I just read a comment similar to this:
"...this draft is so weak. Neither one of those guys are even remotely close to franchise players."
So I started wondering: Exactly how many number 1 picks turn out to be franchise players?
I will list them all since 95. Give my opinion (explain the ones that need it) and you all feel free to give your own.
1995 - Joe Smith - No, because he never averaged more than 19 points a game and never averaged double digit rebounds..
1996 - Allen Iverson - Yes
1997 - Tim Duncan - Yes
1998 - Michael Olowokandi - No
1999 - Elton Brand - Yes, because he was a 20-10 player for basically 9 years..
2000 - Kenyon Martin - No
2001 - Kwame Brown - No
2002 - Yao Ming - Yes (untill injury)
2003 - Lebron James - Yes
2004 - Dwight Howard - Yes
2005 - Andrew Bogut - No
2006 - Andrea Bargnani - No
2007 - Greg Oden - No (I know injuy was reason but regardless, answer is no.)
2008 - Derrick Rose - Yes
2009 - Blake Griffin - Yes
2010 - John Wall - Yes (Could be argued)
2011 - Kyrie Irving - Yes (Barring injury)
I dont think it would be fair to judge Davis right now.
Yes - 10
No - 7
So, about 59% of the time, you get a franchise player with the first pick.. It has been better in recent years but it seems to happen in groups..
What are your opinions??
i don't know exactly, but i'm gonna assume thats probably the highest % from any other pick. Yea you are gonna have busts but still a franchise player with the first pick is more likely than a franchise player with the 10th pick
I just looked at 2nd picks since 1995.. I see 1 sure fire, Durant.. Then there are guys that are very close like Lamarcus Aldridge and Mike Bibby.
3rd picks since 1995.. 6 sure fire guys. Jerry Stackhouse, Baron Davis, Pau Gasol, Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, and James Harden.. Then some maybe guys like Al Hortford and Chauncy Billups.
4th picks since 1995.. 3 sure fire guys. Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Russel Westbrook. Maybe guys: Rahseed Wallace, Marbury, Antwan Jamison, Tyreke Evans.
5th picks since 1995.. 7 sure fire guys. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Demarcus Cousins. Not really any maybe guys..
That looks right to me. Not as many franchise guys as you might think. A few busts. Joe Smith was pretty solid. Looked like a core guy on
the Warriors before they blew it up. Bogut is a legit center and a core guy when healthy but not a franchise guy.
If Nerlens Noel is the top pick I think he will be a core guy like Smith or Bogut but maybe not a franchise guy.
If Noel turns into a core guy or maybe even an all star I don't think you could ever call him a bust because the expectations aren't that
high. He just has to be a lot better than Kandi Man and Kwame.
This site has all the picks of last 20 years or so.
If you do the last 10 years including Anthony Davis who I put as a Yes.. it increases to 70% rate with 7 Yes and 3 No. I think recently after the addition of the college rule it has been more accurate of an indicator.
You cant say that Davis wont have a Greg Oden career.. I dont wish that on him or anyone but he has already shown to be a little injury prone.. You cant say yes about a guy that has only played 1 season.. Joe Smith was never much better than he was as a rookie..
5th pick had some good picks,
Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen, Mitch Richmond, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Demarcus Cousins
I said it on the other forum about griffin, but he is not a Franchise player. I think he can be, but with his one dimensional game won;t win you a championship or take you to the finals.
There isn't a franchise player in every draft sometimes you just have to just draft for team needs. It usually pays off because its hit or miss with the number one pick.
This was my take on the whole "franchise player" thing by draft standards:
Their really isn't a franchise player in every draft, plus no guarantee that the first pick will be that player. You obviously hope that the player chosen first will be a major impact guy or an All-Star. Just seems that if you want a "superstar" or a player you can really build a contending team around, that is something quite rare.
I think giving Elton Brand a tag of "franchise player" is pretty generous, even with him being a multiple All-Star. To me, it comes down to helping your team compete along with production. Elton had one year on the Clippers where he came close to fitting that mold. Otherwise, I would say he does not fit the ideal of a franchise player. Blake Griffin and John Wall are still toss ups as well.
Ultimately, not every draft has a franchise player. In the 2013 draft, for instance, I think ultimately you just want to choose the best player available and hope he can be a solid contributor. Do not believe that this draft has a guy you want to build your franchise around, which is what I think a "franchise player" really is. If you want your team to compete, than beyond getting an incredibly balanced team, their are really only a handful of players in the league who would fit the "franchise player" billing. You need to temper expectations by the talent and depth of a draft.