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Most likely lottery result

SwatLakeCity
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Most likely lottery result

so this in response to the crazy lottery result that was posted earlier today. Yes, I admit that would be crazy but take a step back and look at the likelihood of that. What’s more likely to happen? This is:

  1. Atlanta, Memphis or Phoenix. Maybe you can put Dallas in that mix too but that’s as far as I would go for teams likely to have the top pick.
  2. Would probably be 3 of those 4 those teams
  3. Would probably 2 of those 4 teams and maybe you can put in Orlando or Sacramento here.
  4. Now we are getting to the left over teams.

Which means that even though LA Clippers, Bulls, Cavs and even the Knicks have a chance at getting one of the top 3 picks it’s not very likely. Yes, I know the Clippers have two picks but look where they are both at (12 and 13, not very good odds for either spot) The Cavs have a traded pick given to the them last year from Boston which they got from the Nets. So what, it’s still 10th, still not very good odds. So in the end, all 4 of those teams don’t have a very good chance at getting the top 3 picks because all 4 of those teams do not have as many ping pong balls as Atlanta, Memphis, Phoenix, Dallas and Orlando do.

I mean I know this is the site for crazy possibilities, but can we please get a little realistic here?


SwatLakeCity
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Here’s what I’m thinking...

So here is what I think will happen today:

  1. Phoenix, or Atlanta
  2. Memphis or Dallas or Atlanta
  3. Same as two but one less because one of those teams got the 2nd pick
  4. Again same as two but it’s the left over team that didn’t get the second or third pick
  5. Orlando
  6. Chicago

Ok, I think you know the rest here. Yeah this result looks typical and a little boring to the rest of you, but can we please grow up and get realistic here?

brodiejay
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Odds

The odds are literally in the order they're stated on this site. I think that previous post was just referring to the fact that it IS still a lottery and anything can happen.

Everybody knows what will happen if all picks follow the probability percentages. I think the thing we've all learned over the years is that the only predictable thing about the lottery is that it is predictably unpredictable.

Pretty sure that post was based on the randomizer on the 'Tankathon' website. I love using the draft generator there because every so often.... just like in real life.... it throws up some crazy results.

It's a lottery and by definition alone, literally any of the 14 teams can win. All it takes is ONE number combination.

I forget what year it was (maybe 1993) but the Magic won with like a 1.5% chance. Chicago winning the D-Rose sweepstakes was less than 2%. Pretty sure Cleveland won with less than a 2% chance to draft Wiggins. ... and that was after winning it the year before!

Crazy things can, and DO, happen.

SwatLakeCity
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You're right, but can we keep 'Tankathon' on the back burner?

Ok I get what you are saying, brodiejay, and you're right. Anything can happen, the lottery is predictably unpredictable. I agree with that, but can we just keep whatever random, weird, crazy results we get from the 'Tankathon' simulation on the back burner until it actually does happen? I mean is getting realistic really a bad thing?

Thenilonator
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You come across as someone

You come across as someone who has lost half their pay check gambling on the actual lottery every week for no results. Lighten up bro! To ask people to “grow up” because they have a prediction that goes against the most probable outcome is ridiculous.

Choppy
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OP

Thing is, if Clippers hit the top 3 on pick 12, it goes back to Detroit.

The Goat
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Looking at the teams, i think

Looking at the teams, i think the majority would pick Ayton first unless i am seriously underestimating love for others and im reading this site too much.

The ones that wont - Clips, Pistons, Nugs, Sixers, Griz

Choppy
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Those 5 that won't still

Those 5 that won't still probably draft him first and trade down for assets. Pistons would probably draft Ayton then try and flip him for a high level wing for example.

Memphis Madness
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I think the Grizzlies get the

I think the Grizzlies get the 3rd pick.

Although I just wanna get Bamba.

If he is not there, then it doesn't really matter to me -- although I think Collin Sexton is the only alpha perimeter guy in the draft.

Mikal Bridges can be a high level 3 and D role player type -- somewhere between prime Ron Harper combined with Prime Scottie Pippen (or a poor man's version of that).

I want this lotto to be over with.

Driving me NUTS.

I might have Mitchell Robinson, Robert Williams III, AND Donte Inferno in my top 10 by the end of the week.

joe2324
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the worst team has the lowest chance

as the worst team in the NBA, the knicks currently stand a 1.65% chance of getting the number 1 pick. This team is top 5 worst even Porzingins didn't get hurt.

brodiejay
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Well there we go. Atlanta and

Well there we go. Atlanta and Sacramento move into the top 3!

Not as crazy as the Cavs, Sixers or Knicks getting number one, but still shook up the probability.

SwatLakeCity
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Crazy things have happened before, yes, but...

I dont want to sound like Ive lost my fame and fortune in Vegas and now I'm bitter because of it. All I am asking is if we can just be realistic. When have ever seen a team with the 12th or 13 best chance move into the top 3? Never, and for a good reason. They had a 0.6 percent chance of getting the top pick, that's pretty small. I could see the Bulls or Kings getting the top 3 pick because even they have a small chance too, but it is bigger than the Clippers chance is, and crazy things have happened before, but never something as crazy as a team with a 0.6% chance getting the top pick or even moving into the top 3. So in that sense, is being realistic too much to ask? I don't think so.

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