nill650
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     At the end of the day if the prospect does develop into being the kind of impact player that matches or comes close to matching the value a team placed on him when they are drafted, and they knew full well it would take a few years, then sure it was still a good pick. But if that org could go back and redraft, they would take the prospect who they didn’t have as high on the board that outperformed the one that eventually did in the seasons that their pick was still growing as a player.

    I am aware that bigs take longer esp if they are needing to get stronger and don’t play defense coming into the league like Ellenson unfortunately a lot of prospects with out a solid fundamental skillset on both sides of the ball never do live up to the spot they are taken. Most that do, are elite defensive players who lack a 3 point shot or something as opposed to offensive bigs without the length to play defense or are too slow. 

     every draft 3 or 4 prospects out perform their draft position and usually are the ones that had character issues or were drafted to a great org that scouts better than the orgs ahead of them.

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  • #1099227
    HeroescantdieHeroescantdie
    Heroescantdie
    Participant

     Bennett, Cle wasted their pick 

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  • #1099258
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    nill650
    Participant

     The NBA is a buisness not a game, sorry believers the League is corrupted. 

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