[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

A few weeks ago, I posted about a guy named Kevin Hetrick, who did a statistical analysis of the combine measurements and testing to see if there was any correlation to future success in the NBA. It seemed like there was a good response. Now that a lot of the testing is in, I would like to have a discussion about some of his correlations and this year’s draft class. http://hardwoodparoxysm.com/

  Obviously, you don’t pick a player purely on measurements and athletic testing, but his analysis does add valuable insights into some of the 2014 prospects. Here are a few of my observations.

  Point Guards

  According to his findings, there is a strong rate of success when teams draft an upperclassman point guard who got at least an 11 seconds on the agility time and a 3.2 on the 3/4 court run. The only one who hits all three criteria was a player who many had pegged as a potential sleeper: DeAndre Kane.

 No point guard hit the elite numbers of 3.15 agility and 30 inches standing vertical. Players who hit those normally have success in the NBA, with the potential for stardom. The closest? DeAndre Kane had a 3.16 agility and 31.5 standing vertical. LaVine was only .04 seconds off of the agility from making it.

  Shooting Guards

 According to his findings, no player has ever succeeded in the NBA as a shooting guard with an agility time above 11.2, regardless of their other athletic scores. He said that he thinks the reason is that you have to be at least that agile to play defense in the NBA. That does not bode well for CJ Wilcox, Lamar Patterson, Markel Brown, or Jordan Adams.

  Combined scores of at least a 6’9” wingspan, 30” no step vert, and 35” step vert normally indicated star potential in shooting guards. CJ Wilcox (for reasons listed above his numbers may be irrelevant), PJ Hairston, and Marcus Smart (if you count him as a shooting guard). PJ Hairston might end up being the steal of this draft.

  Small Forward

 According to Petrick, there is no direct correlation between athletic testing and success in the NBA for small forwards. However, as a general rule, taller players have a higher probability of success. There are a lot of 6’7”-6’8” small forwards in this draft, which would probably be average size for an NBA small forward. Here are a few that stood tall: TJ Warren, Dwight Powell (if he is a small forward), and DeAndre Daniels.

 Power Forward

 The only correlation he found for power forwards (other than that strength helps rebounding) is that the higher no step and max verticals indicate better potential for defense. Cory Jefferson, Aaron Gordon (if you consider him a power forward, i don’t), Patrick Young, Jarnell Stokes (even though he is carrying at least 260 pounds), and Noah Vonleh all tested well in both vertical jumping methods.

  Centers

 The best correlation he found for center success in the NBA was speed. The faster the center, the better the chance he has to succeed. No true centers tested particularly well in speed. He also found that centers who combine at least a 3.3 3/4 court speed and 9’2” standing reach almost always have success in the NBA, with the potential for stardom. There are no players who combine both measurements in this draft combine. The closest was Noah Vonleh (if he can play center), who had a 3.28 speed and 9′ standing reach (and might be still growing).

  Other comments

 Jahii Carson tested well in all athletic testing except the lane agility, which may indicate that, although he can pack a punch offensively, he won’t be able to stay in front of his man defensively. Aaron Brooks 2.0.

 Dante Exum was 1/2” off in his max vertical from making the elite athelticism status for shooting guards, which is what he was listed at.

  Elfrid Payton did not test poorly, but he was simply above average. He was a player who was tauted as having elite athleticism, but without that, I’m not sure he has sufficient skills to make it in the NBA.

  Finally, there is something fishy going on with the verticals. McBuckets does not have a 36 inch vertical. It seems like all of the verticals are a little higher this year than they were they last few years. Someone commented last year that it might be that when a player does his standing reach as the base measurement for his vertical, the players may not be extending all the way as a way to look more athletic. I might be wrong, but I would love for someone to try to do some analysis of this and find out if this rumor is true.

[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

 I should have asked … are there any players I missed or anyone that stood out to you based on Hetrick’s findings? 

[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

 I should have asked … are there any players I missed or anyone that stood out to you based on Hetrick’s findings? 

[Land of GrantParticipant]

Cool. I like seeing these numbers actually get analyzed rather than just messed around.

[Land of GrantParticipant]

Cool. I like seeing these numbers actually get analyzed rather than just messed around.

[OhCanada-Participant]

 Great read. Nice to see Kane get some love, he definitely deserves it with the season he had despite being older.

[OhCanada-Participant]

 Great read. Nice to see Kane get some love, he definitely deserves it with the season he had despite being older.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 Exum and Smart had good showings.  Point guards with size and athleticism really help a team.

Jarnell Stokes had a very good showing.  Any reason why he shouldn’t go in the first round?

DeAndre Daniels had great measurements except for his vertical.

Good measurements for Cleanthony Early.  I think he goes in the 15-25 range.

I can see Napier going ahead of Tyler Ennis.

Gary Harris doesn’t do it for me.

Aaron Craft should get drafted.  

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 Exum and Smart had good showings.  Point guards with size and athleticism really help a team.

Jarnell Stokes had a very good showing.  Any reason why he shouldn’t go in the first round?

DeAndre Daniels had great measurements except for his vertical.

Good measurements for Cleanthony Early.  I think he goes in the 15-25 range.

I can see Napier going ahead of Tyler Ennis.

Gary Harris doesn’t do it for me.

Aaron Craft should get drafted.  

[TRC1991Participant]

Cleanthony actually measured smaller than expected, with a less than impressive wingspan

He came in at 6’7” 209 lbs. I thought for sure he’d be closer to 6’8” 220

 

 

[TRC1991Participant]

Cleanthony actually measured smaller than expected, with a less than impressive wingspan

He came in at 6’7” 209 lbs. I thought for sure he’d be closer to 6’8” 220

 

 

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