share

My STATISTICAL rankings for eligible college players for the 2009 NBA Draft

The Mantis
Registered User
Joined: 06/11/2009
Posts: 54
Points: 7
Offline
My STATISTICAL rankings for eligible college players for the 2009 NBA Draft

Hi...first post here. Below is a post I made in another forum last year before the 2008 draft....it will explain how to view the rankings....as well as show my 2008 rankings. The bottom of this post will show my 2009 rankings. Please read the explanation before you take the rankings into account. Thanks for reading!

"Well, I am back this year with the 2008 rankings. Remember, that these are NOT meant to rank players in the order that they should or will be drafted at all. It is simply a way to help determine who is over or under-valued in any particular season's draft. For instance, Jason Thompson, Reggie Williams, George Hill and Aleks Maric are ranked very highly, yet none of them but Thompson are projected 1st round picks. Maric is not even projected as a 2nd round pick in most mock drafts.

Projected 1st round picks (including some projected lottery picks) that don't show up in the top 60 of my statistical rankings include Bayless, Westbrook, Koufos, Hickson, D.Jordan, A.Randolph, McGee, etc.

Again, these rankings are NOT to be taken literally...I know Reggie Williams is not the 4th best player in this draft. Not even close. And I know Bayless, Westbrook and A.Randolph should and will be 1st round picks...most likely lottery picks. What the rankings are for is to compare them to the consensus mock drafts out there and look for big discrepancies. If there are big discrepancies, then that would conclude who my rankings determine may be under or overvalued.

In other words, the team that's looking at Reggie Williams or Aleks Maric as a free agent invitee may look at this or a similar analysis and decide to use a 2nd round pick on one of them.

In contrast the team with the 4th pick that's considering Bayless or Westbrook may take a look at such an analysis and decide to trade down a couple of spots to try and take them there.

That's all it is. I have fun with it and although it's far from perfect, I find that it is correct many more times than it is incorrect in helping to identify a few "sleepers" and "busts" each year.

With that...here is this year's top 60 statististically ranked (by me) NCAA Div. 1 draft eligible players:

1. Michael Beasley Kansas St.

2. Kevin Love UCLA

3. Jason Thompson Rider

4. Reggie Williams VMI

5. Brook Lopez Stanford

6. George Hill IUPUI

7. Aleks Maric Nebraska

8. AZ Reid High Point

9. Ryan Anderson California

10. Richard Hendrix Alabama

11. D.J. White Indiana

12. Mario Chalmers Kansas

13. J.R. Giddens New Mexico

14. Kyle Hines UNC Greensboro

15. Derrick Rose Memphis

16. Maarty Leunen Oregon

17. Charron Fisher Niagara

18. Darrell Arthur Kansas

19. Tony Lee Robert Morris

20. Pat Calathes St. Joseph's

21. Courtney Lee Western Kentucky

22. Roy Hibbert Georgetown

23. Jason Richards Davidson

24. Mike Green Butler

25. Marreese Speights Florida

26. Joey Dorsey Memphis

27. D.J. Augustin Texas

28. Jamont Gordon Mississippi St.

29. Gary Forbes Massachusetts

30. Joe Alexander West Virginia

31. Reggie Larry Boise St.

32. Shawn James Duquesne

33. Will Thomas George Mason

34. Rob McKiver Houston

35. Chris Douglas-Roberts Memphis

36. Leon Williams Ohio U.

37. Darnell Jackson Kansas

38. Bryant Dunston Fordham

39. Ryan Bright Sam Houston St.

40. Donta Greene Syracuse

41. Sean Singletary Virginia

42. James Gist Maryland

43. Dwayne Curtis Mississippi

44. Brandon Rush Kansas

45. Jaycee Carroll Utah St.

46. O.J. Mayo USC

47. Shan Foster Vanderbilt

48. Mark Tyndale Temple

49. Rob Kurz Notre Dame

50. Haminn Quaintance Kent St.

51. Thomas Sanders Gardner-Webb

52. DeMarcus Nelson Duke

53. Kyle Weaver Washington St.

54. Geary Claxton Penn St.

55. Jamar Butler Ohio St.

56. Charles Rhodes Mississippi St.

57. Eric Coleman Northern Iowa

58. Bo McCalebb New Orleans

59. David Padgett Louisville

60. Kyle Landry Northern Arizona

Again, PLEASE understand the concept here. I realize Jaycee Carroll is ranked one spot ahead of O.J. Mayo. The only analysis here is purely STATISTICAL...just simple numbers crunching. It is not intended at all to say that Carroll is a better basketball player or better athlete or better prospect than Mayo. That would be utterly ridiculous. All it is meant to say is that perhaps Mayo may be a bit over-rated based on his average mock draft position. It's very similar to some of the statistical analysis posted elsewhere on draft forums...with a similar intended purpose."

And here are the 2009 statistical rankings....again based purely on STATS, which is only ONE way to evaluate college players for the NBA draft...but when combined with other non-statistical evaluations can be a very effective tool:

1. Blake Griffin Oklahoma

2. DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh

3. Stephen Curry Davidson

4. Luke Harangody Notre Dame

5. Ty Lawson North Carolina

6. Hasheem Thabeet Connecticut

7. Terrence Williams Louisville

8. Lester Hudson Tenn.-Martin

9. Tyler Hansbrough North Carolina

10. John Bryant Santa Clara

11. DeMarre Carroll Missouri

12. Nick Calathes Florida

13. Jordan Hill Arizona

14. Danny Green North Carolina

15. James Johnson Wake Forest

16. Tyreke Evans Memphis

17. Earl Clark Louisville

18. Luke Nevill Utah

19. Eric Maynor VCU

20. James Harden Arizona St.

21. Jon Brockman Washington

22. Ben Woodside North Dakota St.

23. Ahmad Nivins St. Joseph's

24. Chavis Holmes VMI

25. Aaron Jackson Duquesne

26. David Holston Chicago St.

27. Lee Cummard BYU

28. Jeff Adrien Connecticut

29. Taj Gibson USC

30. Travis Holmes VMI

31. Jerel McNeal Marquette

32. Wayne Ellington North Carolina

33. Marcus Thornton LSU

34. Damion James Texas

35. Alex Renfroe Belmont

36. Sam Young Pittsburgh

37. Tony Gaffney Massachusetts

38. Greivis Vasquez Maryland

39. Leo Lyons Missouri

40. Robert Dozier Memphis

41. Chase Budinger Arizona

42. Jermaine Taylor Central Florida

43. Diamon Simpson St. Mary's

44. Dante Cunningham Villanova

45. Goran Suton Michigan St.

46 Jonathan Tavernari BYU

47 Jonny Flynn Syracuse

48 Brett Winkelman North Dakota St.

49 Wesley Matthews Marquette

50 Gerald Henderson Duke

51 Austin Daye Gonzaga

52 Toney Douglas Florida St.

53 Jeff Pendergraph Arizona St.

54 Paul Harris Syracuse

55 Curtis Jerrells Baylor

56 Jeff Teague Wake Forest

57 Dionte Christmas Temple

58. Jeremy Chappell Robert Morris

59 Levance Fields Pittsburgh

60 A.D. Vasallo Virginia Tech

61 Byron Eaton Oklahoma St.

62 A.J. Price Connecticut

63. Devan Downey South Carolina

64. Jodie Meeks Kentucky

65. Tyrese Rice Boston College


Hale
Hale's picture
Registered User
Joined: 05/08/2009
Posts: 5956
Points: 12846
Offline
That is an interesting way

That is an interesting way to look at the draft.

gatorheels
gatorheels's picture
Registered User
Joined: 05/25/2009
Posts: 3232
Points: 1493
Offline
John Bryant ranked #10

John Bryant ranked #10 hahahahhahaahhhahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhahaha

interesting post

j1232e
Registered User
Joined: 05/26/2009
Posts: 1501
Points: 1144
Offline
what

kind of stats did you use to get these rankings

The Mantis
Registered User
Joined: 06/11/2009
Posts: 54
Points: 7
Offline
I assign particular values

I assign particular values to each stat, such as: Pts, Reb. Ast. Stl. Blk. and 3's made. Also subtract for TO's, FG's missed (including 3's) and FT's missed. I do take avg's per 40 minutes, team winning percentage and strength of schedule into consideration as well.

And again, stats are only one way to evaluate players. There are likely some "undraftable" players on this list. It's just meant to determine who might be over or undervalued.

auber
auber's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 789
Points: 63
Offline
Is this using the per

Is this using the per rankings, because I'm sure everyone on this website can agree with me that John Bryant Blows.

You have to factor competetion into this and not just base it one numbers.

How much better is Stephen Curry at 3 then Toney Douglass and Johnny Flynn respectivley at 52,47 who argurably play in the two best conferences of College Basketball.

I've love to see how this was evaluated.

auber
auber's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 789
Points: 63
Offline
This still doesn't justify

This still doesn't justify that Stephen Curry is the 3rd best player coming out of college basketball this year.

The Mantis
Registered User
Joined: 06/11/2009
Posts: 54
Points: 7
Offline
No, auber, please read what

No, auber, please read what I'm saying. I'm saying his STATISTICS were the 3rd best in the nation according to my rankings....not that he will be the 3rd best NBA player in this class. Again, this ranking is based solely on stats....no other factors.

The Mantis
Registered User
Joined: 06/11/2009
Posts: 54
Points: 7
Offline
Here is the list for the

Here is the list for the 2007 draft and another explanatory post that I made around that time:

1) Kevin Durant Texas 42.62

2) Nick Fazekas Nevada 40.05

3) Greg Oden Ohio St. 37.44

4) Al Horford Florida 37.42

5) Joakim Noah Florida 35.82

6) Stephane Lasme Massachusetts 33.74

7) Aaron Gray Pittsburgh 32.66

8) Herbert Hill Providence 32.22

9) Jared Dudley Boston College 32.04

10) Glen Davis LSU 31.97

11) Julian Wright Kansas 31.77

12) Jared Jordan Marist 31.67

13) Reggie Williams VMI 31.64

14) Dominic McGuire Fresno St. 31.49

15) Josh McRoberts Duke 31.41

16) Sean Williams Boston College 31.03

17) Al Thornton Florida St. 30.63

18) Rodney Stuckey Eastern Wash. 30.36

19) Jeff Green Georgetown 30.15

20) Mike Conley, Jr. Ohio St. 30.08

21) Brandan Wright North Carolina 30.05

22) Jason Smith Colorado St. 29.96

23) Mark Zoller Pennsylvania 29.83

24) Carl Landry Purdue 29.40

25) Aaron Brooks Oregon 29.29

26) Caleb Green Oral Roberts 29.03

27) Andre Smith North Dakota St. 28.90

28) Corey Brewer Florida 28.76

29) Matt Lojeski Hawaii 28.71

30) Morris Almond Rice 28.41

31) Acie Law Texas A&M 28.25

32) Ivan Radenovic Arizona 28.14

33) Curtis Sumpter Villanova 28.11

34) Derrick Byars Vanderbilt 28.09

35) Ekene Ibekwe Maryland 28.08

36) Grant Stout Northern Iowa 28.03

37) Jermareo Davidson Alabama 27.87

38) Mario Boggan Okla. St. 27.77

39) Deshaun Wood Wright St. 27.76

40) Demetrius Nichols Syracuse 27.74

41) Javaris Crittenton Georgia Tech 27.70

42) Marcus Williams Arizona 27.61

43) Alando Tucker Wisconsin 27.42

44) D.J. Strawberry Maryland 27.14

45) Ruben Boykin, Jr. Northern Arizona 27.10

46) Adam Haluska Iowa 27.06

47) Mustafa Shakur Arizona 27.03

48) Ibrahim Jaaber Pennsylvania 27.02

49) Chaz Crawford Drexel 26.87

50) Jamon Gordon Virginia Tech 26.83

51) Gary Neal Towson 26.79

52) Jacob Burtschi Air Force 26.78

53) Jamar Wilson Albany 26.56

54) Russell Carter Notre Dame 26.53

55) Brandon Wallace South Carolina 26.52

56) D.J. Thompson Appalachian St. 26.39

57) Romeo Travis Akron 26.36

58) Blake Schilb Loyola-Ill. 26.24

59) Reyshawn Terry North Carolina 26.19

60) Darryl Watkins Syracuse 26.14

The first two things that jump out at me when analyzing these ratings are always:

1) The complete absence of certain players that are projected lottery or near-lottery picks from the rankings. These players for 2007 include: Spencer Hawes, Nick Young and Thaddeus Young. Historically, this usually proves that these types of players are over-valued by GM's/mock draft sites.

2) The players who rank in the top 10 or so of my statistical formula rankings that are not projected to be high picks (sometimes they are listed as second rounders or not even being drafted...as in the cases of Brad Miller and Paul Millsap mentioned in my original post). Some examples this year include: Nick Fazekas, Stephane Lasme, Aaron Gray, Herbert Hill, Jared Dudley and Glen Davis. This tells me that, historically, players like this tend to be under-valued and some will turn out to be second round steals.

Some more observations:

There are a few projected lottery picks that appear to be SLIGHTLY over-valued when compared to the Mantis Sports statistical analysis formula. These include: Mike Conley, Jeff Green, Brandan Wright, Corey Brewer and Acie Law. This, of course, does not mean that picking these players where they are projected would be a waste by any stretch. It just means that their production MIGHT be a little disappointing relative to where they are projected to be picked, especially early on.

There are others that appear to be SLIGHTLY under-valued. This means that the teams that select them with what will probably be a second round pick will likely be pleasantly surprised. These players include: Dominic McGuire, Carl Landry, Aaron Brooks, Ivan Radenovic and Curtis Sumpter.

Then there are those who don't show on many draft radar screens at all, if any, who get high rankings in the formula. This means that although these players are not likely to be drafted at all, they could very well latch on as a rookie free agent or after some experience in the D-League or overseas and become a contributor. At the very least, they should have good success on foreign soil. These players typically come from small Div. I programs. One of the guys that fit this profile last year was Juan Jose Barea from Northeastern, who played very well the few times he was given minutes by the Mavericks last season. This year's "Who's he?" list includes: Jared Jordan from Marist (although he's getting a bit of pub lately), Reggie Williams from VMI, Mark Zoller from Penn, Andre Smith from North Dakota St. and Matt Lojeski from Hawaii.

Hope you enjoyed. I don't consider myself an expert, by any means. Just wanted to share what I have found to be just one useful tool in helping to evaluate college players' pro potential.

gatorheels
gatorheels's picture
Registered User
Joined: 05/25/2009
Posts: 3232
Points: 1493
Offline
Thanks for posting I enjoyed

Thanks for posting I enjoyed taking a look at this even though some of these rankings are just absolutely crazy. I still can't get over John Bryant, Nivins, & Nevill all being in the top 25. I think you might need to adjust your formula and factor in level of competition a little more.

j1232e
Registered User
Joined: 05/26/2009
Posts: 1501
Points: 1144
Offline
this formula

proves your stats dont mean anything when assuming there professional career. Maybe you should move some things in your formula around.

The Mantis
Registered User
Joined: 06/11/2009
Posts: 54
Points: 7
Offline
And the 2006 rankings for

And the 2006 rankings for good measure as well as some comments posted approx. 1 year after I originally published them.

Again, please consider that these rankings are SOLELY statistical and no other factors are used.

1. Shelden Williams Duke

2. Paul Millsap La. Tech

3. Tyrus Thomas LSU

4. Brandon Roy Washington

5. Randy Foye Villanova

6. J.J. Redick Duke

7. P.J. Tucker Texas

8. Adam Morrison Gonzaga

9. Quincy Douby Rutgers

10. J.P. Batista Gonzaga

11. Juan Jose Barea Northeastern

12. Craig Smith Boston Coll.

13. Rudy Gay U. Conn.

14. Marcus Williams U. Conn.

15. Patrick O' Bryant Bradley

16. LaMarcus Aldridge Texas

17. Yemi Nicholson Denver

18. Erick Hicks Cincinnati

19. Paul Davis Michigan St.

20. Ronnie Brewer Arkansas

21. Marcus Slaughter San Diego St.

22. Shawne Williams Memphis

23. Justin Williams Wyoming

24. Curtis Stinson Iowa St.

25. Chris Quinn Notre Dame

26. Mike Gansey West Virginia

27. James Augustine Illinois

28. Brian Thornton Xavier

29. Rodney Carney Memphis

30. Kevin Pittsnogle West Virginia

31. Leon Powe California

32. Danilo Pinnock George Wash.

33. Daniel Horton Michigan

34. Hassan Adams Arizona

35. Christian Maraker Pacific (returned to school)

36. Curtis Withers Charlotte

37. Rajon Rondo Kentucky

38. Chris McCray Maryland

39. Gerry McNamara Syracuse

40. Carl Krauser Pittsburgh

41. Taquan Dean Louisville

42. David Noel North Carolina

43. Hilton Armstrong U. Conn.

44. Steve Novak Marquette

45. Renaldo Balkman South Carolina

46. Cedric Simmons N.C. State

47. Kyle Lowry Villanova

48. Steven Smith LaSalle

49. Brad Buckman Texas

50. Kenny Adeleke Hartford

51. Dee Brown Illinois

52. Mardy Collins Temple

53. Will Blalock Iowa St.

54. Matt Haryasz Stanford

55. Terence Dials Ohio St.

56. Allan Ray Villanova

57. Marco Killingsworth Indiana

58. Mike Hall George Washington

59. Eric Williams Wake Forest

60. Robert Hite Miami (FL)

Players who did not make these rankings who were 1st round picks: Josh Boone, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Maurice Ager.

Boone did pretty well when given minutes, but the rest of this group, at least so far, looks like they were overvalued.

Players who rated high in these rankings and were 2nd round picks or undrafted include: Paul Millsap, Craig Smith and Juan Jose Barea.

Millsap and Smith played quite well and wound up in their respective teams' rotations. Barea, who went undrafted, languished on the bench for the vast majority of the season, but looked very good in the last few games of the year, in which he was given extended minutes. These three players already appear to have been quite undervalued in last year's draft.

gatorheels
gatorheels's picture
Registered User
Joined: 05/25/2009
Posts: 3232
Points: 1493
Offline
From your 2007 rankings I

From your 2007 rankings I believe 19 players out of your top 25 are still in the NBA so that is a pretty descent %
Looks like 16 out your top 25 are still in the league from 2006. I may be off on a couple players. Not bad.

auber
auber's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 789
Points: 63
Offline
The 2006 rankings just prove

The 2006 rankings just prove how bad that class was with Sheldon Williams was. His NBA days are over and will start up his own Daddy Day Care living off the money his wife makes over him.

Mantis you have to figure int competetion to make these stats revelant.

gatorheels
gatorheels's picture
Registered User
Joined: 05/25/2009
Posts: 3232
Points: 1493
Offline
"Daddy Day Care" haha I got

"Daddy Day Care" haha I got to agree with you on that one. Sheldon is done. His wife could beat him one on one no doubt ha.

The Mantis
Registered User
Joined: 06/11/2009
Posts: 54
Points: 7
Offline
Well, as far as Bryant,

Well, as far as Bryant, Nivins and Nevill....of course they should not be 1st round picks. And they probably won't be 2nd round picks either. But it would not surprise me if one or more of them makes a team as 14th or 15th man as a free agent invitee.

Statistics, of course, are hardly everything. But look at a guy like Paul Millsap, who is now a solid NBA starter rating very well in this formula based on his college stats at a small school with little competition. If I recall correctly, he was a mid 2nd round pick. That's all this is mainly for....to identify some sleepers that rate very well statistically that MIGHT be able to translate that college statistical ability into a decent NBA career. And of course, they have to have the physical tools as well....it will be obvious to scouts and GM's if they don't.

Every year there's a guy like Millsap, Brad Miller, Big Baby, JJ Barea, etc., that did extremely well statistically in college, but went undrafted or was taken in the 2nd round....and then wound up being a major contributor for their NBA team. So, stats DO mean something, but are obviously just ONE factor in determining who has pro potential. Like I said, the player has to have the physical ability as well as just putting up good stats in college. This formula just crunches numbers....rating who actually has physical ability is a whole different thing. But when you find someone who has both the stats AND the physical ability, the chances of their success are high.

And I do think it's somewhat obvious that some teams are using statistical analysis as a fairly big part of their draft process of late. Just look at guys like Jason Thompson and George Hill from last year's draft. Both from very small Div. 1 schools with little competition....but both putting up huge numbers in college and both going higher than just about any mock draft had them going.....and both playing well when given time as rookies (esp. Thompson). Of course they both have the physical tools as well....again, stats hardly tell the whole story, but they do help to see who might be worthy of taking a look at.

gatorheels
gatorheels's picture
Registered User
Joined: 05/25/2009
Posts: 3232
Points: 1493
Offline
Thats true there is a chance

Thats true there is a chance that Nivins or Nevill makes a team.

j1232e
Registered User
Joined: 05/26/2009
Posts: 1501
Points: 1144
Offline
interesting

looking at some of these rankings. THis proves how different the college and pro games are.

RSS: Syndicate content