[The8thDeadlySinParticipant]

I just read a comment similar to this:

“…this draft is so weak. Neither one of those guys are even remotely close to franchise players.”

So I started wondering: Exactly how many number 1 picks turn out to be franchise players?

I will list them all since 95. Give my opinion (explain the ones that need it) and you all feel free to give your own.

1995 – Joe Smith – No, because he never averaged more than 19 points a game and never averaged double digit rebounds..
1996 – Allen Iverson – Yes
1997 – Tim Duncan – Yes
1998 – Michael Olowokandi – No
1999 – Elton Brand – Yes, because he was a 20-10 player for basically 9 years..
2000 – Kenyon Martin – No
2001 – Kwame Brown – No
2002 – Yao Ming – Yes (untill injury)
2003 – Lebron James – Yes
2004 – Dwight Howard – Yes
2005 – Andrew Bogut – No
2006 – Andrea Bargnani – No
2007 – Greg Oden – No (I know injuy was reason but regardless, answer is no.)
2008 – Derrick Rose – Yes
2009 – Blake Griffin – Yes
2010 – John Wall – Yes (Could be argued)
2011 – Kyrie Irving – Yes (Barring injury)

I dont think it would be fair to judge Davis right now.

Yes – 10
No – 7

So, about 59% of the time, you get a franchise player with the first pick.. It has been better in recent years but it seems to happen in groups..

What are your opinions??

[festar35Participant]

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/2nd-overall/20509/

This site has all the picks of last 20 years or so.

[ShekiruBoomParticipant]

i don’t know exactly, but i’m gonna assume thats probably the highest % from any other pick. Yea you are gonna have busts but still a franchise player with the first pick is more likely than a franchise player with the 10th pick

[The8thDeadlySinParticipant]

I just looked at 2nd picks since 1995.. I see 1 sure fire, Durant.. Then there are guys that are very close like Lamarcus Aldridge and Mike Bibby.

3rd picks since 1995.. 6 sure fire guys. Jerry Stackhouse, Baron Davis, Pau Gasol, Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, and James Harden.. Then some maybe guys like Al Hortford and Chauncy Billups.

4th picks since 1995.. 3 sure fire guys. Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Russel Westbrook. Maybe guys: Rahseed Wallace, Marbury, Antwan Jamison, Tyreke Evans.

5th picks since 1995.. 7 sure fire guys. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Demarcus Cousins. Not really any maybe guys..

[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

So, if you don’t go number 1, you want to go number 5 …

[ReactionParticipant]

If you do the last 10 years including Anthony Davis who I put as a Yes.. it increases to 70% rate with 7 Yes and 3 No. I think recently after the addition of the college rule it has been more accurate of an indicator.

[The8thDeadlySinParticipant]

You cant say that Davis wont have a Greg Oden career.. I dont wish that on him or anyone but he has already shown to be a little injury prone.. You cant say yes about a guy that has only played 1 season.. Joe Smith was never much better than he was as a rookie..

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

That looks right to me. Not as many franchise guys as you might think. A few busts. Joe Smith was pretty solid. Looked like a core guy on
the Warriors before they blew it up. Bogut is a legit center and a core guy when healthy but not a franchise guy.

If Nerlens Noel is the top pick I think he will be a core guy like Smith or Bogut but maybe not a franchise guy.

If Noel turns into a core guy or maybe even an all star I don’t think you could ever call him a bust because the expectations aren’t that
high. He just has to be a lot better than Kandi Man and Kwame.

[festar35Participant]

5th pick had some good picks,

Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen, Mitch Richmond, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Demarcus Cousins

[nick5354Participant]

I said it on the other forum about griffin, but he is not a Franchise player. I think he can be, but with his one dimensional game won;t win you a championship or take you to the finals.

[bigheavyParticipant]

There isn’t a franchise player in every draft sometimes you just have to just draft for team needs. It usually pays off because its hit or miss with the number one pick.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

This was my take on the whole "franchise player" thing by draft standards:

http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/drafting-franchise-players

Their really isn’t a franchise player in every draft, plus no guarantee that the first pick will be that player. You obviously hope that the player chosen first will be a major impact guy or an All-Star. Just seems that if you want a "superstar" or a player you can really build a contending team around, that is something quite rare.

I think giving Elton Brand a tag of "franchise player" is pretty generous, even with him being a multiple All-Star. To me, it comes down to helping your team compete along with production. Elton had one year on the Clippers where he came close to fitting that mold. Otherwise, I would say he does not fit the ideal of a franchise player. Blake Griffin and John Wall are still toss ups as well.

Ultimately, not every draft has a franchise player. In the 2013 draft, for instance, I think ultimately you just want to choose the best player available and hope he can be a solid contributor. Do not believe that this draft has a guy you want to build your franchise around, which is what I think a "franchise player" really is. If you want your team to compete, than beyond getting an incredibly balanced team, their are really only a handful of players in the league who would fit the "franchise player" billing. You need to temper expectations by the talent and depth of a draft.

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