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Mitch McGary Stock too high?

DefenseWinsChamps
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Mitch McGary Stock too high?

I just can't help shake the feeling that McGary has gotten hot in this tourney, but that his production is largely due to the success of the team and the play-making of Burke.

He has great hands and a natural feel for the game, but with such a small production sample, i am not sure i would take him with a first round pick.

What do you think?


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My only response is that he

My only response is that he does everything Plumblee does, except he's got better lateral quickness, and on the ball skills. Sounds like, in this draft, he warrants a pick 11-19 or so.

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I agree that the talent is at

I agree that the talent is at least on par with Plumlee, but Plumlee has proven his talents over a longer period of time. That is the struggle that i have with McGary. The talent is there to be an NBA starter, but he has been inconsistent this year and his sample size is smaller than most freshman.

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McGary's sample size is

McGary's sample size is small, but there is no way he's not a first round pick unless he has a medical red flag. There are a bunch of things about McGary teams don't tend to pass on...he's big standing 6'10", athletic, great hands, good passing which is great for a big guy, and he obviously has a good basketball IQ.

McGary does benefit from having good teammates but who doesn't. He looks like a lottery pick right now.

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Questions

As well as he has been playing in the tournament, there are still serious questions about his motivation. I mean, he didn't really make an effort to start losing weight until past the midway point in the season. He really did not have a great regular season, either. I think he will strike while the iron is hot and leave, but I think an extra year to prove he can work hard in the offseason and keep up his production for an entire season would really benefit him.

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McGary is an absolute

McGary is an absolute beast....if he played all season like he has the past 4-5 games, we'd be talking about top 5.

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I think one of the tv

I think one of the tv announcers said it perfectly when they compared him to David Lee.

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What we are all forgetting is

What we are all forgetting is at a point Mcgary was a top 10 player in his class and mock drafts had him in the lottery before he stepped into college. Now what he is doing is validating that hype he has earlier in his high school day after his hype had died down he is bringing it back up. I say he is a late teens pick the latest.

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His stock isn't too high. He

His stock isn't too high. He really has a very complete game and knows his role. Excellent hands, great touch, superb strength, runs the floor well, can pass, has some potential as a post scorer, good rebounder, has a nice stroke, and has very limited bust potential. I would rather him than Alex Len or Mason Plumlee.

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I hate bringing this up,

I hate bringing this up, because i know i will get neg for it, but his season averages are 6 ppg and 5.5 rebounds per game. That is not lottery numbers. We have to look at the body of work and abilities, and be balanced in assessing them.

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We are looking at the body of

We are looking at the body of work... Early in the season he had no confidence. Now he has confidence and is showing his true skillset. You're being absolutely ridiculous.

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LOL Wow ... Riduculous??? I

LOL Wow ... Riduculous??? I cannot prove that he will not continue to be this good. I just said that i had my doubts because of his struggles earlier this season and his small number of good games. Honestly, though, you cannot prove the statement that you just said, either. How can you prove that his true skillset is showing now, whereas it wasn't before? The only way to prove that is if he proves effective over a larger number of games.

Is he really a sure thing if he hasn't been sure this season? It just seems like he is a riskier pick than people are making him out to be.

This time every year, it seems like one player gets overhyped going into the draft because he put a few good games together on a big stage, even though he wasn't as good in the regular season.

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Michigan's coach knew at the

Michigan's coach knew at the beginning of the season that McGary lacked great confidence. He started him off the bench and low minutes because he already knew he had a proven player in Jordan Morgan (who his first 2 years avg 24 mpg). He knew McGary was a project so he gave him some limited minutes so that McGary had to PROVE he was a big time player. Over the course of the season McGary grew confidence and his minutes started to raise. And now on the big stage he is at the pinnacle of his confidence. He is showing his great skill set to the world when it matters most.

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It had nothing to do with

It had nothing to do with confidence. It had more to do with conditioning, seniority and McGary learning to pace himself more. He couldn't go full throttle all the time, or else he'd get in foul trouble and get gassed in less than 5 minutes of action.

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The coach said Mitch was 20

The coach said Mitch was 20 pounds over weight in the beginning of the season and that's why his numbers look like they do. Once he got in shape his numbers went up and you are now seeing what a in shape McGary can do. He said he could only stay on the floor for little spurts at a time because of the shape he was in. He is a lotto pick now but he has said he doesn't think he is anywhere near ready to go so he is coming back, we will see if he sticks to that though because we have heard that line before

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The confidence

This is a red flag for me. Some of you are saying that he wasn't playing well because his confidence wasn't high. I want you to listen to what you're saying. "HE ISN'T PLAYING WELL BECUASE HIS CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH IN ILLEGE BASKETBALL!" So what happens when he gets in the NBA and his confidence isn't high. He's going to be terrible according to some of you

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talking about conditioning

there was a play when he first blocked the shot started running as the first on offense then they missed he runned again to defense and blocked the shot, man he is better now and i agree with Siggy on his scouting on McGary and he was a top 10 player on high school some people forget his Mid Range shot he was that good on high school and he showed in college games too, i think his Motor, BB IQ, Great Hands, rebounding skills are that good and he can bang up with the bigs he is not afraid of being physical and he is not pushed back that easily

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NBA Teams are often tricked....

I personally love McGary's game. But I love it in context which is what NBA teams lose sight of when evaluating players. McGary has great hands...a wonderful feel for the game...an improving face up jump shot...and is extremely physical. He literally catches everything within range.

HOWEVER (Stephen A. voice)

The NBA must evaluate these things in context. McGary is a 20 year old freshman who will be 21 in June. That is relevant because his production must be viewed through that prism. Also, he has only recently begun to produce. The question must be asked....is he on a really good run (hot streak) or is this who he is? This looks a lot like what happened to Tyrus Thomas when he basically was an unknown and then had a hot tournament and stole money based upon that.

Now, to his credit McGary can be a solid pro but his recent play must be put into context. His entire body of work must be evaluated. He has had a great 6 games but they played almost 40 games total this year. Is he the 6 game sample size or is he the guy who showed up in the other 34 games?

NBA teams need to do their homework and not jump on the bandwagon. This is how bad draft choices are made.

Note: this is a weak draft so if he wants to go this would be the perfect draft. If he comes back and reverts back to the mean of who he is....that combined with a more talented crop could mean a loss in money due to being drafted lower.

Be very careful NBA teams with this guy

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I agree that McGary should

I agree that McGary should probably go pro, based on how hot his stock is right now, but I don't know how high he'll end up going. I agree with a lot that has been said, but he still hasn't shown a great low post game, he still isn't quite an above average athlete by NBA terms, and he hasn't been doing this for that long span of time. I think he can be a decent pro, but we'll see if he can really end up in the lottery. This title game will be huge if he plays well and they win, it might seal the deal if not he might end up coming back.

PS Is Tim Hardaway considered a draft pick at all? It seems like everytime I watch Michigan, he plays horrible and misses a bunch of wide open jump shots.

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Top 10 pick for sure

McGrary is a top 10 draft pick, in the 6-8 range in this year’s draft for these reasons.

Weak draft – As usual for the draft these days, hard to imagine more than five or so guys that will be able to make an impact on a team. Talent wise, McGary fits in the range of Anthony Bennett, Otto Porter, and Alex Len.

McGary has a talent set that is a good fit for the NBA. He’s athletic for his size, has an array of skills, good BBall IQ, and will outwork his opponent. In college, you can gang up on the inside, NBA is more isolated and gives an advantage to those of McGary’s skill set. In the age of pick and roll bball, McGary will thrive.

What about his lack of productivity early in the season? Who cares. The only way NBA teams with high draft picks will rise among the elite is if they take a chance on potential impact players in the draft. Even with a limited resume, McGary has shown than he has big impact ability that is rare to find in the draft. For my money, it is more likely McGary turns into an impact player over Alex Len. With a few exceptions (Miami of course), NBA teams rise through the draft or through trades, not through free agency. Some team will take a chance on McGary in the 6-8 range and they are right to do so.

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^^ While I agree McGary has

^^ While I agree McGary has just as good as chance of succeeding as Len, no chance he gets drafted before him. Too many GMs are still obsessed with measurements and Len wins that in Spades.

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McGary is a better passer

McGary is a better passer than Len but that is the only clear category I would put him ahead of Alex. Alex Len shoots close to 70% from the foul line and McGary shoots under 50%. They are both great rebounders but I would give the slight edge to Len in that department. Len is also the better shot blocker. I like the potential of McGary but Alex Len is a potential top 5 pick and I only see McGary as a fringe lottery talent at this point.

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Len vs Mcg

This is a reply to both Sewok and Lastword. Len disappears too much in games. I like his skill level a lot, he just doesn’t have the mentality to take over games. If he is not an impact player at the college level (i.e. you don’t notice him on the court at times), I think his ceiling will be limited at the league and as a result he’ll be drafted after McGary. If I’m a GM of one of those teams drafting around pick 5, I want a player who is going to make their presence felt on the court and will make the team better with energy and enthusiasm.

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hmmm

I see the hands and the hustle thats nice reaaaaal nice. I like the vision too but Im not sure that rlates to 'great feel' theres more to it than that to me. I dunno though if I could pick him higher than like 109th and Id better have a real desperate need. He hustles but do you think he go. the guys I see people comparing him too are main options that command attention. In the tournamnt I dont think he Was high on souting reports and he seized the moment. If he was on Duke I dont think he could fill Plumlees role tbh and match the productivity. Maybe he has a post game but I aint seen it at all. His frre thro percentage doesnt say much for his touch away from the rim. David Lee was a stud for Florida.

If Im him Id coome out for sure like everyone says while the irons hot. However NBA workouts could expose him imo.

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