My STATISTICAL rankings for eligible college players for the 2009 NBA Draft
Hi...first post here. Below is a post I made in another forum last year before the 2008 draft....it will explain how to view the rankings....as well as show my 2008 rankings. The bottom of this post will show my 2009 rankings. Please read the explanation before you take the rankings into account. Thanks for reading!
"Well, I am back this year with the 2008 rankings. Remember, that these are NOT meant to rank players in the order that they should or will be drafted at all. It is simply a way to help determine who is over or under-valued in any particular season's draft. For instance, Jason Thompson, Reggie Williams, George Hill and Aleks Maric are ranked very highly, yet none of them but Thompson are projected 1st round picks. Maric is not even projected as a 2nd round pick in most mock drafts.
Projected 1st round picks (including some projected lottery picks) that don't show up in the top 60 of my statistical rankings include Bayless, Westbrook, Koufos, Hickson, D.Jordan, A.Randolph, McGee, etc.
Again, these rankings are NOT to be taken literally...I know Reggie Williams is not the 4th best player in this draft. Not even close. And I know Bayless, Westbrook and A.Randolph should and will be 1st round picks...most likely lottery picks. What the rankings are for is to compare them to the consensus mock drafts out there and look for big discrepancies. If there are big discrepancies, then that would conclude who my rankings determine may be under or overvalued.
In other words, the team that's looking at Reggie Williams or Aleks Maric as a free agent invitee may look at this or a similar analysis and decide to use a 2nd round pick on one of them.
In contrast the team with the 4th pick that's considering Bayless or Westbrook may take a look at such an analysis and decide to trade down a couple of spots to try and take them there.
That's all it is. I have fun with it and although it's far from perfect, I find that it is correct many more times than it is incorrect in helping to identify a few "sleepers" and "busts" each year.
With that...here is this year's top 60 statististically ranked (by me) NCAA Div. 1 draft eligible players:
1. Michael Beasley Kansas St.
2. Kevin Love UCLA
3. Jason Thompson Rider
4. Reggie Williams VMI
5. Brook Lopez Stanford
6. George Hill IUPUI
7. Aleks Maric Nebraska
8. AZ Reid High Point
9. Ryan Anderson California
10. Richard Hendrix Alabama
11. D.J. White Indiana
12. Mario Chalmers Kansas
13. J.R. Giddens New Mexico
14. Kyle Hines UNC Greensboro
15. Derrick Rose Memphis
16. Maarty Leunen Oregon
17. Charron Fisher Niagara
18. Darrell Arthur Kansas
19. Tony Lee Robert Morris
20. Pat Calathes St. Joseph's
21. Courtney Lee Western Kentucky
22. Roy Hibbert Georgetown
23. Jason Richards Davidson
24. Mike Green Butler
25. Marreese Speights Florida
26. Joey Dorsey Memphis
27. D.J. Augustin Texas
28. Jamont Gordon Mississippi St.
29. Gary Forbes Massachusetts
30. Joe Alexander West Virginia
31. Reggie Larry Boise St.
32. Shawn James Duquesne
33. Will Thomas George Mason
34. Rob McKiver Houston
35. Chris Douglas-Roberts Memphis
36. Leon Williams Ohio U.
37. Darnell Jackson Kansas
38. Bryant Dunston Fordham
39. Ryan Bright Sam Houston St.
40. Donta Greene Syracuse
41. Sean Singletary Virginia
42. James Gist Maryland
43. Dwayne Curtis Mississippi
44. Brandon Rush Kansas
45. Jaycee Carroll Utah St.
46. O.J. Mayo USC
47. Shan Foster Vanderbilt
48. Mark Tyndale Temple
49. Rob Kurz Notre Dame
50. Haminn Quaintance Kent St.
51. Thomas Sanders Gardner-Webb
52. DeMarcus Nelson Duke
53. Kyle Weaver Washington St.
54. Geary Claxton Penn St.
55. Jamar Butler Ohio St.
56. Charles Rhodes Mississippi St.
57. Eric Coleman Northern Iowa
58. Bo McCalebb New Orleans
59. David Padgett Louisville
60. Kyle Landry Northern Arizona
Again, PLEASE understand the concept here. I realize Jaycee Carroll is ranked one spot ahead of O.J. Mayo. The only analysis here is purely STATISTICAL...just simple numbers crunching. It is not intended at all to say that Carroll is a better basketball player or better athlete or better prospect than Mayo. That would be utterly ridiculous. All it is meant to say is that perhaps Mayo may be a bit over-rated based on his average mock draft position. It's very similar to some of the statistical analysis posted elsewhere on draft forums...with a similar intended purpose."
And here are the 2009 statistical rankings....again based purely on STATS, which is only ONE way to evaluate college players for the NBA draft...but when combined with other non-statistical evaluations can be a very effective tool:
1. Blake Griffin Oklahoma
2. DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh
3. Stephen Curry Davidson
4. Luke Harangody Notre Dame
5. Ty Lawson North Carolina
6. Hasheem Thabeet Connecticut
7. Terrence Williams Louisville
8. Lester Hudson Tenn.-Martin
9. Tyler Hansbrough North Carolina
10. John Bryant Santa Clara
11. DeMarre Carroll Missouri
12. Nick Calathes Florida
13. Jordan Hill Arizona
14. Danny Green North Carolina
15. James Johnson Wake Forest
16. Tyreke Evans Memphis
17. Earl Clark Louisville
18. Luke Nevill Utah
19. Eric Maynor VCU
20. James Harden Arizona St.
21. Jon Brockman Washington
22. Ben Woodside North Dakota St.
23. Ahmad Nivins St. Joseph's
24. Chavis Holmes VMI
25. Aaron Jackson Duquesne
26. David Holston Chicago St.
27. Lee Cummard BYU
28. Jeff Adrien Connecticut
29. Taj Gibson USC
30. Travis Holmes VMI
31. Jerel McNeal Marquette
32. Wayne Ellington North Carolina
33. Marcus Thornton LSU
34. Damion James Texas
35. Alex Renfroe Belmont
36. Sam Young Pittsburgh
37. Tony Gaffney Massachusetts
38. Greivis Vasquez Maryland
39. Leo Lyons Missouri
40. Robert Dozier Memphis
41. Chase Budinger Arizona
42. Jermaine Taylor Central Florida
43. Diamon Simpson St. Mary's
44. Dante Cunningham Villanova
45. Goran Suton Michigan St.
46 Jonathan Tavernari BYU
47 Jonny Flynn Syracuse
48 Brett Winkelman North Dakota St.
49 Wesley Matthews Marquette
50 Gerald Henderson Duke
51 Austin Daye Gonzaga
52 Toney Douglas Florida St.
53 Jeff Pendergraph Arizona St.
54 Paul Harris Syracuse
55 Curtis Jerrells Baylor
56 Jeff Teague Wake Forest
57 Dionte Christmas Temple
58. Jeremy Chappell Robert Morris
59 Levance Fields Pittsburgh
60 A.D. Vasallo Virginia Tech
61 Byron Eaton Oklahoma St.
62 A.J. Price Connecticut
63. Devan Downey South Carolina
64. Jodie Meeks Kentucky
65. Tyrese Rice Boston College
That is an interesting way to look at the draft.
John Bryant ranked #10 hahahahhahaahhhahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhahaha
kind of stats did you use to get these rankings
I assign particular values to each stat, such as: Pts, Reb. Ast. Stl. Blk. and 3's made. Also subtract for TO's, FG's missed (including 3's) and FT's missed. I do take avg's per 40 minutes, team winning percentage and strength of schedule into consideration as well.
And again, stats are only one way to evaluate players. There are likely some "undraftable" players on this list. It's just meant to determine who might be over or undervalued.
Is this using the per rankings, because I'm sure everyone on this website can agree with me that John Bryant Blows.
You have to factor competetion into this and not just base it one numbers.
How much better is Stephen Curry at 3 then Toney Douglass and Johnny Flynn respectivley at 52,47 who argurably play in the two best conferences of College Basketball.
I've love to see how this was evaluated.
This still doesn't justify that Stephen Curry is the 3rd best player coming out of college basketball this year.
No, auber, please read what I'm saying. I'm saying his STATISTICS were the 3rd best in the nation according to my rankings....not that he will be the 3rd best NBA player in this class. Again, this ranking is based solely on stats....no other factors.
Here is the list for the 2007 draft and another explanatory post that I made around that time:
1) Kevin Durant Texas 42.62
2) Nick Fazekas Nevada 40.05
3) Greg Oden Ohio St. 37.44
4) Al Horford Florida 37.42
5) Joakim Noah Florida 35.82
6) Stephane Lasme Massachusetts 33.74
7) Aaron Gray Pittsburgh 32.66
8) Herbert Hill Providence 32.22
9) Jared Dudley Boston College 32.04
10) Glen Davis LSU 31.97
11) Julian Wright Kansas 31.77
12) Jared Jordan Marist 31.67
13) Reggie Williams VMI 31.64
14) Dominic McGuire Fresno St. 31.49
15) Josh McRoberts Duke 31.41
16) Sean Williams Boston College 31.03
17) Al Thornton Florida St. 30.63
18) Rodney Stuckey Eastern Wash. 30.36
19) Jeff Green Georgetown 30.15
20) Mike Conley, Jr. Ohio St. 30.08
21) Brandan Wright North Carolina 30.05
22) Jason Smith Colorado St. 29.96
23) Mark Zoller Pennsylvania 29.83
24) Carl Landry Purdue 29.40
25) Aaron Brooks Oregon 29.29
26) Caleb Green Oral Roberts 29.03
27) Andre Smith North Dakota St. 28.90
28) Corey Brewer Florida 28.76
29) Matt Lojeski Hawaii 28.71
30) Morris Almond Rice 28.41
31) Acie Law Texas A&M 28.25
32) Ivan Radenovic Arizona 28.14
33) Curtis Sumpter Villanova 28.11
34) Derrick Byars Vanderbilt 28.09
35) Ekene Ibekwe Maryland 28.08
36) Grant Stout Northern Iowa 28.03
37) Jermareo Davidson Alabama 27.87
38) Mario Boggan Okla. St. 27.77
39) Deshaun Wood Wright St. 27.76
40) Demetrius Nichols Syracuse 27.74
41) Javaris Crittenton Georgia Tech 27.70
42) Marcus Williams Arizona 27.61
43) Alando Tucker Wisconsin 27.42
44) D.J. Strawberry Maryland 27.14
45) Ruben Boykin, Jr. Northern Arizona 27.10
46) Adam Haluska Iowa 27.06
47) Mustafa Shakur Arizona 27.03
48) Ibrahim Jaaber Pennsylvania 27.02
49) Chaz Crawford Drexel 26.87
50) Jamon Gordon Virginia Tech 26.83
51) Gary Neal Towson 26.79
52) Jacob Burtschi Air Force 26.78
53) Jamar Wilson Albany 26.56
54) Russell Carter Notre Dame 26.53
55) Brandon Wallace South Carolina 26.52
56) D.J. Thompson Appalachian St. 26.39
57) Romeo Travis Akron 26.36
58) Blake Schilb Loyola-Ill. 26.24
59) Reyshawn Terry North Carolina 26.19
60) Darryl Watkins Syracuse 26.14
The first two things that jump out at me when analyzing these ratings are always:
1) The complete absence of certain players that are projected lottery or near-lottery picks from the rankings. These players for 2007 include: Spencer Hawes, Nick Young and Thaddeus Young. Historically, this usually proves that these types of players are over-valued by GM's/mock draft sites.
2) The players who rank in the top 10 or so of my statistical formula rankings that are not projected to be high picks (sometimes they are listed as second rounders or not even being drafted...as in the cases of Brad Miller and Paul Millsap mentioned in my original post). Some examples this year include: Nick Fazekas, Stephane Lasme, Aaron Gray, Herbert Hill, Jared Dudley and Glen Davis. This tells me that, historically, players like this tend to be under-valued and some will turn out to be second round steals.
Some more observations:
There are a few projected lottery picks that appear to be SLIGHTLY over-valued when compared to the Mantis Sports statistical analysis formula. These include: Mike Conley, Jeff Green, Brandan Wright, Corey Brewer and Acie Law. This, of course, does not mean that picking these players where they are projected would be a waste by any stretch. It just means that their production MIGHT be a little disappointing relative to where they are projected to be picked, especially early on.
There are others that appear to be SLIGHTLY under-valued. This means that the teams that select them with what will probably be a second round pick will likely be pleasantly surprised. These players include: Dominic McGuire, Carl Landry, Aaron Brooks, Ivan Radenovic and Curtis Sumpter.
Then there are those who don't show on many draft radar screens at all, if any, who get high rankings in the formula. This means that although these players are not likely to be drafted at all, they could very well latch on as a rookie free agent or after some experience in the D-League or overseas and become a contributor. At the very least, they should have good success on foreign soil. These players typically come from small Div. I programs. One of the guys that fit this profile last year was Juan Jose Barea from Northeastern, who played very well the few times he was given minutes by the Mavericks last season. This year's "Who's he?" list includes: Jared Jordan from Marist (although he's getting a bit of pub lately), Reggie Williams from VMI, Mark Zoller from Penn, Andre Smith from North Dakota St. and Matt Lojeski from Hawaii.
Hope you enjoyed. I don't consider myself an expert, by any means. Just wanted to share what I have found to be just one useful tool in helping to evaluate college players' pro potential.
Thanks for posting I enjoyed taking a look at this even though some of these rankings are just absolutely crazy. I still can't get over John Bryant, Nivins, & Nevill all being in the top 25. I think you might need to adjust your formula and factor in level of competition a little more.
proves your stats dont mean anything when assuming there professional career. Maybe you should move some things in your formula around.
And the 2006 rankings for good measure as well as some comments posted approx. 1 year after I originally published them.
Again, please consider that these rankings are SOLELY statistical and no other factors are used.
1. Shelden Williams Duke
2. Paul Millsap La. Tech
3. Tyrus Thomas LSU
4. Brandon Roy Washington
5. Randy Foye Villanova
6. J.J. Redick Duke
7. P.J. Tucker Texas
8. Adam Morrison Gonzaga
9. Quincy Douby Rutgers
10. J.P. Batista Gonzaga
11. Juan Jose Barea Northeastern
12. Craig Smith Boston Coll.
13. Rudy Gay U. Conn.
14. Marcus Williams U. Conn.
15. Patrick O' Bryant Bradley
16. LaMarcus Aldridge Texas
17. Yemi Nicholson Denver
18. Erick Hicks Cincinnati
19. Paul Davis Michigan St.
20. Ronnie Brewer Arkansas
21. Marcus Slaughter San Diego St.
22. Shawne Williams Memphis
23. Justin Williams Wyoming
24. Curtis Stinson Iowa St.
25. Chris Quinn Notre Dame
26. Mike Gansey West Virginia
27. James Augustine Illinois
28. Brian Thornton Xavier
29. Rodney Carney Memphis
30. Kevin Pittsnogle West Virginia
31. Leon Powe California
32. Danilo Pinnock George Wash.
33. Daniel Horton Michigan
34. Hassan Adams Arizona
35. Christian Maraker Pacific (returned to school)
36. Curtis Withers Charlotte
37. Rajon Rondo Kentucky
38. Chris McCray Maryland
39. Gerry McNamara Syracuse
40. Carl Krauser Pittsburgh
41. Taquan Dean Louisville
42. David Noel North Carolina
43. Hilton Armstrong U. Conn.
44. Steve Novak Marquette
45. Renaldo Balkman South Carolina
46. Cedric Simmons N.C. State
47. Kyle Lowry Villanova
48. Steven Smith LaSalle
49. Brad Buckman Texas
50. Kenny Adeleke Hartford
51. Dee Brown Illinois
52. Mardy Collins Temple
53. Will Blalock Iowa St.
54. Matt Haryasz Stanford
55. Terence Dials Ohio St.
56. Allan Ray Villanova
57. Marco Killingsworth Indiana
58. Mike Hall George Washington
59. Eric Williams Wake Forest
60. Robert Hite Miami (FL)
Players who did not make these rankings who were 1st round picks: Josh Boone, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Maurice Ager.
Boone did pretty well when given minutes, but the rest of this group, at least so far, looks like they were overvalued.
Players who rated high in these rankings and were 2nd round picks or undrafted include: Paul Millsap, Craig Smith and Juan Jose Barea.
Millsap and Smith played quite well and wound up in their respective teams' rotations. Barea, who went undrafted, languished on the bench for the vast majority of the season, but looked very good in the last few games of the year, in which he was given extended minutes. These three players already appear to have been quite undervalued in last year's draft.
From your 2007 rankings I believe 19 players out of your top 25 are still in the NBA so that is a pretty descent %
Looks like 16 out your top 25 are still in the league from 2006. I may be off on a couple players. Not bad.
The 2006 rankings just prove how bad that class was with Sheldon Williams was. His NBA days are over and will start up his own Daddy Day Care living off the money his wife makes over him.
Mantis you have to figure int competetion to make these stats revelant.
"Daddy Day Care" haha I got to agree with you on that one. Sheldon is done. His wife could beat him one on one no doubt ha.
Well, as far as Bryant, Nivins and Nevill....of course they should not be 1st round picks. And they probably won't be 2nd round picks either. But it would not surprise me if one or more of them makes a team as 14th or 15th man as a free agent invitee.
Statistics, of course, are hardly everything. But look at a guy like Paul Millsap, who is now a solid NBA starter rating very well in this formula based on his college stats at a small school with little competition. If I recall correctly, he was a mid 2nd round pick. That's all this is mainly for....to identify some sleepers that rate very well statistically that MIGHT be able to translate that college statistical ability into a decent NBA career. And of course, they have to have the physical tools as well....it will be obvious to scouts and GM's if they don't.
Every year there's a guy like Millsap, Brad Miller, Big Baby, JJ Barea, etc., that did extremely well statistically in college, but went undrafted or was taken in the 2nd round....and then wound up being a major contributor for their NBA team. So, stats DO mean something, but are obviously just ONE factor in determining who has pro potential. Like I said, the player has to have the physical ability as well as just putting up good stats in college. This formula just crunches numbers....rating who actually has physical ability is a whole different thing. But when you find someone who has both the stats AND the physical ability, the chances of their success are high.
And I do think it's somewhat obvious that some teams are using statistical analysis as a fairly big part of their draft process of late. Just look at guys like Jason Thompson and George Hill from last year's draft. Both from very small Div. 1 schools with little competition....but both putting up huge numbers in college and both going higher than just about any mock draft had them going.....and both playing well when given time as rookies (esp. Thompson). Of course they both have the physical tools as well....again, stats hardly tell the whole story, but they do help to see who might be worthy of taking a look at.
Thats true there is a chance that Nivins or Nevill makes a team.
looking at some of these rankings. THis proves how different the college and pro games are.