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Nerlens Noel

Anton123
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Nerlens Noel

What do you guys think of Nerlens Noel as an NBA player?

On one hand we have a very athletic kid with amazing defensive instincts that allow him not only to block loads of shots but also steal the ball at a great rate. Sort of a soft touch around the basket and great agility for a player of any size.

On the other hands we have a 206 pound almost Austin Daye-skinny kid that has had two serious knee injuries in the past three years. He has almost no real offensive skills = much less that Anthony Davis who he is often compared to.

Is Nerlens Noel really worth a top 3 pick? You get a guy who potentially might never be able to play a full season and will get pushed around by almost any big man (damn, at 206 pounds he can be pushed around by many forwards).

How is he a better prospect than, say, a guy like Alex Len? I haven't watched that many Kentucky games and maybe I'm missing something? I'd just like to know what the folks opinion on him here is.


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I don't think Noel will be

I don't think Noel will be the best player to come out of the draft. I'm not super concerned with 206 because I hear he's already back up to around 215 now that he's able to train a little harder and he's what 19? I know the older guys know here that you get your "man strength" in your early to mid 20's. I can easily picture Noel playing around 235 or so. That's not a hulking weight, but it's what Tyson Chandler has been playing at for years and since he's filled out he doesn' get thrown around.

I think the Larry Sanders comparisions are the most realistic, but Sanders, since he was a little older, had already begun to work on his jumper when he hit the league. Even without the injury I think Noel would have been about 2 full seasons away from potentially being a full time starter. Getting a guy who can give you 10/10/3 is a nice piece, but I don't think a healthy Noel would have been anymore of an exciting pick than any of the other top guys no one seems to be that thrilled about.

With the injury, I think he's a huge risk. Big guys are more injury prone and when you're dropping the 1st pick, I don't want a guy who could be out of the league in 4 or 5 years. I don't doubt Noel will be at least a very good level shot blocker, if not elite, and a rim protector, but I do doubt that this injury is an isolated incident. Maybe I'm skeptical of Greg Oden who seemed to open a pandora's box of injury problems after his first one surfaced, but I'd go Otto Porter if I were Cleveland. Pervis Ellison, Sam Bowie, and Greg Oden are viewed as busts, but it wasn't because they couldn't play, it's because they couldn't stay healthy.

AusBob
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Agree

I agree with most of your comments. I believe Noel would be a long term pick, a team that can allow him to develop and adapt to the pace and physicality of the NBA without asking too much from him in his first two years. Cant agree more with the fact that it will take Noel 2 season to become an effective player after his body fills out (L Sanders, D Gallinari M Conley Jr all players who require time to adjust to the league and all are doing just fine).

Noel will be the type of player that may never end up with 17/10/3 but I do believe his defensive ability will allow him to be played effectively by the right coach, of course, depending on which team selects him. if Cleveland wants to contend for the East they need a defensive big that protects the rim, 2014 draft will be loaded with quality wings.

Taking Noel with the 1st pick will draw many criticism, but looking at the talent pool of 2014, taking a step backwards may result in a bigger leap forward in the future for Cleveland.

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hes coming of an injury that

hes coming of an injury that predicates his whole game. The best part of his game was altering shots and being able to jump mulitple times for a block or rebound quickly. With the injury he might now be able to do that witch makes his best attribute medicore. Put that was NO low post game or NO mid range jump shot and NO ablity to make entry passes or pass out the post makes him a 2nd string center. He was also outplayed by Alex LEn in their matchup, If it was me I wouldnt take him unless hes back 98 percent and at least established a better outside shot or hook shot coming from the injury

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I feel like theres enough

I feel like theres enough people out there doubting Noel that they may end up being very wrong and Noel may very well recover from his injury and come into the NBA to have a Marcus Camby type career.

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I feel like theres enough

I feel like theres enough people out there doubting Noel that they may end up being very wrong and Noel may very well recover from his injury and come into the NBA to have a Marcus Camby type career.

The Scare Crow Rises
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I wouldn't touch Noel in the Top 5 and I'll explain why

Not only does his Acl injury coupled with his lack of ideal size and skill make him a project or role player at best in the NBA but I don't see any team in the Top 5 that absolutely needs a player like him

Cavs have Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejoe to provide defense, rebounds and energy, hell Tyler Zeller has better size and offensive skill as their 3rd big, and they could use some cap space on Pekovic or Al Jefferson if they really want another Bigman this year...

The Magic just draft Pf/C Andrew Nicholson and traded for F's Tobias Harris and Mo Harkless and found a steal at C in Nik Vucevic, why draft Noel ??? they still have Big Baby as well and should be getting some cap relief soon by way of Harrington, Turk and Nelson, why not wait out some contracts while developing talent and aquiring draft picks...

The Wizards have Nene, Okefor and Seraphin at Pf/C, Vessely and Singleton are also able to cover some smaller and quicker Pf's too so why draft a Noel??? Especially when they want players that can help them now, Wall isn't asking for a skinny shot blocker he wants a Stretch 4 to spread the D

The Bobcats/Hornets, smh, MJ has made bigger mistakes for sure, Kwame and Adam Morrison come to mind as historically bad picks and drafting Biyombo may be a recent misstep too, hard working Guards like Ben Mac, Olapido and Shabazz should be the targets here, Thomas and Biyombo already eat away at the soul of that teams defense why had a similar type of player in Noel???

The Phoenix Suns and their training staff are the best fit so far until I remind myself they still have Gortat, Scola, Beasley and The Morris twins on their roster, with no real scoring threat at Sg or Sf (Beasley needs to be moved and Dudley is a role player not a starter)
Again I think a Sg or Sf make far more sense if they can't trade Gortat for another young Center like Meyers Leonard in Portland. NOEL would love to drafted here obvious reasons, he'd get to heal with that training staff and doesn't have to play this year with Gortat and Scola on the team for 1 more year...

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Thompson is good, but not

Thompson is good, but not great. Cavs have no shot blocking presence and their defense is weak. Noel is a great presence inside the paint with his shot blocking ability and agility to move around for a 7 footer. Adding Noel would make sense. What happens when Varejao gets hurt again? Plus, Varejao is 31, he isn't going to be young forever. Cavs could use a future big man to tag along Tristan Thompson who's a 6"8 PF.

Cavs need size, and the only guys on that team with size are Varejao/Zeller...good players, but low in potential. Cavs finished 25th in the NBA in defense...how can you say they don't need a defensive minded player like Noel?

Big Baby isn't exactly what the Magic need but he's a good veteran to have along the young players in Orlando, Andrew Nicholson is young and can score, but he's defensively weak. Vucevic isn't exactly a defensive enforce either, nor is Al Harrington.

Orlando finished 26th in blocks in NBA....bottom 5 in defense...why don't they need Nerlens Noel again? Ah right, Hedo, Al, Tobias are going to fix up their defensive woes at PF, while Big Baby and Vucevic hold it down. Glen Davis is a good post defender but Magic need a shot blocker and rim protector to keep guards honest.

Vesley is bust.
Nene and Okafor are injury prone C+ level players, when they're healthy they're very good but you have to understand they're in their 30s...they have about 3-4 good years left till they break down completely. They're good guys to have on the team for veteranship and awareness. Their experience will help Wall and Beal.

Serepahin averages 15 points per game on 46% FG shooting per 36 minutes...but within that 36 minute, he averages 5 fouls a game with 7 rebounds and only one block.

Not exactly center material, Seraphin is a talented 6"9 270lber who can score inside the paint...but not so efficiently. You want your big man shooting 50% and over.
Kevin's defense and rebounding is poor and below average.

Why should Wizards settle and put their future on him when it clearly isn't his speciality and miss out on a guy who's speciality is defense and rebounding?

It seems like you haven't done your research on these teams.

Noel is probably a top 3 big man in this draft...Charlotte's series of big men go like Biyombo(C-), Mullens(D+), Haywood(D+), Thomas(D) and Jeff Adrian(D-).... not even C level guys....the most raw set of big men you can find in the NBA. Biyombo has Ben Wallace potential but his awareness is very low, his skills are raw. This is a group of big men that will lead you to 55-60 loses in a season.

Your logic in Charlotte not needing a top 3 big man is flawed...Noel would automatically be the best big man in Charlotte if he gets drafted. Passing on him would be silly.

As for the Suns...
Scola is very old, almost 35.
Gortat is good, but is very unhappy with Phoneix and his role there. He wants more touches.
Marcus is more of a SF than PF, so is Beasley. Markieff is a PF who shoots 40% and doesn't bang inside.

Only inside presence Suns have is Gortat, Scola has become more of a mid range guy since he's age and lost his strength.

Noel would be a nice fit in Phoniex, but it'll be foolish for the Cavs, Magic, Wizards and New Hornets to pass on him. Those teams have average - below par front courts and they need help with talent.

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Noel would get eaten against

Noel would get eaten against any big NBA front court. Memphis for instance...

In addition, Noel's only position at the moment would be the 4, where he cant hit an open jump shot to stretch defenses out of the paint. He could play the 5 in some small ball situations but for the most part he will be a paint clogger. On defense, 4s and 5s will body him constantly negating his shot blocking and putting him into foul trouble. Players will learn quickly not to play Noel's game by trying to "out quick him" and use the power game instead.

When we factor in his lack of strength and injury history, it will likely be his mid-late 20's before he pulls it all together like Camby and Chandler have done.

Personally I'd pass on him anywhere in the top 5. I'm not saying it will shake out this way in the draft but I don't believe Noel is worthy of a top 5 pick even in such a weak draft.

While it is true that Kentucky fell apart after Noel went down, NBA talent is the best of the best and I don't believe Noel is anywhere near ready to contribute positively to a +.500 team.

ItsRainingNegs
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Noel

For those using the Maryland game as an example of how he will fair the rest of his career should not comment for the lack of any thought behind the statement. It was his first game. Of course he was bound to struggle with a big bodied NBA prospect in Len who had a year and an offseason in Maryland's renound strength and training program. He's 19 years old, a reclassified player who should just now be entering college. It's about projection and for those who are too near sighted to project him of course he doesn't look like a number one pick. The ACL injury coupled with his leg injury in high school would scare off anyone willing to invest big money in him. But his projectable ceiling is higher than any other player in this draft. He's an aggressive player who actively seeks to block shots and feeds off of each one. He can defend effectively out to the perimeter and plays lanes extremely well which shows in his steals column. People are so worried hell get bullied down low in a half court offense which is ridiculous. The NBA is moving away from traditional half court/full court offenses. Sure center's like Marc Gasol and Roy Hibbert could give him problems but they are a minority, and to say his athleticism and ability would be negated by their size isn't projectable at this point. He is an aggressive rebounder as well, though he's not a natural rebounder like other greats before him. Offensively his is raw. His ceiling offensively is where I think his player comparison lies. What stands out about him to me is his mentality. He's the opposite of a soft basketball player. He wants to be the best player on the court, he wants to dominate the opposing team, he has the drive to be a champion. You can't say that about every player, and you definitely can't say that about some of the players that have been young stars recently (LeBron, Dwight, Melo to name a few). They are great, they have dominated, but none of them has shown that it factor in terms of a competitor. You know exactly what I'm talking about too. If you don't think he's going to spend the next 5 years adding to his frame, you're wrong. If you don't think he's going to spend the time to keep his body healthy, you're wrong. If you don't think he'll develop his offensive game, you're also wrong.

I think his skill set is most similar, by far, to Dwight Howard. I think Noel can dominate a game defensively at the pro level once he's ready. I think he'll develop his offensive game to about the same as Dwight has, though I thought around 09-10 Howard was about to take off offensively. Their attitudes are different on the court though. Noel's got "it." The type of it that draws other great players. The type of it that can anchor a championship team.

The type of it that will make Kyrie stay in Cleveland.

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