Give or take, but these are some low seeded teams I wouldn't want to face:
Villanova- 20-13 record and weird loses to teams like Columbia(Loss by 18) and Alabama(Loss by 22) most teams wouldn't fear them, but on the flip side, beating Louisville and Syracuse back to back while both teams were ranked #1 should cause some concern and defeating #5 Georgetown by ten a week and a half ago also raises some eyebrows.
Minnesota- 20-13 record and loses to Northwestern,Nebraska, and Iowa(loss by 21) would have you overlooking this team, but they also raise eyebrows with big wins over #1 Indiana(at the time), #9Michigan State, and #18Wisconsin, 3 teams that some feel has a good chance to win it all, also playing in the tough B10 doesn't hurt either.
South Dakota State- 25-9 record in the Summit League isn't too much to get excited about, but Nate Wolters is, he was the fourth leading scorer in the country(22.7 PPG) and also averaged 5boards and 5assist as well, his 53 point scoring barrage over IPFW heated his name up around the country. Wolters is the type of player at the college level, to where if he gets hot and can get his teammates to feed off him, SDSU could be a problem in the tourney...ala Stephen Curry(Davidson). Wolters isn't as good as Steph, but he could have the same type of impact.
Missouri- 23-10 record in a down year in the SEC according to many, but Missouri is a very talented team, having 6 players who average double figures and being the secound best rebounding team in the country and you have yourself a pretty tough team come march, Missouri's problem is they don't know how to close out games, it's all on them if they can put it together and win or be a one and done type of team.
Those are a few teams, feel free to add more.
I don't know if their seed is low enough but I'd have to say Creighton (7). Doug McDermott is a cold-blooded assassin who is impossible to defend plus Creighton is 1st in FG% and 1st in 3 point FG%. Grant Gibbs is an excellent facilitator at the point at 6'5 and Creighton hung 84 on a neutral floor over an elite defense in Wisconsin.
If Creighton wants to beat Duke, though, 5th year senior Echenique has to show up and bang with Mason Plumlee. Echenique has been far too inconsistent for his skill level both offensively and attacking the glass.
It's also important to note that they are ranked in the top 15 in both BPI and KenPom.
My other dangerous low seed is Pitt. Pitt inexplicably received an 8 seed when they really deserved a 4 or a 5. They have the best depth in the country and 2 quality playmakers at the point. They have multiple weapons on the wing and legit size and athleticism down low between Steven Adams and Talib Zanna. Pitt beat Syracuse and beat Georgetown by 28 in Georgetown's house. All of their losses are to solid Big East competition with the exception of Rutgers. Pitt has the kind of bigs who can neutralize Olynyk and Harris.
Pitt is ranked #15 in the BPI, #7 in KenPom, and #10 in Sagarin, rendering their 8-seed downright preposterous.
and thats why i got them both making it to the sweet sixteen
I have Minnesota in the Sweet 16. Two of my favorite "sleeper" type teams are Wisconsin and Ole Miss but they are playing each
other in the first round. I am taking ole miss but whoever wins can really do some damage.
Memphis is another sleeper pick. Not enough scoring inside but depth at guard, athleticism, a few solid bigs, and DJ Stephens.
They are one of my sleeper teams in the Sweet 16. If Joe Jackson can channel his inner Isiah Thomas in Detroit, the Tigers will do
Davidson, Boise state and Iowa state. All of them like to shoot the 3 ball. If they get hot they can beat anyone..
In filling out my bracket I took into account defense, rebounding and 3 point shooting. If a team gets hot from 3, they wont lose. If a team destroys offensive rebounding(much like a Minnesota) they won't lose( only if they are able to capitilize on the offensive rebounds). And defense as well. A team like VCU could be trouble (much like they have been the last 3 years).
I am not saying they will make a run but I could see a team like Illinois doing well in the tournament. Now the way they have played I could also see them going out in the first round.
They have senior guards. They can shoot the 3. They started the season well. They got beat up in the Big 10. I think they were not physical enough to bang with the more physical teams in the league. If the first few rounds of the NCAA tournament are called a little different then the Big 10 season and Big 10 tournament then I think that would be an advantage to Illinois. I think their makeup is more suited for this tournament.
I also have New Mexico St in Sweet 16
I don't want to sound biased cuz my cousin plays for them but I think Florida Gulf Coast has a chance to pull a Norfolk State last year and beat a number 2 in Georgetown. They matchup well with Georgetown. I'm not saying they will win, but it will be closer than people think. They beat Miami earlier this year and I was at the game when they played Duke. They had a a good lead on Duke at one point and Cameron Indoor was dead silent. But foule trouble lost them the lead and they were eventually blown out. I also like Minnesota as well as Boise State to upset some brackets as well.
Bucknell. Mike Muscala is the best big-man in college right now. There I said it.