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Mirotic trade (why its a big possibility)

SwatLakeCity
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Mirotic trade (why its a big possibility)

As we all know, at the beginning of the season, Nikola Mirotic was puched in the face by teammate Bobby Portis in an altercation they had during the pre-season. First of all, no one likes to be punched in the face, especially by a teammate. That's when Portis crossed the line, and because of that Mirotic wanted out. (And I can't say I blame him, I wouldn't want to be punched in the face intentionally by a teammate either.) That's why he wants out. He wants to be in an environment where he won't be intentionally punched in the face by a teammate. And he's willing to waive his no-trade clause to get in that environment.

As I know of there are only two teams that have real interest in Mirotic, the Pistons and the Jazz. Before I go into what I believe the offers will most likely be, I need to refresh your memory on what Mirotic is capable of.

Last season he got really hot and he started for them and he was able to average 17 pts and 7 boards/game. He didn't really pop up defensively, (which is expected because he's not a defensive player) I don't believe he was that good at assists either last year. What I really want to highlight is scoring ability and where he gets those points from. He is a stretch 4, meaning he can shoot from 3 with effictiveness and consistency. But he is at best a pedestrian defender. You can't stick him on a good 4 and expect him to defend him well. He won't and that 4 will go off. For that reason I would not put him up against Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis, Al Horford and those other really good 4's in the league. But you can put him up against weaker 4's, who aren't too good at defense. Both the Pistons and the Jazz need that scoring ability of his because of the Centers they have.

Both of them have rim-protecting centers and both of those teams are built around those players. (Drummond for the Pistons and Gobert for the Jazz. Gobert may be out right but they know what he is capable of because of what he did last season.) Unfortunately, he, Gobert, hasn't played much this season because of 2 injuries. Both were inadvertant, and was caused by an opponenent and a teammate, Derrick Favors, respectively. He has healed completely from the first one caused by an opponent, and he should soon be healed by the second one caused by Favors. Both of them will take approxamately a month to heal. Interesting they were both to the same leg muscle but different leg. Gobert should be completely healed from his second leg injury this Saturday, but he might not play until the latter end of next week, like Friday or Saturday against the Knicks and Clippers respectively. (Personally, I think it will be next Friday's game against the Knicks, but we will see) My point is, is that he should be healed from all his injuries completely by next week, and therefore we will be able to see what we know he is capable of.

Both of those Centers need a stretch 4 to play next to them so they can have the space to do what they do best in the paint. They can't have a small center next to them, like the Jazz have in Derrick Favors. Nor can they have small 4 who is really a 3 like the Pistons have in Tobias Harris. They need a bigger 4 who can at least somewhat defend because of his height. Most 4's in today's league are between 6'9 and 7'. Except for the outlier, Porzingis, who is 7'3. So they would need someone that is between 6'9 and 7'0, the bigger the better. Mirotic, falls right in the middle at 6'10. (he may have grown an inch or two since he's been in the league, but that I am not quite sure of) But he also has the wingspan where he can somewhat defend the bigger 4's (7' and taller) Both the Jazz and Pistons really like the fact that he is a stretch 4 and his scoring ability. And they would know fit really well next to a center like Gobert or Drummond.

As I pointed out earlier this morning, Mirotic has a bigger contract worth just over 12 mil that he signed over the offseason. Its only 2 years, (meaning it would expire in the 2019 offseason), so the length is pretty small, but the money is big, meaning the teams that would be interested in trading for him would be ones that have a good enough player to not only match his contract but also can play with the Bulls.

I'll look at both teams individually and highlight the one or two players that could potentially be involved in this trade. First, the Pistons. They will not trade Drummond, Harris, Bradley, or Jackson, but all other players are up for grabs. The two players I want to highlight are Jon Leuer, and Boban Marjanovic. Both of them aren't good players at all and one, Leuer, is out with an injury to his ankle that may require surgery. Leuer has a contract worth 10.497 mil for 3 years (expiring 2020 offseason) and Boban is worth 7 mil for 2 years (expiring 2019 offseason) Because they are both not very good players they would have to be traded with a player that has a lot of potential but a small contract, and a draft pick, to match value. Luckily the Pistons, have such a player in Stanley Johnson. However, he wasn't doing well defensively before the new year, and recently is available to play but hasn't played yet since a minor injury that he must have sustained just before Christmas or the new year or afterward, but it was minor. But he was never doing well defensively. The Bulls, however already have a starting 3, Holiday, who is doing very well defensively while Lavine has been out! (Lavine is expected to make his season debut this Saturday.) So the Bulls are probably very interested in seeing how well Holiday does when Lavine returns. And if he continues to do well, they won't want to receive Johnson because he would just overstate what they already have in Holiday and Valentine, who has done very well in spot backup minutes so far. The Pistons also could offer up their draft pick (mid twenties and likely to stay in that range).

So to summarize the Pistons offer is likely to be Boban, Johnson, and draft pick for Mirotic or Leuer, Johnson, and draft pick for Mirotic, (Personally, I think it will be Boban and Johnson and draft pick for Mirotic.)

The Jazz's offer is likely to be Favors for Mirotic. Favors is a small center, but doesn't operate well with Gobert as I have already alluded to. He is worth 12 mil that will expire this offseason. So if the Bulls aren't too floored with Boban or Leuer, which they shouldn't be, then they would be with Favors because of how well he did during Gobert's first injury. (early december, when the Jazz went on a 6 game win streak and looked unstoppable until they went up against the Rockets. (They did lose to Thunder just beforehand, but that was because of a late 4th quarter run they had that game. The Jazz were doing well for most of that game until the 4th quarter.) Boban and Leuer have no such track record and therefore can't be trusted. However, the Bulls will likely demand a draft pick since they know they are still developing around Lavine and Markannen. The Jazz don't have a draft pick to offer up (other then their own) because of a trade they made in the offseason for Ricky Rubio. They can't trade their own because they are likely to be a lottery team with a pick around 8-14 and it would not be wise to trade that pick. Which means they would have to find a third team. But they would have to act quickly since the trade deadline is coming up beginning of next month. (They only have just a little over 3 weeks to find that third team.) Its posibble, but its essential to act quickly.

Personally, I think the Jazz have best offer of the two, but they will need to find a third team quickly who is willing to give up a draft pick. This team is likely to be a playoff team that could realistically finish in the top 6 of their respective conference. I don't think the other 18 teams would be interested in trading their draft pick because it would be in the lottery or in the mid-teens which could net them a very serviceable player, but you never know. This means the Jazz should be talking to the Rockets, Warriors, Spurs, Wolves, Blazers, Thunder, Celtics, Raptors, Cavs, Heat, Wizards, and Bucks. (The Pistons are another team that the Jazz could talk to but they won't because they would want Mirotic)

Favors and draft pick (from other team) to Bulls for Mirotic

Boban and draft pick to Bulls for Mirotic.

Take your pick, Bulls, but I think you'll be very happy with Favors insead of Boban. Which means the Jazz will have to act quickly to find that third team. So pay attention to rumors, and we will see which trade pops up just before the trade deadline. But this is a trade that I personally think will definitely happen because it would benefit both teams. It just depends on if the Jazz can act fast enough, or if the Bulls are willing to accept Boban, Johnson and a draft pick. The Bulls will likely also become desperate to trade Mirotic because he will insist that it will happen just so he can get out of the environment that he is in right now with Portis.


The Goat
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That's a long post. It's easy

That's a long post. It's easy - a trade is a high possibility cos he asked to go!

SwatLakeCity
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That's the easy way to say

That's the easy way to say it, you're right, but I wanted to explain more than that from a Pistons and Jazz perspective.

Robb_C
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He currently has the power to

He currently has the power to veto any trade.. I believe after this season Chicago can pick up his option and the Veto option in his contract is void..

Chicago should wait till the season is over to move him.

GBee
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I completely disagree. The

I completely disagree. The time to trade is now. They need to buck the trend of the FO waiting too long, exhausting the value of an asset and sell high, striking while the iron is hot. Nikola is one bad streak away from lowering his value again. Mirotic has been playing extremely well. He was one of the main reasons why they went on their win streak and are competitive in games. I honestly don't see his value getting much higher than it is now. Players who will be unrestricted tend to have less value too because they're only under contract for a year. At least if a team acquires him this year, he can help either push a team into the playoffs or help with this year's playoff run, while also having an opportunity to talk long-term negotations should he pan out well for the rest of this year.

Also, the Portis story is a non-issue. It's water under the bridge. In fact, Mirotic and Portis have shown very good chemistry on the court together. He is no longer giving the Bulls an ultimatum that either he or Portis goes. I think this is important to note because teams and fans of these teams will use that as an excuse to lower his value, citing that he HAS to go because he demanded it.

As for the two proposals in the OP, I'd take whichever deal has the higher pick, which will likely be the Jazz, unless I'm missing something and they don't have their pick this year. I don't care for Favors and he wouldn't be a player to grow along with the Bulls core. At best, he'd just be a stopgap at C until they can grab their C of the future, which would hopefully come with this year's pick.

The Blazers have also expressed interest in Mirotic as well, but they'd likely try to attach one of their horrible long term contracts, which should be an immediate no.

Robb_C
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Valid Points, But trades are

Valid Points, But trades are never made through the media hype machine.. I'd be very surprised if Niko ends up in Utah. If Jimmy Butler wasnt moved during the deadline id be extremely surprised to see Nikola moved unless it was an absolute no brainer.

Waiting to move Jimmy paid off, I believe Chicago is in no Rush to move Niko.. Theyre merely creating a market for him the same way they did Butler.. What message is this sending to the rest of the league? We are letting our player strongarm us into dealing him?? They lose all the leverage entertaining this idea.

GBee
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The Butler trade was a

The Butler trade was a totally different circumstance because making that decision determined the entire course of the franchise. It was still debatable up until that deal whether the Bulls were gonna give it another go building around Butler. The Butler trade set in motion the rebuild that was long overdue, hence renouncing Rondo and buying out D.Wade and not looking to replace them with anything of note. They wouldn't be in a position to sell high on assets if it wasn't for that deal.

Mirotic is no longer demanding to be traded and has actually enjoyed playing for the Bulls so far this year despite the Portis drama. Honestly, I've never seen him this comfortable. If they don't sell high now then they risk missing the boat. I don't want to see them do that again after they missed so many opportunities to do so in recent years, ultimately ending up with cents on the dollar. Regardless of whether he's offered in a deal, Mirotic still has the power to veto this year, but the Bulls gave that to him. That's not exactly strong arming either. If they don't trade him before the deadline, I'll be disappointed but it'd be par for the course for this regime. Forget leverage, if they wait until the offseason, they lose value with him being unrestricted.

Robb_C
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Chicago isnt going to trade

Chicago isnt going to trade Niko during the season, they want a pick for him.. why trade him during the season with him improving a roster and possibly messing with the pick selection.. If Chicago was in a win now mode the deadline move makes sense. The Bulls still have the team option on Niko.

GBee
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Your logic is strange. The

Your logic is strange. The Bulls are BETTER and more competitive with Mirotic on the roster. The goal is to get worse, not better this year to improve the odds of their own pick while also capitalizing on his value and likely acquiring another pick. His value as an asset is currently high, probably higher than it'll ever be, most certainly higher than it'll be going into a season where he'd become an unrestricted FA. It's not that difficult to understand.

Robb_C
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You misunderstood what I

You misunderstood what I meant, Bulls want a 1st rounder for Niko..

Niko gets traded it improves his new team

Bulls newly acquired pick loses value as a result.

My logic makes perfect sense, Why give a rising asset away for an asset in return that you know will depreciate as a result.. All this bs about him being hot so you gotta trade him is crap, GMs and Scouts know exactly the player he is.. Nikola confidence is starting to bud and his play improved.

Ive met Nikola, Hes a very humble person but you can tell hes very timid.. I think Bobby Portis getting into a fight with him actually was good for him and put some hair on his chest so to speak.

dmo21
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picks

That logic works both ways though. The pick they traded for will depreciate as Miroctic will make that team better. But, Chicago's own pick will become higher as they will get worse after they trade him away.

The thing is though, if I was Chicago I'd rather have my pick get better and the traded pick depreciate over the alternative. I lean this way as you're probably trading him to a playoff caliber team, so their pick isn't going to be that high to begin with. Moving 5 spots for a non lottery pick isn't a huge deal as you're mostly relying on your scouting there and picking from whoever is left. I bet there have been lots of instances where the guy you pick at 15 would still have been available at 20. But with a high pick (like Chicago's own), there is a vast difference if you move up 5 spots within the lottery as there always seems to be a top X amount of players each year. If you can move into that range, then you made a huge change. This is why teams tank.

Robb_C
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I really dont see the bulls

I really dont see the bulls falling off much.. Lavine is back so the Bulls have some really good depth right now and could make some noise after the break.

My rule of thumb is this, Team Culture cant be rebuilt and can mess with the confidence of players.. This Bulls team competes the Front Office knows this and in my opinion isnt going to hinder the team culture for the sake of a chance at a 1st pick.

I believe Mirotic and the Bulls would be wise waiting to deal him.. Small Markets get desperate towards free agency trying to compete with larger markets. The Bulls could probably land a 1st rounder for Mirotic when teams know what player needs need to be addressed.. I believe draft picks get traded when GMs are desperate to save their own ass.. Picks are obviously prized but only if the GM is still around.

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Mirotic effect

Mirotic has definitely affected the winning in Chicago since he came back. They are 13-6 with him, which means they are 4-21 without him. That's a drastic difference right there.

Yes, Lavine has come back, but you never know how much he will affect winning. All he does is score. He should add a couple wins, but I don't think he will have the affect that Mirotic has had.

Robb_C
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The Bulls lacked a scorer..

The Bulls lacked a scorer.. Lauri is still learning and has to pick his spots, Nikola has been playing with a ton of confidence.. Lavine could give the same results if hes ready.

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His contract is showing as a

His contract is showing as a Team Option worth $12.5 million in Bulls favour for next season on Hoopshype. This could make him a very attractive target for a team looking for a short term fix and they then get a nice trading chip or can waive him in the summer.

The Bulls could also get a nice package for him in the summer as teams will be looking to get under luxury tax level around draft time and could easily get at least one First rounder in any deal.

dmo21
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CHI/UTA

Do you think Chicago would rather have Burks instead of Favors? They already have a gluttony of big men and Burks is a serviceable guard who will be under contract for another year. I see Favors getting traded to a team who wants a big man rental for the rest of the year.

GBee
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I'd say no thanks. The Bulls

I'd say no thanks. The Bulls will extend Lavine and will have Holiday through next year. I'll take Favors' expiring instead. Hell, I'd trade for him and waive him if that's what he wants.

r377
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As a pistons fan I didn't

As a pistons fan I didn't mind Ilyasova and wouldn't mind him or Marcus morris back with us.

Ilyasova is only 30 (4 yrs older than Mirotic). He has a $6mill contract vs Mirotic $12.5 mill.

Wouldn't Ilyasova be better value ? The hawks are rebuilding so I am sure he would be available for a draft pick/youth...

Endlessknight
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Is Ilyasova only 30?

Is Ilyasova only 30?

OhCanada-
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Ersan Iyasova is 30, Arsen

Ersan Iyasova is 30, Arsen Ilyasov is 33. Same person.

dmo21
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woah!

I had no clue to what you were referring too so I Googled it. Never heard about this story before until today! That's some grade A conspiracy stuff right there.

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